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What's your plan for QB next season?

Many have gone with one...what percentage have been successful?

We went to the playoffs with this stat line at QB last year:

14GP 59%comp 2957 YDS 15TD 16INT 30 carries, 131 Rushing yards 2TDs

Not great, right?

You'd have to hope for a top-10 all time rookie QB performance to exceed it.
It is gamble no matter which direction you go in. Ive seen the Colts becoming highly successful going that route.

The Seahawks struck gold with a rookie quarterback.

The Cowboys are the latest successful story with their rookie quarterback.

So why can't we think positive for a change around every Texans forum. We are always looking at the negative aspect. Why can't we have a successful story at that position? Im just saying.
 
Interesting stats. I'm curious about the "Total Film Grade" portion and how they are judging the QB's. They have Evans and Webb rated a 70 and Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer at 79. So I'm curious what they are looking at. To me, Evans has as much, and maybe even more, potential based on the film I watched (Pitt game and ND game) as any QB in this draft! I'm not sure why he is flying so far under the radar and not getting much attention at all. I have to assume it's because he only played 1 yr at Va.Tech. I was hoping the Texans would get Romo and draft Evans in the 4th to develop, but I guess that's out the window now. If Evans goes to the right team that will develop him he could turn out to be the best of this QB class in a few years. My guess for the Texans now is they take either Mahomes or Trubisky if they are there at #25. Not sure what they think of the other QB's in the 1st.
I like Evans as a prospect, too.
I'm willing to invest 3 picks in this draft for the QB position.

Trubisky or Mahomes.
Then Beathard and Evans.

The last two guys have value;
I would take either one of them in the fourth instead of Savage (based on what I see in college.)

Beathard runs a pro system.
Evans is more of a project, but I like what I saw from him as well.
 
Many have gone with one...what percentage have been successful?

We went to the playoffs with this stat line at QB last year:

14GP 59%comp 2957 YDS 15TD 16INT 30 carries, 131 Rushing yards 2TDs

Not great, right?

You'd have to hope for a top-10 all time rookie QB performance to exceed it.

Kinda puts things into perspective.
 
I like Evans as a prospect, too.
I'm willing to invest 3 picks in this draft for the QB position.

Trubisky or Mahomes.
Then Beathard and Evans.

The last two guys have value;
I would take either one of them in the fourth instead of Savage (based on what I see in college.)

Beathard runs a pro system.
Evans is more of a project, but I like what I saw from him as well.

People looking for the "next Dak" should be looking at Evans. Physically they are about the same size (Dak= 6-2, 230 and Evans= 6-3, 235) and stats wise (college) they are also close. The big difference is that Dak played his SR year and Jerrod didn't. I think that's what's causing him to fly under the radar. Jerrod will need more time to sit and develop. Dak was more or less "thrown in to the deep end of the pool" as a rookie.

I don't think the Texans will draft 3 QB's in this draft. Not with all the other holes they have to fill. I do see them trying to get either Mahomes or Trubisky in the 1st rd. As for Beathard, I really don't know much about him and haven't seen any film on him at all. He could be on their radar in the later rds if they don't get Mahomes or Trubisky.
 
Interesting stats. I'm curious about the "Total Film Grade" portion and how they are judging the QB's. They have Evans and Webb rated a 70 and Mahomes, Watson, and Kizer at 79. So I'm curious what they are looking at. To me, Evans has as much, and maybe even more, potential based on the film I watched (Pitt game and ND game) as any QB in this draft! I'm not sure why he is flying so far under the radar and not getting much attention at all. I have to assume it's because he only played 1 yr at Va.Tech. I was hoping the Texans would get Romo and draft Evans in the 4th to develop, but I guess that's out the window now. If Evans goes to the right team that will develop him he could turn out to be the best of this QB class in a few years. My guess for the Texans now is they take either Mahomes or Trubisky if they are there at #25. Not sure what they think of the other QB's in the 1st.

I didn't even notice that spreadsheet until you mentioned the grades. Prettt interesting.
 
These are his exact words. I decipher it as him basically saying he will not start a rookie at that position.

“I think that there’s no substitute for experience,” O’Brien said, via ESPN.com. “So, I think it’s hard to ask a guy to come in straight from college and Day One he’s a starter on your team. But I know that there are some really good quarterbacks in this draft that we’re looking at, and we’ve met with a lot of them. We’re excited about continuing to get to know them. But, I just think for me as a general rule, that’s tough to start them as a Day One guy.”
A slightly edited form of this comment by O'Brien is also quoted in the Chronicle, March 30th. Posting this I realized it was the same interview being reported.
 
It is gamble no matter which direction you go in. Ive seen the Colts becoming highly successful going that route.

The Seahawks struck gold with a rookie quarterback.

The Cowboys are the latest successful story with their rookie quarterback.

So why can't we think positive for a change around every Texans forum. We are always looking at the negative aspect. Why can't we have a successful story at that position? Im just saying.
Colts had a top prospect with two #1 overall picks and struck gold twice. For the record, both Manning and Luck had lower completion % than Oz last season as rookies.

Seahawks took a 3rd round flyer and got lucky. They had zero intention at draft time of starting Wilson as a rookie.

Cowboys took a 4th round flyer and got lucky. They had zero intention at draft time of starting Prescott as a rookie.

Colts had top picks and solid prospects.
We don't have even a top-10 pick, and you're comparing other things that were never planned as "drafting to start".

This isn't a positive/negative thing - This is reality. Rookie QBs are a HUGE gamble, and we don't even have an advantageous pick.
 
Colts had a top prospect with two #1 overall picks and struck gold twice. For the record, both Manning and Luck had lower completion % than Oz last season as rookies.

Seahawks took a 3rd round flyer and got lucky. They had zero intention at draft time of starting Wilson as a rookie.

Cowboys took a 4th round flyer and got lucky. They had zero intention at draft time of starting Prescott as a rookie.

Colts had top picks and solid prospects.
We don't have even a top-10 pick, and you're comparing other things that were never planned as "drafting to start".

This isn't a positive/negative thing - This is reality. Rookie QBs are a HUGE gamble, and we don't even have an advantageous pick.


That is all it takes. Just like i said its a gamble that worked for some and didn't work for others. Sitting a rookie for years doesn't work out all the times either. We have struck out twice with Mallett and now Brock. We've tried with veteran quarterbacks ( Fitzpatrick and Hoyer) and guess what, that gamble didnt pay dividends either.

So why not throw a rookie in their and see if it works. You will never truly know if you don't give it a shot.
 
That is all it takes. Just like i said its a gamble that worked for some and didn't work for others. Sitting a rookie for years doesn't work out all the times either. We have struck out twice with Mallett and now Brock. We've tried with veteran quarterbacks ( Fitzpatrick and Hoyer) and guess what, that gamble didnt pay dividends either.

So why not throw a rookie in their and see if it works. You will never truly know if you don't give it a shot
.

Didn't the Texans just do this with a QB?
 
Oh, yeah, my plan for QB next year is

1) wait and see that they do in free agency, be underwhelmed and criticize that
(so dumping bad Qb and worse QB good, having to pay a 2018 2nd round pick not so much)
2) wait and see what they do in the draft and criticize that
3) wait and see the pre-season and claim the "other" guy or guys are better than the starter
4) wait and see the starter screw-up even once and repeat #3
5) wait for the end of a disappointing season will criticize all of the Qbs because none of them will actually be good enough.

I am leaving out the fire everyone including Toro and the owner part though
 
Sorry I was overly focused on the "throw a QB out there and see what he got versus the "rookie" part, which is worse to me not better.

The Seahawks and Cowboys don't think its the worst idea. The Colts most definitely doesn't think it's a bad idea either. The Titans, Jaguars and a few other teams are set at that position as well. They went with the rookie quarterback starting on day one route as well.
 
The Seahawks and Cowboys don't think its the worst idea. The Colts most definitely doesn't think it's a bad idea either. The Titans, Jaguars and a few other teams are set at that position as well. They went with the rookie quarterback starting on day one route as well.

The Seahawks & Cowboys were not planning on starting rookie QBs. It happened due to unfortunate circumstances in Dallas & a shrewd coach believing what his eyes were telling him in Seattle.

Same thing could happen with O'b, we don't know. It's not an easy thing to do. & we're looking to defend our 1st place status, neither Dallas or Seattle were in that position.

For all we know if we draft Cj Beathard & he looks like the real deal, the team gravitates to him, & he assumes the leader role, O'b may very well start him.

All he said was it's not an easy thing to do (when winning is the goal) & the kid is going to have to be special if he is to earn the starting role day 1.
 
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I just hope for an honest competition in training camp. Everything I've read in the media indicates that QB1 is Savage's to lose.

I sure hope there'll be an honest QB competition in training camp. It was ridiculous to have just given the starting job to Osweiler when it was obvious early on that he wasn't the best QB on the team.
 
The Seahawks and Cowboys don't think its the worst idea. The Colts most definitely doesn't think it's a bad idea either. The Titans, Jaguars and a few other teams are set at that position as well. They went with the rookie quarterback starting on day one route as well.

At least in your wording you are confusing trying to get lucky with a plan. Picking a rookie and giving him a fair chance to compete is very different than picking whatever random rookie at 25 or later and blindly giving him the job no matter what.
 
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I like Kizer and I think he has the biggest upside. Is he a finished product? No, but how many are coming out ? Personally, I don't think savage can beat out Weeden. The could draft Kizer, he sit the bench just like Culpepper, Brees,Palmer,Rivers, and even Rogers, then take over next year. If one of the other qbs play well, someone signs them, texans get a pick.
 
I like Kizer and I think he has the biggest upside. Is he a finished product? No, but how many are coming out ? Personally, I don't think savage can beat out Weeden. The could draft Kizer, he sit the bench just like Culpepper, Brees,Palmer,Rivers, and even Rogers, then take over next year. If one of the other qbs play well, someone signs them, texans get a pick.

I don't at all worry about a QBs ability to come in and play well as a rookie. All I care about is if the guy has the mental ability to grow into his physical attributes and learn the NFL game such that he's a top 10-15 QB. I would love to get the next Rodgers, but right now, all I want is a QB with promise who makes watching the Texans actually enjoyable and not frustrating.
 
Good read. The following quote interested me:
The great Bill Walsh said once, “The hardest thing to do in football is to find coaches that can coach the quarterback, and it’s even harder to find ones that can evaluate them.”
Since we have neither, I think our evaluation process should be simplified to identify the traits that they're capable of from the all time great's.

brady.jpg montana.jpg

Great hair. The clear winner?

beathard.jpg CJ Beathard. I predict at least as much success using this method as our current one.
 
The Seahawks and Cowboys don't think its the worst idea. The Colts most definitely doesn't think it's a bad idea either. The Titans, Jaguars and a few other teams are set at that position as well. They went with the rookie quarterback starting on day one route as well.

TK already addressed the Seattle/Dallas situations, which were the farthest thing in the world from "let's draft this QB and let him start as a rookie".

But the Colts? 1:1 pick. Tits? 1:2 pick. Bucs? 1:1 pick. Jags? 1:3 pick (who is looking really bad)

It's apples to oranges with where the Texans have been picking at 16th, 21st and now 25th.
 
TK already addressed the Seattle/Dallas situations, which were the farthest thing in the world from "let's draft this QB and let him start as a rookie".

But the Colts? 1:1 pick. Tits? 1:2 pick. Bucs? 1:1 pick. Jags? 1:3 pick (who is looking really bad)

It's apples to oranges with where the Texans have been picking at 16th, 21st and now 25th.

Neither Mariota or Bortles were planned to start day 1. The Titans started Fitzpatrick & the Jags started Henne. It wasn't until they felt a winning season was out of reach with their starters that they decided it was time their rookies start taking their lumps.

If you want to win, which I don't know what the 2-14 Colts were thinking, most teams will go with a veteran QB over a talented rookie. Case Keenum over Jared Goff, Sam Bradford over Carson Wentz, Trevor Semian over Paxton Lynch, Tony Romo over Dak Prescott are the most recent examples.
 
Good read. The following quote interested me:

Since we have neither, I think our evaluation process should be simplified to identify the traits that they're capable of from the all time great's.

View attachment 1443 View attachment 1444

Great hair. The clear winner?

View attachment 1445 CJ Beathard. I predict at least as much success using this method as our current one.

patrick-mahomes-headshot.jpg


idonno:
 
I've been trying to avoid watching anything from Trubisky, Mahommes, Watson... I know the Texans aren't going to pick any of them & right now I can say, "No one thought those guys were "sure things"" & be happy with whatever scrub they get at the bottom of the 4th (that's why they had to make sure they got Clevelands compensatory 4th... that's where we target QBs).

Yesterday I screwed up & left the TV on NFLN... saw a little bit of Mahommes, Webb, & Kaaya on Mariucci/Warner's "game changers" (I think).

Draft still three weeks away. I have a feeling I'm going to be spitting mad.
 
I've been trying to avoid watching anything from Trubisky, Mahommes, Watson... I know the Texans aren't going to pick any of them & right now I can say, "No one thought those guys were "sure things"" & be happy with whatever scrub they get at the bottom of the 4th (that's why they had to make sure they got Clevelands compensatory 4th... that's where we target QBs).

Yesterday I screwed up & left the TV on NFLN... saw a little bit of Mahommes, Webb, & Kaaya on Mariucci/Warner's "game changers" (I think).

Draft still three weeks away. I have a feeling I'm going to be spitting mad.

This is the earliest I've ever lost hope for a Texans' season... one month before the draft.... lol
 
Neither Mariota or Bortles were planned to start day 1. The Titans started Fitzpatrick & the Jags started Henne. It wasn't until they felt a winning season was out of reach with their starters that they decided it was time their rookies start taking their lumps.

In what universe? Bortles played most of game 3 and started 4. Mariota started game 1.
 
Kaep and Cutler look to be out:

Even after learning Tony Romo has chosen retirement over Houston (or any other NFL club), the Texans don’t view Jay Cutler or Colin Kaepernick as “strong options” for their quarterback vacancy, according to Jason Cole of Bleacher Report (video link).

Cutler, for his part, doesn’t seem to be garnering interest anywhere, as Ian Rapoport of NFL.comsays Cutler’s name “rarely, if ever, comes up” during discussions with head coaches and general managers regarding quarterback openings. Following the Jets’ recent signing of veteran Josh McCown, Rapoport indicated New York — unsurprisingly — was no longer an option for Cutler, and also signaled the Texans were similarly disinterested in the former Bears quarterback.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2017/04/texans-still-not-interested-in-jay-cutler-colin-kaepernick
 
Given Bill O'Brien's success rate for picking QBs to run his system, a dartboard may be in order.
The more information and hints that come in, the more it is becoming clear that it is Rick Smith making the decisions. Rick consults with OB for his opinions, but Rick is the puppet master. OB was quoted a few days ago as saying, to paraphrase, that whatever players Rick brings in, he'll work with.
 
I would like to see them bring Fitzpatrick back. He knows the system and has been by far the most productive QB we have had running OBs offense. He is not a world beater and not the future, but with our defense just solid would make us contenders.

Bring back Fitzpatrick and draft Alek Torgerson in the late rounds.
 
I would like to see them bring Fitzpatrick back. He knows the system and has been by far the most productive QB we have had running OBs offense. He is not a world beater and not the future, but with our defense just solid would make us contenders.

Bring back Fitzpatrick and draft Alek Torgerson in the late rounds.
The problem with bringing Fitzy back is we'll look bad for letting him go in the first place? He had a great year for the Jets two seasons ago but went back to sucking this past season.
 
In what universe? Bortles played most of game 3 and started 4. Mariota started game 1.

Ok... had my QBs mixed up a bit. Fitzpatrick was already a Texan when Mariota was drafted.

Bortles... they drafted him saying they were going to "redshirt" him. Plans changed, but he was not drafted with the thought that he would start day 1.

But yeah... the Jags knew they weren't winning crap as early as game 3 with Chad Henne at QB. They were 0-3 I believe.
 
Yeah if the options are - according to OB - "I'm going to only draft a 6'5" 245 pound member of Mensa who can throw a football through a dime that's been shot out of a cannon, and until one is available I'll trot out whatever scrub I can find".... Maybe OB is part of the problem.
 
Continued from that tweet I posted earlier:

Q:Is there a QB in this draft they can take at 25 that is the guy they can win with this season?

McShay: I don't see it. Knowing what Bill O'Brien looks for in a QB, knowing how important the mental aspect is, knowing what could be available there - Pat Mahomes is 2-3 years away, all the talent in the world; Kizer has a lot of learning to do & figuring out the consistency & working on his mechanics. None of these guys you say they can come in & we can win a championship. Houston is built to win now. They're in a tough spot. They believe in Tom Savage. I don't know if you can win a championship with him but you certainly can't plug in a rookie & go win a championship.

Kiper: What Todd was talking yesterday, what Bill O'Brien wants, the QB you're describing to me is Nate Peterman from Pitt. Another Pitt QB like Tom Savage was. Peterman has leadership, mental capability, knowledge of a pro offense, accuracy, ability to be a good starter, big hand, ... Peterman's arm will get better. He's a 2nd round possibility for someone.

Q:Who is the Texans QB if not Tom Savage?

McShay: I think it's Savage.

Q:Would you sign Cutler or Kaepernick?

McShay: No. Cutler doesn't fit what he wants.

Q:Kaepernick?

McShay: Don't think it'll happen for other reasons. I'd take Kaepernick over any other available QBs at this point.
 
It's just beyond my comprehension that the guy saying this stuff is the same guy who coached Christian Hackenberg to be a Freshman All-American just 5 years ago. It's baffling.

It's the difference between the college game and the NFL. This is why many highly rated college QB's do not pan out at the NFL level. Hackenberg didn't take the NYJ by storm and probably has a minimum of 3 NFL seasons before the team really knows what they have in him. Petty is in the same boat.
 
It's just beyond my comprehension that the guy saying this stuff is the same guy who coached Christian Hackenberg to be a Freshman All-American just 5 years ago. It's baffling.

Not all that baffling. We knew Fitz was crap, we knew Hoyer was crap before they got here. We were hoping Mallett would show something. OB obviously thought he could coach them up. Fitz and Hoyer did have their best years under him. Mallett couldn't grow up.

I'm sure he was hoping that either Fitz or Hoyer would excel with his coaching but he couldn't take the stink out. I don't think he would have a problem starting a rookie that "had it", but it isn't likely that one would early. Perhaps if he could shop for his own groceries he could prepare a better meal. Just a thought
 
Not all that baffling. We knew Fitz was crap, we knew Hoyer was crap before they got here. We were hoping Mallett would show something. OB obviously thought he could coach them up. Fitz and Hoyer did have their best years under him. Mallett couldn't grow up.

I'm sure he was hoping that either Fitz or Hoyer would excel with his coaching but he couldn't take the stink out. I don't think he would have a problem starting a rookie that "had it", but it isn't likely that one would early. Perhaps if he could shop for his own groceries he could prepare a better meal. Just a thought

I have a very strong disagreement with this statement being used, and am frankly getting tired of saying it (I doubt to you JB). Fitz was benched for being just under the mediocre line half way through the season - injury allowed him to come back with one accidentally great game (6td's against the broken Titans) that changed his stats entirely. His best years have been with Chan Gailey. Hoyer was 15-11 in his previous starts with the BROWNS, and by some miracle had that trainwreck on pace to make the playoffs before the typical Browns fallout coincided with needing to put Manziel on the field. Hoyer even had ridiculous numbers with the Bears before injury. Neither did anything special as Texans, other than get benched. "best years" ... not at all.

Mallett never stood a chance. Keenum and Yates are 4-0 under O'Brien from their couches. Trend?
 
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Maybe O'Brien brought these QB's to set the table for Savage to be the starter. O'Brien views his system as intricate and possibly he decided it was best not to rush his developmental QB but give him a couple of seasons behind veteran QB's. I believe 2016 was to be Savage's year but somehow or for some reason McNair was sold on making the move for Osweiler by RS. "I'll coach who they send me"...not this season, O'Brien will go with Savage and Weeden a year later than he wanted, but better late than never when it come to circumventing RS from trying to get you replaced.
 
If OB is that inflexible he should be handed a box and shown the door.
We hear O'Brien's specs on a QB every year. He has to be smart, be accurate, be a leader, blah blah blah. Then they bring in guys that are none of those things. If your system is so difficult to grasp that it takes 3 years to learn...you need a new system.

If a drafted QB has no chance at seeing the field in 2017, then don't take one. Not in the 1st, not in the first 2 days. This is the 4th year for Savage, the 3rd for Weeden. This is what O'Brien has developed, this is what he has to work with. If it doesn't happen with these guys let the next head coach and GM pick a QB.
 
Texans have certainly painted themselves into an odd corner at qb.

You certainly don't won't a potential lame duck head coach picking a qb in the first round.

Otoh, Texans kind of need to make that investment as an organization. For me personally, im at the point where I don't even care if they take a guy in the first two years in a row if OB flops and a new guy comes in and wants his own QB. Seems like a waste a resources but like I said, Texans have created an odd situation that qb by not taking a top rated guy early in OBs tenure and then by compounding that with anointing one bad qb after another.
 
Baltimore and Pittsburgh were ready to win now ,yet they drafted a qb from the miami of ohio and Delaware. Within years, they were in title games and super bowl. You will never draft a qb if you think he cant win a superbowl hos 1st yr. Look what Dak did last yr.
 
I have a very strong disagreement with this statement being used, and am frankly getting tired of saying it (I doubt to you JB). Fitz was benched for being just under the mediocre line half way through the season - injury allowed him to come back with one accidentally great game (6td's against the broken Titans) that changed his stats entirely. His best years have been with Chan Gailey. Hoyer was 15-11 in his previous starts with the BROWNS, and by some miracle had that trainwreck on pace to make the playoffs before the typical Browns fallout coincided with needing to put Manziel on the field. Hoyer even had ridiculous numbers with the Bears before injury. Neither did anything special as Texans, other than get benched. "best years" ... not at all.

Mallett never stood a chance. Keenum and Yates are 4-0 under O'Brien from their couches. Trend?


Sometimes I catch myself pining for the good old OB days when Fitzy was the captain of this ship.

Then I remember how much I wanted to see Mallet finish the season after that Browns game and how I wasn't upset at all when Fitz was later traded.

It's just that OBs qbs have been so bad after that it makes you want cheese on a stick rather than soggy rotten lettuce.

But those chickens will eventually come home to roost. Either he gets lucky and Savage or someone saves his ass or I think (hope) he gets canned.
 
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