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Watson’s a top 5 qb. Do you agree?

powda

You forgot the briefcase!
You seemed to flat out disregard all of what I'd said that you quoted. And fair enough that's your prerogative. But it didn't come across entirely just conversational.

Maybe I took it too harshly and I'll take that. Not sure what to say other than that.
I dont mean to be abrasive. If there's more on your mind let me know.
 

theCATALYST

Waterboy
What more of a supporting cast do you think he needs?
I would begin with a offensive line coach to get the most out of our new acquisitions. I would also toss a proven OC into the mix (even though I think every poster here is already 100% behind that). We have the receiver and RB talent, it just needs to stay healthy. Our pass/run game goes as the O-Line goes.
 

powda

You forgot the briefcase!
I would begin with a offensive line coach to get the most out of our new acquisitions. I would also toss a proven OC into the mix (even though I think every poster here is already 100% behind that). We have the receiver talent, it just needs to stay healthy. Our pass/run game goes as the O-Line goes.
I think the ol has underperformed lately. If they play up to their ability we'll be ok.

I want more pass rush. We seem to have thrown together good secondary talent recently. Need someone to get to the qb.
 

powda

You forgot the briefcase!
Anything can happen, but right now as it stands, no I don't think so.
The offense would have to turn in 3 games in a row of the Chiefs game offense and the D would have to play out of its mind. And I'm not confident enough that our "OC" could get 3 games in a row like that.
Agreed. Need more consistent play on offense. Need a legit pass rush. Need better game management. If things fall just right we're a season away. Not this year. This year in the playoffs we might get 1 win.
 

mws

Waterboy
For f*ck f*ck*ng sake, bad games happen to everybody. Even GOATS, and particularly youngsters on their come up.
Every QB has growing pains. It is really is too early to predict with any accuracy what he will become.

Comparison of Watson's first 34 games to T. Brady (who many feel is the GOAT) first 32 games

D. Watson First 34 Games

2019: 11 Games, 249/361 69.0%, 20 TD, 7 INT, 103.4 QBR
2018: 16 Games, 345/505 68.3%, 26 TD, 9 INT, 103.1 QBR
2017: 7 Games, 126/204 61.8%, 19 TD, 8 INT, 103.0 QBR
-------------------------------------------------------
Total: 34 Games, 720/1,070 67.3%, 65 TD, 24 INT

T. Brady First 32 Games

2002: 16 Games, 373/601 62.1%, 28 TD, 14 INT, 85.7 QBR
2001: 15 Games, 264/413 63.9%, 18 TD, 12 INT, 86.5 QBR
2000: 1 Games, 1/3 33.3%, 0 TD, 0 INT, 42.4 QBR
-------------------------------------------------------
Total: 32 Games, 638/1,017 62.7%, 46 TD, 26 INT

In 2 more games Watson has a better completion rate (67.3% to 62.7%) & threw 19 more TDs with 2 less INTs.
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
Most great QB's play their best in big games. Not what we saw Sunday/Thursday. Even though they won Thursday.
Brady has 5 games this season of sub-90 QB rating, 2 of which are absolute garbage (sub-70). His season QB rating is 90.1. Watson has 5 games of sub-90 rating this year as well, one of which is sub-70. Yet, his season QB rating is 103.4. So when he's better, he is way better than Brady. It took Brady until his 5th year to exceed a QB rating of 90 and 7 years to break 100. Watson has yet to fall below a 100 rating. Watson has improved his completion percentage each season and is currently at 69.0% completion. It took Tom Brady until his 8th season to complete 68.9% of his passes in a season, and he's only hit 66% twice more in his career. Watson had a 3.9% INT rate in his first season, but last season he finished at 1.8% and this year he's at 1.9%. Tom Brady never had an INT rate as high as 3.9. But it took him until his 8th season to ever have an INT rate as low as Watson's. Let's see, what other metric would you like to see? Watson has 65 TDs in 34 career games. It took Tom Brady 47 games to match that total.

How about we dig a little deeper and look at some splits? In losses, Watson's QB rating over his career is 94.5. It's 109.0 when they win. So he's still performing well in losses, a couple bad games notwithstanding, and in wins, he's a giant part of why they win. Tom Brady has a 104.1 rating in wins. So also, a big, big part of why they win (duh). In losses? Brady has a rating of 75.3. Brady is a much bigger reason the Pats lose when they do. Final margin of 0-7, Brady's rating is 89.4. 8-14 his rating is 89.7. 15+ points, he has a rating of 110.1. Brady's definitely racking up when the rout is on. Watson's numbers are 97.5, 111.2, and 116.2. Watson is also racking up, but he's also making more of a difference when the game is tighter. Interesting side note - 20 of his 24 career INTs are in that 0-7 split. Watson's 3rd down completion percentage is 64.36%, the worst of any down, even 4th down. Brady's 3rd down completion percentage is 58.53. 3rd and 10+? Watson has a 64.63% completion percentage. Brady is sporting a 57.91% completion percentage.

There are literally dozens of metrics where Watson is a better QB at this point in his career than Brady's career numbers, and if you compare them at like points in their career, it's not even close. The one area that Brady has hands down is Super Bowl rings, of course. Maybe that's a team thing? Hmm.

But your point was good QBs play their best in the biggest games, refuting Mollywhopper's assertion that all QBs have bad games. OK ...

Brady has been to the playoffs 16 years. 9 of those 16 years, he has a QB rating under 90. 4 of those seasons were under 80, and one season (2009) he had a rating of 49.1. 4 years over 100 rating, none over 110. And his INT percentage was in the 3.x range 3 of those years and 7.1 one playoff year.

Rodgers has been to the playoffs 8 years. 2 of those years were under 90 rating, one of them under 80. Three seasons over 100 rating, one over 120 (and he lost that game).

Brees has been to the playoffs 8 years. 2 of those years were under a 90 rating. 4 seasons over 100.

Roethlisberger has been to the playoffs 10 years. 6 of those under 90, 4 of which were under 80, and one under 70.

Clearly, the Super Bowl winning QBs never have bad games, right? Want me to throw Eli into the mix? Or point out that some of the best QBs don't even get to play in the playoffs as much as Brady and still perform better than he does? Maybe I'll go look up Payton Manning's stats.

Your entire opinion is so ridiculously off it's not even funny. It's an opinion and you're entitled to it. Just don't be surprised when 99% of the world thinks you're off your rocker for having that opinion and do not buy your central premise that he's not improving. He's improved a lot, and yes, specifically in the areas you seem to think he isn't. His INT percentage has dropped, his completion percentage has improved, his situational metrics have improved, and specific little problems that crop up in a given game are quickly remedied. The man is a fast study. So everyone else sees improvement where you don't. At some point, you have to realize it's just you. Or don't, whatever. Just don't piss down my neck and tell me it's raining.

All stats pulled from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
I would begin with a offensive line coach to get the most out of our new acquisitions. I would also toss a proven OC into the mix (even though I think every poster here is already 100% behind that). We have the receiver and RB talent, it just needs to stay healthy. Our pass/run game goes as the O-Line goes.
Yep, been saying this for yrs. Devlin needs to go.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Brady has 5 games this season of sub-90 QB rating, 2 of which are absolute garbage (sub-70). His season QB rating is 90.1. Watson has 5 games of sub-90 rating this year as well, one of which is sub-70. Yet, his season QB rating is 103.4. So when he's better, he is way better than Brady. It took Brady until his 5th year to exceed a QB rating of 90 and 7 years to break 100. Watson has yet to fall below a 100 rating. Watson has improved his completion percentage each season and is currently at 69.0% completion. It took Tom Brady until his 8th season to complete 68.9% of his passes in a season, and he's only hit 66% twice more in his career. Watson had a 3.9% INT rate in his first season, but last season he finished at 1.8% and this year he's at 1.9%. Tom Brady never had an INT rate as high as 3.9. But it took him until his 8th season to ever have an INT rate as low as Watson's. Let's see, what other metric would you like to see? Watson has 65 TDs in 34 career games. It took Tom Brady 47 games to match that total.

How about we dig a little deeper and look at some splits? In losses, Watson's QB rating over his career is 94.5. It's 109.0 when they win. So he's still performing well in losses, a couple bad games notwithstanding, and in wins, he's a giant part of why they win. Tom Brady has a 104.1 rating in wins. So also, a big, big part of why they win (duh). In losses? Brady has a rating of 75.3. Brady is a much bigger reason the Pats lose when they do. Final margin of 0-7, Brady's rating is 89.4. 8-14 his rating is 89.7. 15+ points, he has a rating of 110.1. Brady's definitely racking up when the rout is on. Watson's numbers are 97.5, 111.2, and 116.2. Watson is also racking up, but he's also making more of a difference when the game is tighter. Interesting side note - 20 of his 24 career INTs are in that 0-7 split. Watson's 3rd down completion percentage is 64.36%, the worst of any down, even 4th down. Brady's 3rd down completion percentage is 58.53. 3rd and 10+? Watson has a 64.63% completion percentage. Brady is sporting a 57.91% completion percentage.

There are literally dozens of metrics where Watson is a better QB at this point in his career than Brady's career numbers, and if you compare them at like points in their career, it's not even close. The one area that Brady has hands down is Super Bowl rings, of course. Maybe that's a team thing? Hmm.

But your point was good QBs play their best in the biggest games, refuting Mollywhopper's assertion that all QBs have bad games. OK ...

Brady has been to the playoffs 16 years. 9 of those 16 years, he has a QB rating under 90. 4 of those seasons were under 80, and one season (2009) he had a rating of 49.1. 4 years over 100 rating, none over 110. And his INT percentage was in the 3.x range 3 of those years and 7.1 one playoff year.

Rodgers has been to the playoffs 8 years. 2 of those years were under 90 rating, one of them under 80. Three seasons over 100 rating, one over 120 (and he lost that game).

Brees has been to the playoffs 8 years. 2 of those years were under a 90 rating. 4 seasons over 100.

Roethlisberger has been to the playoffs 10 years. 6 of those under 90, 4 of which were under 80, and one under 70.

Clearly, the Super Bowl winning QBs never have bad games, right? Want me to throw Eli into the mix? Or point out that some of the best QBs don't even get to play in the playoffs as much as Brady and still perform better than he does? Maybe I'll go look up Payton Manning's stats.

Your entire opinion is so ridiculously off it's not even funny. It's an opinion and you're entitled to it. Just don't be surprised when 99% of the world thinks you're off your rocker for having that opinion and do not buy your central premise that he's not improving. He's improved a lot, and yes, specifically in the areas you seem to think he isn't. His INT percentage has dropped, his completion percentage has improved, his situational metrics have improved, and specific little problems that crop up in a given game are quickly remedied. The man is a fast study. So everyone else sees improvement where you don't. At some point, you have to realize it's just you. Or don't, whatever. Just don't piss down my neck and tell me it's raining.

All stats pulled from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Lots of numbers there. The most important number is 6.

Brady is playing behind an OL that has Newhouse playing LT this yr and has the most important number. 9

So no Brady isn't playing with better talent this yr. In fact I would take the Texans talent over the Pats talent on the offensive side of the ball. Bottom line for me is Watson will have to play much better than he has the last 2 (There's another number for you) weeks if the Texans are ever going to win a SB. I'm expecting Watson to crap the bed on the big stage again next Sunday. Hope I'm wrong.
 

ObsiWan

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
You saw him against Carolina, the ravens, and last night right? He's been magic at times no doubt but had some bad moments to...
Even a genius can have an off day.
-- Wyle E. Coyote

To give another example - to go with the one MW sited (post 647), the game where the Niners beat the Cowboys to start the Montana/Walsh "dynasty" (The Catch game), Montana threw three picks that day and the Niners turned the ball over six times. What play does everyone recall? :D
Quality pitchers don't always have their best stuff but they still find a way to beat you. Watson never stops trying to find a way to beat you.

But....

he does have to learn when to cut his losses and either throw the ball away or get what he can with his legs.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
No he doesn't hate him just like he didn't hate RS. But he does hate on Watson . Big difference between hating him verses hating on him.
I hate that hasn't learned to throw the ball away when nothing is there in his 3 yrs in the NFL and I'm not sure he will learn at this point. Watson is who he is and sometimes guys dont change.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
You think hes been better as of late than his first 6 game stretch? I dont know the stats. Maybe he has but I doubt it.

He shouldve had 2 more ints against the colts then how he finished.

Running judiciously. I remember that complaint very briefly. Never really a problem I think.

When was he criticized for deep ball accuracy? Maybe he connected more last night then usual but that was never a minus. Was his completion on those an outlier or a standard? We'll see.

Explain carolina and Baltimore.

The complaint was he was going to get hurt due to his running style. We don't see him taking on LB's like he did against Dallas.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
I hate that hasn't learned to throw the ball away when nothing is there in his 3 yrs in the NFL and I'm not sure he will learn at this point. Watson is who he is and sometimes guys dont change.
Dude the coaches are not telling him to throw it away. They loves how he extends plays. Sometimes big things happen.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Dude the coaches are not telling him to throw it away. They loves how he extends plays. Sometimes big things happen.
Gotta disagree with you here. Yes sometimes big things happen and sometimes bad things happen. The point is you cant win a SB this way.

But we will never know.

If the coaches are doing this then they should all be fired. I know when BOB was with the Pats Brady was throwing the ball away, I cant imagine BOB teaching Watson anything differently. But maybe you're right.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Gotta disagree with you here. Yes sometimes big things happen and sometimes bad things happen. The point is you cant win a SB this way.

But we will never know.

If the coaches are doing this then they should all be fired. I know when BOB was with the Pats Brady was throwing the ball away, I cant imagine BOB teaching Watson anything differently. But maybe you're right.

Obrien is the one that welcomed it. Why do you think he continues to do that. That's just like the slow starts. His team not being ready to play in a lot big games.

Oh and that dude couldn't tell Brady wtf to do. Lol
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Obrien is the one that welcomed it. Why do you think he continues to do that. That's just like the slow starts. His team not being ready to play in a lot big games.

Oh and that dude couldn't tell Brady wtf to do. Lol
So we're back to we dont know.

But if you're right they all should be fired.
 

ObsiWan

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Is this a week-to-week thing? A what has he done so far thing? A career projection thing i.e., how good will he be?

...I've forgotten the original question
:D
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
They talked about him holding it too long, not that he needs to hold it longer
He basically said he doesn't have an issue with Watson holding onto to the ball extending the plays.

I'm the one that posted both pressers from Obrien and Watson.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
So you dismiss all evidence and make the assertion that team wins are all about the QB. That's an even stupider opinion than the one I thought you had.
Nope not at all.

Good thing is that we will see how Watson performs in big games. Starting Sunday week. So far Watson has started this 3 game stretch with a giant thud. I think you would even agree with this.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
He basically said he doesn't have an issue with Watson holding onto to the ball extending the plays.

I'm the one that posted both pressers from Obrien and Watson.
methinks sometimes you just want to argue... we all do it
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Then he should be fired
Not having an issue with does not mean approval or a blind eye. Even Watson admitted that sometimes he holds it to long... with the caveat that it's his style and somtimes he does make the big play. Getting scarcer now
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
Not having an issue with does not mean approval or a blind eye. Even Watson admitted that sometimes he holds it to long... with the caveat that it's his style and somtimes he does make the big play. Getting scarcer now
You can't win a SB with this style of play. IMHO
 
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austins23

Hall of Fame
I agree with you.

What would you want the new OC to do differently?
Utilize the RBs in the passing game more. Implement a dang screen pass to the RB that works. Get my 3rd WR matched up on a S or LB because of scheme.

TEs should be utilized lots more than they are. Fells has TDs but the past two games they have been invisible.

Just to start...
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
Raise your hand if you knew Joe Flacco would turn in four exceptional performances on the road to win the Super Bowl.

Or that Peyton Manning would have the darndest time even getting there.
Marino, Eli, Fouts, Grossman, Brees, Brad Johnson, Moon, Delhomme, Kelly, Dilfer, etc. That's not even getting into QBs that had terrible teams around them early, got traded/FA and then excelled, like Doug Williams, Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Gannon, etc.

Wins are a team stat, not a QB stat. That's why I delved into the split stats above - to try and see which QBs contributed to wins and losses more. Brady has contributed to losses at a greater rate than Watson has. Watson has been a slightly bigger part of his team's wins than Brady for his. Smaller sample size for Watson, of course, but you can take current season and compare or you can compare careers at similar points. The results are the same.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
That's why I delved into the split stats above - to try and see which QBs contributed to wins and losses more. Brady has contributed to losses at a greater rate than Watson has. Watson has been a slightly bigger part of his team's wins than Brady for his.
Overall I liked the research you did. But I think there has to be some kind of correction factor to account for the difference in the game between then & now.

I mean how does Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff compare to Brady's first 34 games?
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
What's the purpose of them going all out for if it wasn't for a Superbowl run. So are you saying the Texans are foolish?
Texans aren't just looking at this year, nor should they be. Good of the franchise and all that rhetoric
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
Overall I liked the research you did. But I think there has to be some kind of correction factor to account for the difference in the game between then & now.
I agree. It's why I ignored yardage and also included splits for this season in the head to head. At the bottom of it all, you can really only be fair by comparing current play and by comparing a QB to his contemporaries in a given time period. Brady was never a top QB in his first seven seasons despite picking up three rings. There were better QBs in the early 2000s that did not win Super Bowls. There were also worse QBs that won Super Bowls. One worse QB beat him in two Super Bowls head to head. Wins are a team stat.

Watson is one of the best QBs in the league, compared to his contemporaries, at a much earlier point in his career.

Now, none of this is to say Watson's legacy approaches that of Brady. Brady is one of the top 5 QBs ever. But it does show what sort of track Watson is on, in terms of productivity on the field. To say that Watson hasn't improved in the first three seasons is just false. The data does not support such an asinine claim.

And I will point out yet again, as I have on other threads - when Watson hits the back step off his drop, the ball needs to come out. Far, FAR too often, the All-22 shows that he has nowhere to go with the ball. That's squarely on scheme. So Watson could throw it away and end up going 10/29 for 98 yards and no TDs, or he can try to bail out your shitty scheme and throw for 65 TDs in 34 games and take some sacks to go with it. OF COURSE HE NEEDS TO THROW IT AWAY MORE OFTEN. But I'd rather teach a guy when to ditch than try to teach "never say die". And I'd rather pair that never say die attitude with a coach who can run an offense well enough to have some open fkn receivers when the QB hits the back step of the drop.
 


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