ESPN's Bill Barnwell has the 2024 Texans out of the playoffs.
Every year, an average of six NFL teams don't make it to back-to-back postseasons. Who are those teams in 2024? We tried to predict.
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OUT: Houston Texans
ESPN BET's line to make playoffs: -200
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN's FPI: 64.6%
The most surprising playoff team of 2023, though, might not be back. There's everything to like about what general manager Nick Caserio has built with his young core of quarterback C.J. Stroud and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense, while edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. look like building blocks on defense. Those guys should continue to improve, and that's going to keep Houston competitive for years to come.
Around that core? I'm not quite as enthused. Unlike the Lions and Packers, who were two of the youngest teams in football a year ago as they broke into the postseason, the Texans were the fourth-oldest team in the league on a snap-weighted basis. Those young core members aren't the issue here, but Caserio chose to rebuild this team by investing heavily in veterans on short-term deals who could do a professional job at their respective positions. That philosophy helped them grow quickly once they drafted their stars, but it might cap their ceiling given those veterans' relative lack of upside. The Chargers will be even older in spots this season as edge rusher Danielle Hunter replaces Jonathan Greenard, while running back Joe Mixon steps in for the departed Devin Singletary.
The Texans also added 30-year-old Stefon Diggs to the mix, and although he was a transcendent wide receiver at his best for the Bills, his numbers declined noticeably during the second half of last season, leading Buffalo to trade him away for a second-round pick. The Texans removed the rest of Diggs' contract to keep him motivated for a single season in 2024, but that in itself seems telling about where he stands heading into the year. There are more reasons to think he will disappoint in 2024 than live up to his peak seasons.
The other issue is that Houston was more good than great last season. It went 10-7, but that was buoyed by going 7-3 in one-score games. Stroud & Co. posted the league's fewest turnovers, and while I have no doubt he is a very accurate quarterback, he just posted the 14th-best interception rate for a single season in NFL history as a rookie. The Texans finished 12th in DVOA and 18th in ESPN's FPI while facing the league's third-easiest schedule.
This season, after winning the AFC South, they're projected by the FPI to face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. It's worth remembering the Jaguars, who were seemingly locked in as the repeat division champs this time last year, were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC, only to lose to a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team and have Trevor Lawrence get hurt in the process. Lawrence wasn't healthy the rest of the way, and Jacksonville won just one of its final six games to fall out of the playoff picture. This season, in a close battle, I have those Jaguars coming out narrowly on top."