Wish to make a one time donation? Make it here.

We may suck...

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Understood. I just don't like the way some will point to a guy like Ballard as a model of success while continually griping about the Texans. There were a few years where the Texans fielded both a top 10 offense & defense, but questionable coaching/game management, or injury prevented them from getting past the divisional round.
All things being equal, most important is marriage between Head Coach and GM. Texans have never had that except maybe early on in both Casserly/Capers and Smith/Kubiac regimes. They have to at least share the same vision. This is what Ballard/Reich bring together that is so attractive. But your right, results and fruit of union not bearing out.
 

banned1976

sleeper mode
That's what I'm disputing: that the Texans have a better chance of drafting a good player with their first pick if it's in the top 5-10. Watt, Watson, Hopkins, Brown, Cushing, Fuller, KJ: those are some good picks that were in the 11-27 range. If you look at it historically (even without limiting yourself to the Texans), most of the best picks of a draft end up NOT being in the top 5 or top 10 of the draft, but later in the first round.

Sure, common sense would tell you that if you've got the first pick, you could choose anyone and you would think you have a better chance of picking the best player in the draft... but that usually doesn't happen. The Niners took Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers dropped to the mid-20's. We took Jadeveon Clowney at #1 when the best players of that draft were probably Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, and Zack Martin... and after Clowney it was Greg Robinson, Blake Bortles, and Sammy Watkins.

It's really easy to get those high picks wrong. Easier than you would expect, or at least, easier than I expected.
I wasn't disagreeing with you.

According to one study, "hit rate" by round:
Round 1: 55%
Round 2: 51%
Round 3: 38%
Round 4: 29%
Round 5: 29%
Round 6: 19%
Round 7: 14%
Total: 32%

From that article-

Specifically, what was the percentage of hits in the top-10 versus later picks and by position? To refresh your memory, I previously analyzed every draft pick and season the players in question participated in from 2010-18.

To measure the impact a player has, I set a very low bar: the percentage of seasons he was the primary starter of all his seasons in the NFL. That percentage was compared to the mean of each round.


Now on to "hit rate" percentage specific to the 1st round:

Picks
Top 10: 66%
11-20: 60%
21-32: 43%


Bottom line, it's basically a 50/50 split you're going to draft a player in the 1st round that will be a consistent starter.

Per another study, you have a 34% chance of drafting a pro-bowl type player in the 1st round. That study collected data of players drafted in the first round between the years of 2011-2020. 319 players.

There's a bunch more data out there that just supports the basic fact your chances of drafting quality players picks 11-20 are about the same as if you were drafting 1-10. Here's another article that goes deeper into the analytics of draft position in round 1. https://www.catscratchreader.com/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

Bottomiest line: if you're a Texans fan, you might as well root for them to win and quit worrying about draft position in 2022.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
I wasn't disagreeing with you.

According to one study, "hit rate" by round:
Round 1: 55%
Round 2: 51%
Round 3: 38%
Round 4: 29%
Round 5: 29%
Round 6: 19%
Round 7: 14%
Total: 32%

From that article-

Specifically, what was the percentage of hits in the top-10 versus later picks and by position? To refresh your memory, I previously analyzed every draft pick and season the players in question participated in from 2010-18.

To measure the impact a player has, I set a very low bar: the percentage of seasons he was the primary starter of all his seasons in the NFL. That percentage was compared to the mean of each round.


Now on to "hit rate" percentage specific to the 1st round:

Picks
Top 10: 66%
11-20: 60%
21-32: 43%


Bottom line, it's basically a 50/50 split you're going to draft a player in the 1st round that will be a consistent starter.

Per another study, you have a 34% chance of drafting a pro-bowl type player in the 1st round. That study collected data of players drafted in the first round between the years of 2011-2020. 319 players.

There's a bunch more data out there that just supports the basic fact your chances of drafting quality players picks 11-20 are about the same as if you were drafting 1-10. Here's another article that goes deeper into the analytics of draft position in round 1. https://www.catscratchreader.com/2018/5/16/17359772/what-draft-position-tells-us-finding-pro-bowlers-regular-contributors

Bottomiest line: if you're a Texans fan, you might as well root for them to win and quit worrying about draft position in 2022.
Thanks for the data, I appreciate that.

That was basically what I was saying, although there's some info in what you posted that's new to me and what I was saying was probably overstating a bit.

But that's why I don't believe in tanking or shooting to get the #1 overall pick.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
But that's why I don't believe in tanking or shooting to get the #1 overall pick.
imo if you can’t win, it doesn’t matter where you pick. Everyone in the organization from the top down needs to be focused on winning games. Winning seasons. Winning Championships.

Aiming for that #1 pick, or a high pick for that matter is counter to winning, imo.

Now, when I say the whole organization must be focused on winning, I don’t mean they should be focused on “winning now.”

Winning now is symptomatic of something gone wrong & leads to Laremy Tunsil type trades & Laremy Tunsil type contracts.
 

ArlingtonTexan

Coming Soon: AcresHomeTexan
Staff member
Thanks for the data, I appreciate that.

That was basically what I was saying, although there's some info in what you posted that's new to me and what I was saying was probably overstating a bit.

But that's why I don't believe in tanking or shooting to get the #1 overall pick.
Yes and a lot of the really high pick logic is that your team is going to be lucky one to benefit when some organization (see 2021 49ers) flies against the norm and trades bunches of stuff for that pick.
 

Double Barrel

Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Watch them exceed most of you gents expectations.
I hope so. I've never wanted to be more wrong.

It would be a great story for Culley to achieve great things with the Texans.

Almost like a fairy tale. . .y'know, "make believe"? ;)

But seriously, losing is no fun in any way, not even for potential draft picks. A couple of my friends are predicting 6-7 wins this year. I'd be good with that after last year and this off-season.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
Sure, common sense would tell you that if you've got the first pick, you could choose anyone and you would think you have a better chance of picking the best player in the draft... but that usually doesn't happen.
I would stick with common sense. Because it's also backed by data. If you take the cumulative approximate value (stat created by pro-football reference.com) for each draft position over the past 10 drafts (2011-2020), the 1st pick has almost 27% more value than the next ranked pick (#6). There are anomalies (like #3 producing a lot of duds). But, the data pretty much normalizes into a declining straight line from top to bottom draft slots.

DP Total AV
1 495
2 352
3 227
4 361
5 388
6 390
7 264
8 285
9 340
10 281
11 351
12 297
13 345
14 292
15 243
16 280
17 291
18 306
19 203
20 256
21 226
22 203
23 170
24 274
25 268
26 132
27 315
28 221
29 152
30 230
31 275
32 236

I get the fear of the Texans screwing the draft pooch. But, they can do that at #5 just as easily as #1. Easier, in fact.
 
Last edited:

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
I think it's a pretty bottom line way of thinking that if you're going to be selecting from a pool of choices that you'd like to have the earliest selections of all the other selectors.

That said, it's just as important - and likely points to why some duds are selected earlier - to have those making the selections be as competent as can be at the process.

The only big issue with picking number 1 overall that can and has been a detractor before is selection pressure. That is to say the pressure of the 'consensus' best selection. Clowney comes to mind here. Mack was the better option for many people but no GM would want the egg on their face of picking a Mack if Clowney were to actually reach his supposed potential. Letting those selections get out of the way before you pick a little later on makes that a non-factor of course. But if a team just has the stones to pick who they think is the very best option than that doesn't matter.
 
Last edited:

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
I would stick with common sense. Because it's also backed by data. If you take the cumulative approximate value (stat created by pro-football reference.com) for each draft position over the past 10 drafts (2011-2020), the 1st pick has almost 27% move value than the next ranked pick (#6). There are anomalies (like #3 producing a lot of duds). But, the data pretty much normalizes into a declining straight line from top to bottom draft slots.

DP Total AV
1 495
2 352
3 227
4 361
5 388
6 390
7 264
8 285
9 340
10 281
11 351
12 297
13 345
14 292
15 243
16 280
17 291
18 306
19 203
20 256
21 226
22 203
23 170
24 274
25 268
26 132
27 315
28 221
29 152
30 230
31 275
32 236

I get the fear of the Texans screwing the draft pooch. But, they can do that at #5 just as easily as #1. Easier, in fact.
I'm not sure I would have gone that recent on the drafts, but that's an interesting way to look at it.

I was hesitant to use the Total AV--because it's got some issues--but I was originally just looking at the top ten AVs in a draft and where they were coming from and basing my judgment on that. Not a real deep dive into the numbers or anything.

But you can see an example of why I was hesitant to use AV and recent drafts if you look at the top 11 AV from 2017.

1. (10) Mahomes - 54
2. (12) Watson - 52
3. (32) Ramczyk - 51
4. (67) Kamara - 50
5. (30) Watt - 46
6. (8) McCaffrey - 41
7. (27) White - 40
8. (41) Cook - 37
9. (6) Adams - 36
10. (1) Garrett - 35
11. (2) Trubisky - 34

Trubisky, at this point in his career, looks pretty successful from an AV calculation, but that's because the Bears really, really tried to put him in a position to succeed. His AV probably won't go up much from this point because teams aren't going to be as invested in him as the Bears were, and he may end up a career back-up from this point. That's how the AV can get inflated.

But with all that said, I do like what you presented. I'll soften my stance on it a bit. I still don't think you need to have a top 10 pick to build a successful team, but if you play your cards right, you can hit gold.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
All things being equal, most important is marriage between Head Coach and GM. Texans have never had that except maybe early on in both Casserly/Capers and Smith/Kubiac regimes. They have to at least share the same vision. This is what Ballard/Reich bring together that is so attractive. But your right, results and fruit of union not bearing out.
Spot on

And the McNairs have allowed this level of dysfunction to go on for years. As Texans fans we have to hope Bob McNair's vision gets carried out by Cal that Cal gets lucky.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
But with all that said, I do like what you presented. I'll soften my stance on it a bit. I still don't think you need to have a top 10 pick to build a successful team, but if you play your cards right, you can hit gold.
It's pretty rare for a non-expansion team to be as bereft of talent as the 2021 Texans. The Texans went from somewhere around 10th-15th level NFL talent to rock bottom in 24 months. At the same time the team traded every high draft pick they possessed. It's an unprecedented purge.

So we're not talking about a year away. Or even two years away. 3 years of high picks, and then hit the FA market hard. That's why some of us are preaching to keep saving cap space and pushing it forward. And no one expects to hit on every pick. That's why acquiring multiple picks and taking more bites at the draft apple is so important. For those of us (like yourself) who have been through a couple of these franchise builds, it's about patience and an understanding that the rewards will come in the future. If they ever come at all.

In other words...we may suck.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
It's pretty rare for a non-expansion team to be as bereft of talent as the 2021 Texans. The Texans went from somewhere around 10th-15th level NFL talent to rock bottom in 24 months...
I disagree that the Texans are "bereft of talent".

We may have only one pro-bowl elite talent in Tunsil, but if you take all 22 starters, as a team, I think we just may have above average "team" talent. What I'm saying is that the whole is greater than the parts.

One position I was a little concerned about several weeks ago was RG, but I'm now thinking we may be better than I originally thought.

QB, RB, WR, SR, TE, OT, OG, C
NT, DT, DE, MLB, SLB, WLB, CB, SS, FS

I don't see a serious hole anywhere.

All the negative assessments are based on the past, and not on the current makeup of this team. We'll see - in five months. But I'm suspecting the Texans are going to surprise a few people.

We still have two more pre-season games before final predictions, but baring serious injury, I'm currently thinking we just maybe could win the AFC South, or at least take the wild card, if not win outright.

I'm really liking what I'm seeing.
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
I disagree that the Texans are "bereft of talent".

We may have only one pro-bowl elite talent in Tunsil, but if you take all 22 starters, as a team, I think we just may have above average "team" talent. What I'm saying is that the whole is greater than the parts.

One position I was a little concerned about several weeks ago was RG, but I'm now thinking we may be better than I originally thought.

QB, RB, WR, SR, TE, OT, OG, C
NT, DT, DE, MLB, SLB, WLB, CB, SS, FS

I don't see a serious hole anywhere.

All the negative assessments are based on the past, and not on the current makeup of this team. We'll see - in five months. But I'm suspecting the Texans are going to surprise a few people.

We still have two more pre-season games before final predictions, but baring serious injury, I'm currently thinking we just maybe could win the AFC South, or at least take the wild card, if not win outright.

I'm really liking what I'm seeing.
Honestly curious what you're basing the 'whole is greater than their parts, team talent' confidence on? Other than perhaps sheer optimism.

Especially in a group of guys that have never played a real game together who are under a HC who's never so much as been a coordinator before.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
I would be thrilled with 9 or 10 wins and a team that at least competes and plays hard in the wild card round of the playoffs. That would be a far cry better than what is expected by most people, both fans and otherwise.
I would be thrilled with 3 wins. Then take that draft capital and parlay that on top of Deshaun haul to revamp/jumpstart this franchise.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
I disagree that the Texans are "bereft of talent".

We may have only one pro-bowl elite talent in Tunsil, but if you take all 22 starters, as a team, I think we just may have above average "team" talent. What I'm saying is that the whole is greater than the parts.

One position I was a little concerned about several weeks ago was RG, but I'm now thinking we may be better than I originally thought.

QB, RB, WR, SR, TE, OT, OG, C
NT, DT, DE, MLB, SLB, WLB, CB, SS, FS

I don't see a serious hole anywhere.

All the negative assessments are based on the past, and not on the current makeup of this team. We'll see - in five months. But I'm suspecting the Texans are going to surprise a few people.

We still have two more pre-season games before final predictions, but baring serious injury, I'm currently thinking we just maybe could win the AFC South, or at least take the wild card, if not win outright.

I'm really liking what I'm seeing.
I love this post . But really all I want to see out of the season is for the coaching staff to roll out a system that the players buy into. We are facing a major turnaround attempt and we have to totally break from the past. People are flat wrong on this board to criticize this team based on last year. Totally new group and from the look of things and our cuts so far, totally new group of players. This will still change as we go through waivers. NC was spot on raising the competition level this season. Long way to go but we’ve come a ways too But we’ve started the process. From the interviews every single player on this team is excited and that includes some players I was concerned about in our ability to extend them. Not sure what else we aren’t doing at this point.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
Honestly curious what you're basing the 'whole is greater than their parts, team talent' confidence on? Other than perhaps sheer optimism.

Especially in a group of guys that have never played a real game together who are under a HC who's never so much as been a coordinator before.
I'd much rather answer this in 3 weeks when we have the starting 22 tied down. But, I'm considering the starting talent we have at each position and, just as important if not more so, the coaching changes.

James Campen is a difference maker as the OL coach.
Lovie Smith is a difference maker defensively.

With Watson's departure, our offense is going to switch from a deep passing game to a more evenly balanced run-pass game. Tyrod Taylor is well suited for this style of offense and in the short to intermediate pass game, there will not be much of a drop off in the offence from the loss of Watson as QB, whose strength was in the deep vertical game.

In the past, our QB was under pressure from the middle. Nick Martin was a liability. This year that problem will be addressed from improved play by Justin Britt who is an anchor.

It's looking like there may be a change with Tytus Howard moving to LG. If this happens, I'm seeing an excellent left side with Britt, Howard and Tunsil.

The right side is still in flux, which is why I'd like to wait three more weeks. But the reports are that Heck has shown more progress during this off-season than any other player and is impressing. We'll have to see how he looks the next two pre-season games, but it's looking like he could win the starting RT position (which allows Howard to move to the left side). But we also have veteran Marcus Cannon.

At RG, Max Sharping is performing better in camp and is showing improvement over last year. But we also have veteran Lane Taylor; and if Heck wins the RT spot, Cannon can play RG as well.

Receivers? Cobb, Conley, Cooks, Coutee, and rookie Nico Collins. (Look at that, all last names starting with C. The 5 amigos?)

Tight ends? Akins and Brown are solid. (Looks like our receivers could be the A, B, C's)

Running Back? We're six deep, all fighting to make it, but Lindsey and Johnson make a strong tandem.

Special teams? If Green Bay is any indication, Desmond King and Tremon Smith performed well in the absence of return specialist Andre Roberts.

Defensively, the make over to a 4-3 is going to pay huge dividends.

For whatever reason, our defensive linemen were miscast in the 34 and are natural fits for the 43. Blacklock, Greenard, Mercilus and Omenihu are all going to benefit from the change. We also added Maliek Collins, Jorden Jenkins, Shaq Lawson, Vincent Taylor and DeMarcus Walker. We will have a much improved pass rush and will be better against the run. And Roy Lopez is looking like a 6th round steal at NT.

At LB, we added speed. Of course, Cunningham is back. And we added Kamu Grugier-Hill, who flashed against Green Bay. As well as Kevin Pierre-Louis, Christian Kirksey and several others. We'll have to wait and see who starts but it should be a good group with the speed that the 43 requires.

Defensive backfield is going to benefit from an improved pass rush and pressure on the QB.

Justin Reid is a starter. Eric Murry and Lonnie Johnson are in the mix to start opposite Reid. At CB, there's Bradley Roby, Desmond King, Vernon Hargreaves, Terrance Mitchell. Again, this is another position we'll have to wait and see who starts.

Although none of these players are elite, with the exception of Tunsil, this is a veteran group who have produced well in past seasons; and I'm expecting Campen and Smith to coach them up into a cohesive unit which is going to surprise.

You can call it "sheer optimism" but I'm looking at the individual pieces/players that Campen and Smith have to work with and am trusting that our coaches are going to bring out the best.

I'm really looking forward to Dallas and Tampa, the return of our veterans who did not play against Green Bay, and further evaluation of our offense and defense.
 

powda

Guard your tongue before it digs your grave.
Ummm. You sound pretty damn optimistic to me.


I hope your right but I wouldn't bet on it.
 

powda

Guard your tongue before it digs your grave.
Sure, I'm optimistic. But it's not "sheer" optimism, as I would define it. My optimism is based on my evaluation of the team.

I guess I need a bigger sample size. I'll give it the preseason and 3 reg games personally.
 
Last edited:
I would be thrilled with 3 wins. Then take that draft capital and parlay that on top of Deshaun haul to revamp/jumpstart this franchise.
Not me. I will always root for my teams to win no matter what. I will never be thrilled about a 3 win season no matter how high the draft capital we get from it is. Trading DW4 will get us plenty whether we lose or not. We are more than likely headed toward a 2 to 4 win season but there is always the chance that we are better than anybody expects us to be. If we are, than we won't necessarily need to lose to revamp/jumpstart our roster. We would be closer to playoff contenders than anybody expects us to be. I hope we win a lot of games!
 

Mollywhopper

Facilitator
Staff member
I'd much rather answer this in 3 weeks when we have the starting 22 tied down. But, I'm considering the starting talent we have at each position and, just as important if not more so, the coaching changes.

James Campen is a difference maker as the OL coach.
Lovie Smith is a difference maker defensively.

With Watson's departure, our offense is going to switch from a deep passing game to a more evenly balanced run-pass game. Tyrod Taylor is well suited for this style of offense and in the short to intermediate pass game, there will not be much of a drop off in the offence from the loss of Watson as QB, whose strength was in the deep vertical game.

In the past, our QB was under pressure from the middle. Nick Martin was a liability. This year that problem will be addressed from improved play by Justin Britt who is an anchor.

It's looking like there may be a change with Tytus Howard moving to LG. If this happens, I'm seeing an excellent left side with Britt, Howard and Tunsil.

The right side is still in flux, which is why I'd like to wait three more weeks. But the reports are that Heck has shown more progress during this off-season than any other player and is impressing. We'll have to see how he looks the next two pre-season games, but it's looking like he could win the starting RT position (which allows Howard to move to the left side). But we also have veteran Marcus Cannon.

At RG, Max Sharping is performing better in camp and is showing improvement over last year. But we also have veteran Lane Taylor; and if Heck wins the RT spot, Cannon can play RG as well.

Receivers? Cobb, Conley, Cooks, Coutee, and rookie Nico Collins. (Look at that, all last names starting with C. The 5 amigos?)

Tight ends? Akins and Brown are solid. (Looks like our receivers could be the A, B, C's)

Running Back? We're six deep, all fighting to make it, but Lindsey and Johnson make a strong tandem.

Special teams? If Green Bay is any indication, Desmond King and Tremon Smith performed well in the absence of return specialist Andre Roberts.

Defensively, the make over to a 4-3 is going to pay huge dividends.

For whatever reason, our defensive linemen were miscast in the 34 and are natural fits for the 43. Blacklock, Greenard, Mercilus and Omenihu are all going to benefit from the change. We also added Maliek Collins, Jorden Jenkins, Shaq Lawson, Vincent Taylor and DeMarcus Walker. We will have a much improved pass rush and will be better against the run. And Roy Lopez is looking like a 6th round steal at NT.

At LB, we added speed. Of course, Cunningham is back. And we added Kamu Grugier-Hill, who flashed against Green Bay. As well as Kevin Pierre-Louis, Christian Kirksey and several others. We'll have to wait and see who starts but it should be a good group with the speed that the 43 requires.

Defensive backfield is going to benefit from an improved pass rush and pressure on the QB.

Justin Reid is a starter. Eric Murry and Lonnie Johnson are in the mix to start opposite Reid. At CB, there's Bradley Roby, Desmond King, Vernon Hargreaves, Terrance Mitchell. Again, this is another position we'll have to wait and see who starts.

Although none of these players are elite, with the exception of Tunsil, this is a veteran group who have produced well in past seasons; and I'm expecting Campen and Smith to coach them up into a cohesive unit which is going to surprise.

You can call it "sheer optimism" but I'm looking at the individual pieces/players that Campen and Smith have to work with and am trusting that our coaches are going to bring out the best.

I'm really looking forward to Dallas and Tampa, the return of our veterans who did not play against Green Bay, and further evaluation of our offense and defense.
Ok, colossal optimism..

Fair enough.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
I'd much rather answer this in 3 weeks when we have the starting 22 tied down. But, I'm considering the starting talent we have at each position and, just as important if not more so, the coaching changes.

James Campen is a difference maker as the OL coach.
Lovie Smith is a difference maker defensively.

With Watson's departure, our offense is going to switch from a deep passing game to a more evenly balanced run-pass game. Tyrod Taylor is well suited for this style of offense and in the short to intermediate pass game, there will not be much of a drop off in the offence from the loss of Watson as QB, whose strength was in the deep vertical game.

In the past, our QB was under pressure from the middle. Nick Martin was a liability. This year that problem will be addressed from improved play by Justin Britt who is an anchor.

It's looking like there may be a change with Tytus Howard moving to LG. If this happens, I'm seeing an excellent left side with Britt, Howard and Tunsil.

The right side is still in flux, which is why I'd like to wait three more weeks. But the reports are that Heck has shown more progress during this off-season than any other player and is impressing. We'll have to see how he looks the next two pre-season games, but it's looking like he could win the starting RT position (which allows Howard to move to the left side). But we also have veteran Marcus Cannon.

At RG, Max Sharping is performing better in camp and is showing improvement over last year. But we also have veteran Lane Taylor; and if Heck wins the RT spot, Cannon can play RG as well.

Receivers? Cobb, Conley, Cooks, Coutee, and rookie Nico Collins. (Look at that, all last names starting with C. The 5 amigos?)

Tight ends? Akins and Brown are solid. (Looks like our receivers could be the A, B, C's)

Running Back? We're six deep, all fighting to make it, but Lindsey and Johnson make a strong tandem.

Special teams? If Green Bay is any indication, Desmond King and Tremon Smith performed well in the absence of return specialist Andre Roberts.

Defensively, the make over to a 4-3 is going to pay huge dividends.

For whatever reason, our defensive linemen were miscast in the 34 and are natural fits for the 43. Blacklock, Greenard, Mercilus and Omenihu are all going to benefit from the change. We also added Maliek Collins, Jorden Jenkins, Shaq Lawson, Vincent Taylor and DeMarcus Walker. We will have a much improved pass rush and will be better against the run. And Roy Lopez is looking like a 6th round steal at NT.

At LB, we added speed. Of course, Cunningham is back. And we added Kamu Grugier-Hill, who flashed against Green Bay. As well as Kevin Pierre-Louis, Christian Kirksey and several others. We'll have to wait and see who starts but it should be a good group with the speed that the 43 requires.

Defensive backfield is going to benefit from an improved pass rush and pressure on the QB.

Justin Reid is a starter. Eric Murry and Lonnie Johnson are in the mix to start opposite Reid. At CB, there's Bradley Roby, Desmond King, Vernon Hargreaves, Terrance Mitchell. Again, this is another position we'll have to wait and see who starts.

Although none of these players are elite, with the exception of Tunsil, this is a veteran group who have produced well in past seasons; and I'm expecting Campen and Smith to coach them up into a cohesive unit which is going to surprise.

You can call it "sheer optimism" but I'm looking at the individual pieces/players that Campen and Smith have to work with and am trusting that our coaches are going to bring out the best.

I'm really looking forward to Dallas and Tampa, the return of our veterans who did not play against Green Bay, and further evaluation of our offense and defense.
El Guapo, Cobb is no longer the feevth amigo.
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
I guess I need a bigger same size. I'll give it the preseason and 3 reg games personally.
That's reasonable. I've been saying my final evaluation would be at the end of training camp when I see the final roster. If I hadn't already committed to this, I might be on board waiting 3 games into the season.

Jags, an easy must win game; Browns, a tough opponent, likely a loss; Panthers, an easy must win game.

How we play against the Browns will be telling. We can lose, but we must not make it easy.

The rest of the season gets harder, but if we play well against the Browns, then we can match up against the rest of the schedule.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I'd much rather answer this in 3 weeks when we have the starting 22 tied down. But, I'm considering the starting talent we have at each position and, just as important if not more so, the coaching changes.

James Campen is a difference maker as the OL coach.
Lovie Smith is a difference maker defensively.

With Watson's departure, our offense is going to switch from a deep passing game to a more evenly balanced run-pass game. Tyrod Taylor is well suited for this style of offense and in the short to intermediate pass game, there will not be much of a drop off in the offence from the loss of Watson as QB, whose strength was in the deep vertical game.

In the past, our QB was under pressure from the middle. Nick Martin was a liability. This year that problem will be addressed from improved play by Justin Britt who is an anchor.

It's looking like there may be a change with Tytus Howard moving to LG. If this happens, I'm seeing an excellent left side with Britt, Howard and Tunsil.

The right side is still in flux, which is why I'd like to wait three more weeks. But the reports are that Heck has shown more progress during this off-season than any other player and is impressing. We'll have to see how he looks the next two pre-season games, but it's looking like he could win the starting RT position (which allows Howard to move to the left side). But we also have veteran Marcus Cannon.

At RG, Max Sharping is performing better in camp and is showing improvement over last year. But we also have veteran Lane Taylor; and if Heck wins the RT spot, Cannon can play RG as well.

Receivers? Cobb, Conley, Cooks, Coutee, and rookie Nico Collins. (Look at that, all last names starting with C. The 5 amigos?)

Tight ends? Akins and Brown are solid. (Looks like our receivers could be the A, B, C's)

Running Back? We're six deep, all fighting to make it, but Lindsey and Johnson make a strong tandem.

Special teams? If Green Bay is any indication, Desmond King and Tremon Smith performed well in the absence of return specialist Andre Roberts.

Defensively, the make over to a 4-3 is going to pay huge dividends.

For whatever reason, our defensive linemen were miscast in the 34 and are natural fits for the 43. Blacklock, Greenard, Mercilus and Omenihu are all going to benefit from the change. We also added Maliek Collins, Jorden Jenkins, Shaq Lawson, Vincent Taylor and DeMarcus Walker. We will have a much improved pass rush and will be better against the run. And Roy Lopez is looking like a 6th round steal at NT.

At LB, we added speed. Of course, Cunningham is back. And we added Kamu Grugier-Hill, who flashed against Green Bay. As well as Kevin Pierre-Louis, Christian Kirksey and several others. We'll have to wait and see who starts but it should be a good group with the speed that the 43 requires.

Defensive backfield is going to benefit from an improved pass rush and pressure on the QB.

Justin Reid is a starter. Eric Murry and Lonnie Johnson are in the mix to start opposite Reid. At CB, there's Bradley Roby, Desmond King, Vernon Hargreaves, Terrance Mitchell. Again, this is another position we'll have to wait and see who starts.

Although none of these players are elite, with the exception of Tunsil, this is a veteran group who have produced well in past seasons; and I'm expecting Campen and Smith to coach them up into a cohesive unit which is going to surprise.

You can call it "sheer optimism" but I'm looking at the individual pieces/players that Campen and Smith have to work with and am trusting that our coaches are going to bring out the best.

I'm really looking forward to Dallas and Tampa, the return of our veterans who did not play against Green Bay, and further evaluation of our offense and defense.
I like your optimism, but the only thing I can agree as a positive change that will pay dividends is that Martin is not our center.

Everything else can go either way. I’m hoping for the best, but I know that’s all it is.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
I like your optimism, but the only thing I can agree as a positive change that will pay dividends is that Martin is not our center.
I think @Number19 's best point was that Campen is the OL coach. That probably has more to do with the long term development of Howard, Heck, and Sharping than cobbling together the reclamation projects Caserio has come up with.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
Sure hoping 3rd 4th time's the charm
There is no excuse for a franchise to go through entire process again, other than NFL is competitive as hell, so any missed step, can send you down a rabbit hole, as other, astute organizations steal away prized assets. I figure Tunsil will probably be next, not convinced this whole thing’s unraveled yet?
 

Number19

Hall of Fame
I think @Number19 's best point was that Campen is the OL coach. That probably has more to do with the long term development of Howard, Heck, and Sharping than cobbling together the reclamation projects Caserio has come up with.
I think the replacement of Anthony Weaver with Lovie Smith, and the switch to the 4-3, just as critical to our rebuilding and improvement. Both of these are the reason for my optimism.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
:texflag:
It's pretty rare for a non-expansion team to be as bereft of talent as the 2021 Texans. The Texans went from somewhere around 10th-15th level NFL talent to rock bottom in 24 months. At the same time the team traded every high draft pick they possessed. It's an unprecedented purge.

So we're not talking about a year away. Or even two years away. 3 years of high picks, and then hit the FA market hard. That's why some of us are preaching to keep saving cap space and pushing it forward. And no one expects to hit on every pick. That's why acquiring multiple picks and taking more bites at the draft apple is so important. For those of us (like yourself) who have been through a couple of these franchise builds, it's about patience and an understanding that the rewards will come in the future. If they ever come at all.

In other words...we may suck.
Going on the premise that they're going to suck for the next 2-3 yrs, that makes the Tunsil /Cooks contracts even more understandable. They will easily be able to get out of those contracts in 2-3 yrs when they should be needing cap space to add fa's. If they want to keep them past 2-3 yrs and pay them one more contract they can do this too.

We differ on how we value late Rd picks. You want as many of them as possible. I think they should be used to trade up into the top 3 rds to get a player with potential to be a star like they did with Collins. Rather than taking a bunch of late Rd guys and hoping you hit on them. How many Rd 5 thru 7 guys have the Texans GM's drafted that have really made a difference?
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
One step back and a little luck on the POS front and the rebuild time may be short.
How much will Mills weigh in the equation that’s what we need to find out now. Then have better formula to build new platform/roster!

I’m telling you, want that Clowney pick back and draft Mack instead. Donald would have been sweet too, but at time, Texans unwilling to move away from Watt or invest that much on DL.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
:texflag:


Going on the premise that they're going to suck for the next 2-3 yrs, that makes the Tunsil /Cooks contracts even more understandable. They will easily be able to get out of those contracts in 2-3 yrs when they should be needing cap space to add fa's. If they want to keep them past 2-3 yrs and pay them one more contract they can do this too.

We differ on how we value late Rd picks. You want as many of them as possible. I think they should be used to trade up into the top 3 rds to get a player with potential to be a star like they did with Collins. Rather than taking a bunch of late Rd guys and hoping you hit on them. How many Rd 5 thru 7 guys have the Texans GM's drafted that have really made a difference?
I agree with your assessment but I would question one thing….not just for you but for everyone? Why do we want to tie Caserio’s future with Texans GM’s past? What they did is what they did. It’s a ducking shame that the McNair’s haven’t got this right in 4 attempts. But Caserio gets his shot now and it was unfortunate that he was forced to clean up OB’s shite storm first before truly beginning his tenure. I will say this, the guy did a pretty admirable job in cleaning this up this mess in his first season and it really has me looking forward to his second season since he’ll be in possession of all his assets and maybe even ample cap space.
 

beerlover

Hall of Fame
I agree with your assessment but I would question one thing….not just for you but for everyone? Why do we want to tie Caserio’s future with Texans GM’s past? What they did is what they did. It’s a ducking shame that the McNair’s haven’t got this right in 4 attempts. But Caserio gets his shot now and it was unfortunate that he was forced to clean up OB’s shite storm first before truly beginning his tenure. I will say this, the guy did a pretty admirable job in cleaning this up this mess in his first season and it really has me looking forward to his second season since he’ll be in possession of all his assets and maybe even ample cap space.
Simple answer would be, ownership is essentially unchanged along with culture.
 

TheMatrix31

Hall of Fame
This team is already better just by not having that dumb ******* tyrant pieceashit Bill O'Brien involved with the franchise in any way, shape, or form.

I'm hoping for a competitive team even if we end up with 4-6 wins. That'll be way better than the "successful" teams under O'Brien because those teams were all unwatchable no matter the result.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
I agree with your assessment but I would question one thing….not just for you but for everyone? Why do we want to tie Caserio’s future with Texans GM’s past? What they did is what they did. It’s a ducking shame that the McNair’s haven’t got this right in 4 attempts. But Caserio gets his shot now and it was unfortunate that he was forced to clean up OB’s shite storm first before truly beginning his tenure. I will say this, the guy did a pretty admirable job in cleaning this up this mess in his first season and it really has me looking forward to his second season since he’ll be in possession of all his assets and maybe even ample cap space.
I wasn't comparing GM's

I was trying to make the point that 5th through 7th rders rarely are difference makers.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
This team is already better just by not having that dumb ******* tyrant pieceashit Bill O'Brien involved with the franchise in any way, shape, or form.

I'm hoping for a competitive team even if we end up with 4-6 wins. That'll be way better than the "successful" teams under O'Brien because those teams were all unwatchable no matter the result.
Translated

I hated BOB so much I would rather lose than have him as HC.
 


Top