Good decisions this offseason and then hit it right 22 draft. We could be back in it. Get good players but no risky ones. It will not be the time for high ceiling high risk players in my opinion.
Cap hell does get A LOT better by 2022.
Depending on who you let go in 2021 (I'll assume Martin, McKinney, Johnson & Johnson plus Dunn for now)
By 2022, you can let go of:
Watt (age 32) will have finished his last contract year @ $17.5M is up (if we haven't dropped him in 2021)
Cooks (age 29) and save $13.0M (if we haven't dropped him in 2021 to save $12.0M)
Roby (age 30) and save $10.0M (if we haven't dropped him in 2021 to save $8.25M)
Mercilus (age 32) and save $11.5M
Cobb (age 32) and save $8.25M
Cunningham (age 28) and save $5.7M
Murray (age 28) and save $5.25M
Fulton (age 31) is a UFA. Saves $4.0M
Fells (age 36) is a UFA. Saves 3.15M, and we've got 3 younger TEs to backfill.
The above pretty much clears out most of the age 30+ players with high salary contracts.
2021 will be a bust. No real salary room, and one could argue dumping Cooks, Roby or Watt a year early only ensures the Texans of a horrific record.
Personally, for 2021, I'd keep Roby, and Watt (but only if he really wants to stay). Watt's earned the right to have his say as to whether to stay or go.
If we can re-sign UFA Fuller for the cost of Cooks ($12M), I'm doing that, and dumping Cooks. If not, I'd keep Cooks for 2021.
It's pretty sad that we committed organizational suicide with historically bad trades of pro-bowlers:
Duane Brown: We got Lonnie Johnson + 1-year rental of Carlos Hyde
JD Clowney: We got Jacob Martin + rental of Barkevious Mingo + Gareon Conley (who was never healthy enough to play)
DeAndre Hopkins: David Johnson (overpaid, rated 64 of 67 RBs by PFF), Ross Blacklock (Rated 123 of 125 Interior Defenders) and a 4th round pick.
Not to mention:
Burned a 3rd round pick on Duke Johnson (who has been overpaid)
Burned a 2nd round pick on Brandin Cooks (on a very expensive contract)