Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍
2014 QB Class Not That Great
- Thread starter kingtexan
- Start date
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
He's got his own thread further down the page.
Texian
Hall of Fame
I actually see some Aaron Rodgers in David Fales. Very similar paths.
So there's the question. Would Aaron Rodgers be "Aaron Rodgers" if he were selected #1 overall as the starting QB for the, then dysfunctional, SF 49ers?
Would he be "Aaron Rodgers" without that long awkward, camera on him after every pick, invite to Radio City Music Hall?
Would he be "Aaron Rodgers" without knowing he'll be replacing a legend & preparing for it?
Would GreenBay have selected Alex Smith to eventually replace Farve?
So much about these guys future depend on what happens to these guys after the draft. Which is why I'm not too worried about which one we get. As long as we set him up for success, we should be ok. If the team wins a lot of games, threaten a super bowl appearance often enough, we'll call our guy elite. If not, it's Rick Smith's fault for picking a dud
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
TexansFTW
Veteran
I know you just relay and report articles like these as talking points, but just wanted to get your take...
Do you truly believe this?
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
I believe it every down year for QB prospects... and then somebody overdrafts a QB "because even though we all know he's the 47th rated prospect you have to overdraft QBs", and I'm wrong again.
I do believe this this year...
Matt Waldman ‏@MattWaldman
...and I try to listen to guys with real NFL experience, like Greg Gabriel, the author, who's a 30+ year NFL scout.
I don't agree that you have to overdraft a guy because other needy teams will overdraft his position group... dumb is dumb, and it proves out in the long run. That's why the Titans, Jaguars, Vikings all need QBs still, imo. There's a reason why they do it, but I don't think that reason applies to the Texans.
I believe each draft class presents you with quality/depth at certain positions, and good organizations draft into those strengths while poor ones fight it drafting into a class' weaknesses. I think you'll see smart GMs trading up for/drafting WRs & OTs while waiting on S position that's a little thin this year.
I think it's wrong to pay more for less... but that's just me. ( And yes, I don't buy into most of the articles/tweets/opinions I post by any means... try to inform the group with multiple sides of the discussion.)
jradMIT
Veteran
You could argue in the case of Wilson and Kaepernick, that Qb's weren't overdrafted but the wrong qb's were overdrafted. Ponder, Gabbert, Locker are cautionary tales, although I think injuries played a major part in it all, but eventhough those guys were reaches, it doesn't mean that the next set of guys will be reaches. The evaluation methods have to evolve just as fast as the game. The past failures of players don't mean the next set of players will fail. But if they evaluation methods don't change or adjust to take account of these failures, you could very well repeat those mistakes. Its the basis of "we learn more from our failures than our successes"
So you believe had Jacksonville drafted Osweiller & Tennessee drafted Wilson, Tennessee would have won a Super Bowl by now?
Eh..... I think teams should take a more holistic approach when addressing the draft. In 2011, the 49ers took Aldon Smith in the first & Kaepernick in the second. Even though they had Justin Smith & Patrick Willis & Alex Smith already.
There's not another DE/OLB they could have selected in the second round that comes close to the talent they got in Aldon Smith... & Kaepernick appears to be as good as any QB taken in the first round of that draft (Cam Newton) & better than most (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder).
Cincinnati took Aj Green, then Andy Dalton.
Jacksonville, it may have been understandable, since they didn't have a 2nd round pick.
Tennessee could have taken Jj Watt/Nick Fairly/Tyron Smith/Robert Quinn/Nate Solder.... & Tj Yates. Tj may not be their starting QB, but if they got him in the 4th, or 5th, nothing would have been stopping Tennessee from getting Osweiller in the second of 2012... or even Wilson.
TexansFTW
Veteran
No one is saying that. Just cause you don't see a QB as first round talent doesn't mean it's correct or that others don't also, but choose to overdraft them based on need.
You thought that AJ McCarron was a 1st round pick just 3 weeks ago, so not being rude, but maybe you just don't have an eye for QBs, I respect your opinion on the other positions though.
Most people believe that the top QBs are first round talent. They are NOT Andy Daltons being drafted in the first based on need. They are graded out significantly better overall. TB is graded out HIGHER than Cam Newton was.
TJ Yates is a loser bro and we've seen nothing from Brock O. Also, who is to say RusWil would be a Super Bowl champion on any other team? Personally, I don't know if he'd be a successful starter on many other teams in the NFL besides the Hawks.
EDIT: Came off a little rude, I apologize. Editing this so it's not so much attacking as much as disagreeing.
Last edited:
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
New York guy talking about a New York QB. No surprise there.
TexansFTW
Veteran
He's just trying to garner attention through shock value.
I know it seems like I'm madly over the top in love with quarterbacks, but for the record last year I said there were no QBs worthy of a 1st round draft (that included EJ Manuel, and I still stand by that).
Also if it weren't for Sanchez' pre-season injury I don't believe that Geno would have even seen the field his rookie year until statistical elimination from the playoffs.
This article is absolutely hilarious. Does anyone besides me see Trent Richardson/Brandon Weeden all over again? Substitute Trent Richardson for Watkins or Matthews and you get Weeden = Carr and more misery for Browns' fans.
I never believed they were chasing Manziel and I said it was a smokescreen all along. High 5 to myself (although there is still 2 months for me to be wrong).
People were saying Gabbert was a second round talent regardless....
Think. I think Aj McCArron is a first round talent. Never thought he would go in the first.
I believe the "top 3" are first round talents. I believe 3 others are as well. All better than Andy Dalton.
Bridgewater may grade higher than Newton, but Newton had a mid 1st round grade.
The point about Tj & Brock is that Tennessee couldn't have done much worse had they drafted Yates instead of Locker. They may not draft a QB in 2014, but they probably should. Same as Jacksonville.
& my point is exactly that Russell Wilson most likely wouldn't have won a Super Bowl anywhere else. Had Tennessee drafted Watt/Fairley/Quinn/etc... they'd be closer to that team than they are now. Their next QB is going to struggle because they've yet to build a foundation.
No need to apologize to me.
I guess the "people" were wrong. Gabbert hasn't even shown 2nd round talent. And where are you getting that Newton carried a mid 1st grade? From whom?
The top QBs in this class have a) talent and b) production. Teddy Bridgewater has produced more on the collegiate level than Clowney or Robinson. So has Manziel. The notion that these guys are going to be drafted high just because of the premium position they play rings false. If anything, Clowney and Robinson will be drafted on spec.
This QB class may not be as good as 2012. But, it's a lot better than 2010. QB play (and QB coaching) has improved in college football over the past few years, and it has shown in the NFL. 8 good starting QBs have come out of the last 3 drafts. And that could rise if Manuel, Geno Smith, and Glennon take a step forward in 2014. I would be surprised if this class doesn't produce 3 to 4 solid NFL QBs. The trick is finding one of the 3 or 4.
http://walterfootball.com/draft2011bigboard.php
Walterfootball.com for one.
So do the ones at the bottom of this class. Murray & McCarron specifically.
Aj McCarron has produced as much as Bridgewater, but he's on the bottom of this class because of speculation. Their production in their systems is only part of the equation. Their measurables & how they project in the NFL is just as big a part of their "draft stock"
I do not disagree. I just happen to believe Mettenberger, Fales, Murray, & McCarron have just a good a shot at being one of the 3 or 4 as Bridgewater, Manziel, & Bortles.... and a better shot than Derek Carr.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Or is this new information the REAL smokescreen?
This time of year, anything is possible.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Every big board I've ever seen (not mock draft) from 2011 dated in 2011 before the draft had Cam Newton between 11-18, so I agree w/ TK there.
I agree with you on everything else.
Hah, you may be right. Time will tell I suppose.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Very plausible. Remember baby Shanny is the OC there and he wants a very coachable player for that system, because it's a system built to minimize QB mistakes. Carr is a very respectful young man, a hard worker, and grew up talking football with his Dad and brother. After his press conference he stepped down and shook every reporter's hand who attended/asked questions. He's married with a young son who has had to have multiple surgeries to stay alive -- a grown up with some perspective. And he has the better overall arm of the group. At the Senior Bowl he took extra reps every day after practice. Impressive package.
I don't see a baby Shanny/Kubiak volunteering for a Manziel. They hate freelancing.
To be clear, I don't have a problem with where Cam Newton was drafted. There is definitely something special about him.
It would be nice if you could put a check mark next to every point on your "franchise QB prospect checklist", but those guys are extremely rare. Taking Cam first overall was a move from the gut & looks like it's going to work out for Carolina.
The only guy in this draft that gets my gut working like that is Manziel, but he doesn't have Newton's size or Vick's speed, so I'd have a hard time taking him in the top 5. But that's me & I understand everybody is different.
When I look at Bridgewater, I'm trying to see Rivers type success, I'm trying to see McNabb type success... but it's a stretch. I see Aaron Brooks type success. I see Matt Stafford type success.
& it's the same thing I see when I look at Murray, McCarron, Metenberger.
Bridgewater played in a pro system & made the calls at the line... So did Murray, so did McCarron, so did Metenberger. David Fales didn't but not because he couldn't. It's just not the program he came from. Bortles looks every bit as good as Bridgewater. As a coach, I'm asking myself can I win with this kid & unfortunately there are too many of them in this draft that I can answer yes to & Bridgewater has done nothing to separate himself from the pack enough for me to take him with the #1 overall.
Not so much that I pass on a freaky talent like Robinson, or Clowney. Or solid sure fire starters (maybe perennial all-pros) like Mack, or Barr. No way I would pass on Watkins to draft Bridgewater... not when Murray & 3 others I can win with are still on the board.
I don't think I'd pass on Taylor Lewan or Jake Matthews either.
At the same time, I understand that most do not look at these QBs the way I do. Most people don't have the 4 that I mentioned as close to Bridgewater as I do. & that's fine. I understand those guys wanting to use the 1st on Teddy. If I thought like they did, I would too.
Number19
Hall of Fame
I've been hearing something along these lines for almost three weeks now. It's the reason I'm now thinking a trade won't materialize and why I'm re-evaluating my mock.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
It may not even be a case of overdrafting or even overdrafting the wrong QBs.
It may be a case of failing to have the proper team/coaching setup to develop the QB properly. The wrong team and/or the wrong coaching staff could even turn Peyton Manning into Christian Ponder or Ryan Leaf.
OTOH, perhaps in some cases, the right coaching staff can make even a scrub look pretty good. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but his teams consistently make iffy QBs look damned good and then parlayed those QBs into trades and draft choices.
It may not be so much about how good the QB is that we draft but rather about how good OB is at getting the most out of him.
I agree, maybe banking on him being good at what he do more than I should.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Kubiak, the QB guru, really made his reputation not on developing young QBs (Griese) but on getting the most out of older ones: Schaub, Plummer, Steve Young, even Carr (although by the end of the season, that experiment had obviously failed).
The problem is... we don't know if OB really can develop a QB. He had some success in College with McGloin and his latest Penn State Freshman but he can't take credit for Tom Brady. And he hasn't really developed a QB in the Pros.
We can only hope for a perfect storm here.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Need to read to article to understand the methodology/assumptions of the stats/charts/rankings. Even more charts in the article.
2014 Quarterback Draft Class Passing Chart Spectacular
For those who'd rather clothe themselves in statistics versus actually watching game tape.
2014 Quarterback Draft Class Passing Chart Spectacular
...
...
...
...
...
For those who'd rather clothe themselves in statistics versus actually watching game tape.
Those numbers make Bortles look more legit than I thought.
It would be nice if something like this was done for previous draft classes as well.
Another thing. After correcting for level of competition, those numbers confirm what I've felt about McCarron compared to the top three, says I'm pretty much wrong about Murray compared to the top 3 & gives me pause to reconsider Mettenberger in relation to the top 3...... especially considering he was new to the system he played in, compared to Bridgewater & McCarron who had played in their systems at least 3 years.
Well those numbers basically say, that Bridgewater is the most accurate passer and that he is scary good with passes that travel 0-10 yards in the air and a signifcantly worse for passes that travel longer in the air. So deep ball accuracy is a real issue with him, although he is not far off the other big guys. But most passes in the NFL and the bread and butter passes travel 0-15 yards through the air and Bridgewater is clearly the best passer at this range.
And I agree with you, Bortles look better here than I thought. And he is clutch and pretty good against the blitz. Those are all things I value very highly.
Greg, how many "great" QB classes are there? 2012 is looking pretty great. 2004 has 2 or 3 HOFers. 1983 has 3 bona fide HOFs. So draft a QB once every 10 or 20 years, and hope you get one of the great ones?
Overall, 2008 was thought to be a great DL class. 5 of the top 8 picks were d-lineman. 4 of them turned out to be busts. No one knows with certainty what will be a great class before the draft.
And the Texans don't need this to be a great QB class. They just need 1 QB. They have their choice. It's very rare that there's not at least one good QB coming out of a draft. All the Texans have to do is find him. How hard is that?
Number19
Hall of Fame
What immediately jumped out at me was Keith Wenning from Ball State. His overall rank was 15th out of the 18. But if you take his individual rankings in each of the ten categories, he comes in right in the middle at 9. He didn't throw deep often, only 13% of the time, but when he did, he had a 48% completion rating. Bortles had 54%, Bridgewater 51% and Manziel 47%.
His size is not bad at 6'-3", 218 lbs and he seems to have had a pretty good week of practices at the Shrine Game for the west squad.
Someone to look at in the 7th round.
(edit) In the critical 10-19 yd range, he had a decent 64% completion number, which was better than Bridgewater's 62%.
(edit2) I just found (from another thread) that his ball velocity is 56, same as Bortles', so he has decent arm strength.
His size is not bad at 6'-3", 218 lbs and he seems to have had a pretty good week of practices at the Shrine Game for the west squad.
Someone to look at in the 7th round.
(edit) In the critical 10-19 yd range, he had a decent 64% completion number, which was better than Bridgewater's 62%.
(edit2) I just found (from another thread) that his ball velocity is 56, same as Bortles', so he has decent arm strength.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
It's very rare that there's not at least one good QB coming out of a draft. All the Texans have to do is find him. How hard is that?
2002 - 0 current starters but top 5 QBs had 300 starts.
2003 - 1 current +1 former who went to SB
2004 - 3 current starters, would be 4 with Schaub.
2005 - 3 current starters
2006 - 1 current starter
2007 - 0
2008 - 2 current starters, assuming Henne out.
2009 - 1 current starter
2010 - 1 current starter
2011 - 3 current starters, not counting 3 incumbents who may be out
True zeros are rare. So are classes pushing out 5+ long term solid starters.
To say this isn't a great QB class isn't to say that you shouldn't draft a QB in the first round. IMO, he's just saying there aren't any "great" prospects. Not only is there no Andrew Luck, there's no RG3, no Phillip Rivers. But there are a lot of good prospects; Stafford, Ryan, Bradford, Cutler.
We'll probably get three bonafide starters out of this class, maybe four. You've seen my list of 6. I think these guys are most likely to have successful careers as starters.
- McCarron
- Bridgewater
- Murray
- Bortles
- Manziel
- Fales
& there are still guys like Connor Shaw, Jimmy Garopolo, & Zach Mettenberger who may very well turn into a quality starter. There's just no way anyone can point to any one of the guys in this draft & say, "He's going to be a quality NFL starter." Not that I can see anyway.
Whoever we pick (if he's one from this list) will have a much better opportunity to succeed if we fix our OL. I'm sure no one denies that, but the question is how do we do that. Some of us point to our 2010, 2011 line & say "we can do it with an Eric Winston type talent" or with Winston himself. But that OL was great at RB, not very good at protecting the QB & not the OL I'd want to start a rookie behind. That OL was great as long as Schaub got into a rhythm & got the ball out on time. I don't see even the great Teddy Bridgewater operating 3 & 5 step drops as well as Matt Schaub was during that time period.
I'd like to get an elite OT to add to our line, if he plays the left side & pushes Duane to the right, or if he's not ready to take the left & has to play the right, we're better off than we were last year. I like Robinson, Matthews & Lewan, if we got one of those three, Case Keenum would look like a starting QB... or at least there's a good chance he will.
I'd be happy (& excited about our future) if we managed to get Bridgewater then Kouandjio or Moses in the second. But there's a good chance, better than good that neither guy will be there at 2-1. But three of my six QBs will & their chance of being a prolific NFL starter will be better than whoever Cleveland, Jacksonville, or Minnesota takes. If we get Robinson, Matthews, or Lewan in the first.
All my opinion of course.
He wasn't considered a mobile QB to begin with, so I don't take it into consideration much at all. I still think he has a good chance at success, just not better than good like the guys in my list of six. The others show either better accuracy or a much better understanding of ball placement to me.
I also argue he had the best tandem of WRs & a better than average OL to work with.
The Packers had Starr, Favre, & Rodgers.
SF had Montana, Young, now Kaepernick.
Seattle has Russell Wilson.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
I don't see how people can watch mettenburger tape and like what they see. That dude had nfl talent all around him,yet in sec play,he had 13tds and 8 picks. His wrs made lynn swann type catches even on the simplest route. People are enamored with his size and arm,but with all that he was avg at best. Tyler Bray with the same like talent was undrafted.
Number19
Hall of Fame
I hear you. Of course I'm talking defense with our draft, but having the same concerns as you about the OL, where I'm looking is Ju'Wuan James in the 3rd. My understanding is that he has a first round grade on pass protection, but is deficient in run blocking. He lacks strength; and this was shown in his reps at the combine. But he's 6'-6", 311 lbs with 35" arms and 9 7/8" hands. I've targeted him for his ability to pass protect, figuring that his strength can be worked on, given a year or two in the weight room. At 3-65 he may be over drafted by half a round, but I'm not sure he will be there at 4-97, given the value placed on protecting the QB.
DX-TEX
#TomSavageDontCare
Isnt that what most NFL pundits say though? Every QB mentioned this year has the caveat added "If he is in the right system built around him".
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
DX-TEX
#TomSavageDontCare
And the wheel comes full circle and we are back at one.:vincepalm:
Number19
Hall of Fame
Bridgewater - won't make the mistake that costs you the game. With a strong OL, a good running game and a stout defense, is your steady game manager.
Manziel - just keeps gunning, has the highest come back capability. With lesser overall team talent, has the better chance of leading the team to a winning season.
Manziel - just keeps gunning, has the highest come back capability. With lesser overall team talent, has the better chance of leading the team to a winning season.
As long as he's the best athlete on the field. How many times have we seen him play when that was not the case?