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WK 4 Chargers at Texans

Earl34

All Pro
Mills has been good enough to where the Texans have been in games but not be able to close. To do that your offensive line has to be better. And defense can’t give up 80 yards up the damn middle on one drive.
Wait a minute. I don't know how a QB of one of the worst offenses in the NFL while ranking 22nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 26th in yards per completion, 15th in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, eighth in sacks, 29th in QBR and 25th in QB rating can be graded as good enough to keep games close.

Also, until the Chargers game, the defense and special teams are the reasons the Texans have been in games, but not able to close. Even in the Chargers game, besides the two late scoring drives, exactly what did Mills do to keep the game close? Sorry, besides Pierce, nothing about the Texans offense has been good enough.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Wait a minute. I don't know how a QB of one of the worst offenses in the NFL while ranking 22nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 26th in yards per completion, 15th in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, eighth in sacks, 29th in QBR and 25th in QB rating can be graded as good enough to keep games close.

Also, until the Chargers game, the defense and special teams are the reasons the Texans have been in games, but not able to close. Even in the Chargers game, besides the two late scoring drives, exactly what did Mills do to keep the game close? Sorry, besides Pierce, nothing about the Texans offense has been good enough.
I guess they meant even with this offense below average output, we still had chances to win at least three of those games.
Coaching got in the way in weeks 1-2 and Mills got in the way I’m weeks 3-4.
 

djohn2oo8

All Pro
Wait a minute. I don't know how a QB of one of the worst offenses in the NFL while ranking 22nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 26th in yards per completion, 15th in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, eighth in sacks, 29th in QBR and 25th in QB rating can be graded as good enough to keep games close.

Also, until the Chargers game, the defense and special teams are the reasons the Texans have been in games, but not able to close. Even in the Chargers game, besides the two late scoring drives, exactly what did Mills do to keep the game close? Sorry, besides Pierce, nothing about the Texans offense has been good enough.
Texans are 4th in the league with passes dropped. An OL that doesn’t protect and commits a ton of false starts. An OC who apparently just found out how predictable his calls are. Don’t act like this is on Mills. He brought them back against the Chargers and they have been in all of their games. Also, Receivers who don’t catch or get separation. Don’t humor me with screenshots of what you think the receivers are doing to get open because they are doing nothing. And Pierce didn’t get going until this last game. So yes, he has been keeping them in games.

DESPITE predictable playcalling using Rex Freaking Burkhead as a main weapon lol
 

djohn2oo8

All Pro
Wait a minute. I don't know how a QB of one of the worst offenses in the NFL while ranking 22nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 26th in yards per completion, 15th in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, eighth in sacks, 29th in QBR and 25th in QB rating can be graded as good enough to keep games close.

Also, until the Chargers game, the defense and special teams are the reasons the Texans have been in games, but not able to close. Even in the Chargers game, besides the two late scoring drives, exactly what did Mills do to keep the game close? Sorry, besides Pierce, nothing about the Texans offense has been good enough.
And I know you didn’t say the defense has been good enough when Stingley has been getting picked a part and the run defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Run defense was terrible even before the Chargers game.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
And I know you didn’t say the defense has been good enough when Stingley has been getting picked a part and the run defense can’t stop a nosebleed. Run defense was terrible even before the Chargers game.
Stingley is getting a baptism by fire. He's going to be a fine pro if that foot injury doesn't ruin his career. The run defense has been horrible and the LB play over all has been horrid. I'm afraid this yr the dye has been cast when it comes to the run game. I cant remember which poster that said he feared a team just running the ball down the Texans throats. That's exactly what has happened. This is why I'm for resetting the market to sign Roquan Smith to hopefully pair with Harris next yr. Add a fatty either through FA or the draft and that part of the puzzle will be solved.

BTW, listening to Lovie's son say the scheme is sound is sickening. Yes the scheme is sound if you have the players to run the scheme. The Texans dont have these types of players, so the scheme isn't sound and changes need to be made to fit the players he's got available. Particularly his LB corps.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
BTW, listening to Lovie's son say the scheme is sound is sickening. Yes the scheme is sound if you have the players to run the scheme. The Texans dont have these types of players, so the scheme isn't sound and changes need to be made to fit the players he's got available. Particularly his LB corps.
Agreed. Last I checked the Texans don’t have prime Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs available to them.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Texans are 4th in the league with passes dropped. An OL that doesn’t protect and commits a ton of false starts. An OC who apparently just found out how predictable his calls are. Don’t act like this is on Mills. He brought them back against the Chargers and they have been in all of their games. Also, Receivers who don’t catch or get separation. Don’t humor me with screenshots of what you think the receivers are doing to get open because they are doing nothing. And Pierce didn’t get going until this last game. So yes, he has been keeping them in games.

DESPITE predictable playcalling using Rex Freaking Burkhead as a main weapon lol
Read my post again and the sentence "Besides Pierce", nothing about this offense has been good enough". You feel Mills has played well enough and has contributed to keeping the games close. I disagree. I think his current performance is part of the offensive problems and excluding the Chargers' game, his play is not the reason for the close games.

He led an offense that couldn't convert four 3rd and 1s. How the heck is that good enough or contributing to keeping games close? Because those 3rd downs not being converted gets the punter on the field to pin the opposing team deep in their territory? LMAO. You really want to argue that Mills 2022 performances has been good enough?
 
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Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
Texans are 4th in the league with passes dropped. An OL that doesn’t protect and commits a ton of false starts. An OC who apparently just found out how predictable his calls are. Don’t act like this is on Mills. He brought them back against the Chargers and they have been in all of their games. Also, Receivers who don’t catch or get separation. Don’t humor me with screenshots of what you think the receivers are doing to get open because they are doing nothing. And Pierce didn’t get going until this last game. So yes, he has been keeping them in games.

DESPITE predictable playcalling using Rex Freaking Burkhead as a main weapon lol
Mills has a 28.4 QBR. That's a number that takes a lot more into account than completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. For an example, a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 2, carries more weight than a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 8.

So at 28.4, where 50 is average, Mills is doing little, if anything, to keep this team in games. Mills led them to -10 yards of offense on the final 3 drives of the game last week, and that included being gifted the ball at the LA 16 on the fumbled KO.

And I don't know where you're getting your stats from but according to Pro Football Reference there's 10 teams with more dropped passes than the Texans, which would not make them 4th.

Screenshot_20221007-161443~2.png
 

OptimisticTexan

2022 Rebuilding Block 2 / Go Texans
Wait a minute. I don't know how a QB of one of the worst offenses in the NFL while ranking 22nd in the NFL in completion percentage, 19th in passing yards, 26th in yards per completion, 15th in passing touchdowns, sixth in interceptions, eighth in sacks, 29th in QBR and 25th in QB rating can be graded as good enough to keep games close.

Also, until the Chargers game, the defense and special teams are the reasons the Texans have been in games, but not able to close. Even in the Chargers game, besides the two late scoring drives, exactly what did Mills do to keep the game close? Sorry, besides Pierce, nothing about the Texans offense has been good enough.
Unless every game was 0-0 going into the 4th quarter….my guess is the offense played a part in keeping those games close since the defense has failed to put any points on the board.
 
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Earl34

All Pro
Unless every game was 0-0 going into the 4th quarter….my guess is the offense played a part in keeping those games close since the defense has failed to put any points on the board.
But it's not the defense's job to put points on the board. So, let me see if I get this new TT logic. If the Texans defense didn't give up a score and the Texans offense has not scored or move the ball effectively, the offense gets credit for keeping the game close?

What if a game is tied 0-0 in the 4th quarter. The defense intercepts the ball in the opponent's territory. The Texans offense needs one first down to get in position for a game winning FG. On first down, they rushed for one yard. On 2nd down, a sack. On 3rd down, a 5 yard checkdown. On 4th down, they punt.

In that scenario the offense still gets credit for keeping the game close? Why? Because they didn't turn the ball over and punted the ball?
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Folks just need to give up on this year, nothing good is going to come of this year except next year's draft and some new coaches.

Just sit back and enjoy what little there is to enjoy, and that's watching an excellent rookie class this year trying to make some waves. If ole Casino gives us a couple more drafts like this and a real HC, it'll be a different story.

Which, of course, is just another IF in a long line of IFs and Maybes. LOL
 

Earl34

All Pro
Mills has a 28.4 QBR. That's a number that takes a lot more into account than completion percentage, yards, TD and INT. For an example, a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 2, carries more weight than a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 8.

So at 28.4, where 50 is average, Mills is doing little, if anything, to keep this team in games. Mills led them to -10 yards of offense on the final 3 drives of the game last week, and that included being gifted the ball at the LA 16 on the fumbled KO.

And I don't know where you're getting your stats from but according to Pro Football Reference there's 10 teams with more dropped passes than the Texans, which would not make them 4th.

View attachment 10803
There have been some questionable narratives on this forum. Trying to argue a QB with a 28.4 QBR is playing good enough or keeping games close with a 28.4 QBR is nuts.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
There have been some questionable narratives on this forum. Trying to argue a QB with a 28.4 QBR is playing good enough or keeping games close with a 28.4 QBR is nuts.
Personally, I hate QBR. It's not a stat. It's subjective. Some people, who don't even know what the play was supposed to be, look at the tape and grade it relative to whether an "average" QB would have been able to make the play work.

They do this without knowing the play call or the reads or what the QB was instructed to do in that situation.

It's bull.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Personally, I hate QBR. It's not a stat. It's subjective. Some people, who don't even know what the play was supposed to be, look at the tape and grade it relative to whether an "average" QB would have been able to make the play work.

They do this without knowing the play call or the reads or what the QB was instructed to do in that situation.

It's bull.
Do you feel the same about PFF grades, or dvoa (or whatever it’s called for individual players)?

I look at the grades & relative rank among a peer group. However they come up with the grade the question is how does it compare to the eye test.

QBR matches what I see more than passer rating. & I believe that is the gist of the conversation
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
Personally, I hate QBR. It's not a stat. It's subjective. Some people, who don't even know what the play was supposed to be, look at the tape and grade it relative to whether an "average" QB would have been able to make the play work.

They do this without knowing the play call or the reads or what the QB was instructed to do in that situation.

It's bull.
It's no more bull than any other stat. To me, passer rating doesn't tell you a whole lot.

I don't know all the factors that go into QBR, or DVOA, which Mills is also 28th in that BTW, but I know it involves more than just what your completion percentage, yards and TD/INT are. Like I said, a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 2 is better than a 5 yard completion on 3rd and 8, regardless of what the play was supposed to be. QBR indicates to me that Mills isn't making very many of those positive plays, which is also in line with what my eyes see.

And, of course, it isn't all just on him. This whole team sucks. But Mills is a part of that suck. And I think most of us can agree that with better play at the QB position this year, hell, just average play, this team at the very least would not still be winless.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
Do you feel the same about PFF grades, or dvoa (or whatever it’s called for individual players)?

I look at the grades & relative rank among a peer group. However they come up with the grade the question is how does it compare to the eye test.

QBR matches what I see more than passer rating. & I believe that is the gist of the conversation
I have the same issue with PFF Grades. It's the same sort of thing, but for more than just the QB.

The thing about the eye test is... is the eye sufficiently educated to accurately assess what it's seeing? It's very easy for a player to look totally confused and discombobulated and like a complete idiot when that player is doing exactly what he was supposed to do, but someone else's screw-up has left them in the lurch.

Unless we have the playbook and know the play call, we can't really know who has messed up and who did what they were supposed to do.

We know the team sucks against the run, and we know that our offense isn't clicking the way it should be. QBR and PFF aren't going to help identify who the real culprits are.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I have the same issue with PFF Grades. It's the same sort of thing, but for more than just the QB.

The thing about the eye test is... is the eye sufficiently educated to accurately assess what it's seeing? It's very easy for a player to look totally confused and discombobulated and like a complete idiot when that player is doing exactly what he was supposed to do, but someone else's screw-up has left them in the lurch.

Unless we have the playbook and know the play call, we can't really know who has messed up and who did what they were supposed to do.

We know the team sucks against the run, and we know that our offense isn't clicking the way it should be. QBR and PFF aren't going to help identify who the real culprits are.
Agreed.

I'm not saying he sucks because he has a low QBR. I'm saying he's not playing well & the QBR reflects that.

I believe he's learning a new system. I believe the rest of the team is learning a new system. & like you said the rest of the team isn't particularly good at anything apart from the QB.

Have you seen anything to make you think he's getting better, or will get better?
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
Agreed.

I'm not saying he sucks because he has a low QBR. I'm saying he's not playing well & the QBR reflects that.

I believe he's learning a new system. I believe the rest of the team is learning a new system. & like you said the rest of the team isn't particularly good at anything apart from the QB.

Have you seen anything to make you think he's getting better, or will get better?
I think, from early on in the pre-season, I said I was concerned with rumors and tweets that were saying that Davis Mills not being aggressive enough and that he was checking everything down. We're seeing that in the regular season.

I hope, and I have NO evidence to support this, is that Pep is taking extra time to work with Davis on specific aspects of his game. It looks to me like Pep is treating these games as though they were practice games to work on specific things with DM in life-fire situations. With some types of performance, you break things down so that you can build them up correctly and in the process you initially get worse. They used to warn us about this when I was studying at the Musician's Institute. You're learning better ways to do things, the right ways to do things, but you might go back home and if you jam with someone, you sound like a rank beginner. But once everything has come together and sorted itself out in your mind and your hands, you're much, much better.

I hope this is part of the learning experience that Pep is putting DM through and that it's going to start coming together soon.

I know there's also an argument to be made that we don't have the best set of receivers for him or the best line to protect him, and there's some truth in that, but when he's had opportunities in the 4th quarter to step up and be the man, he's flipped his hips smoothly and sprinted away from the opportunity.

So, I'm just waiting it out and hoping for him to improve. He has made throws here and there that were pretty good, so I know he can do it, but that doesn't mean he can do it consistently or under pressure.
 

OptimisticTexan

2022 Rebuilding Block 2 / Go Texans
Pep goes uptempo…..Mills looks like the QB from the end of last season. Pep goes to whatever offense he runs under most conditions and Mills has regressed. Again, it doesn’t absolve Mills from some bad plays and decisions, but it does give “most” of us a glimpse at what he’s capable of.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I think, from early on in the pre-season, I said I was concerned with rumors and tweets that were saying that Davis Mills not being aggressive enough and that he was checking everything down. We're seeing that in the regular season.

I hope, and I have NO evidence to support this, is that Pep is taking extra time to work with Davis on specific aspects of his game. It looks to me like Pep is treating these games as though they were practice games to work on specific things with DM in life-fire situations. With some types of performance, you break things down so that you can build them up correctly and in the process you initially get worse. They used to warn us about this when I was studying at the Musician's Institute. You're learning better ways to do things, the right ways to do things, but you might go back home and if you jam with someone, you sound like a rank beginner. But once everything has come together and sorted itself out in your mind and your hands, you're much, much better.

I hope this is part of the learning experience that Pep is putting DM through and that it's going to start coming together soon.

I know there's also an argument to be made that we don't have the best set of receivers for him or the best line to protect him, and there's some truth in that, but when he's had opportunities in the 4th quarter to step up and be the man, he's flipped his hips smoothly and sprinted away from the opportunity.

So, I'm just waiting it out and hoping for him to improve. He has made throws here and there that were pretty good, so I know he can do it, but that doesn't mean he can do it consistently or under pressure.
I’m thinking the same thing. He was just getting comfortable reading defenses at the end of last season & that’s thru Kelly’s offense.

Now he’s relating to those defenses through Pep’s offense.

Looks to me like he’s getting more comfortable. More confident in what he’s doing. I haven’t seen any all22 or coaches film so it’s hard to say if he’s making good decisions or not. But I have only seen one no doubt about stupid shouldn’t have forced it throw.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
I’m thinking the same thing. He was just getting comfortable reading defenses at the end of last season & that’s thru Kelly’s offense.

Now he’s relating to those defenses through Pep’s offense.

Looks to me like he’s getting more comfortable. More confident in what he’s doing. I haven’t seen any all22 or coaches film so it’s hard to say if he’s making good decisions or not. But I have only seen one no doubt about stupid shouldn’t have forced it throw.
Don’t need all of that to come to the conclusion of bad decisions. Not going through progressions, over/under throwing your receivers and not stepping up in the pocket has nothing to do with Pep’s offense. That’s all on Mills who has said as much in every last one of his pressers.
What I blame Pep for is some of his piss poor play calls on key downs. Trotting Burkhead out there on darn near every third down. Not being creative enough with his schemes ( no misdirection for example). Finally killing Mills and the offense’s rhythm.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Do you feel the same about PFF grades, or dvoa (or whatever it’s called for individual players)?

I look at the grades & relative rank among a peer group. However they come up with the grade the question is how does it compare to the eye test.

QBR matches what I see more than passer rating. & I believe that is the gist of the conversation
PFF/DVOA are part of the puzzle. Not a be all end all.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I’m watching the game again.

Mills looked pretty good on the drive to end the 3rd Qtr & the 1st drive of the 4th Qtr. Both 90 yards, both ended with passing TDs. The 1st was a nicely designed pass to Burkhead. The 2nd was a bullet to Cooks after the deep bomb to Nico. 5 plays 93 yards
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I’m watching the game again.

Mills looked pretty good on the drive to end the 3rd Qtr & the 1st drive of the 4th Qtr. Both 90 yards, both ended with passing TDs. The 1st was a nicely designed pass to Burkhead. The 2nd was a bullet to Cooks after the deep bomb to Nico. 5 plays 93 yards
Notice that neither was uptempo.
Except for one play, the others took more than 33 seconds each.
The second one only seems fast because of the long pass play.
 

Earl34

All Pro
I’m watching the game again.

Mills looked pretty good on the drive to end the 3rd Qtr & the 1st drive of the 4th Qtr. Both 90 yards, both ended with passing TDs. The 1st was a nicely designed pass to Burkhead. The 2nd was a bullet to Cooks after the deep bomb to Nico. 5 plays 93 yards
Everyone agrees he looked great on those two drives. Unfortunately, the Texans had 11 drives and what did the offense do before and after those two drives.
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
Pep needs to self scout and look at himself as well. Something worked well for a quarter. Why was that? What did he himself do differently when down by 20+ points that freed up Davis and the O. I am worried Lovie wants it kept too conservative as a defense minded coach. Let's see today if they learned anything when they had it clicking
 

Earl34

All Pro
Pep needs to self scout and look at himself as well. Something worked well for a quarter. Why was that? What did he himself do differently when down by 20+ points that freed up Davis and the O. I am worried Lovie wants it kept too conservative as a defense minded coach. Let's see today if they learned anything when they had it clicking
Agree. Self-scouting might be another issue with this offense. For example, what is the percentage that regardless of down and distance, when Burkhead is in the game, that it's a pass?
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
I saw it somewhere, too lazy to look, but it was over 60% pass with Burkhead in, and slightly over 40% with Pierce in.
I think they've been worried about Pierce in pass pro, but he's been stepping up. He is not afraid to slam into a blitzer; he just needs to make sure he identifies them correctly.

And I love the idea of getting Pierce the ball in the open field and letting him do his thing.
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I think they've been worried about Pierce in pass pro, but he's been stepping up. He is not afraid to slam into a blitzer; he just needs to make sure he identifies them correctly.

And I love the idea of getting Pierce the ball in the open field and letting him do his thing.
If only when they do this he is not standing still, hit him on the move so he can make the first guy miss and have some mojo built up. Seems he gets it and then has to start going which does not work as he is a stationary target
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Notice that neither was uptempo.
Except for one play, the others took more than 33 seconds each.
The second one only seems fast because of the long pass play.
Yeah I was thinking about that. Someone here keeps talking about how much better Mills has been this season in uptempo situations. But I don’t remember many this season. Unfortunately I haven’t the will to go back & watch the other games.

But watching these drives I noticed there was a huddle after every play. They got to the LOS with around 18 seconds left on the play clock.

It might have seemed uptempo because there was more completed passes & less penalties
 
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76Texan

Hall of Fame
Yeah I was thinking about that. Someone here keeps talking about how much better Mills has been this season in uptempo situations. But I don’t remember many this season. Unfortunately I haven’t the will to go back & watch the other games.

But watching these drives I noticed there was a huddle after every play. They got to the LOS with around 18 seconds left on the play.

It might have seemed uptempo because there was more completed passes & less penalties
It's just urban myth, I can tell you that much. :brando:
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Everyone agrees he looked great on those two drives. Unfortunately, the Texans had 11 drives and what did the offense do before and after those two drives.
by pointing out those two drives I’m not ignoring the others

What do you think happened in those 9 possessions?

there was one drive they got themselves in 1st & 20. I got to thinking how common it is for teams, even bad teams, to overcome 1st & 20 but not this team. & a lot of that is the QB.

I’ll end on this. The two drives after the scoring drives Mills looked good. The team did not convert even after STs spotted them in the red zone
 


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