Support and keep Texans Talk going. Make a donation here.

WK 4 Chargers at Texans

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
only saw it live, didn’t notice his arm was hit, if it was as seen on replay it must have been glancing blow because the ball rotated with nice spin and 10 yards over target. Would seem to me the ball would be fluttering and short if impacted by contact. Regardless it was thrown into coverage. Or maybe replay will say something different 😂
The ball wasn't hit and I'm not sure his arm was... but he was hit enough that he couldn't step into and follow through
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Jags -7 means they are favored to win by 7 points. Basically, when the game kicks off, the score is Texans 7 - Jags 0.
The O/U 44.5 number is what Vegas thinks the combined score will be. So if the final is Jags 30 - Texans 10, that combined is under 44.5. So you can bet the Over or the Under.
The line no has now moved to 7.5

That's a significant move, for those who are not familiar with the Vegas lines/odds.

And BTW, before the season, the line/odds for the Jaguars game was just 3 points.

3 points is what the oddsmaker (the house) normally gives to a team for having to play the game away from home.
Home field advantage = 3 points.
So basically, at the beginning of the season, Vegas put the two teams at the same level.

But now the Jags had moved up a notch plus.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Everybody shows flashes. Well, maybe not Justin Fields, but still. You don’t make it to the league without some skill. But flashes aren’t going to get you much done. The Texans had a total of -10 yards on their last 3 possessions. That included being gifted the ball deep in LA territory on the fumbled KO that they could only turn into a FG. No flashes in any of those final 3 possessions.
Exactly. There are times where Mills will throw a couple of passes where he sees the coverage, makes a quick decision and throws a great downfield pass. It's almost enough to think that he is going to get on a roll and then a 3 and out always follows. I guess, key words, "it's almost enough".
 

edo783

Hall of Fame
The line no has now moved to 7.5

That's a significant move, for those who are not familiar with the Vegas lines/odds.

And BTW, before the season, the line/odds for the Jaguars game was just 3 points.

3 points is what the oddsmaker (the house) normally gives to a team for having to play the game away from home.
Home field advantage = 3 points.
So basically, at the beginning of the season, Vegas put the two teams at the same level.

But now the Jags had moved up a notch plus.
Vegas also changes the spread when too much money is coming in on one side versus the other. For the most part, they really don't care who wins or loses, they get paid either way. But, if too much money comes in on that side and it happening go that way, they could lose money. For the most part, they make about 18% on every bet and if things go like they want, its good for the house.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
The ball wasn't hit and I'm not sure his arm was... but he was hit enough that he couldn't step into and follow through
Just had time to review the tape and clearly ball was out and on track before contact. Doesn’t matter if he couldn’t step through at that point because ball had left his hand, unobstructed. He overthrew the route, into coverage, a perfect spiral to the defender. Play reviewed. Now if you guys want to make excuses the interception is not on him go ahead and have at it. I try to be as impartial and objective as possible. Boo me like the refs, who by the way called a good game.

:cow:
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Making no excuses here, just going by what I saw live and what the announcer said. I didn't slow it down frame by frame but I did see the pressure.
 

Texan Asylum

Hall of Fame
Pick the Texans with the point spread (+7)

If the Texans lose by 7, it's a push.

If they lose by fewer than 7 points or win the game, you win the bet.
They would say that the Texans cover the spread in this instance.

The over/under is the total points scored by the two teams.
What do you mean by ‘it’s a push’?

Thanks for the info!
 

otisbean

Veteran
Contributor's Club
only saw it live, didn’t notice his arm was hit, if it was as seen on replay it must have been glancing blow because the ball rotated with nice spin and 10 yards over target. Would seem to me the ball would be fluttering and short if impacted by contact. Regardless it was thrown into coverage. Or maybe replay will say something different 😂
He was hit, not his arm. He had a guy right in his face on release effecting his follow through which caused the ball to sail
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Mills has had two road games to one home so far:


Two INT's in the last two games you cannot put on Mills.

One was a tipped ball that went right to the defender and the other he was getting smashed in the face and the throw sailed high.

The OL hasn't done him many favors either, they have been atrocious, particularly on the left side. Kenyon Green has been the main culprit, but Tunsil has had a few WTF moments himself. while neither of the guys who have started at center have played worth a damn,
 
Last edited:
Two INT's in the last two games you cannot put on Mills.

One was a tipped ball that went right to the defender and the other he was getting smashed in the face and the throw sailed high.

The OL hasn't done him many favors either, they have been atrocious, particularly on the left side. Kenyon Green has been the main culprit, but Tunsil has had a few WTF moments himself. while neither of the guys who have started at center have played worth a damn,
Mills 2nd INT at the end of the game was not on him at all. Line got blown up right away yet again and it was a miracle heave on 4th down. The 1st one he faced pressure also, but he sailed it regardless so he owns that one. As it were, the stat line was ok in the end, but his QB rating is over 100 I believe without that 2nd end-of-game pick.
 
Last edited:

Texansballer74

The Marine
Mills interception against the Bears is technically on him. He tried to force it to freaking Burkhead who was actually covered pretty good. Yes it was tipped but he should’ve went to a wide open Cooks or Collins.
The interception Sunday is on him as well. You still have to make those type of throws. I’ve seen so many quarterbacks make that throw, even this board most hated quarterback made plenty of throws while getting hit.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Mills interception against the Bears is technically on him. He tried to force it to freaking Burkhead who was actually covered pretty good. Yes it was tipped but he should’ve went to a wide open Cooks or Collins.
The interception Sunday is on him as well. You still have to make those type of throws. I’ve seen so many quarterbacks make that throw, even this board most hated quarterback made plenty of throws while getting hit.
On the INT against the Bears. Posters miss that Mills started looking to the right, had a WR open to his right, held the ball and then threw left. At the end of the day, if he throws right, I don't think he throws an INT. I don't get why he wouldn't share the blame for that INT.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
On the INT against the Bears. Posters miss that Mills started looking to the right, had a WR open to his right, held the ball and then threw left. At the end of the day, if he throws right, I don't think he throws an INT. I don't get why he wouldn't share the blame for that INT.
Agreed. He predetermined where that throw was going and he shouldn't have done that. However if the ball hadn't gotten tipped it wouldn't have been intercepted.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I like the comprehensive stats that also take into account subjective measures like QBR.

I like Mills. He impressed me last season, even in the first bunch of games he played terrible in.

He’s still got time to pull out a good season, but my objective measure is six bad games, using QBR or something similar. He’s got 4 bad games now, so it’s not looking good.

I’ll make excuses for him with the best of them. But I can’t overlook 6 bad games in a 17 game season in his 2nd season.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I like the comprehensive stats that also take into account subjective measures like QBR.

I like Mills. He impressed me last season, even in the first bunch of games he played terrible in.

He’s still got time to pull out a good season, but my objective measure is six bad games, using QBR or something similar. He’s got 4 bad games now, so it’s not looking good.

I’ll make excuses for him with the best of them. But I can’t overlook 6 bad games in a 17 game season in his 2nd season.
Really it's the unclutch gene that bothers me the most. Then I remind myself of how little football he's played.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Really it's the unclutch gene that bothers me the most. Then I remind myself of how little football he's played.
What fascinate me is that people didn't realize how Brady and Montana were clutch in college.

The game was different then.
But both of them were clutch the same.

The scouting was lacking is all.
It's nowhere near sophisticated as today.
Even though there are still misses today, but it seems more toward the QB position is so highly regarded.
 

OptimisticTexan

2022 Rebuilding Block 2 / Go Texans
Has Mills ever been clutch in college?
11 total starts is a very small window to make an assessment. He now has 15 NFL starts under his belt with 2 different coaching staffs. Had 5 very decent starts in 2021 and we're awaiting for the next big start in 2022.
 
Last edited:

santo

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Mills hasn’t even reached Matt Schaub’s level and I don’t think he will. Hopefully we go into next season with a FA vet and have a rookie learning on the sideline.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Mills hasn’t even reached Matt Schaub’s level and I don’t think he will. Hopefully we go into next season with a FA vet and have a rookie learning on the sideline.
Without a decent O-line, WRs, TEs and a OC who actually knows what they are doing, what would a good QB do on the Texans? Is Mills the answer? Not looking like it so far, but that's besides the point. The Texans are trying to drive a car without any gas.
 
11 total starts is a very small window to make an assessment. He now has 15 NFL starts under his belt with 2 different coaching staffs. Had 5 very decent starts in 2021 and we're awaiting for the next big start in 2022.
I would argue Mills has had 2 decent starts so far this year. 99.3 passer rating in Week 1 (10th ranked PFF QB), and would have been over 100 against the Chargers if it wasn't the forced 4th down heave late in the 4th, where the line got blown up right away. Sure, his play was wildly inconsistent, but stats wise they were more than 'decent'.
 
Last edited:

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I would argue Mills has had 2 decent starts so far this year. 99.3 passer rating in Week 1 (10th ranked PFF QB), and would have been over 100 against the Chargers if it wasn't the forced 4th down heave late in the 4th, where the line got blown up right away. Sure, his play was wildly inconsistent, but stats wise they were more that 'decent'.
Decent stretches, but VERY inconsistent. He talks like he does not get shook up, but turnovers and dropped passes and 4th quarter seem to tighten him up versus loosen him up like the top guys. I am starting to sour. Was thinking Pep would get him more consistent. Actually, the more we lose, the less that is on the line, maybe that will free him up. Anyway, give him the season to mature and make a judgement. In that third quarter, he was smoking hot, only missed passes were drops. Did Pep open it up, or Chargers play soft?? Pep has to find that secret sauce and let the offense play versus be so darn constrained. For a tall guy, it seems he gets tipped balls a lot too at VERY bad times, probably just a Texan jinx.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB

Earl34

All Pro
I would argue Mills has had 2 decent starts so far this year. 99.3 passer rating in Week 1 (10th ranked PFF QB), and would have been over 100 against the Chargers if it wasn't the forced 4th down heave late in the 4th, where the line got blown up right away. Sure, his play was wildly inconsistent, but stats wise they were more that 'decent'.
When critiquing a QB, you should check more than just his passer rating. Also check his QBR for those games.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
When critiquing a QB, you should check more than just his passer rating. Also check his QBR for those games.
To be fair, he said he would form his argument that way. Not that he didn’t look at his QBR.


The old eye test will tell you more than either. Mills has not been good for a full 60 min in a game yet
I’m with you emotionally. His gaffs have been at the most perfect inoportune times.

He has not put together 60 minutes, I agree. He has not been clutch in clutch moments. & that sours me more than anything.

I’m trying to lay off defending him. But he’s a young QB & this is what we expect from young QBs. This is a crappy team with a crappy offense which we all expected.

The deck is stacked against him.

Not saying you in particular are not doing this, but all we can do is sit back & watch how this develops
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Just had time to review the tape and clearly ball was out and on track before contact. Doesn’t matter if he couldn’t step through at that point because ball had left his hand, unobstructed. He overthrew the route, into coverage, a perfect spiral to the defender. Play reviewed. Now if you guys want to make excuses the interception is not on him go ahead and have at it. I try to be as impartial and objective as possible. Boo me like the refs, who by the way called a good game.

:cow:
If you're talking about his int against the chargers..

Lol, have you EVER thrown a football or ball in your life bro? Mills' arm was definitely not hit before he released the ball, but it was certainly hit after the release........which matters just as much. Baseball coaches don't spend countless hours coaching pitchers on their release points and their arm follow thru for nothing. The step thru and arm follow thru are absolutely critical to an accurate throw........especially on balls you're trying to throw on a rope. For a football in particualar, the spin on the ball comes from primarily from the wrist and has only a little to do with the accuracy actually.

In the video, you can clearly see the defender reaching for Mills arm right before he releases. & though he was able to step through a little and actually release it, he was not able to follow thru with his arm on the downward motion needed to bring the ball down..which is TEXTBOOK for why that particular throw came out high & resulted in an overthrow. Hell the announcer chick said he was hit as he threw it man.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
Matt Schaub was a 4 year vet by the time he got here
Schaub was on the bench his first 3 years, and that's where Mills would have been on a decent team.
Also check his QBR for those games.
No one even knows what the formula is for QBR. I do know that it takes rushing yards by QBs into account. A minus for Mills. Also garbage time stats are downgraded. That will hurt Mills. Mills will not be a QBR darling.
 
Last edited:

Earl34

All Pro
The old eye test will tell you more than either. Mills has not been good for a full 60 min in a game yet
Thinking about this. We are seeing some of the same issues as last year's offense. However, last year, Mills would have a quarter, half or even game(s) that made us see progress. This year, it has been more of a series here and there, but not even a solid quarter of work.

Against the Chargers he made plays on the 9 play, 87 yard TD drive in the 3rd quarter and then the 6 plays, 93 yards drive in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, he can build off of those two series.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Thinking about this. We are seeing some of the same issues as last year's offense. However, last year, Mills would have a quarter, half or even game(s) that made us see progress. This year, it has been more of a series here and there, but not even a solid quarter of work.

Against the Chargers he made plays on the 9 play, 87 yard TD drive in the 3rd quarter and then the 6 plays, 93 yards drive in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, he can build off of those two series.
I've just never seen such stark black and white inconsistency from a qb............ which to me speaks to something else. He either looks great..or he looks terrible..indecisive etc...Alot has been made about how he's should be comfortable with this offense b/c its similar to what he ran at Stanford..Perhaps the hot and cold can be explained by that. The amalgamation of what he's comfy with from Stanford and what Pep & Lovie want to incorporate into the offense is poor. When he's looking good, they're running packages of the Stanford stuff that he is very familiar with. When he's looking terrible its b/c they've gone to that package of plays that Lovie & Pep want.....& he's not as familiar with that package.
 

Earl34

All Pro
I've just never seen such stark black and white inconsistency from a qb............ which to me speaks to something else. He either looks great..or he looks terrible..indecisive etc...Alot has been made about how he's should be comfortable with this offense b/c its similar to what he ran at Stanford..Perhaps the hot and cold can be explained by that. The amalgamation of what he's comfy with from Stanford and what Pep & Lovie want to incorporate into the offense is poor. When he's looking good, they're running packages of the Stanford stuff that he is very familiar with. When he's looking terrible its b/c they've gone to that package of plays that Lovie & Pep want.....& he's not as familiar with that package.
Good points and when he's uncomfortable whether with the OL play or the play call, his mechanics are off, he is late coming off his first read or immediately looking for the checkdown aka Rex Burkhead. Right now, there just isn't any consistency with his decision making.
 
Last edited:

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Thinking about this. We are seeing some of the same issues as last year's offense. However, last year, Mills would have a quarter, half or even game(s) that made us see progress. This year, it has been more of a series here and there, but not even a solid quarter of work.

Against the Chargers he made plays on the 9 play, 87 yard TD drive in the 3rd quarter and then the 6 plays, 93 yards drive in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, he can build off of those two series.
I addressed this in the Mills thread... there is 1 huge difference between last year and this. He has no one to learn from and no time to watch it done successfully.
 


Top