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The all encompassing DW4 good plays thread

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
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I disagree with this. I'm not sure who you're referring to when you say "stat/DVOA geeks" but the analytics community (i.e., PFF, Nylon Calculus, etc.) doesn't believe any sport starts and ends on a stat sheet. Sure, you have people who don't really understand what a stat is trying to explain who throw them around all the time, but then you also have people who don't understand the stats and make no effort to who refer to people who prefer a more analytical approach as "geeks."

Statistics have limited explanatory power. However, they come in very hand to refute assertions that are absolutely incorrect.
I believe stats/ analytics serve a purpose. But they are far from the be all end all that some think they are. I gave examples of why this is the case.

I do believe analytics are very good to use for example in evaluation talent in a draft. I dont believe in say DVOA because if you believed in that the Texans would've been one of the worst teams in the NFL the last 2 yrs (Not counting this yr) instead of being a playoff team that was close to making an AFCCG.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Watson ranking highly in Big Time Throws .... really supports the "chunk play" narrative being that the starting point for that statistically is 20+ yards downfield and it's also a very subjective , eye of the beholder "what if" because it doesn't even require a completion.


Bottom line , this team is 4-11 while Watson posts some pretty numbers that don't correlate to points (22nd in scoring) or wins - Only 2 teams have fewer wins and half of the Texans wins came against one of those two teams.
The 22nd in scoring issue......you ever want to consider that the Texans have scored 9 TD's via the run thru Week 16. That's good for number 31 in the NFL. NY Jets have 8 and may still wind up with more than the Texans after this weekend. The Texans are also 31 in NFL Rushing as a team.....that would have a lot to do with how the offense works and how Watson has to QB the team. This offense falls 100% on Watson's shoulders and every NFL DC knows this to be an absolute fact. I'm sitting here and listening to Joe Staysniak on Sirius NFL Radio and he's spelling out the same observations I am about Watson and what he's been facing as the Texans QB.
 
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Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
I think stats are important and these type sites have their place. What these sites stats dont tell you are the very important things like how you start and finish games. Can you pick up a 3rd and 2 by running the ball with 2:30 left in the game and put the game away. Can the ST's turn field postion/make a FG in the 3rd qtr that allows you a chance to win if you're behind or be up by 2 scores late in the game which puts the oher team in a panic position.

Can the defense get a stop to get you the ball back and give you a chance to win the game late in the 4th qtr. Can the defense make a stop with a lead and 1:00 to go in the game. These are the kinds of things the stat/DVOA geeks dont seem to get. There's much more to the game of football than a bunch of stats.

For all of the scheme talk/strategy/coaching this sometimes comes down to when you're dogazz tired late in the 4th qtr can you physically kick the guy across from you azz.
Hold up a few months ago you were saying stats were for losers. Now you’re saying they’re important. Which one is it?
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
I think stats are important and these type sites have their place. What these sites stats dont tell you are the very important things like how you start and finish games. Can you pick up a 3rd and 2 by running the ball with 2:30 left in the game and put the game away. Can the ST's turn field postion/make a FG in the 3rd qtr that allows you a chance to win if you're behind or be up by 2 scores late in the game which puts the oher team in a panic position.

Can the defense get a stop to get you the ball back and give you a chance to win the game late in the 4th qtr. Can the defense make a stop with a lead and 1:00 to go in the game. These are the kinds of things the stat/DVOA geeks dont seem to get. There's much more to the game of football than a bunch of stats.

For all of the scheme talk/strategy/coaching this sometimes comes down to when you're dogazz tired late in the 4th qtr can you physically kick the guy across from you azz.
Ok....the hot stove fact for the week has become the scoring on the first possession and it's correlation to winning. For those that have been watching football for most of their lives......this stat means absolute shite!!!! If that's the cats meow in the NFL, we could all leave or turn off the TV after our team scores on the first drive. This stat needs to be dropped from the conversation.

Now, if you want to discuss the teams pathetic running game and stubbornness to continue and try to establish it on the front side of the game while ignoring the results (too many 2nd - 3rd and long to count) then the floor is open for discussion. You want to know why the team isn't scoring enough out of the gate.....then OB and Kelly should be the one's answering this question.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Ok....the hot stove fact for the week has become the scoring on the first possession and it's correlation to winning. For those that have been watching football for most of their lives......this stat means absolute shite!!!! If that's the cats meow in the NFL, we could all leave or turn off the TV after our team scores on the first drive. This stat needs to be dropped from the conversation.

Now, if you want to discuss the teams pathetic running game and stubbornness to continue and try to establish it on the front side of the game while ignoring the results (too many 2nd - 3rd and long to count) is absolutely idiotic. You want to know why the team isn't scoring enough out of the gate.....then OB and Kelly should be the one's answering this question.
Kelly deserves most of the blame but DW4 also should share in the blame. Disagree about it not being an important stat. Having to play from behind all game is an issue.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
The 22nd in scoring issue......you ever want to consider that the Texans have scored 9 TD's via the run thru Week 16. That's good for number 31 in the NFL. NY Jets have 8 and may still wind up with more than the Texans after this weekend. The Texans are also 31 in NFL Rushing as a team.....that would have a lot to do with how the offense works and how Watson has to QB the team. This offense falls 100% on Watson's shoulders and every NFL DC knows this to be an absolute fact. I'm sitting here and listening to Joe Staysniak on Sirius NFL Radio and he's spelling out the same observations I am about Watson and what he's been facing as the Texans QB.
Not according to the experts on here. Watson has to make everyone better and that’s including the worst defense in NFL history. Man I never in my life heard any stuff like that.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
They're important for evaluation purposes. Not a be all end all proposition.
That is not what you were clamoring about a few months ago. Every time someone brought up good stats, you shot it down like it was a bad thing. Now you’re saying it’s important for evaluation purposes. And nobody is saying it’s the be all either. So why even bring that part up.
 
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ClemsonTexan

Waterboy
Ok....the hot stove fact for the week has become the scoring on the first possession and it's correlation to winning. For those that have been watching football for most of their lives......this stat means absolute shite!!!! If that's the cats meow in the NFL, we could all leave or turn off the TV after our team scores on the first drive. This stat needs to be dropped from the conversation.
I was actually going to ask if anyone had stats on the correlation between scoring on the first drive and winning. Because Clemson scored on its first drive against Ohio State last night and then got outscored 49-21 the rest of the game.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
I was actually going to ask if anyone had stats on the correlation between scoring on the first drive and winning. Because Clemson scored on its first drive against Ohio State last night and then got outscored 49-21 the rest of the game.
Texans scored first in a crucial playoff road game....then scored some more in a crucial playoff road game.....then they were up 24-0 in a crucial playoff road game. THE DEFENSE had a 24 point lead to protect in a crucial playoff road game!!!! Between ignorant coaching, Carter and a pathetic defense.....KC outscored the Texans 51-7.
 
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Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
I was actually going to ask if anyone had stats on the correlation between scoring on the first drive and winning. Because Clemson scored on its first drive against Ohio State last night and then got outscored 49-21 the rest of the game.
That’s just a little thingy around here only a few member uses as a knock on Watson. Now as you can see he’s responsible for making the defense better too. By keeping them off the field.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
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That is not what you were clamoring about a few months ago. Every time someone brought up good stats, you shot it down like it was a bad thing. Now you’re saying it’s important for evaluation purposes. And nobody is saying it’s the be all either. So why even bring that part up.
What I said is stats lie. Example stats say they run the ball better behind Tunsil than the rest of he OL. We both know that's not true.

The draft/FA process.

Also for things like when to go for 4th and short etc...

Some on here do think DVOA is the end all be all.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
What I said is stats lie. Example stats say they run the ball better behind Tunsil than the rest of he OL. We both know that's not true.

The draft/FA process.

Also for things like when to go for 4th and short etc...

Some on here do think DVOA is the end all be all.
Who are those that think DVOA is the be all? I’m on here just as much as you and I never seen anyone say that it was.

Yes we all know that stats doesn’t tell the full story and sometimes can be misleading.
 

steelbtexan

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Who are those that think DVOA is the be all? I’m on here just as much as you and I never seen anyone say that it was.

Yes we all know that stats doesn’t tell the full story and sometimes can be misleading.
Mangler for one, put out all kinds of DVOA stats last yr

Do you just want to be argumentative?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
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This year Brandin Cooks leads the team in YAC at 37th in the league , not another Texan in the top 80. Hopkins on the other hand is 7th and a 20% increase in YAC while the catch numbers are similar to last season.
In essence, you're making an inference from YAC that has *some* correlation with accuracy but a very loose one. Unless we're all ready to concede that whoever SF has under center right now is the 3rd most accurate QB in the NFL.
just adding my 2 cents. Seems to me we’ve improved quite a lot in YAC this season compared to others. Just about everybody had been making yards after catch this year, where before the caught the ball & were tackled.
 

thunderkyss

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Funny here that the very first example of a "big time throw" is a Watson TD pass against the Patriots. Watson is Top 3 in "big time throws" this season, but somehow still doesn't "throw receivers open" or throw with anticipation. I still haven't heard anything close to resembling a logical explanation for how this could be the case.

The dude mentioned “plays the QB failed to make”

Which stat is that?
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Texans scored first in a crucial playoff road game....then scored some more in a crucial playoff road game.....then they were up 24-0 in a crucial playoff road game. THE DEFENSE had a 24 point lead to protect in a crucial playoff road game!!!! Between ignorant coaching, Carter and a pathetic defense.....KC outscored the Texans 51-7.
With that 24 point lead , what the defense does is irrelevant if the offense continues to score. Not only could they not score , they couldn't even get a first down.

And for the record , the defense & special teams generated 17 of those 24 points.
 

thunderkyss

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Oh and guess what Earl when you don’t have a running game. Why! Because the offense line just can’t block worth a crap. ( not the quarterback fault) then you will not be able to control the clock/ time of possession.
I think it would help out a lot if the QB would keep the ball when the DE crashes down. Then, you’re not sending your RB into a no win situation & everyone would think twice about closing down inside opening up those lanes in the future.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
I think it would help out a lot if the QB would keep the ball when the DE crashes down. Then, you’re not sending your RB into a no win situation & everyone would think twice about closing down inside opening up those lanes in the future.
Like I said months ago , what's the point of running the RPO if you are not taking advantage of what its designed to do - create a numbers advantage either inside or out. May as well tear that page out of the playbook if you are going to ask the RB to run into a disadvantage.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
I think it would help out a lot if the QB would keep the ball when the DE crashes down. Then, you’re not sending your RB into a no win situation & everyone would think twice about closing down inside opening up those lanes in the future.
It would help out some but not a lot.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Can you find one example where that happened in 2020?

I’m betting you can’t. Before 2020, yes. Plenty of examples. 2020, I want to say none.
It’s already been posted by Earl on numerous occasions. Pull up his post and you will have more than one example. I’m not just throwing stinky stuff on the wall, hoping it will stick. You should know that I do not get down like that.
 

thunderkyss

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Ok....the hot stove fact for the week has become the scoring on the first possession and it's correlation to winning. For those that have been watching football for most of their lives......this stat means absolute shite!!!! If that's the cats meow in the NFL, we could all leave or turn off the TV after our team scores on the first drive.
The defense plays better when we have the lead. Not scoring in the first half puts us in a hole & puts the defense behind the 8 ball.

After week 1, it’s too late to change who the defense is. It’s more likely we can change the way we approach the 1st Qtr & score.
 

thunderkyss

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It’s already been posted by Earl on numerous occasions. Pull up his post and you will have more than one example. I’m not just throwing stinky stuff on the wall, hoping it will stick. You should know that I do not get down like that.
@Earl34 can you point me to examples of our Center being pushed into our QBs lap from 2020?
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
You're missing the point all together. I believe he's saying Watson needs to approach it as if his job is to win games. Not complete passes & TDs.
.....and you folks have some seriously valid evidence that backs up this claim? Since we're making claims, here's mine.....you couldn't find one Texans player or NFL mind that would agree that Watson is only playing the game to pad stats instead of winning games.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
I'm sure they would. A 19th ranked defense against the run would help too.

Like I said, I don't agree with his point. I like Watson's approach to the game.

But yeah, if Watson played as if he understood he doesn't have a 19th ranked run game, or defense we could win more games.

I don't believe that. But that's what I understand Corrosion to be saying.

Still, I went back & watched our two first drives of the Bengals game & that's exactly what Watson tried to do. The first drive, ended with Hansen dropping a short pass that hit him right in the hands, chest high. Looked like he wanted to turn & run & make a big play instead of securing the first down.

The second drive we were in 3rd & long, because we couldn't pick up more than 3 yards on a 2nd down run play. Watson hits Warring 3 or 4 yards from the LOS & Warring didn't convert.

So what you going to do?
DC's have known for the past few seasons that the Texans have had little to no running game and therefore gameplan to shut Watson down.....not the Texans offense. This has been a "one horse pony show" for 3 years now. To see Watson elevate his game under these conditions this season is pretty damm special. I believe that's exactly why every NFL talking head that brings up Watson's name sees him as being a very special NFL QB.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
With that 24 point lead , what the defense does is irrelevant if the offense continues to score. Not only could they not score , they couldn't even get a first down.

And for the record , the defense & special teams generated 17 of those 24 points.
Then why aren't you holding them accountable for not maintaining that superiority and scoring for the entire game? The HC/OC calls the plays to be ran and it's the job of the offense to try and make the call successful. I just didn't see receivers running wild and free and Watson sitting in the pocket, picking his teeth, as he perused the field looking at which target was going to bust containment. Find the film that shows Watson missing enough wide-open receivers that they would've moved the chains at will and been able to score TD for Td with the Chiefs.
 

steelbtexan

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DC's have known for the past few seasons that the Texans have had little to no running game and therefore gameplan to shut Watson down.....not the Texans offense. This has been a "one horse pony show" for 3 years now. To see Watson elevate his game under these conditions this season is pretty damm special. I believe that's exactly why every NFL talking head that brings up Watson's name sees him as being a very special NFL QB.
I'm not a believe in the talking heads.

What I do believe is at some point last yr if you can keep DW4 in the pocket his effectiveness will be limited.
 

steelbtexan

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Then why aren't you holding them accountable for not maintaining that superiority and scoring for the entire game? The HC/OC calls the plays to be ran and it's the job of the offense to try and make the call successful. I just didn't see receivers running wild and free and Watson sitting in the pocket, picking his teeth, as he perused the field looking at which target was going to bust containment. Find the film that shows Watson missing enough wide-open receivers that they would've moved the chains at will and been able to score TD for Td with the Chiefs.
In the NFL rarely are guys running wide open.

I know it may not seem this way after watching the Texans defense.
 

thunderkyss

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you couldn't find one Texans player or NFL mind that would agree that Watson is only playing the game to pad stats instead of winning games.
I'm not saying he's playing to pad his stats. He's playing to win the game. Just not doing a very good job of it considering we're 4-11

Remember, we're not playing horse shoes
 

thunderkyss

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DC's have known for the past few seasons that the Texans have had little to no running game and therefore gameplan to shut Watson down.....not the Texans offense. This has been a "one horse pony show" for 3 years now. To see Watson elevate his game under these conditions this season is pretty damm special. I believe that's exactly why every NFL talking head that brings up Watson's name sees him as being a very special NFL QB.
You're telling me Brady or Rodgers have never played without a run game? I bet they have & still didn't lose 11 games.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
I'm not saying he's playing to pad his stats. He's playing to win the game. Just not doing a very good job of it considering we're 4-11

Remember, we're not playing horse shoes
Im sorry but this is not a good assessment because again he did job in 6-8 of those losses and drove down the field in the fourth quarter crunch time minutes and we scored what should’ve been the game winner. The defense didn’t do their job. So in the world does he have to get better? That really and truly doesn’t make any sense. Or are we not factoring in that known fact?

The other two times Nick bad snap and I think we had a fumble or something.
 
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Earl34

All Pro
There , again you take the anomaly and state it as if its happening on a vast majority of plays and as I said elsewhere and you deflected , that's disingenuous.
Yep , they have a couple of those every game but in general pass protection has been adequate on the vast majority of plays.




But to answer the question , how does he make the OL better ? How bout start with getting the ball out quickly ? Particularly if you believe they are such a poor unit - Common sense would tell you that you have to get the ball out in a hurry if they are so poor as a unit.

The statistics tell the tale as well .... as I showed in another post , getting the ball out in under 3 seconds he's sacked once in 45.3 plays while when he holds it longer than 3 seconds he's sacked once out of 5.9 plays.

One sack every 45 snaps boils down to less than 1 sack in an average game .... That's making that unit look pretty solid.

One sack every 6 plays sucks and that's making that unit look like a dumpster fire.

On 46.1% of all passing plays he holds it longer than 3 seconds. That's not helping them look good.
Which is it , are they adequate or do they suck ?

He's also the guy calling the protections and quite often its a failure on his part to diagnose presnap that leads to breakdowns in protection and those free rushers.

How do you make WR's and RB's look better with quality QB play ? Ball placement .... (that's that accuracy thing I talked about months ago) the difference between in the catch radius and where the pass catcher can do something with it after the catch or is the only guy with a chance to catch it.

Last season DHop 25th in the league in total YAC but 3rd in catches. That 25th was the high on the team for 2019.

This year Brandin Cooks leads the team in YAC at 37th in the league , not another Texan in the top 80. Hopkins on the other hand is 7th and a 20% increase in YAC while the catch numbers are similar to last season.

The QB's for the top 3 pass catchers in the league in 2020 YAC - Brees , Mahomes , Rodgers.

How does a QB help his defense ? Keep them off the field. We've been thru the sustained drives conversation .... This team just doesn't do that often , they generally score quickly or punt.
As mentioned previously. This is the DW4 all encompassing good plays. Not the "OL made a good block" thread. As a result, when he makes a play and it involved escaping a sack, the OL will get highlighted for their missed block. It's not an agenda or false narrative. Start an all encompassing good OL block thread and I will gladly highlight their good blocks.

The OL is a terrible run blocking unit and they are an inconsistent pass blocking unit. You are still caught up in the 2019 narrative. They have actually done a better job in 2020 with the pre-snap reads. They struggle with stunts. They struggle passing off defenders. To often they are getting beat off the ball. Too often they are getting beat by 3 and 4 man pass rushes. Too often they are getting beat by delayed blitzes. That is more than an anomaly. It's happening every game.

You blame Watson for holding the ball and contributing to sacks totals but then give the OL kudos for the low sacks per game average while ignoring the number of sacks he avoids. Yes, at times, Watson holds the ball too long. But guess what? So do many other QBs. It's been posted multiple times, how frequently he checks down, that gets ignored. For years we have complained about the slow developing routes in this offense, but then we blame the QB for holding the ball. At what point do you blame poor coaching? Why isn't the OC recognizing that his QB is holding the ball or the OL is struggling with a defensive front and adjust the game plan accordingly? It's common sense, right? So, why don't we see quick passing in the game plan more frequently? We see it from time to time, but the game plan offense doesn't incorporate it every game. In your world, getting the ball out quickly is totally on Watson and not a shared problem between QB and OC.

When it comes to Hopkin's YAC. It's disingenuous to blame Watson's accuracy for his low YAC while ignoring the routes he was running in this offense or the increase in the number of snaps he played in the slot. Look at how the Cardinals are using Hopkins compared to O'Brien and that should explain the low YAC. If you're going to blame Watson for the lack of YAC in this offense, you should look at the YAC before he was drafted? I bet you will find low YAC is a "feature" of this ED offense.

Finally, a running game is a basic and fundamental component of any good offense. It's low hanging fruit. You know the quickest, cheapest way to make any OL, defense, QB or OC better? COACH a better running game! Their inability to run the ball in 2020 is the number one issue with sustaining drives. I've never seen a team that consistently struggle running the ball in short yardage situations. Yet, the Texans have failed to consistently utilized the RBs in the short passing game to supplement the inefficient running game. If you're going to say Watson is responsible for not sustaining drives, why don't we analyze 3rd and short conversion rate or run/pass ratio on 3rd and short?

So my point in this ridiculously long post is that when it comes to discussing this team, there is an unnecessary rush to blame Watson while disingenuously or conveniently ignoring the team wide issues. For me, the offensive issues starts with coaching, then OL and then we can get to QB and RBs. For you and many others, it starts with the QB. If that makes me disingenuous for pointing that out, so be it.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
I'm not saying he's playing to pad his stats. He's playing to win the game. Just not doing a very good job of it considering we're 4-11

Remember, we're not playing horse shoes
Before I even tried to roll a 4-11 season onto one players shoulders......the FO, GM, HC, and coordinators are going to be held responsible first.
 
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thunderkyss

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For years we have complained about the slow developing routes in this offense, but then we blame the QB for holding the ball. At what point do you blame poor coaching?
We need to go back to the first two drives of the Bengals game & try to figure out what went wrong there. He's trying to play the short game, & it just doesn't work. We're down 14-0 the next time Watson gets the ball.
 

thunderkyss

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Is 11 games the threshold for you? Because Rodgers went 6-10 and he had a 1200 yard rusher.
It would be easier for me to believe Watson is the QB we need to bring us out of mediocrity (Rivers & Chargers, Stafford & Lions) if our end result in our worst years were like Wilson, Rodgers.

Has Roethlisberger ever lost 11 games?

Yes, winning tomorrow would make me feel a lot better.
 
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