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THE 2021 SALARY CAP

badboy

Hall of Fame
I just looked & we're playing the AFCEast & NFCWest... yeah, our 2022 draft slots are going to be up there.
Good decisions this offseason and then hit it right 22 draft. We could be back in it. Get good players but no risky ones. It will not be the time for high ceiling high risk players in my opinion.
 
Good decisions this offseason and then hit it right 22 draft. We could be back in it. Get good players but no risky ones. It will not be the time for high ceiling high risk players in my opinion.
Cap hell does get A LOT better by 2022.

Depending on who you let go in 2021 (I'll assume Martin, McKinney, Johnson & Johnson plus Dunn for now)
By 2022, you can let go of:

Watt (age 32) will have finished his last contract year @ $17.5M is up (if we haven't dropped him in 2021)
Cooks (age 29) and save $13.0M (if we haven't dropped him in 2021 to save $12.0M)
Roby (age 30) and save $10.0M (if we haven't dropped him in 2021 to save $8.25M)
Mercilus (age 32) and save $11.5M
Cobb (age 32) and save $8.25M
Cunningham (age 28) and save $5.7M
Murray (age 28) and save $5.25M
Fulton (age 31) is a UFA. Saves $4.0M
Fells (age 36) is a UFA. Saves 3.15M, and we've got 3 younger TEs to backfill.

The above pretty much clears out most of the age 30+ players with high salary contracts.

2021 will be a bust. No real salary room, and one could argue dumping Cooks, Roby or Watt a year early only ensures the Texans of a horrific record.
Personally, for 2021, I'd keep Roby, and Watt (but only if he really wants to stay). Watt's earned the right to have his say as to whether to stay or go.
If we can re-sign UFA Fuller for the cost of Cooks ($12M), I'm doing that, and dumping Cooks. If not, I'd keep Cooks for 2021.

It's pretty sad that we committed organizational suicide with historically bad trades of pro-bowlers:

Duane Brown: We got Lonnie Johnson + 1-year rental of Carlos Hyde
JD Clowney: We got Jacob Martin + rental of Barkevious Mingo + Gareon Conley (who was never healthy enough to play)
DeAndre Hopkins: David Johnson (overpaid, rated 64 of 67 RBs by PFF), Ross Blacklock (Rated 123 of 125 Interior Defenders) and a 4th round pick.

Not to mention:

Burned a 3rd round pick on Duke Johnson (who has been overpaid)
Burned a 2nd round pick on Brandin Cooks (on a very expensive contract)
 

welsh texan

All Pro
The WR position. I don’t know if it’s possible to get out of Cobb’s contract, but seeing how Chad Hansen has played in his games so far, could we potentially roll with Hansen and Coutee as #2 and slot with one of Fuller or Cooks as #1.

Could be a reasonable WR corps at a much lower cost than the current lineup.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame

Texian

Hall of Fame
Exactly. Which is why I think your choice for next year is Fuller (if he can be resigned) or Cooks (hold our noses on $12M) or neither. Cobb stays for one more year.
I am of the opinion that 2021 is going to be a crap year regardless, so in order to take advantage, clean house and take out as much garbage as you can in 2021. Then you will be able to start 2022 with a clean slate and you will be so much better off because you used 2021 to get your house in order. The Texans need an O'Brien enema. From my perspective that's just plain common sense and basic logic. Fairly confident this does not agree with CEO think.
 
I am of the opinion that 2021 is going to be a crap year regardless, so in order to take advantage, clean house and take out as much garbage as you can in 2021. Then you will be able to start 2022 with a clean slate and you will be so much better off because you used 2021 to get your house in order. The Texans need an O'Brien enema. From my perspective that's just plain common sense and basic logic. Fairly confident this does not agree with CEO think.
I agree on both counts. I predict a 2-step rebuild/divestiture of older, higher paid players to try to be a bit competitive in 2021, and given they're paying for a lot of those players even if they release them early. The rest will go after the 2021 season ends, or maybe at the trade deadline during 2021. They should have done more of that this season...
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
The WR position. I don’t know if it’s possible to get out of Cobb’s contract, but seeing how Chad Hansen has played in his games so far, could we potentially roll with Hansen and Coutee as #2 and slot with one of Fuller or Cooks as #1.

Could be a reasonable WR corps at a much lower cost than the current lineup.
Texans could add either Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon on a prove-it contract in 2021. Brown or Gordon would fill the WR1 spot while Cobb, Coutee and Hansen fill out the primary WR rolls. Brown or Gordon could completely change the look of this group next season. I could also see either receiver viewing the Texans opportunity as one of the best in the NFL since they would become feature 1's again with Watson throwing the ball.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Didn't the Texan players already no vote Brown?
I remember hearing about that but was Hopkins still with the team or did that happen after he was gone? If it is the latter.....maybe that tune changes after watching the 2020 season and a some of those players no longer being with the team before the 2021 season.
 

welsh texan

All Pro
There is a way then, that the Texans shed some bad contracts on O and still come up better overall.
If Hansen/Cobb/Coutee round out a receiver corps highlighted by AB, Gordon, Cooks or Fuller, along with hitting on a late round/UDFA stud running back, and better OL coaching then the O should be better overall than this year simply by having balance.

That frees up what resource we do have to invest in sorting out that horrible D.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Forbes estimates just over $5 billion loss tickets, parking, concessions, etc which is less than expected.


About 33.42% short of last years figures $15.26B

• NFL revenue by year | Statista

I think that's fairly close to the expected losses that I posted several months back , roughly a third of their revenue.

Roughly $160m in losses per team. I think my figures earlier were around 170something million per team.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Forbes estimates just over $5 billion loss tickets, parking, concessions, etc which is less than expected.

Update

 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Update

Good point in regards to the cap article. I'm on board with this thought process b/c just don't see teams emptying their rosters for a single season loss financially only to turn around in 2022 and have a massive run on FA signings. If the cap drops, I don't see any player with decent to high value signing for longer than a season. Owners wouldn't get the big savings on player contracts they would be counting on but they would lose plenty of system developed talent. I think the agents are smart to wait the owners out.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
A handful of teams being on the positive side of their cap will be in position to sign some very good players. I think there'll be a slew of 1 year deals but some players may give in to the situation and just sign a contract that keeps them in the money for a longer period of time.....even if it's a slightly lower in dollars.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
The math I did months ago pointed to about $185ish .... that's in the ballpark.

A handful of teams being on the positive side of their cap will be in position to sign some very good players. I think there'll be a slew of 1 year deals but some players may give in to the situation and just sign a contract that keeps them in the money for a longer period of time.....even if it's a slightly lower in dollars.
Yeah , the teams with cap space are going to be able to pick up some really good players for less than market value.
Two of the top three are in the AFC South .... Jax is at the top of that list and Indy 3rd.
 
Personally - the easy 5 to get rid of are: McKinney, Martin, David Johnson, Duke Johnson & Brandon Dunn. ALL hugely underperform their 2021 cap numbers with minimum dead cap values. Those 5 get you back $28.55 million, to get down to $165M.

After that you've got 3 tough choices that yield a lot of savings, but are also very good players at positions of need, and you clearly get much worse before you get better:
  1. Cooks is probably the easiest one, for another $12M, but we probably can't resign Fuller, so this will take out our top-2 WRs...which leaves Cobb, Coutee, Coulter & Hansen.
  2. Watt is still rated #6 of 110 Edge Rushers (PFF), where we're weak. I'd leave this up to him as to stay or go. It's a big number at $17.5 million, but some fans would revolt.
  3. Roby is our only decent cornerback, at one of our weakest positions, but would generate $8.25M in savings. I'd keep him, unless we're tanking.
On O, the O-Line is terrible, but is generally young and might improve if Devlin is replaced. WR depth is worrisome if we lose both Fuller and Cooks, but we may have no choice due to cap problems. We also need new RBs, but Johnson & Johnson were garbage, so we will get much cheaper without getting worse.

On D, we can't stop the run, generate much of a pass rush, or cover very well. Not much quality or depth. Roby and Watt are easily the two best players, and both are EXPENSIVE. It's not clear any other starter on defense would start for a good defense.

There are just too many gaps to fill with only 3rd to 7th rounders plus free agents.
The new GM needs to be a bargain hunting wizard.
One of the 3 tough choices above, and the face of the Texans for about a decade, has now left the building.
Two of our 3 highest rated starters (per PFF) are now free agents: WFV & JJW, and the Texans received NOTHING in return.
The highest rated starter (DW4) wants out. Brandin Cooks was the 4th highest, but at $12M for 2021 and $13M for 2022, and w/no guaranteed money left, he may be gone too.

Assuming we still pull the plug on McKinney, Martin, Dunn plus Johnson & Johnson, we'll be down to less than $148M in committed salaries against what is now predicted to be a $180M CAP.
So that's $32M to spend on free agents, with the possibility of more cap room depending on any decision on Cooks or Roby...but way too many holes in the dike to fill regardless.

2021 will be a real $hit $how.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
One of the 3 tough choices above, and the face of the Texans for about a decade, has now left the building.
Two of our 3 highest rated starters (per PFF) are now free agents: WFV & JJW, and the Texans received NOTHING in return.
The highest rated starter (DW4) wants out. Brandin Cooks was the 4th highest, but at $12M for 2021 and $13M for 2022, and w/no guaranteed money left, he may be gone too.

Assuming we still pull the plug on McKinney, Martin, Dunn plus Johnson & Johnson, we'll be down to less than $148M in committed salaries against what is now predicted to be a $180M CAP.
So that's $32M to spend on free agents, with the possibility of more cap room depending on any decision on Cooks or Roby...but way too many holes in the dike to fill regardless.

2021 will be a real $hit $how.
If they were to keep Roby and say Hall/Omenihu/Reid as starters and found starters with their first 3 picks, (Unlikely but possible) plus used say 30 mil on 3 defensive starters, the defense could get better fairly quickly. (Unlikely)

The defense would be alot better than it was last yr. I think they can find a DE and 2 CB's in the 3rd/4th rds of this draft.

Did you have Cooks leaving in FA?
 
I can't predict whether they'll keep Cooks (at $12M, but non-guaranteed for 2021), or see if they can sign WFV (in which case they'll need the salary $'s elsewhere).
The only thing that is clear is that they won't keep Cooks AND find a way to resign UFA WFV. There aren't enough $'s to go around.
I do expect that they keep Roby @ $8.25M. That's a decent value, and they can't afford to lose good CBs on this roster.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The only thing that is clear is that they won't keep Cooks AND find a way to resign UFA WFV. There aren't enough $'s to go around.
I do expect that they keep Roby @ $8.25M.
They can't keep Cooks at his current cap hit & franchise tag Fuller. But they can definitely find ways to keep both.

Originally I was set for deep cuts & a thorough housecleaning, but this Watson situation has surely changed how the Texans are going to address this roster.

They've got to find a way to convince Watson they can put a competitive team on the field in 2021.

Most folks won't like it, but this has turned into a retooling year. They have to keep Cooks & Fuller. Dump Cobb & hope QT can keep his sht together for 16 games.

We're going to have to find a capable RB, & hope new coaching improves the OL.

I think we're going to have to rely on scheme along the defensive line allowing Adam's, McKinney, & Cunningham to make plays. & improve our DBs through the draft & FA.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
If the Texans decide to bite the bullet and trade Watson....it could be an even easier sale to package Cooks in the deal. I think Cooks wants to be Watson’s teammate more than a player in Houston.
 
Cobb costs $8.25M to keep, but $12.25M in dead money to dump....no matter our preferences, he's not going anywhere until AFTER the 2021 season.
Cobb, Coutee, and Chad Hansen will all be back...perhaps plus Cooks -OR- WFV.
I'd keep Cooks and let WFV walk. Redo Cooks contract that keeps his overall pay the same but convert some of the money into a signing bonus to be spread out. That should ease his cap hit.
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
Cobb costs $8.25M to keep, but $12.25M in dead money to dump....no matter our preferences, he's not going anywhere until AFTER the 2021 season.
Cobb, Coutee, and Chad Hansen will all be back...perhaps plus Cooks -OR- WFV.

Just looking at the math -

Cobb stays , just too much dead money.

WFV they just can't afford him. Franchise him ? With what cap space ? I heard rumors he wanted out mid season.

Cooks goes 12m in cap space and no dead money , its just too much space to pass up.

At least one of the Johnson RB's goes and maybe both - David I'm almost certain is gone.

McKinney likely a cap casualty. Not much dead money and a poor fit transitioning into a 4-3.

I'd add Martin to that list as he's terribly underperformed but I don't think they cut him.
 

Texian

Hall of Fame
Just looking at the math -

Cobb stays , just too much dead money.

WFV they just can't afford him. Franchise him ? With what cap space ? I heard rumors he wanted out mid season.

Cooks goes 12m in cap space and no dead money , its just too much space to pass up.

At least one of the Johnson RB's goes and maybe both - David I'm almost certain is gone.

McKinney likely a cap casualty. Not much dead money and a poor fit transitioning into a 4-3.

I'd add Martin to that list as he's terribly underperformed but I don't think they cut him.
I can see Cooks being included as part of a deal for DW4. Particularly with the Jets who are WR starved.

I also imagine that if you're 30+ and offer a cap reduction, pack your bags.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Cobb costs $8.25M to keep, but $12.25M in dead money to dump....no matter our preferences, he's not going anywhere until AFTER the 2021 season.
Cobb, Coutee, and Chad Hansen will all be back...perhaps plus Cooks -OR- WFV.
Where are you getting the 8.25 million to keep Randall Cobb? The dead money is pre June 1st and we could reduce it slightly with a post June 1st cut. And if I remember correctly post you first can be extended over multiple years. A trade for even a 7th could greatly reduce our costs.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Just looking at the math -

Cobb stays , just too much dead money.

WFV they just can't afford him. Franchise him ? With what cap space ? I heard rumors he wanted out mid season.

Cooks goes 12m in cap space and no dead money , its just too much space to pass up.

At least one of the Johnson RB's goes and maybe both - David I'm almost certain is gone.

McKinney likely a cap casualty. Not much dead money and a poor fit transitioning into a 4-3.

I'd add Martin to that list as he's terribly underperformed but I don't think they cut him.
Absolutely
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Ok, I don't think WFV is going to get tagged, there isn't going to be a mad rush of teams trying to sign him either. WFV is good when he's on the field but that has proven to be difficult since he arrived in the NFL. 2020 was looking great until we discovered it was being helped along with PED's.....that's not going to give any team the warm and fuzzies.

If Watson remains in Houston then the Texans can probably get WFV signed to a 1 year prove-it deal at a veterans minimum salary and bonuses. If Watson isn't here, WFV would probably try to sign with a team that has a good chance of winning since he's going to get low-balled anyways for the 2021 season. WFV is going to have to suck up the reality of 2021 and see if he can stay healthy and productive for a full season before any teams pulls out that other checkbook.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Ok, I don't think WFV is going to get tagged, there isn't going to be a mad rush of teams trying to sign him either. WFV is good when he's on the field but that has proven to be difficult since he arrived in the NFL. 2020 was looking great until we discovered it was being helped along with PED's.....that's not going to give any team the warm and fuzzies.

If Watson remains in Houston then the Texans can probably get WFV signed to a 1 year prove-it deal at a veterans minimum salary and bonuses. If Watson isn't here, WFV would probably try to sign with a team that has a good chance of winning since he's going to get low-balled anyways for the 2021 season. WFV is going to have to suck up the reality of 2021 and see if he can stay healthy and productive for a full season before any teams pulls out that other checkbook.
Okay say that Watson remains in Houston, we get Fuller back at a team favorable deal what happens next? I think I read a comment by JJ that we should have been 11 and 4 last season but I don't know how he came up with that. What three players / position can we get in round 3 and the two in round 4 that gets us to that?

Watt leaving now has us at 3 million cap space and we can add to that with selected cuts.

Cooks, Fuller, Coutee and If Isaiah Coulter steps up..we might be okay there. Watson did have his best career year without Hopkins so that could be repeated.

RBs can be had round 4, maybe round 5 so what do we use those three first choices for? I think we can go with one significant free agent pick up and I do not see a defensive back there due to high cost.


Check out Ambry Thomas in third group of fifty
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Okay say that Watson remains in Houston, we get Fuller back at a team favorable deal what happens next? I think I read a comment by JJ that we should have been 11 and 4 last season but I don't know how he came up with that.

11 wins, 6 wins... the number of wins isn’t all that important to me, as long as you make the playoffs. 7 AFC teams get that opportunity every year, we need to be one of them.

If that means you need 11 wins, so be it. If you can do it with 9 wins, great.

Sure, an 11 win team stands a better chance, I get that. But the point remains.

We need a better run game first & foremost. Hopefully better coaching can go a long way towards that end. LT, Scharping, 3rd round pick, Howard, Heck. If our coaching staff can get two yards on third down with that group, we’ll have more wins in 2021.

Defensively... I’ve said before, I’m hoping scheme can free our LBs to make more plays allowing us to focus defensive additions to the secondary.
 
11 wins, 6 wins... the number of wins isn’t all that important to me, as long as you make the playoffs. 7 AFC teams get that opportunity every year, we need to be one of them.

If that means you need 11 wins, so be it. If you can do it with 9 wins, great.

Sure, an 11 win team stands a better chance, I get that. But the point remains.

We need a better run game first & foremost. Hopefully better coaching can go a long way towards that end. LT, Scharping, 3rd round pick, Howard, Heck. If our coaching staff can get two yards on third down with that group, we’ll have more wins in 2021.

Defensively... I’ve said before, I’m hoping scheme can free our LBs to make more plays allowing us to focus defensive additions to the secondary.
Scheme won't help the 2 LBs at the top of the depth chart. 1 can tackle but has no athleticism and the other has athleticism but can't tackle.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Scheme won't help the 2 LBs at the top of the depth chart. 1 can tackle but has no athleticism and the other has athleticism but can't tackle.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
I disagree. They’ve both under performed IMO & still made the pro bowl. With better coaching, better scheme, & less freelancers in front of them, they could be special.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Okay say that Watson remains in Houston, we get Fuller back at a team favorable deal what happens next? I think I read a comment by JJ that we should have been 11 and 4 last season but I don't know how he came up with that. What three players / position can we get in round 3 and the two in round 4 that gets us to that?

Watt leaving now has us at 3 million cap space and we can add to that with selected cuts.

Cooks, Fuller, Coutee and If Isaiah Coulter steps up..we might be okay there. Watson did have his best career year without Hopkins so that could be repeated.

RBs can be had round 4, maybe round 5 so what do we use those three first choices for? I think we can go with one significant free agent pick up and I do not see a defensive back there due to high cost.


Check out Ambry Thomas in third group of fifty
The 3 I want are

Rd.3 Jordan Smith DE
Rd.3 trading back into the 3rd rd using a 4th/5th/7th, Kelvin Joseph CB
Rd.4 Ambry Thomas
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
The 3 I want are

Rd.3 Jordan Smith DE
Rd.3 trading back into the 3rd rd using a 4th/5th/7th, Kelvin Joseph CB
Rd.4 Ambry Thomas
Where do you get your running back? Sorry for the delay in posting my electricity went out Monday night and I went to a friend's house and then a water pipe broke in my building so no power no water and then my friends electricity went out earlier this evening but is now back on. Interesting, cold couple of days.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Where do you get your running back? Sorry for the delay in posting my electricity went out Monday night and I went to a friend's house and then a water pipe broke in my building so no power no water and then my friends electricity went out earlier this evening but is now back on. Interesting, cold couple of days.
Looks like you've had a rough go of it. My internet has been down most of the day.

I would look for a RB in fa unless the DW4 to the Panthers Mccaffrey and three 1sta rumors are true.

I really like Mike Davis.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Looks like you've had a rough go of it. My internet has been down most of the day.

I would look for a RB in fa unless the DW4 to the Panthers Mccaffrey and three 1sta rumors are true.

I really like Mike Davis.
really interesting steel as I know that you like several running backs on day 3.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Looks like you've had a rough go of it. My internet has been down most of the day.

I would look for a RB in fa unless the DW4 to the Panthers Mccaffrey and three 1sta rumors are true.

I really like Mike Davis.
really interesting steel as I know that you like several running backs on day 3.
I think RB, Sermon could be there in RD4.....maybe RD3 if he can perform in his Pro Day.

Also, I would keep an option open for signing Bell.

RB1- McCaffrey
RB2- Bell
RB3- Sermon

Texans could have a solid running game with this trio. All 3 can run, catch and block.
 


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