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Should Mills be given the reins next season?

mussop

Hall of Fame
We don’t know what Caserio and Lovie will do. He can put up 3800+ 30 TD’s and 10 interceptions. IMO they will run it back with Mills in 2023.
no problem with that. Why should that stop you from drafting a potential FRANCHISE QB? If Mills cant Hold the kid off he after two years of development he’s not the right guy for the job anyway.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
no problem with that. Why should that stop you from drafting a potential FRANCHISE QB? If Mills cant Hold the kid off he after two years of development he’s not the right guy for the job anyway.
Or they could draft another Khalil Mack in Will Anderson. Remember the Carr versus Julius Peppers debate. What could they get for 1.1?

1.4 + 1.22 + 2.54. Still might get Anderson and Noah Sewell and C/OG Jarett Patterson for example. If Davis Mills has a just above average season it would be hard for me to turn down that trade.
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
Is there an objective way to determine these?

I agree. I am not arguing with you. But I believe by adjusting the bar from top 5, top 10, to top 15 will make up for the subjective nature of your criteria. I can't think of a QB that scored below top 15 in comprehensive metrics (QBR & PFF takes those subjective criteria into account) that was worth keeping.

I haven't done a comprehensive study, but I looked back on several years.
I believe there's an objective qualitative way to determine those things but not really a quantitative way to. I've said before that if Mills can be top 10 in the AFC, he's worth keeping and building around.
I've seen PFF ratings be egregiously wrong many times, so much so that I've actually wondered if the even watch the games. I like the total QBR stat much more than the old QB rating system. Honestly, neither system knows much more than we do when it comes to specifics with play calling. They just have a bigger platform to speak their opinions and seem authoritative on the subject.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
(Looking at the AFC QBs) Yes, top 10 QB in the AFC would be a nice result for Mills in 2022.
Mills played like a top 10 QB against bad defenses the last 5 games of the season.

Hopefully he can do the same against a tough schedule this year.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I think there's a big drop off after seven.

Watson
Carr
Tanehill
Ryan

But yeah, I'd be happy if Mills played in that range.

Trevor Lawrence 12?? pfft
Tua Tagovailoa 13?? pfft
Kenny Picket 14?? pfft
Zach Wilson 15?? pfft

Davis Mills had a better season (including the bad games) than Lawrence, Tagovailoa, & Wilson on a team that was just as bad.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Mills played like a top 10 QB against bad defenses the last 5 games of the season.

Hopefully he can do the same against a tough schedule this year.
Stop saying bad defenses. It’s like you’re trying to discredit his improvement during that time. It was against NFL defenses and that’s all that matters.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
The last five games of the season were played against

Team----------rank in yards-------------rank in pts
Seattle--------------28---------------------12
Jacksonville---------20---------------------28
LA Chargers---------23---------------------30
San Francisco-------3----------------------10
Tennessee-----------12---------------------6


AVG-----------------17----------------------17
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
If Mills is your guy, he is your franchise quarterback. You can then draft a quarterback in the later rounds. And because you want to build around Mills.
We don’t know if Mills is our guy or not. No one does. Until its blatantly obvious Mills is THE GUY!, I’m not passing up the rare opportunity to draft a QB with franchise changing abilities and potential. That one draft pick isn’t going to stop me nor is it going to stop the Texans from being able to build around Mills.

remember I’m saying a franchise QB. That likely means Mills wasnt Lights out or the defense was a complete disaster Or both. Mills has a full year and the entire organizations backing. If by the end of the year there is any doubt he’s THE MAN!, sorry I’m not passing up QB if the right ones there.
 

mussop

Hall of Fame
I'm pretty sure the Texans do. Look who they brought in to fill the QB room. They're acting like he was a 1st round pick

& I think they should.

Unless he busts in 2022, I don't think they'll draft a future starting QB in 2023.
They know he deserves a chance. Let’s see what they know after this season. For the record, I really like Mills and hope he makes this subject pointless. I think he can And will.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Stop saying bad defenses. It’s like you’re trying to discredit his improvement during that time. It was against NFL defenses and that’s all that matters.
He improved the talent around him needed to improve. If you noticed the offense worked well against bad defenses because the talent level on the ol vs dl was about the same. When he played a top 10 defense like the 49ers he didn't really struggle. But the offense as a whole struggled through no fault of Mills.

This season Mills and Jordan are the keys to unlocking the offense if the ol plays like it should and stays healthy. With an improved ol I expect the run game to be in the 15-18 range which will help the offense function properly.
 
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Jack Burton

Veteran
He improved the talent around him needs to improve. If you noticed the offense worked well against bad defenses because the talent level on the ol vs do was about the same. When he played a top 10 defense like the 49ers he didn't really struggle. But the offense as a whole struggled through no fault of Mills.

This season Mills and Jordan are the keys to unlocking the offense if the ol plays like it should and stays healthy. With an improved ol I expect the run game to be in the 15-18 range which will help the offense function properly.
Be really nice is Pierce shows out and explodes too.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
This season Mills and Jordan are the keys to unlocking the offense if the ol plays like it should and stays healthy. With an improved ol I expect the run game to be in the 15-18 range which will help the offense function properly.
I think this will be key. If we can keep teams honest I’m confident Davis will excel
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
We don’t know if Mills is our guy or not. No one does. Until its blatantly obvious Mills is THE GUY!, I’m not passing up the rare opportunity to draft a QB with franchise changing abilities and potential. That one draft pick isn’t going to stop me nor is it going to stop the Texans from being able to build around Mills.

remember I’m saying a franchise QB. That likely means Mills wasnt Lights out or the defense was a complete disaster Or both. Mills has a full year and the entire organizations backing. If by the end of the year there is any doubt he’s THE MAN!, sorry I’m not passing up QB if the right ones there.
The coaches and the GM have said several times that Mills were their guy. It’s only the fans and local media heads who act like they can’t grasp that fact. We’re the ones that have to come up with all these IF’s.
Again that’s you, the actual people that are in charge really don’t care what we think. They actually factor in everything that actually went on. What if the offensive line doesn’t improve? Could that be a reason why Mills didn’t perform up to his potential? What if we don’t see improvement in the running game? What if they defense doesn’t improve? All that plays apart you know.
Man we just needs to exercise some patience. Have you forgotten that circus show under Bill O’Brien and all the quarterbacks we had in that short time? Do you want to go through that crazy stuff again? One last thing, you can draft a quarterback in the first round but that doesn’t guarantee you anything. Now we have to wait a few more years for him to get acclimated to the NFL level of play.
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Mills is their guy right now. That is subject to change. And that is what @mussop is suggesting, the possibility of a shift in the Texans belief in Mills.
I think it’s the same shift you might see in a team who drafted guys like Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Jonny Manzell, or Trevor Lawrence.

or Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, or Kirk Cousin.

This isn’t like drafting Paxton Lynch, Kevin Hogan, or Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Texans drafted Davis Mills thinking maybe he’s the real deal, like drafting Garoppolo or Prescott.

But now they’re in the “we found our guy” mode like when Seattle decided Russell Wilson was their guy.

& he’ll be their guy until he’s not. They’re not going into the season waiting for Davis Mills to do something to prove he’s the guy.

Basically we’re in the same situation we were in when half of us were wanting the Texans to get a “better” QB & the other half was wanting fans to give Matt Schaub a chance.
 

Lucky

Trust Me. I Know What I'm Doing.
Staff member
But now they’re in the “we found our guy” mode like when Seattle decided Russell Wilson was their guy.
More like the "we may have something here" mode, like when 2013 Tampa Bay 3rd round pick Mike Glennon put up solid numbers (19 TD, 9 INT) on a 4-12 team.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
More like the "we may have something here" mode, like when 2013 Tampa Bay 3rd round pick Mike Glennon put up solid numbers (19 TD, 9 INT) on a 4-12 team.
Did you pick Glennon because of the long neck thing?
 

JPPT1974

August is Here
For now he is the go to guy. Unless Jimmy G will be traded from SF to Houston. But he is the guy and hope he can really reach his full potential there.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
We got two more drafts with two picks in the 1st round coming up. We can get a QB if Mills doesn't cut it. No need to worry about it this season, even if Mills stinks up the place. Which I don't think he will.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
QB (1st season)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Davis Mills
66.8​
16/10​
6.8​
88.8​
Gardner Minshew
60.6​
21/6​
7.0​
91.2​
Baker Mayfield
63.8​
27/14​
7.7​
93.7​
Daniel Jones
61.9​
24/12​
6.6​
87.7​
Drew Lock* (1st 5 starts)​
64.1​
7/3​
6.5​
89.7​
Mills* (1st 6 starts)​
69.1​
6/7​
6.5​
82.3​

Anybody thinking those are 'we found our guy' type QBs after 1 season?




QB (2nd year)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Gardner Minshew
66.1​
16/5​
7.2​
95.9​
Baker Mayfield
59.4​
22/21​
7.2​
78.8​
Daniel Jones
62.5​
11/10​
6.6​
80.4​
Drew Lock
57.3​
16/15​
6.6​
75.4​

Minshew actually looks like the best of the bunch there and the Jags drafted Lawrence anyway.

Don't be surprised if Mills struggles in year 2 now that there's some film on him and DCs have time to break down his tendencies. If he can make the adjustments though, then we might be onto something. Either way, he's definitely going to get his opportunity.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
QB (1st season)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Davis Mills
66.8​
16/10​
6.8​
88.8​
Gardner Minshew
60.6​
21/6​
7.0​
91.2​
Baker Mayfield
63.8​
27/14​
7.7​
93.7​
Daniel Jones
61.9​
24/12​
6.6​
87.7​
Drew Lock* (1st 5 starts)​
64.1​
7/3​
6.5​
89.7​
Mills* (1st 6 starts)​
69.1​
6/7​
6.5​
82.3​
Anybody thinking those are 'we found our guy' type QBs after 1 season?





QB (2nd year)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Gardner Minshew
66.1​
16/5​
7.2​
95.9​
Baker Mayfield
59.4​
22/21​
7.2​
78.8​
Daniel Jones
62.5​
11/10​
6.6​
80.4​
Drew Lock
57.3​
16/15​
6.6​
75.4​
Minshew actually looks like the best of the bunch there and the Jags drafted Lawrence anyway.


Don't be surprised if Mills struggles in year 2 now that there's some film on him and DCs have time to break down his tendencies. If he can make the adjustments though, then we might be onto something. Either way, he's definitely going to get his opportunity.
66.8%

That's higher than Justin Herbert & Dak Prescott

Highest completion percentage by a rookie QB in NFL history
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
QB (1st season)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Davis Mills
66.8​
16/10​
6.8​
88.8​
Gardner Minshew
60.6​
21/6​
7.0​
91.2​
Baker Mayfield
63.8​
27/14​
7.7​
93.7​
Daniel Jones
61.9​
24/12​
6.6​
87.7​
Drew Lock* (1st 5 starts)​
64.1​
7/3​
6.5​
89.7​
Mills* (1st 6 starts)​
69.1​
6/7​
6.5​
82.3​
Anybody thinking those are 'we found our guy' type QBs after 1 season?





QB (2nd year)
Comp%
TD/INT
Y/A
PR
Gardner Minshew
66.1​
16/5​
7.2​
95.9​
Baker Mayfield
59.4​
22/21​
7.2​
78.8​
Daniel Jones
62.5​
11/10​
6.6​
80.4​
Drew Lock
57.3​
16/15​
6.6​
75.4​
Minshew actually looks like the best of the bunch there and the Jags drafted Lawrence anyway.


Don't be surprised if Mills struggles in year 2 now that there's some film on him and DCs have time to break down his tendencies. If he can make the adjustments though, then we might be onto something. Either way, he's definitely going to get his opportunity.
I like Minshew as a transition guy. I thought the Texans should've given a 5th or 6th for him.
 


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