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Texans predictions circa 2024

AFC South Champions, Brian.

My expectations aren't as high as some. I believe the Texans improved on a strong part of their game last year with the addition of Diggs. I don't think they improved enough on defense to get to the ever-elusive AFC championship game.

Mediocre AFC South should net at least 4 wins. But the rest of the schedule looks tough. Lots of very good passing teams on that schedule. The Vikings were first in passing last year (with Cousins but the Texans have never beaten the Vikings, 0-5), the Dolphins were 2nd in passing, and we all know about KC. I'm guessing 10- or 11-wins total. More if they sweep the AFC south but there's usually going to be some interesting games within divisions.
 
This is really going to be difficult for the simple reasons that that the Texans will average only about 65 offensive plays per game (last year they averaged 62) and their pass to run ratio was 47/53. Another reason is that Stroud did a very good job of spreading his passes around and not favoring any one receiver. Unless they go to a more open, pass happy offense, which I don't project, it'll be hard for the receivers to get the targets to reach these elite numbers. Maybe one. Which one?
Last season it was necessary to spread the love because of the lack of top receivers.
The three primaries will get the bulk of the passes and the rest will get the scraps.
 
AFC South Champions, Brian.

My expectations aren't as high as some. I believe the Texans improved on a strong part of their game last year with the addition of Diggs. I don't think they improved enough on defense to get to the ever-elusive AFC championship game.

Mediocre AFC South should net at least 4 wins. But the rest of the schedule looks tough. Lots of very good passing teams on that schedule. The Vikings were first in passing last year (with Cousins but the Texans have never beaten the Vikings, 0-5), the Dolphins were 2nd in passing, and we all know about KC. I'm guessing 10- or 11-wins total. More if they sweep the AFC south but there's usually going to be some interesting games within divisions.
They added the best edge in the NFL, a really good pass rusher from the IDL position as well as 2 other DT's. Plus3-4 new CB's in the draft, fa and drafted a S plus added another S in FA. If the LB stay healthy this can be a top 10 defense.


What more did you want them to do?
 
1000 yards is slightly under 60 yards/game per 17 games. Tank was averaging over 64 yards/game last year and would have surpassed 1000 yards had he stayed healthy.
It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell. It's what Badboy and I have been discussing, whether Ryans will stay with an offense that is 50/50 or will he open up the game some on Stroud's arm. If he stays with the more conservative offense, then there'll be, on average, 30 to 35 targets per game, split between 5 positions. Last year Stroud was very good at spreading the ball around and completed 64% of his passes. I've seen one report that the Texans have the strongest group of receivers in the league. But this means, if Stroud spreads the ball around, it'll make for a potent pass game but one where the individual receivers just don't have the elite numbers/production.
 
You'll need to buy his service, "Porky's Perfect Picks" to find that out. I believe he's running a preseason special for only $999.99.

Lol, I haven’t been in this thread since I last posted around 4/13…but now that you mention it, PPP sounds like a great business. But $999 is way too much for my TT friends. For you guys, I’ll only charge the low low price of $499! Buy now, and I’ll give you the winning lotto numbers!
 
It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell.
I think Collins, Diggs, and Dell all get the targets to allow 1000 yards each. IF they play 17 games. I qualified the prediction for 17 games played.
 
I think Collins, Diggs, and Dell all get the targets to allow 1000 yards each. IF they play 17 games. I qualified the prediction for 17 games played.
Too bad it'll be 8 months before we can say one way or the other. This discussion will have been forgotten.
 
Some of the questions/key points for me that will make or break next season

Offense

1. Can we run the ball. Running game last year is in my opinion the biggest reason we lost in Baltimore last year. Can our oline stay reasonably healthy and can they figure out how to run block will be a huge factor in our success

2. CJ Stroud regression, this would of course be the biggest wrench in our plans. I don’t see any reason to expect it to happen but it will be something I worry about the rest of the offseason. If he doesn’t regress then I see no reason this can’t be a top 5 passing offense, in fact with all these weapons it would kinda be a disappointment if they weren’t.

Defense (I have more questions here)

1. Are we okay at DT? I don’t feel great about this spot. Autry can play inside but it’s not his natural position at least recently. The other guy who’s name escapes me was disappointing with the Jags so I’m worried there.

2. Will (Will) Anderson have a sophomore leap? I think the answer is yes, he turned it on late last year which is a great sign in a rookie. Him and Hunter could be an elite edge rush duo and help dispel some of my worries in our secondary

3. We have no depth at LB. Harris seems to be developing into a good player and Al-Shair is a proven solid vet so I feel alright about them. But behind them we have nothing. If there’s one place to trust DeMeco I guess it’s LB’s but still worrisome.

4. Can Stingley stay healthy? If Stingley can stay healthy I feel okay about our secondary. If he goes down (history tells us he will) then I start to get real nervous about our corners
 
4. Can Stingley stay healthy? If Stingley can stay healthy I feel okay about our secondary. If he goes down (history tells us he will) then I start to get real nervous about our corners
You're right on the o-line. I've never seem them completely in sync. But I don't know if anything works without Stingley. The QBs that the Texans will face in the playoffs (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen) will eat the Texans secondary alive without Sting.
 
I think the offense will be as good, if not better than last year. I'm concerned about the defensive secondary though. Hopefully DeMeco pulls a rabbit from his hat or something.
 
It all boils down to targets. Diggs will likely take targets away from Collins and Dell. It's what Badboy and I have been discussing, whether Ryans will stay with an offense that is 50/50 or will he open up the game some on Stroud's arm. If he stays with the more conservative offense, then there'll be, on average, 30 to 35 targets per game, split between 5 positions. Last year Stroud was very good at spreading the ball around and completed 64% of his passes. I've seen one report that the Texans have the strongest group of receivers in the league. But this means, if Stroud spreads the ball around, it'll make for a potent pass game but one where the individual receivers just don't have the elite numbers/production.
Total yards is not the only metric as you know - it just receives the most attention.
To me, yards per completion is the best indicator of production - plus TDs of course.
 
AFC South Champions, Brian.

My expectations aren't as high as some. I believe the Texans improved on a strong part of their game last year with the addition of Diggs. I don't think they improved enough on defense to get to the ever-elusive AFC championship game.

Mediocre AFC South should net at least 4 wins. But the rest of the schedule looks tough. Lots of very good passing teams on that schedule. The Vikings were first in passing last year (with Cousins but the Texans have never beaten the Vikings, 0-5), the Dolphins were 2nd in passing, and we all know about KC. I'm guessing 10- or 11-wins total. More if they sweep the AFC south but there's usually going to be some interesting games within divisions.
I just realized that I wrote the Texans could win up to 13 games if they sweep the division. That's pretty good. The only team that won 13 regular season games last season were the Ravens. Nobody else won more than 11.

I guess my expectations are high. Nothing good ever happens when my expectations are high. ****.
 
Personally, I am bracing for a bit of a reality check next season. I think there are still too many questions, running game, OL and maybe secondary, to get over confident.

Playoffs are definitely attainable, but how far I don't know.
 
Personally, I am bracing for a bit of a reality check next season. I think there are still too many questions, running game, OL and maybe secondary, to get over confident.

Playoffs are definitely attainable, but how far I don't know.

We are in the playoffs for some time to come. What that actually translates into is another question.
These are two of thousands upon thousands that wear the scars of the Houston pro football fan. They have been hurt before. Many times before. So, it is completely understandable for them to hold on to some pessimism. DeMeco, CJ, and Hannah have allowed me to see the light of a new day in Houston football. Give these fans time. They'll get there.
 
ESPN's Bill Barnwell has the 2024 Texans out of the playoffs.


OUT: Houston Texans
ESPN BET's line to make playoffs: -200
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN's FPI: 64.6%

The most surprising playoff team of 2023, though, might not be back. There's everything to like about what general manager Nick Caserio has built with his young core of quarterback C.J. Stroud and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense, while edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. look like building blocks on defense. Those guys should continue to improve, and that's going to keep Houston competitive for years to come.

Around that core? I'm not quite as enthused. Unlike the Lions and Packers, who were two of the youngest teams in football a year ago as they broke into the postseason, the Texans were the fourth-oldest team in the league on a snap-weighted basis. Those young core members aren't the issue here, but Caserio chose to rebuild this team by investing heavily in veterans on short-term deals who could do a professional job at their respective positions. That philosophy helped them grow quickly once they drafted their stars, but it might cap their ceiling given those veterans' relative lack of upside. The Chargers will be even older in spots this season as edge rusher Danielle Hunter replaces Jonathan Greenard, while running back Joe Mixon steps in for the departed Devin Singletary.

The Texans also added 30-year-old Stefon Diggs to the mix, and although he was a transcendent wide receiver at his best for the Bills, his numbers declined noticeably during the second half of last season, leading Buffalo to trade him away for a second-round pick. The Texans removed the rest of Diggs' contract to keep him motivated for a single season in 2024, but that in itself seems telling about where he stands heading into the year. There are more reasons to think he will disappoint in 2024 than live up to his peak seasons.

The other issue is that Houston was more good than great last season. It went 10-7, but that was buoyed by going 7-3 in one-score games. Stroud & Co. posted the league's fewest turnovers, and while I have no doubt he is a very accurate quarterback, he just posted the 14th-best interception rate for a single season in NFL history as a rookie. The Texans finished 12th in DVOA and 18th in ESPN's FPI while facing the league's third-easiest schedule.

This season, after winning the AFC South, they're projected by the FPI to face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. It's worth remembering the Jaguars, who were seemingly locked in as the repeat division champs this time last year, were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC, only to lose to a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team and have Trevor Lawrence get hurt in the process. Lawrence wasn't healthy the rest of the way, and Jacksonville won just one of its final six games to fall out of the playoff picture. This season, in a close battle, I have those Jaguars coming out narrowly on top."
 
ESPN's Bill Barnwell has the 2024 Texans out of the playoffs.



OUT: Houston Texans
ESPN BET's line to make playoffs: -200
Chances to make the playoffs, via ESPN's FPI: 64.6%

The most surprising playoff team of 2023, though, might not be back. There's everything to like about what general manager Nick Caserio has built with his young core of quarterback C.J. Stroud and wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell on offense, while edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. look like building blocks on defense. Those guys should continue to improve, and that's going to keep Houston competitive for years to come.

Around that core? I'm not quite as enthused. Unlike the Lions and Packers, who were two of the youngest teams in football a year ago as they broke into the postseason, the Texans were the fourth-oldest team in the league on a snap-weighted basis. Those young core members aren't the issue here, but Caserio chose to rebuild this team by investing heavily in veterans on short-term deals who could do a professional job at their respective positions. That philosophy helped them grow quickly once they drafted their stars, but it might cap their ceiling given those veterans' relative lack of upside. The Chargers will be even older in spots this season as edge rusher Danielle Hunter replaces Jonathan Greenard, while running back Joe Mixon steps in for the departed Devin Singletary.

The Texans also added 30-year-old Stefon Diggs to the mix, and although he was a transcendent wide receiver at his best for the Bills, his numbers declined noticeably during the second half of last season, leading Buffalo to trade him away for a second-round pick. The Texans removed the rest of Diggs' contract to keep him motivated for a single season in 2024, but that in itself seems telling about where he stands heading into the year. There are more reasons to think he will disappoint in 2024 than live up to his peak seasons.

The other issue is that Houston was more good than great last season. It went 10-7, but that was buoyed by going 7-3 in one-score games. Stroud & Co. posted the league's fewest turnovers, and while I have no doubt he is a very accurate quarterback, he just posted the 14th-best interception rate for a single season in NFL history as a rookie. The Texans finished 12th in DVOA and 18th in ESPN's FPI while facing the league's third-easiest schedule.

This season, after winning the AFC South, they're projected by the FPI to face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league. It's worth remembering the Jaguars, who were seemingly locked in as the repeat division champs this time last year, were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12 and in position to take over the top spot in the AFC, only to lose to a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team and have Trevor Lawrence get hurt in the process. Lawrence wasn't healthy the rest of the way, and Jacksonville won just one of its final six games to fall out of the playoff picture. This season, in a close battle, I have those Jaguars coming out narrowly on top."
Such a hot take to meet a deadline.

Called them the Chargers.

Mentioned Digg's second half production last year as the reason they traded him without mentioning the OC/scheme change mid-year.

Hunter is 2 years older than Greenard, Mixon is one year old than Singletary, both are much more proven players than those they replaced.

Mentioned low turnovers but fails to mention that both those low turnovers and corresponding high turnover differential were in line with several other teams like the Bengals, Cowboys and Steelers so they are not the outlier that he makes them out to be.

ThE oNlY rEaSoN tHeY wOn ThE dIvIsIoN iS bEcAuSe TrEvOr LaWrEnCe GoT hUrT
 
1) Defensive coordinators have a whole year of film on CJ and our offensive tendencies.

Somewhat of a concern for me but CJ appears to be an excellent student of the game so I believe he’ll make the necessary adjustments. Plus, he’s got some stud weapons this year. I mean last season Noah Brown was one of your top options for a few games.

Still could be a little bumpier than last year though with the INT. I mean 5 really is an extremely low total. I’d almost bet the farm that total is higher this year.

2) We play a first place schedule

KC plays a 1st place schedule every year. If the Texans are as good as they need to be to contend for a SB, that shouldn’t matter. They do however probably need to avoid losing to the Minnesota’s and New England’s of the world like they did Atlanta and Carolina last year. Slaughter the lambs, keep around .500 against the contenders.
 
Somewhat of a concern for me but CJ appears to be an excellent student of the game so I believe he’ll make the necessary adjustments. Plus, he’s got some stud weapons this year. I mean last season Noah Brown was one of your top options for a few games.

Still could be a little bumpier than last year though with the INT. I mean 5 really is an extremely low total. I’d almost bet the farm that total is higher this year.



KC plays a 1st place schedule every year. If the Texans are as good as they need to be to contend for a SB, that shouldn’t matter. They do however probably need to avoid losing to the Minnesota’s and New England’s of the world like they did Atlanta and Carolina last year. Slaughter the lambs, keep around .500 against the contenders.

Agree on the INT total as he only had 3 games with a pick, but as a team there were 8 total INTs which I would expect him to stay in that same range if he plays all 17 games.

As far as strength of schedule, they played 10 games last season against teams that finished with a winning record, of which 3-4 went to the playoffs. Like you said, it was the Atlanta and Carolina games that were the hard losses.
 
Wish we were the Chargers. He has them in the playoffs. LOL!

Just surfing around looking for Texans naysayers. I know there will be none after the season.
I always appreciate a good "pump the brakes" column to keep the hubris down. And he isn't wrong on the potential for downfall after an overachieving year (looking at you 2016 Astros). This one just seems cranked out based on very basic talking points in order to meet a deadline or word limit.
 
I always appreciate a good "pump the brakes" column to keep the hubris down. And he isn't wrong on the potential for downfall after an overachieving year (looking at you 2016 Astros). This one just seems cranked out based on very basic talking points in order to meet a deadline or word limit.
There are reasons the Texans could underperform. Another year of rampant o-line injuries will not be survivable. We're still waiting to see a consistent rushing attack. But all things being equal, QBs like CJ Stroud don't miss the playoffs. That's usually how I judge a team's playoff chances. The QB and the HC.
 
There are reasons the Texans could underperform. Another year of rampant o-line injuries will not be survivable. We're still waiting to see a consistent rushing attack. But all things being equal, QBs like CJ Stroud don't miss the playoffs. That's usually how I judge a team's playoff chances. The QB and the HC.
Honestly last time I saw a “good” healthy QB on a bad football team was the 2020 Houston Texans. Made me okay with WD40 taking his towel and going somewhere else. If you can’t win more than 4 games no matter what team you’re working with, i’m not optimistic you’re the QB to win a Super Bowl.
 
Honestly last time I saw a “good” healthy QB on a bad football team was the 2020 Houston Texans. Made me okay with WD40 taking his towel and going somewhere else. If you can’t win more than 4 games no matter what team you’re working with, i’m not optimistic you’re the QB to win a Super Bowl.
That was a freaky year, for reasons that we weren't fully aware of at the time. The success of the Stroud/Ryans Texans feels real. Not fake. Not a fluke. Their wins have been earned.
 
KC plays a 1st place schedule every year. If the Texans are as good as they need to be to contend for a SB, that shouldn’t matter. They do however probably need to avoid losing to the Minnesota’s and New England’s of the world like they did Atlanta and Carolina last year. Slaughter the lambs, keep around .500 against the contenders.
Eerily similar to the Patriots' dynasty years they also play in a division with 3 teams that seemingly can't get their crap together.

Unfortunately for us but we're in a division that looks like all the teams are getting their crap together simultaneously.
 
You's expect 5 INTs from just passes bouncing off receivers' hands. But Stroud is special in that he can throw guys to open spaces, ala Brady. That limits the INT opportunities of the defense.
The other factor is that CJ throws few interceptable passes (although usually one per game) and one of the common factors I noticed is that often that pass is because he was trying to move a linebacker with his eyes and was expecting him to move and then didn't. Usually linebackers aren't great at catching the ball so that's a position group I don't mind him attacking a little more aggressively.

Also his "bad throws" are anticipation throws that just don't play out the way he probably thought they would. I'm more than happy watching someone make those kinds of mistakes because the pros vastly outweigh the cons when you have CJs skillset.
 
When I look at individual end of season awards for Texans players.

Most likely to win MVP: CJ Stroud

Defensive Player of the Year: Danielle Hunter

I could see both of those players with a legitimate shot at bagging those awards. Stingley was close for DPOY but he’s gotta stay healthy and keep convincing QBs to throw at him so he can force turnovers.
 
Somewhat of a concern for me but CJ appears to be an excellent student of the game so I believe he’ll make the necessary adjustments.
One thing I heard Cj saying this summer, while he was talking all that Sweet Honey Iced Tea... "we know we got a target on our back, we know teams are going to give us their best."

So they, the whole team knows it's not going to be easy. Since last season they've shown the ability to not let things get them down & snowball into huge problems. They're overcoming refs, non-calls, dirty defenses, their own penalties... everything.

Fight. Never give up. Fight.
 
But all things being equal, QBs like CJ Stroud don't miss the playoffs.
I hear what you're saying. & I agree.

But I like Justin Herbert. I consider him "like" Cj Stroud, but he misses the playoffs. Fortunately our team hasn't undergone the changes he did prior to last season.
 
These are two of thousands upon thousands that wear the scars of the Houston pro football fan. They have been hurt before. Many times before. So, it is completely understandable for them to hold on to some pessimism. DeMeco, CJ, and Hannah have allowed me to see the light of a new day in Houston football. Give these fans time. They'll get there.

Hmm. No mention of Caserio.
 
Sundays game didn't inform me of anything new about the Texans except that we've
got a significant upgrade in our rushing game, which is yes important but otherwise we
just won a game we were expected to and should have won.
This is very likely a 12 or maybe even 13 win team with last year's schedule but right now
with a much more challenging 2024 schedule I'm still not seeing more than 9 or 10 victories.
Until we play and defeat somebody in our schedule like the Lions, the Ravens, the Cowboys,
etc, IMO it's just conjecture that we are capable of going deep into the P/Os and seriously
competing for the ultimate prize.
 
IMO it's just conjecture that we are capable of going deep into the P/Os and seriously
competing for the ultimate prize.
I agree, we ain't done it until we done it.

Even if we beat the Lions/Cowboys/Ravens in the regular season doesn't mean we'll get past the divisional round. It's a different season, a different game in the playoffs.

& then, even if we do get to the SuperBowl... it'd be like the Bengals y'know. Can they do it again?
 
Hmm. No mention of Caserio.
No mention of Cal, either. When Hannah began to be more forceful, that beget DeMeco and CJ. I give credit to Cal and Nick for being team players and not screwing things up in 2023. But nothing good was happening until the people I mentioned showed up.
 
No mention of Cal, either. When Hannah began to be more forceful, that beget DeMeco and CJ. I give credit to Cal and Nick for being team players and not screwing things up in 2023. But nothing good was happening until the people I mentioned showed up.

That doesn’t make sense to me.

You come home to a clean house. You get done paying the maid for cleaning it.

Do you tell your wife good job cleaning the house when all she did was complain about not having a clean house?

Cause that’s what it looks like you are doing.

Caserio drafted the Texans top receiver in his first draft. Then drafted a top corner in the next. Then in the third got Stroud, WAJr and Tank Dell. In the last draft he traded a pick away for Diggs and got Mixon in a trade too.

In between those drafts he cleared cap space all the while having to work with Easterby the first two seasons.

I don’t get not giving credit just because you didn’t see anything good was happening. You just don’t want to see it because Caserio laid a good foundation for Demeco to work with his first year.
 

PFT’s Week 4 2024 NFL power rankings


1. Bills (last week No. 2; 3-0): “JoSH aLlEn Is oVeRraTEd.”

2. Chiefs (No. 1; 3-0): Yes, they keep winning. But they could easily be 0-3.

3. Lions (No. 4; 2-1): Dan Campbell’s temporary address in early February might be in New Orleans.

4. Steelers (No. 7; 3-0): Like recent Steelers teams, they seem destined for the playoffs. Unlike recent Steelers teams, they have a good chance of winning when they get there.

5. Eagles (No. 8; 2-1): It’s not too early to say that beating the Saints avoided a potential disaster.

6. Packers (No. 9; 2-1): With the way Malik Willis is playing, why rush Jordan Love back?

7. Vikings (No. 11; 3-0): Currently, they’re the most balanced team in the NFL.

8. Buccaneers (No. 3; 2-1): We’ll consider it a fluke, for now.

9. Texans (No. 5; 2-1): They really missed Joe Mixon on Sunday.

10. Saints (No. 10; 2-1): A huge game looms in Atlanta.
 
That was a freaky year, for reasons that we weren't fully aware of at the time. The success of the Stroud/Ryans Texans feels real. Not fake. Not a fluke. Their wins have been earned.
Some of us were aware that Derrick wasn't as good as his stats said he was and BOB did the best possible job a guy could do with an avg QB. I know this is an unpopular stance, but I was excoriated at the time for taking this position. Time has proven me to be correct and this isn't a patting myself on the back moment. Overrated is just that, overrated.

Stroud is such an upgrade over what most thought to be a franchise QB in Derrick.
 
Some of us were aware that Derrick wasn't as good as his stats said he was and BOB did the best possible job a guy could do with an avg QB. I know this is an unpopular stance, but I was excoriated at the time for taking this position. Time has proven me to be correct and this isn't a patting myself on the back moment. Overrated is just that, overrated.

Stroud is such an upgrade over what most thought to be a franchise QB in Derrick.
I for one thought he was doing a good job becoming an NFL QB. & yeah, I give BO'b credit for much of that.

I just think since puffing his chest & "forcing" his way out of Houston, he's lost all since of reality & most likely is no longer taking to any coaching whatsoever.
 
I for one thought he was doing a good job becoming an NFL QB. & yeah, I give BO'b credit for much of that.

I just think since puffing his chest & "forcing" his way out of Houston, he's lost all since of reality & most likely is no longer taking to any coaching whatsoever.
Let's not go down the Watson road in the Texans forum. Doesn't end well.
 
I hear what you're saying. & I agree.

But I like Justin Herbert. I consider him "like" Cj Stroud, but he misses the playoffs. Fortunately our team hasn't undergone the changes he did prior to last season.
Better GM, HC.for Stroud.

Now that Harbaugh is there I expect a change in the Chargers future starting next year.
 
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