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Texans random thought of the day

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
Does anyone know the break down on all our acquisitions on whose contract expires? Going back to the RBs?
Are you looking for 2020 free agents?? Hyde, Lamar Miller and Taiwan Jones are up next year.
Roby and Addae in the defensive backfield up in 2020
Fells up in 2020.

Mingo, goodbye.

Mercilus, Reader, Dunn are up as well and likely priority, but these are guys who have been here a while

Stills, Tunsil, VH and Conley up in 2021 with a lot of other guys, but you asked on the acquisitions

 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I would like to have Hyde, Roby, Reader and Fells back with very favorable contract to the team. I think all could be gone bringing us the maximum of three 3rd round comps for 2021. It's is possible that Hyde and tight end Fells could show some thankfulness to the team and accept reasonable money. Other two I expect to leave for the money. If all four remain in my opinion that would be a tremendous coup.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
I would like to have Hyde, Roby, Reader and Fells back with very favorable contract to the team. I think all could be gone bringing us the maximum of three 3rd round comps for 2021. It's is possible that Hyde and tight end Fells could show some thankfulness to the team and accept reasonable money. Other two I expect to leave for the money. If all four remain in my opinion that would be a tremendous coup.
I really like Fells as well. It helps a lot to have a TE that can actually block!!! My only concern is Warring will be back and would we really carry 4 TEs? Or who would be the likely odd man out?
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
damn its almost like he could have done a good job as a LT and maybe saved the team 2 first round picks and 100Ms of upcoming salary!?!?
Seantrel Henderson is on IR.

Tytus Howard is on IR.

Had we not traded for Laremy Tunsil our starting tackles would be Roderick Johnson & Chris Clark.

Right now for whatever reason I think we can win the next 4 games & go into the playoffs strong.

If Johnson & Clark were our starting tackles I'd have to resort to witchcraft. I still might, but not because I "have to."
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club


damnit .. how I can I spin this so that it looks like Deshaun is solely responsible!!?? :kitten:

Here's where I give the entire offensive coaching staff their props .. starting with OBrien. I wish I could pin this post or something for all the times I'll get accused of trashing OBrien without ever giving him his due. Nice to see this surfing around.
Buccaneers, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions, Chargers... those charts show there's definitely something else that translates those stats to winning.

Maybe something the HC does?
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Buccaneers, Cowboys, Falcons, Lions, Chargers... those charts show there's definitely something else that translates those stats to winning.

Maybe something the HC does?
Hmm good point. looks like a fair amount of new/2nd year type coaches. The tenured guys are either in a hot seat or have coached up a new set of players into another contending team. Where does OBrien fit in that scenario?

Each team has a dynamic QB in their own right, so what separates the coaches when all else is similar?

hey ... OBrien is getting better as a coach. If he could let go of the power trip in being the OC & GM as well this team could be even better moving forward. My honest opinion without all the alpha posturing BS.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Seantrel Henderson is on IR.

Tytus Howard is on IR.

Had we not traded for Laremy Tunsil our starting tackles would be Roderick Johnson & Chris Clark.

Right now for whatever reason I think we can win the next 4 games & go into the playoffs strong.

If Johnson & Clark were our starting tackles I'd have to resort to witchcraft. I still might, but not because I "have to."
my point is Tytus IMO could have improved the LT position on his own. He looked BAD as a guard, it was a poor application of his talent. He flourished as a RT and in todays game the RT usually goes against the D best rushers and what I saw showed me a better run blocker than Tunsil and more disciplined AS A ROOKIE! We would still have our 1’s - Rod could have played RT. Clark swing tackle. I’m working on the premise Howard doesn’t get hurt as a LT because it fits my fantasy scenario! I’m really disappointed with Tunsil man. It’s a bummer to give up so much for a one dimensional player who is a flag machine currently. He’s an awesome pass blocker I’ve said as much, but that is just one phase of offense.

off topic - did you see Duane just mashing and grinding players the other night? I see similar nasty streaks in Howard’s run blocking.

we’re in bed with the Devil now though, and Tunsil has this team over a barrel. You have to make this guy the highest paid LT in football and IMO he’s not worth that kind of money. Bahkriari and a few other guys sure - not Tunsil.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
my point is Tytus IMO could have improved the LT position on his own. He looked BAD as a guard, it was a poor application of his talent. He flourished as a RT and in todays game the RT usually goes against the D best rushers and what I saw showed me a better run blocker than Tunsil and more disciplined AS A ROOKIE! We would still have our 1’s - Rod could have played RT. Clark swing tackle. I’m working on the premise Howard doesn’t get hurt as a LT because it fits my fantasy scenario! I’m really disappointed with Tunsil man. It’s a bummer to give up so much for a one dimensional player who is a flag machine currently. He’s an awesome pass blocker I’ve said as much, but that is just one phase of offense.

off topic - did you see Duane just mashing and grinding players the other night? I see similar nasty streaks in Howard’s run blocking.

we’re in bed with the Devil now though, and Tunsil has this team over a barrel. You have to make this guy the highest paid LT in football and IMO he’s not worth that kind of money. Bahkriari and a few other guys sure - not Tunsil.
The top rated pass blocking LT in the NFL. Yep, he's going to get paid. After the new CBA the cap is going to go up around 20 mil. The Texans are well positioned. The fact that you think Howard can play LT at an acceptable NFL level says alot.

JIC
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
my point is Tytus IMO could have
My point is the move was made for this year & we have both a LT & RT this year.

I just feel had the Texans done what I wanted, we'd have a young promising LT.... um, you're right. Sharping would be our RT & Rankins would be our LG.

Frick'n O'Brien needs to coach the talent he's given.
 

powda

Baby can you dig your man?

badboy

Hall of Fame
I really like Fells as well. It helps a lot to have a TE that can actually block!!! My only concern is Warring will be back and would we really carry 4 TEs? Or who would be the likely odd man out?
Warring as not been on field therefore has shown nothing so he has to compete and barring injuries would be #4. If he shows early that he can become what coach thought we could then be sitting on a choice trade bait situation with one of the three after Fells. There has been a need for tight ends among the teams. Also if no trade, IMO Jordan Thomas is odd man out. His 4 TDs in 20 receptions were huge but mediocre season rookie year. The question is would that year have been better if Watson was using his TEs effectively? Should be interesting TC/pre-season.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Seantrel Henderson is on IR.

Tytus Howard is on IR.

Had we not traded for Laremy Tunsil our starting tackles would be Roderick Johnson & Chris Clark.

Right now for whatever reason I think we can win the next 4 games & go into the playoffs strong.

If Johnson & Clark were our starting tackles I'd have to resort to witchcraft. I still might, but not because I "have to."
I'm good with trade but don't rule out that Scharping could have been the LT if allowed to play and learn that spot only.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Say it ain't so!


best advice I ever got from my uncle was "dont stick your dick in crazy no matter how hot she looks!!" sounds like the typical side piece when she gets traded in.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
LOL and thats the problem with this team and a good portion of their fans. They never become students of the game. Everything is face value, surface level pettiness.

IF this team had KJAX and JD they would be infinitely better defensively. I dare you to dispute that. Latching on to "sacks" in todays game shows how reactionary and miseducated you are in terms of defensive football. You probaby think Gareon Conley and Hargreaves will turn into pro bowlers dont you because they are sooooo fast. LOL.

JD not worth the $$$, but Laremy Tunsil is??? Thats funny, but what isnt funny is you could have PIMPED JD for another year (i'll frame it in an ugly way maybe you'll get more satisfaction out of the point) and this defense would look better. Nope, your Uncle Billys anger management issues got the best of him and he cut off his nose to spite his face.

Sacks Sacks Sacks LMAO. Khalil Mack is ranked 25th in sacks, does that make him a bad pass rusher? You know everybodys favorite comparison player?? Maybe he isnt as good at splitting double teams, but yea he deserves his money because that one year he had a bunch of stats. Reality is Mack is still an elite level graded player in the pass game, but he isnt getting home and it doesnt make him a 'bad' player.

edit: here is where you go to the imaginary "his knee is on borrowed time" argument.
 

dream_team

Hall of Fame
People keep saying "JD isn't worth that money". He's only making 8 mil this season. He's definitely worth 8 mil. Also, he has yet to sign an extension, so we have no clue how much he'll make next season to say "he's not worth it".

Everyone is saying "He wants Mack/Donald money!" Of course he does. I want Mack/Donald money. That doesn't mean he'll get it.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
People keep saying "JD isn't worth that money". He's only making 8 mil this season. He's definitely worth 8 mil. Also, he has yet to sign an extension, so we have no clue how much he'll make next season to say "he's not worth it".

Everyone is saying "He wants Mack/Donald money!" Of course he does. I want Mack/Donald money. That doesn't mean he'll get it.
not only that, but Houston is PAYING HALF OF HIS SALARY THIS YEAR!!! LMAOOOOOO ... then they used the 3rd on that deal for Gareon Conley. So we get Martin, Mingo, and Conley for Pro Bowler JD Clowney. LOL #potential.

Decision to ship his ass off could have been done next year, these stupid asses missed hugely important deadlines and allowed Clowneys "value" to drop further and further. These guys traded Clowney at his lowest possible value. Stupid deal then, and infinitely more stupid now.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
How do we as posters truly know what Clowney's market really was. We may have been overvaluing his market.

Lets move this to the Clowney thread.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
People keep saying "JD isn't worth that money". He's only making 8 mil this season. He's definitely worth 8 mil.
Uh... Seattle is paying him $7.5M & Houston is paying him $7.5M

He's banking $14M for this season, on the tag.
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Zach Cunningham is turning into an elite MLB right before our very eyes! Wont be long before McKinney gets phased out.


Even with the increased emphasis on passing in the modern NFL, designed runs still account for close to 40 percent of all offensive plays. Yet, there still has been a general lack of quantifiable metrics to evaluate individual defender performance against the run.

Tackles, forced fumbles, and only recently broken tackles make up the small list of individual run defense metrics most analysis has had to rely on. Unfortunately, this has led to an overemphasis on the simplistic total tackles metric when it comes to discussing the value defenders provide. To get a better understanding of an individual defender’s performance in the run game, let’s take a look at some more advanced metrics that can be gleaned from Sports Info Solutions charting data.


Tackles Above Expected
Total tackles (solo plus assists) is the most commonly used statistic to quantify individual run defense, and while it does provide some information, tackles without context can be quite misleading when evaluating player performance. In a very broad sense, total tackles provides us with a glimpse into which players are around the ball most often, but that is often a measure of opportunity and not always skill.

In an attempt to ascertain more information than we could from the basic total tackles stat, we turned to SIS charting data. The result is the more advanced metric for run defense, Tackles Above Expected, which uses personnel, pre-snap alignment, and intended run gap data to assign an expected tackle rate to each player on the field. We then use this tackle expectation to adjust the evaluation of each player. As an example, on a run off left tackle we’d expect more impact from the frontside defensive end than a linebacker lined up over a tight end in the opposite slot.

Leaders in Tackles Above Expected over the last few years include well-regarded run defenders from multiple positions. Linebacker Bobby Wagner led the NFL in the stat in 2016, and defensive tackle Damon Harrison snacked his way to the league lead in both 2017 and 2018. But before we get to the current leaders in Tackles Above Expected, let’s take a look at the 2019 tackle leaders, presented below, along with their Tackles Above Expected.

Run Tackles Leaders and their Tackles Above Expected, 2019

PLAYERTEAMRUN TACKLESTACKLES ABOVE EXPECTED
Blake MartinezPackers7921
Zach CunninghamTexans7525
Joe SchobertBrowns7521
Eric KendricksVikings7319
Luke KuechlyPanthers6713
Bobby WagnerSeahawks6720
Landon CollinsRedskins6520
Jordan HicksCardinals645
Jaylon SmithCowboys6316
Nick VigilBengals60-2
Eric ReidPanthers6021
Here we can see that most of the leaders in tackles have so far created about 20 more tackles than expected. However, we can also see that some of the leaders aren’t truly deserving of a top 10 spot. Nick Vigil of the Bengals is one such player, as he is tied for tenth in total run tackles, but by Tackles Above Expected is essentially an average player when it comes to making tackles in the run game. On the other end of the spectrum is Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham, who has made an impressive 25 Tackles Above Expected, which is tied for the league lead.

Tackles Above Expected Leaders, 2019

PLAYERPOSITIONTEAMRUN TACKLESTACKLES ABOVE EXPECTED
Zach CunninghamLBTexans7525
Budda BakerSCardinals5725
Grady JarrettDTFalcons5322
Eric ReidSPanthers6021
Joe SchobertLBBrowns7521
Blake MartinezLBPackers7921
Tackle Depth
Making more tackles than expected based on alignment and other factors is definitely a good thing, but it also doesn’t tell the whole story. This is because there is a big difference between making a great play in the backfield and getting to the ball carrier six or seven yards downfield. To get a better sense of which players are making “better” tackles we can use Adjusted Tackle Depth Plus (ATD+).

ATD+ uses the same principle as Tackles Above Expected but applies it to where on the field each tackle was made. We can estimate the average depth at which a player might make a tackle based on the personnel on the field, intended run gap, and the player’s pre-snap alignment. Based on this estimate compared to where the actual tackle was made, we can calculate ATD+, which is scaled so that 100 is average given the above factors.

As an example, Redskins safety Landon Collins’s 2019 ATD+ of 142 represents that his Average Tackle Depth is 42% better than the average player given his opportunities. This is good for fifth-best in the league among defenders with at least 30 total tackles. Below is a table of how the leaders in run tackles rate in both Average Tackle Depth and ATD+.

Run Tackles Leaders and Their ATD+, 2019

PLAYERTEAMAVG TACKLE DEPTHATD+
Blake MartinezPackers4.189
Zach CunninghamTexans2.7133
Joe SchobertBrowns3.9105
Eric KendricksVikings3.3117
Luke KuechlyPanthers3.4119
Bobby WagnerSeahawks4.887
By looking at ATD+ we further see why total tackles is an extremely limited stat. Packers linebacker Blake Martinez has racked up a league-leading 79 tackles on designed runs, which is 21 more than expected. However, he is making these tackles over a yard further downfield than second-place tackler Zach Cunningham and has one of the worst ATD+ among the run tackle leaders. In another comparison, Martinez is making his tackles almost a full yard further downfield than Broncos safety Kareem Jackson, who leads the league with a ridiculous 158 ATD+. The ATD+ leaderboard for defenders with at least 30 tackles is shown below.

ATD+ Leaders, 2019

PLAYERTEAMATD+
Kareem JacksonBroncos158
Samson EbukamRams150
Jamie CollinsPatriots146
Joey BosaChargers144
Landon CollinsRedskins142
Run Defense Points Saved
After looking at Tackles Above Expected and ATD+, we can start to get a sense of which defenders rack up tackles mostly due to alignment, which defenders create more tackles than expected, and which defenders are making “better” tackles based on depth. When evaluating run defense, SIS’s Total Points system takes these types of considerations into account and adds in many others such as yards after contact, broken tackles, game situation, and more. The end result is Run Defense Points Saved, which is a single number that represents an approximation of how many points defenders have saved on designed run plays. Shown below is the run tackles leaders and their Run Defense Points Saved.

Run Tackles Leaders and Their Run Defense Points Saved, 2019

PLAYERTEAMRUN TACKLESRUN DEFENSE POINTS SAVED
Blake MartinezPackers79-7
Zach CunninghamTexans7514
Joe SchobertBrowns75-1
Eric KendricksVikings7313
Luke KuechlyPanthers675
In this final comparison of the leading run tacklers, we can see that simply racking up a lot of tackles does not equal value to a defense. League leader in tackles Blake Martinez has actually been a negative in the run game for the Packers. This doesn’t compare well to players behind him in Total Tackles, as he is tied for the third-worst Run Defense Points Saved in the league so far this season. Zach Cunningham, who is second in run tackles, has been much more valuable to his team as his 14 Run Defense Points Saved are tied for fifth-highest among all players. The leaders in Run Defense Points Saved are shown below.

Run Defense Points Saved Leaders, 2019

PLAYERTEAMRUN TACKLESRUN DEFENSE POINTS SAVED
Landon CollinsRedskins6525
Kareem JacksonBroncos3119
Budda BakerCardinals5715
Tremaine EdmundsBills5915
Zach CunninghamTexans7514
Dalvin TomlinsonGiants3414
Joey BosaChargers3314
Final Word
Properly evaluating individual defender performance against the run is a difficult task. When compared to other facets of the game such as QB play, run defense lags behind in both useful metrics and analysis. But, by more advanced metrics such as Tackles Above Expected, Average Tackle Depth Plus, and SIS’s Total Points system we can dive deeper than simply looking at the total tackles leaderboard. This allows us to see that Landon Collins, ranked seventh in total tackles, has actually provided his team with the most value stopping the run this season. It also allows us to see that total tackles can be a mirage of value.
 


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