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Week 8 vs Aaron Donald

Earl34

All Pro
I know I should know this, but why are we calling him Derrick?
That's his first name and is the polite way to discuss Watson with @steelbtexan that doesn't lead to a string of pervert and POS in every thread or post.

To be honest, when @steelbtexan started referring to him by his first name, I initially thought he was trying to subliminally give us an image of an oil derrick spouting oil. So, who knows.
 
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Number19

Hall of Fame
Out of curiosity. Where is Lawrence and Wilson in your stats? Also, to avoid the "best of a bad lot analysis". Is completing 42% of passes >20 yards, considered above average, average or below average?
First, this was just a quick check. Each player must be looked at individually and I only did these three.

Likewise, there is no way, that I'm aware of, for league wide averages without a lot of work. I asked if there might be a link that might make this easier.

I had made the comment that I would guess that Mills' numbers would be middle of the pack. But this is just a guess. I'd like to know the answer to your question. My guess is that Mills would be below the midpoint. Perhaps somewhere about the top of the 4th quarter or the top of the bottom third. I just think Mills numbers look pretty good based on my own charting of Mills passing in the two games I charted.

If you have a particular QB in mind for comparison, that would be easy to review.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Out of curiosity. Where is Lawrence and Wilson in your stats? Also, to avoid the "best of a bad lot analysis". Is completing 42% of passes >20 yards, considered above average, average or below average?
OK, just a quick check for Lawrence and Wilson.

Lawrence:
15-20 yds...12-24..1 TD..3 INT.......50%
>20 yds.......9-24..3 TD..2 INT.......37.5%

Wilson:
15-20 yds....6-15..........2 INT........40%
>20 yds.....13-26..2 TD..4 INT.......50%

Note that for Lawrence, 7 of his completions and 12 of his attempts in the 15-20 range, 1 TD and 2 INT's, were in week1.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Mills:
15-20 yds...7-13..1 TD..2 INT.......54%
>20 yds.....8-19..3 TD..1 INT.......42%

Fields:
15-20 yds...9-14....................64%
>20 yds.....4-18..1 INT.............22%

Jones:
15-20 yds...10-20..2 TD..1 INT......50%
>20 yds......8-27..2 TD..1 INT......30%

Lawrence:
15-20 yds...12-24..1 TD..3 INT.......50%
>20 yds.......9-24..3 TD..2 INT.......37.5%

Wilson:
15-20 yds....6-15..........2 INT........40%
>20 yds.....13-26..2 TD..4 INT.......50%
 

Earl34

All Pro
OK, just a quick check for Lawrence and Wilson.

Lawrence:
15-20 yds...12-24..1 TD..3 INT.......50%
>20 yds.......9-24..3 TD..2 INT.......37.5%

Wilson:
15-20 yds....6-15..........2 INT........40%
>20 yds.....13-26..2 TD..4 INT.......50%

Note that for Lawrence, 7 of his completions and 12 of his attempts in the 15-20 range, 1 TD and 2 INT's, were in week1.
Thanks for taking the time to compile the stats.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That's his first name and is the polite way to discuss Watson with @steelbtexan that doesn't lead to a string of pervert and POS in every thread or post.

To be honest, when @steelbtexan started referring to him by his first name, I initially thought he was trying to subliminally give us an image of an oil derrick spouting oil. So, who knows.
Make no mistake Derrick is all of the above that you listed
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
OK, just for comparison I've looked at Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo. NFL has these ranked #1, #15 and #22

Prescott:
15-20 yds.....9-18..1 TD..1 INT.......50%
>20 yds......12-25..5 TD..2 INT.......48%

Mayfield:
15-20 yds....14-20..1 TD..1 INT.......70%
>20 yds.......9-24..1 TD..1 INT........37.5%

Garoppolo:
15-20 yds....15-22........................68%
>20 yds.......6-12..2 TD..2 INT.......50%

Mills:
15-20 yds....7-13..1 TD..2 INT........54%
>20 yds......8-19..3 TD..1 INT........42%
 

Earl34

All Pro
OK, just for comparison I've looked at Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo. NFL has these ranked #1, #15 and #22

Prescott:
15-20 yds.....9-18..1 TD..1 INT.......50%
>20 yds......12-25..5 TD..2 INT.......48%

Mayfield:
15-20 yds....14-20..1 TD..1 INT.......70%
>20 yds.......9-24..1 TD..1 INT........37.5%

Garoppolo:
15-20 yds....15-22........................68%
>20 yds.......6-12..2 TD..2 INT.......50%

Mills:
15-20 yds....7-13..1 TD..2 INT........54%
>20 yds......8-19..3 TD..1 INT........42%
I appreciate the efforts you have put into compiling the stats, but what are you saying? If Mill has enough time to complete these >20 yard passes does that destroy the narrative that he is a check down artist and the OL is not providing him with enough time? Are you simply saying Mills is playing better than other rookies and this is your proof?

Previously, we had one of the best deep threat QB/WR duo in Fuller and Watson. The criticism was you cannot sustain drives with these deep shots. It's playing hero ball and doesn't take the easy passes and check downs. Does your >20 yards stats changes the mind of those posters? Also, I found this interesting article with Rodgers >20 yards percentage compared to his passer rating. After reviewing it, Mills has a higher percentage than Rodgers in four of the last six years. We know Mills is not in the same universe as Rodgers. So, I'm still not sure the value of your >20 yds stats. Espeically when you consider the putrid offensive output.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Digs the Long Ball - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More
2020: 44.8 percent, 122.5 passer rating.
2019: 37.6 percent, 111.2 passer rating.
2018: 40.7 percent, 124.0 passer rating.
2017: 43.5 percent, 90.4 passer rating.
2016: 38.1 percent, 82.7 passer rating.
2015: 39.1 percent, 99.7 passer rating.
2014: 51.8 percent, 125.0 passer rating.
2013: 52.8 percent, 112.0 passer rating.
2012: 53.2 percent, 115.3 passer rating.
2011: 60.7 percent, 130.6 passer rating
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I seriously doubt he was saying this one stat should give you a comprehensive picture of Mills as a QB. It’s just another data point. Use it as you see fit.
IMHO, stats are worthless without proper context.

You need to have a lot of different meaningful stats and then some.

First off, you need to have meaningful stats.

Some poster (wrongly) stated that Watson's stats last year were inflated because they came in garbage time (which was not true).
But the premise was correct.

Garbage time stats are not very meaningful.
(They may have some use though).

Sometimes, even stats at the end of the half can give a false narrative.

I like to study stats, but I also realize that there's many flaws in them.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I appreciate the efforts you have put into compiling the stats, but what are you saying? If Mill has enough time to complete these >20 yard passes does that destroy the narrative that he is a check down artist and the OL is not providing him with enough time? Are you simply saying Mills is playing better than other rookies and this is your proof?

Previously, we had one of the best deep threat QB/WR duo in Fuller and Watson. The criticism was you cannot sustain drives with these deep shots. It's playing hero ball and doesn't take the easy passes and check downs. Does your >20 yards stats changes the mind of those posters? Also, I found this interesting article with Rodgers >20 yards percentage compared to his passer rating. After reviewing it, Mills has a higher percentage than Rodgers in four of the last six years. We know Mills is not in the same universe as Rodgers. So, I'm still not sure the value of your >20 yds stats. Espeically when you consider the putrid offensive output.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Digs the Long Ball - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More
2020: 44.8 percent, 122.5 passer rating.
2019: 37.6 percent, 111.2 passer rating.
2018: 40.7 percent, 124.0 passer rating.
2017: 43.5 percent, 90.4 passer rating.
2016: 38.1 percent, 82.7 passer rating.
2015: 39.1 percent, 99.7 passer rating.
2014: 51.8 percent, 125.0 passer rating.
2013: 52.8 percent, 112.0 passer rating.
2012: 53.2 percent, 115.3 passer rating.
2011: 60.7 percent, 130.6 passer rating
This tells me that the scheme is not good.

If both Derrick and Mills are both throwing a high percentage of 20 yd plus throws something is off. I'm not going to look it up but I wonder what Tyrods number of 20 plus yd throws look like.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This tells me that the scheme is not good.

If both Derrick and Mills are both throwing a high percentage of 20 yd plus throws something is off. I'm not going to look it up but I wonder what Tyrods number of 20 plus yd throws look like.
As 76Texan said, Davis is throwing these >20 yard passes when the game is all but over. Like the Rams game. If he was able to play the first 3 qtrs the way he played the last it would have been a different game.

I don't know if the same holds true for Watson. Weren't very many blow out games in 2020. Texans were scoring in the 1st half.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
As 76Texan said, Davis is throwing these >20 yard passes when the game is all but over. Like the Rams game. If he was able to play the first 3 qtrs the way he played the last it would have been a different game.

I don't know if the same holds true for Watson. Weren't very many blow out games in 2020. Texans were scoring in the 1st half.
Agreed, this is another example of numbers lying. Why do you think this is? I think it's a combination of playing against backups and they aren't as talented as Donald/Ramsey etc...

Plus the OL is able to handle the 2nd team rushers better, so the receivers have more time to get open and run deeper routes. Throw this in with the intensity level being less in a blowout and it is what it is. This is why I want to see how Mills looks against a lesser defense like Miami's. But that's not going to happen.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
I appreciate the efforts you have put into compiling the stats, but what are you saying? If Mill has enough time to complete these >20 yard passes does that destroy the narrative that he is a check down artist and the OL is not providing him with enough time? Are you simply saying Mills is playing better than other rookies and this is your proof?

Previously, we had one of the best deep threat QB/WR duo in Fuller and Watson. The criticism was you cannot sustain drives with these deep shots. It's playing hero ball and doesn't take the easy passes and check downs. Does your >20 yards stats changes the mind of those posters? Also, I found this interesting article with Rodgers >20 yards percentage compared to his passer rating. After reviewing it, Mills has a higher percentage than Rodgers in four of the last six years. We know Mills is not in the same universe as Rodgers. So, I'm still not sure the value of your >20 yds stats. Espeically when you consider the putrid offensive output.

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Digs the Long Ball - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More
2020: 44.8 percent, 122.5 passer rating.
2019: 37.6 percent, 111.2 passer rating.
2018: 40.7 percent, 124.0 passer rating.
2017: 43.5 percent, 90.4 passer rating.
2016: 38.1 percent, 82.7 passer rating.
2015: 39.1 percent, 99.7 passer rating.
2014: 51.8 percent, 125.0 passer rating.
2013: 52.8 percent, 112.0 passer rating.
2012: 53.2 percent, 115.3 passer rating.
2011: 60.7 percent, 130.6 passer rating
The short answer, I'm not saying anything; I'm simply posting stats. What started all this, the Chronicle posted that Mills ranked 31st in passes over 20yds. I had a perception that Mills had fewer attempts and wanted to see a completion percentage over 20yds.

And then there was the poster who commented that Mills "stinks" and is "horrid"; and a more general perception that Mills is not a starter and is a dinker & dunker.

I wanted to delve into the statistics and a link to Nextgenstats was provided by you. Having looked at the stats, it was easy enough to go ahead and post what I had found.

And then you asked why I hadn't provided this and that, so I posted some more.

This is the short answer, I simply wanted to see the stats on Mills. Oh, and by the way, Mills' completion percentage on longer passes is pretty much average.

The longer answer would involve asking whether the stats support Mills having the potential to be a starter and more specifically, the Texans' starter. And do we need to draft a QB next year and are any of the prospects likely to be better than Mills.

Does your >20 yards stats changes the mind of those posters?
A pro QB should be capable of effectively throwing a deep ball. Mills has shown he has the physical attributes to do so effectively. But in today's game, it's the middle range pass, those in the 15 - 20 yd range, which moves the chains and sustain drives. Mills has shown he can be effective in this range with 54%, but he needs improvement, somewhere in the range of 65%, to be really good. An improvement in our OL, to give him a shade more time, would help.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
This tells me that the scheme is not good.

If both Derrick and Mills are both throwing a high percentage of 20 yd plus throws something is off. I'm not going to look it up but I wonder what Tyrods number of 20 plus yd throws look like.
From that same Next Gen site, for 2020, +20 yds, Watson had these passer ratings:
Right side of field: 90.1 league average 78.3
Middle of field: 129.5 league average 86.1
Left side of field: 125.0 league average 75.0

Individual game stats are having difficulty downloading.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
From that same Next Gen site, for 2020, +20 yds, Watson had these passer ratings:
Right side of field: 90.1 league average 78.3
Middle of field: 129.5 league average 86.1
Left side of field: 125.0 league average 75.0

Individual game stats are having difficulty downloading.
What did Derrick's numbers look like his rookie yr?

I would imagine they looked pretty good, because he was putting up some historic rookie numbers before he got hurt.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Agreed, this is another example of numbers lying. Why do you think this is? I think it's a combination of playing against backups and they aren't as talented as Donald/Ramsey etc...

Plus the OL is able to handle the 2nd team rushers better, so the receivers have more time to get open and run deeper routes. Throw this in with the intensity level being less in a blowout and it is what it is. This is why I want to see how Mills looks against a lesser defense like Miami's. But that's not going to happen.
Disagree to an extent. One of the games I charted, the coaches only called 3 passes in the 1st Q and the only 9 passes in the 2nd Q. In the 2nd half, the coaches began calling a more uptempo game and Mills' passing game became better.

Mills can only run the plays the coaches call. But he's at his best in an uptempo game plan.

On another note, this morning's Chronicle comments on the coaches, during preseason, designing our run game to be complimented by Taylor's ability to run. When he got hurt he had the 2nd best rushing totals.

Well, when Taylor got hurt and brought in Mills, they couldn't risk Mills getting hurt and totally dropped that part of the play book from the game plans.

Who knows how competitive the Texans would have been had Mills been allowed to run his uptempo game and been allowed to run on a few plays?
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
What did Derrick's numbers look like his rookie yr?

I would imagine they looked pretty good, because he was putting up some historic rookie numbers before he got hurt.
Overall, 17-37, 7 TD's, 3 INT's

right side: 115.7 league average 74.2
middle: 158.3 league average 89.4
left side: 0.0 league average 79.2

Of note, first game at this range, he was 0-3. Second game, 0-1. Also, for game 7 there are no stats. He may have missed that game. Game 8 seems to have been his last.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Overall, 17-37, 7 TD's, 3 INT's

right side: 115.7 league average 74.2
middle: 158.3 league average 89.4
left side: 0.0 league average 79.2

Of note, first game at this range, he was 0-3. Second game, 0-1. Also, for game 7 there are no stats. He may have missed that game. Game 8 seems to have been his last.
Thanks so much for digging up these numbers so they can be put in somewhat better context.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Agreed, this is another example of numbers lying. Why do you think this is? I think it's a combination of playing against backups and they aren't as talented as Donald/Ramsey etc...

Plus the OL is able to handle the 2nd team rushers better, so the receivers have more time to get open and run deeper routes. Throw this in with the intensity level being less in a blowout and it is what it is. This is why I want to see how Mills looks against a lesser defense like Miami's. But that's not going to happen.
I think you're spot on. He is playing better against lesser talent.

I don't know why you need to see him against Miami. We saw him (& the offense) against the Rams reserves. It should be about the same.

I will say, whether it was the injured Pats or Rams 2nd team, he looks better than he did against the reserves in the preseason, so there is progress
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I think you're spot on. He is playing better against lesser talent.

I don't know why you need to see him against Miami. We saw him (& the offense) against the Rams reserves. It should be about the same.

I will say, whether it was the injured Pats or Rams 2nd team, he looks better than he did against the reserves in the preseason, so there is progress
Because the Miami defense should be better than the backups, but not as good as say the Bills or Rams 1st team defense.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
I always felt Brady was better than Henson and didn't understand why Henson got the playing time he did over Brady. It seemed like Brady always had to bail out the team at the end of games after they fell behind with Henson at the helm.

Being a Michigan man, how do you feel about the job Harbagh's done.
I like most of what he has done. My issue is that he seems to have a good to great D every single year...and a mid level O. I think this is why Michigan is almost always, since he arrived, top 10. However, they have an off game on D and they slip out of contention for the top say 4 spots. While it's not a great example, last week vs Michigan State. They could have won the game if both sides of the ball were even. Michigan just messed up a bit on D, playing away from home, and State got the W. If they would up the O talent a bit, mainly QB. I think it would have a huge impact on the end of the year ranking...maybe a playoff trip. After all, Michigan is still the winningest program ever.

As for Brady and Henson, I think he very much was overlooked. Back in the 90's it did tend to be the senior would play 90% of the time. Allowing much of what Brady was capable of. Henson was so highly touted they pushed him over Brady. And by the time they saw what we did (Brady was better) they could not admit it. So, Brady had to try to bail them out when he could and was put in. Brady likely never went to NE IF he had started over Henson. He might not have been a 1st round talent but he was no question a 2nd or 3rd. His combine numbers also are deceptive. Watch his timing on his passes. Looks better than most, but he wasn't fast. Had he done better in the ability area he would have been higher picked also.
 


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