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Week 5 - Patriots Bowl

Mangler

All Pro
Catching swing passes out the backfield, but can't run, what good is that? James Robinson in Jax is undrafted and makes pennies and do everything Johnson does and more
No one (besides you) is comparing DJ’s skills or salary with any other RB. It’s true, DJ made some plays today. Probably one of his best games since joining the club. Had some good runs, and made some nice catches. TODAY.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
PFF tracks what they call "turnover-worthy plays" vs. "big time throws", among other stats - which I think are helpful as part of a QB evaluation.
If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle...

PFF had made millions creating all kinds of "advanced metrics" for stats geeks to whip out their credit card for. Just because they create a stat, especially a "what-if" stat based on speculation/subjectivity instead of facts, doesn't mean it is a valid assessment tool or that it actually provides a proper narrative.

I've been in analytics for 30 years. I can make data say whatever I (or the boss) want it to say. I also know people by nature will take data as the gospel instead of using it as a tool to do critical thinking (I know you said "helpful as a part of" so not saying you). Just don't think that because a stat has been created that it is valuable, especially qualitative stats that have no quantitative values.

So yeah, when the response is "but PFF has a stat" I am not going to get too excited. That site is porn for geeks.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
If my aunt had balls she would be my uncle...

PFF had made millions creating all kinds of "advanced metrics" for stats geeks to whip out their credit card for. Just because they create a stat, especially a "what-if" stat based on speculation/subjectivity instead of facts, doesn't mean it is a valid assessment tool or that it actually provides a proper narrative.

I've been in analytics for 30 years. I can make data say whatever I (or the boss) want it to say. I also know people by nature will take data as the gospel instead of using it as a tool to do critical thinking (I know you said "helpful as a part of" so not saying you). Just don't think that because a stat has been created that it is valuable, especially qualitative stats that have no quantitative values.

So yeah, when the response is "but PFF has a stat" I am not going to get too excited. That site is porn for geeks.
What I normally do is to use it in conjunction with the play by play.
I'd go through the pass plays in a particular game and try to indentify those instances and see if my subjective eyes match with their assessments.
Just another tool in the bucket.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
So the fault is with the people who misuse the stats & not PFF for creating a product to fill a need?
I would challenge that they are simply trying to fill a need. More like they recognize a revenue stream and create products to maximize that potential. Just because someone produces a data set doesn't make it needed, valuable or in some cases, without an agenda.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
I would challenge that they are simply trying to fill a need. More like they recognize a revenue stream and create products to maximize that potential. Just because someone produces a data set doesn't make it needed, valuable or in some cases, without an agenda.
As those of us in the field know, garbage in, garbage out.
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Just because someone produces a data set doesn't make it needed, valuable or in some cases, without an agenda.
If it’s selling, & from my understanding NFL teams are their primary customer, then it’s filling a need.

I’m not a PFF fan, but people aren’t going to buy their products just because they put it out.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
If it’s selling, & from my understanding NFL teams are their primary customer, then it’s filling a need.

I’m not a PFF fan, but people aren’t going to buy their products just because they put it out.
Meh, the free market is filled with examples of clever marketing schemes creating needs that didn't exist, or exploiting the actual level of need, for profit.

Do we really think that teams can't properly evaluate a QB without the "turnover worthy play" metric?
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Meh, the free market is filled with examples of clever marketing schemes creating needs that didn't exist, or exploiting the actual level of need, for profit.

Do we really think that teams can't properly evaluate a QB without the "turnover worthy play" metric?
More sets of eyes to help the scouts.
And they (PFF) are not the only ones.
The more perspectives one has, the less the chance of being biased (subjective).
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
More sets of eyes to help the scouts.
And they (PFF) are not the only ones.
The more perspectives one has, the less the chance of being biased (subjective).
Agreed on this last part, except that you use quantitative data - not qualitative data - to balance out your own subjective bias. Otherwise you are simply comparing your opinions to others. You can create a score and call it a metric, but this data point is purely speculative.

Because if you can accept a scientific basis for it, then you have to accept that the entire timeline of the game would change from that point forward, rendering any actual stats as subjective as well. What if he throws for a TD on the next play after a turnover-worthy play? Do we not credit that TD in their overall QBR or assessment because it never should have happened? It's a literal Pandora's Box when you start using subjective data in analytics.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Agreed on this last part, except that you use quantitative data - not qualitative data - to balance out your own subjective bias. Otherwise you are simply comparing your opinions to others. You can create a score and call it a metric, but this data point is purely speculative.

Because if you can accept a scientific basis for it, then you have to accept that the entire timeline of the game would change from that point forward, rendering any actual stats as subjective as well. What if he throws for a TD on the next play after a turnover-worthy play? Do we not credit that TD in their overall QBR or assessment because it never should have happened? It's a literal Pandora's Box when you start using subjective data in analytics.
You're not using it as a part of the points accumulated for a player, just to remind yourself not to fall in love with such player, and to take another look at the player from other perspectives.

Now, the ability to shake off a bad play to atone oneself is a total different thing that you also need to take into account, along with a whole bunch of other traits of course.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
He's a culture guy. They prefer that over guys who can actually make plays.
None of those guys are on the current team. Except Hopefully Mills/Collins, I doubt 2 years Cooks/Mercilus/Cunningham. I will tell you this KGH can play. Hopefully they keep Reid and add through the draft. If Caserio gets lucky maybe he get two 1sts for Derrick and if Caserio hits on Mills (Jury's out) This season will have been a success. The fact is I think he's done very well considering the circumstances/Defenses he's had to face. He's done better than I expected. He's been much better than most QB's drafted in the 1st rd and I want to see him play the rest of the yr, because he needs too and I'm looking forward to seeing if last week is a great week or if this guy is the real deal. He looked pretty good to me last week, can he continue to progress.

What are your expectation of Mills this week? With Tunsil out and the Colts desperate for a win, I expect this to be a test for Mills. Hopefully Amendola will be back, how long until Collins makes it back? Collins needs to get all of the snaps he can get.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
What are your expectation of Mills this week? With Tunsil out and the Colts desperate for a win, I expect this to be a test for Mills. Hopefully Amendola will be back, how long until Collins makes it back? Collins needs to get all of the snaps he can get
Do the Colts have any pass rushers? I think Geron will protect the project just fine
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
None of those guys are on the current team. Except Hopefully Mills/Collins, I doubt 2 years Cooks/Mercilus/Cunningham. I will tell you this KGH can play. Hopefully they keep Reid and add through the draft. If Caserio gets lucky maybe he get two 1sts for Derrick and if Caserio hits on Mills (Jury's out) This season will have been a success. The fact is I think he's done very well considering the circumstances/Defenses he's had to face. He's done better than I expected. He's been much better than most QB's drafted in the 1st rd and I want to see him play the rest of the yr, because he needs too and I'm looking forward to seeing if last week is a great week or if this guy is the real deal. He looked pretty good to me last week, can he continue to progress.

What are your expectation of Mills this week? With Tunsil out and the Colts desperate for a win, I expect this to be a test for Mills. Hopefully Amendola will be back, how long until Collins makes it back? Collins needs to get all of the snaps he can get.
Cooks can play, always have been a very good player. KGH can play too. In terms of Mills, are we comparing him to other rookies or if he has the ability to be top shelf? We've seen Watson have one of the worse olines every year and still be a top tier qb correct? So not having a player isn't a reason not to perform adequately.
In regards to Caserio, why is he getting a pass already? He hired Culley correct? The dont have a definite plan based on their transactions in my opinion. You cant rebuild and compete at the same time, history has taught us that. If this team is in rebuild mode, Mills should get the snaps to get a good evaluation on what he can become. Same with Ominohu, Johnson, and Scotty the running back.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Cooks can play, always have been a very good player. KGH can play too. In terms of Mills, are we comparing him to other rookies or if he has the ability to be top shelf? We've seen Watson have one of the worse olines every year and still be a top tier qb correct? So not having a player isn't a reason not to perform adequately.
In regards to Caserio, why is he getting a pass already? He hired Culley correct? The dont have a definite plan based on their transactions in my opinion. You cant rebuild and compete at the same time, history has taught us that. If this team is in rebuild mode, Mills should get the snaps to get a good evaluation on what he can become. Same with Ominohu, Johnson, and Scotty the running back.
If we're comparing Mills to other rookie QB's Mills is doing fine. Derrick and Mills is an 🍎 and 🍊 situation.

Caserio gets a pass for several reasons, that I'm not going to take the time to list. Like I said all along, Culley is a placeholder.

Agreed about playing the young guys, but if you aren't doing the things that the coaches are asking of you like Ohmenihu is doing then you will be put on the inactive list is the message that's being sent.

About time there's some accountability down on Kirby. You can't have it both ways and want accountability but let them play anyway. The days of playing because of contracts and draft status seem to be over down on Kirby and this is long overdue.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
You cant rebuild and compete at the same time, history has taught us that.
Jacksonville, the Jets, Miami... they've been "rebuilding" & they haven't got anything.

I have no idea if Caserio's "method" is any better. I don't even know what Caserio's method is. But if you know who was QBing this team the way it is currently constructed, we'd have a fighting chance of winning the division & building something in the next few years.

If Tyrod were playing it's totally plausible this team would have won in Carolina & against New England.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
If Culley is a placeholder, so is Mills. NO reason to "develop" him on the field. Put a QB back there who knows what he's doing so guys like Howard, Heck, & Collins won't be hindered in their development.
After last weeks game I'm sure Caserio isn't looking at things the way you are.

Comparing a rookie QB to a 1st time 65 yr old HC? Can you say REACH?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
After last weeks game I'm sure Caserio isn't looking at things the way you are.
Agreed.

Comparing a rookie QB to a 1st time 65 yr old HC? Can you say REACH?
Mills is 22 and clueless. Culley is 66 and clueless.
So Mills did all that on his own? Or in spite of his HC? Interesting.

I don't know why Caserio would defer to his QB Coach if he's thinking that staff won't be here but a year or two. Unless he's thinking, "If these suckers think this is what they need in the interim, I'm going to get it for them in the interim."
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Jacksonville, the Jets, Miami... they've been "rebuilding" & they haven't got anything.

I have no idea if Caserio's "method" is any better. I don't even know what Caserio's method is. But if you know who was QBing this team the way it is currently constructed, we'd have a fighting chance of winning the division & building something in the next few years.

If Tyrod were playing it's totally plausible this team would have won in Carolina & against New England.
You can add, WFT & DET to that list as well. Bottom line is any method of reviving a team requires sound/solid decision making, and a little luck. People don't understand that there is no tried and true method of rebuilding without both of those. & for all the bitching about 1-2 moves NC has made in his 1st year on the job, none of those moves have prevented or are even hindering this team from making big leaps in improvement as early as next year.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
You forgot the Browns. It is very plausible that the Texans could be 4-1 right now if TT had stayed healthy.
True.

& that doesn’t mean this is a good team. Just that we hit the right teams at the right time. Fans may cry if Tyrod isn’t extended, but if that’s the way the powers that be feel is the right direction then so be it.

Putting your best foot forward & winning games that are there for the taking is the way to build a winning culture. At any moment decisions has to be made with best chance of winning in mind.

If not you’re just a bunch of talented losers like the Rams with “the future” Jared Goff “developing”. & not contenders like the Rams with “not the future” Mathew Stafford.

That’s not an argument for Tyrod over Mills. Just contrasting two ways of thinking. Tyrod is not in Stafford’s class.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
After last weeks game I'm sure Caserio isn't looking at things the way you are.

Comparing a rookie QB to a 1st time 65 yr old HC? Can you say REACH?
How many times have you seen a coach come in and wants his qb? Almost everytime correct? So in Essence, they're both placeholders. Back to the the accountability thing, in the NFL, you have to have a level of talent. As with all the other unsuccessful Belicheck clones, they start grabbing guys from New England who only play well in New England. Classic case is Jamie Collins. I'm sure Whitney and Martin are checking all the boxes away from GameDay, but they just can't play. Watching Cannon play Rt vs Howard last year, its clear it was a mistake to move Howard. Talent wins in this league
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
This year is about turning the culture around & stabilizing this organization........period. Removing the dark cloud that is the Easterby SI article.......the DW4 civil lawsuits & FO turmoil that has effectively plagued this organization over the last 5+ years.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
How many times have you seen a coach come in and wants his qb? Almost everytime correct? So in Essence, they're both placeholders. Back to the the accountability thing, in the NFL, you have to have a level of talent. As with all the other unsuccessful Belicheck clones, they start grabbing guys from New England who only play well in New England. Classic case is Jamie Collins. I'm sure Whitney and Martin are checking all the boxes away from GameDay, but they just can't play. Watching Cannon play Rt vs Howard last year, its clear it was a mistake to move Howard. Talent wins in this league
And almost all those coaches who come in wanting "their" guy fail too b/c they can't coach that talent up..or at least coach to the level of talent they do have. Winning is the only thing that matters. Noone cares how much talent you have if you can do that consistently.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
How many times have you seen a coach come in and wants his qb? Almost everytime correct? So in Essence, they're both placeholders. Back to the the accountability thing, in the NFL, you have to have a level of talent. As with all the other unsuccessful Belicheck clones, they start grabbing guys from New England who only play well in New England. Classic case is Jamie Collins. I'm sure Whitney and Martin are checking all the boxes away from GameDay, but they just can't play. Watching Cannon play Rt vs Howard last year, its clear it was a mistake to move Howard. Talent wins in this league
GM's yes, HC's not so much look at Dak as an example.

I'm just happy that we're going to get a chance to see how Heck does for an extended period of time. I've always though Howard was a LG playing RT. Now I'm beginning to think Howard is nothing more than an avg LG that Gaine/BOB/Devlin wasted a 1st rd pick on.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
This year is about turning the culture around & stabilizing this organization........period. Removing the dark cloud that is the Easterby SI article.......the DW4 civil lawsuits & FO turmoil that has effectively plagued this organization over the last 5+ years.
Why remove the dark cloud in Easterby?
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
GM's yes, HC's not so much look at Dak as an example.

I'm just happy that we're going to get a chance to see how Heck does for an extended period of time. I've always though Howard was a LG playing RT. Now I'm beginning to think Howard is nothing more than an avg LG that Gaine/BOB/Devlin wasted a 1st rd pick on.
Dak was proven, pro bowl caliber qb before McCarthy came in last yr. Plus we know Jerry is the hammer over their. McClay gets the talent, a guy who the Texans didn't even interview and Jerry pays and act like he's scouting players
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
I'm just happy that we're going to get a chance to see how Heck does for an extended period of time. I've always though Howard was a LG playing RT. Now I'm beginning to think Howard is nothing more than an avg LG that Gaine/BOB/Devlin wasted a 1st rd pick on.
So then you pretty must just called Howard a bust Steel.
OK so what's your opinion now of the second round OL pick Scharping in that same Draft ?
 


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