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Rebuilding this team

badboy

Hall of Fame
I wouldn't if I was Watson and I would advise against it if I was his agent.

Let me lay a scenario out for you.

Watson is chilling in Cabo pretending that football is still just something he plays for fun when he hears the news about Caserio. Maybe he's pissed, maybe he's not but either way he's already got people blowing up his phone asking what he thinks. Now Watson wants more say in who his HC will be, any QB would, and he knows he can use this just by going radio silent. Maybe he could, and does, send sends out another cryptic tweet because he saw what happened with his last one after Hopkins was traded. Or maybe while checking his phone to catch up he learns about the Blake ruling or maybe he sees how close the Georgia run off is or maybe he realizes he can kill a bunch of birds with one tweet. So he sends out another cryptic tweet that says nothing and can apply to everything from wanting a trade to him naming his favorite song from Frozen 2. (I have a two year old and lots of young nieces and nephews so yes I know the Disney songs that well.)

Then he just sits back and lets the media do what they do and run wild with the story and do his job for him. Texans start to feel pressured because they finally got the GM they have been chasing 3 years and first thing that happens is a national story that Watson is unhappy and wants out. Plus has them on the hook with a big contract and a no trade clause so its not like they can do anything to him. Meanwhile Watson has full plausible deniability because he told them he would be out of pocket and he didn't mean that tweet directed at the Texans it was just unlucky timing and "Oh by the way guys, about that HC search I have a few people I'd like to suggest that I thought up while in Cabo."

I have zero proof of any of this but then no one has had any proof about anything really so why should that get in the way of a good story.
The problem as I see it if Dashaun does want out he should not be tweeting at all. Texans more likely to trade him if other teams don't see them as over a barrel. Hop trade had to stick with Cal even if mom pushed it. He waits, see Bieniemy land in New York and waives to connect there with a team that he or at least his Agent knows has the cap space and draft picks.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
Much of the topic the last few days on this message board has been fantasy and wishful thinking.

What do you really expect to happen in 2021? What's (in your opinion) realistic?

First and foremost, I expect Watson to be starting game one for the Houston Texans in 2021. Other players that I expect will remain on the roster (mainly because of their dead cap hits) that have been talked about on this board lately (this season):

Mercilus ($15,000,000+)
Cunningham (18+)
Cobb (12.25)
Eric Murray (6.5)
David Johnson (2.1)
McKinney (1.5)

As much as I'd love to jettison Murray and Mercilus out of here, I'd joyfully drive them to the airport, it would be difficult to trade them. McKinney is interesting because of how Adams played in his absence but I feel the Texans have a better chance of stopping the run with McKinney.

Unrestricted Free Agents that I expect the Texans to let walk:
McCarron
Scarlett
Conley
Fuller
Dylan Cole
Hargreaves
Michael Thomas
Kyle Emanuel
Jon Weeks
Phillip Gaines

I'd like to keep Fuller but I don't expect he'll be in the Texans's price range. The Texans should (and someone correct me if I'm wrong) receive some compensation in 2022 for losing him.

UFA's that I expect the Texans to retain:
Roderick Johnson
Tyrell Adams
Brent Qvale

Of zero dead cap notables I expect the Texans will pay - Cooks, Crossen, Chad Hansen, and Scottie Phillips. I expect JJ Watt and Duke Johnson will playing for some other team in 2021.
Merci in a pre June 1st trade saves us $7.5 m and dead is 4.5 so he should go if possible. Cunningham dead only $9.6 but i do not see him leaving at least this season.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Sure there's several factors that play into bringing home the ultimate prize.

Being able to put a quality team around your QB is definitely one of them and you have to have money free to do that. When you tie up ~20% of your cap space into one player , its damn hard to fill the other 54 roster spots with enough quality.

The magic number so far has been below 13.2% which , again was the very first year of the salary cap era - 1994.
I'd say that much history is pretty telling when we've had some really great QB's in that time period earn greater amounts and every one of them failed - Brady , Brees , Favre ,Warner , Aikman , Rodgers , Peyton , Eli , Roethlisberger , Wilson.
Every one of those guys won superbowls (19 among them).... Not a single one did it earning anything close to 13%.
They had to have money to spend on quality players around them.

Nope , its not the only thing but history shows its a starting point - That's why in this era of football the best chance most teams have to win it all is in their star QB's rookie deals , once they are playing in their second contracts , they tie up such large percentages of the cap that its just about impossible to put enough players around them.

The Texans mistake wasn't extending Watson , it was failing to take the impact of Covid on the cap into consideration. They paid him like the salary cap had continued its $10m per year gains.
If he won't reduce those cap hits in 22 & 23 they'll have a hard time putting much talent around him and that's a fact.
This is where you use the 13.2% figure.

Everybody knows that 13.2% is a fact, and not an opinion.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Like I've stated, the quickest way to any rebuild is with a qb. When GB had a couple of down years, they added the Smith boys and got better. When the Saints were 7-9 a couple of seasons, they had 1 draft and turned it around. I believe Watson is an eraser type of qb. He can make up for alot of holes on your squad. There aren't many in the NFL that can do that. I mean his oline has been bottom 3rd and his backs have been avg at best. He's had Hopkins , thats it in the wr core, overcome bad coaching and a deterioration on the defense and still won games. If they hit the reset button, there aren't any guarantees they will ever get anything close to Watson. In the same draft of 2017, Shanny and Lynch chose Solomon Thomas over Mahomes and Watson. Let that sink in.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Like I've stated, the quickest way to any rebuild is with a qb. When GB had a couple of down years, they added the Smith boys and got better. When the Saints were 7-9 a couple of seasons, they had 1 draft and turned it around. I believe Watson is an eraser type of qb. He can make up for alot of holes on your squad. There aren't many in the NFL that can do that. I mean his oline has been bottom 3rd and his backs have been avg at best. He's had Hopkins , thats it in the wr core, overcome bad coaching and a deterioration on the defense and still won games. If they hit the reset button, there aren't any guarantees they will ever get anything close to Watson. In the same draft of 2017, Shanny and Lynch chose Solomon Thomas over Mahomes and Watson. Let that sink in.

Well they were able to hit on that particular draft when selecting Watson. If he is granted his demands, let's hope NC hits on a QB in this years draft.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Like I've stated, the quickest way to any rebuild is with a qb. When GB had a couple of down years, they added the Smith boys and got better. When the Saints were 7-9 a couple of seasons, they had 1 draft and turned it around. I believe Watson is an eraser type of qb. He can make up for alot of holes on your squad. There aren't many in the NFL that can do that. I mean his oline has been bottom 3rd and his backs have been avg at best. He's had Hopkins , thats it in the wr core, overcome bad coaching and a deterioration on the defense and still won games. If they hit the reset button, there aren't any guarantees they will ever get anything close to Watson. In the same draft of 2017, Shanny and Lynch chose Solomon Thomas over Mahomes and Watson. Let that sink in.
How many championships have the Packers won since Rodgers signed that big extension?
 

Corrosion

Idealist
Staff member
This is where you use the 13.2% figure.

Everybody knows that 13.2% is a fact, and not an opinion.
The way you stated that "Corrosion said You cant spend 13.2 and field a competitive team" is a mischaracterization of my statement.

If I were to draw the line , it would be much lower than the now record 13.88% that's been done once by "The GOAT".

It would also be lower than the 11% that's been done by three first ballot HOFER's.

I'd probably put the number closer to 10% or less being a prudent figure - even if your QB is Brady as better players around that great QB increase the odds.

Now compare that to the 20%+ the Texans gave Watson in a very poor economic climate which was the crux of that whole discussion.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
The way you stated that "Corrosion said You cant spend 13.2 and field a competitive team" is a mischaracterization of my statement.

If I were to draw the line , it would be much lower than the now record 13.88% that's been done once by "The GOAT".

It would also be lower than the 11% that's been done by three first ballot HOFER's.

I'd probably put the number closer to 10% or less being a prudent figure - even if your QB is Brady as better players around that great QB increase the odds.

Now compare that to the 20%+ the Texans gave Watson in a very poor economic climate which was the crux of that whole discussion.
To that end, I had already said that when the time comes, the Texans, like any other team without OB as a GM, would simply restructure his deal.
Also, with the QB salary scale on the rise to no end, the discrepancies between the top tier QBs and the second tier would narrow.
Also, with a top-level QB, it's easier for a team to attract some of those FAs that are willing to take less in the quest of a ring.
These kinds of teams can also afford to either employ lesser skill players/linemen and/or fast-track the younger players.
With a middling QB, you would need a better Online and/or skilled players.
You would have to pay for those. Those guys want more money to come to teams with middling QBs
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
How many championships have the Packers won since Rodgers signed that big extension?
You're in the nfc championship game and lose. You're a championship caliber team that year regardless of the contract. GB is the classic example of only relying on the draft vs a blend. They're about to let Aaron Jones become free along with some ol players. Instead of adding to get over the hump, they are subtraction.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
You're in the nfc championship game and lose. You're a championship caliber team that year regardless of the contract. GB is the classic example of only relying on the draft vs a blend. They're about to let Aaron Jones become free along with some ol players. Instead of adding to get over the hump, they are subtraction.
Depends on how you feel about AJ Dillon.

That was a very proactive pick, as was Love.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Depends on how you feel about AJ Dillon.

That was a very proactive pick, as was Love.

Jones avg 9 tds a season a 5.2 ypc. Its going to be hard to replace that. Not only that, again, you're losing your 3rd best offensive player. When you're that close, why not keep him and add? This has been GB problem.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club

Jones avg 9 tds a season a 5.2 ypc. Its going to be hard to replace that. Not only that, again, you're losing your 3rd best offensive player. When you're that close, why not keep him and add? This has been GB problem.
Maybe that's because Rodgers is taking up to much of the cap. So they have to let really good players walk.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Nobody has figured out how to massage it in 27 yrs

If anybody can do it, it will be Rodgers or Mahomes.
They've been doing it for 27 yrs. How did the Rams sign all those players during to Greatest Show on Turf era? How did Dallas just free up 19m? Do you know how cash over cap works? There was absolutely zero reasons why GB couldn't at least put the transition tag on Jones, but its typical GB. 1 SB appearance in Rodgers career so far is criminal
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
They've been doing it for 27 yrs. How did the Rams sign all those players during to Greatest Show on Turf era? How did Dallas just free up 19m? Do you know how cash over cap works? There was absolutely zero reasons why GB couldn't at least put the transition tag on Jones, but its typical GB. 1 SB appearance in Rodgers career so far is criminal
Rodgers is taking up more than 15% of the cap. 27 yrs says there will be no Lombardi's. Even though if there were 2 current QB's that could beat the trend it would be Mahomes/Rodgers.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Rodgers is taking up more than 15% of the cap. 27 yrs says there will be no Lombardi's. Even though if there were 2 current QB's that could beat the trend it would be Mahomes/Rodgers.
What does that have to do with resigning Jones? Absolutely nothing. He can take up 20% and that wouldn't stop them from paying their best players on a team that was superbowl worthy. So tell me the qb you would rather have right now taking up less than your 14% cap number than Rodgers
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
They've been doing it for 27 yrs. How did the Rams sign all those players during to Greatest Show on Turf era? How did Dallas just free up 19m? Do you know how cash over cap works? There was absolutely zero reasons why GB couldn't at least put the transition tag on Jones, but its typical GB. 1 SB appearance in Rodgers career so far is criminal
Rodgers is taking up more than 15% of the cap. 27 yrs says there will be no Lombardi's. Even though if there were 2 current QB's that could beat the trend it would be Mahomes/Rodgers.
What does that have to do with resigning Jones? Absolutely nothing. He can take up 20% and that wouldn't stop them from paying their best players on a team that was superbowl worthy. So tell me the qb you would rather have right now taking up less than your 14% cap number than Rodgers
Until the numbers change over a period of yrs the numbers are what they are,
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Rodgers is taking up more than 15% of the cap. 27 yrs says there will be no Lombardi's. Even though if there were 2 current QB's that could beat the trend it would be Mahomes/Rodgers.


Until the numbers change over a period of yrs the numbers are what they are,
So a qb can be the highest paid player in the NFL, but as long as he doesn't count 14% of the cap, he can win a superbowl correct? You understand how ridiculous that sound?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
So a qb can be the highest paid player in the NFL, but as long as he doesn't count 14% of the cap, he can win a superbowl correct? You understand how ridiculous that sound?
Unfortunately there's 27 yrs of evidence out there.

You can believe the numbers or not. But 27 yrs isn't a short period of time. Believe me I know. LOL
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
As I mentioned.....Mahomes is the first one to come back to the table to extend his new contract to reduce his cap hit in the upcoming seasons. I guess he'd like to remain or have the best opportunity to remain a winner first and foremost.

Watson could certainly do the same thing but QB1's only make that sacrifice when they have a winning "team" around them. Makes sense.....these uys are thinking long-term versus the today mentality.

I've stated this on so many sites, these professional players have to understand that their big money days are only for so long.....at some point they have to have a plan for the future when that big payday is gone. Invest in yourself, stay with the team (if they're winners) where the fans support them, and establish business roots in your backyard. The most important thingis to have something viable that will allow the athlete to step away from the game on his terms and have an income derived from a market that values that individual. All that squabbling over the "today" money on the contract can be subsidized by national and local endorsement money while a local business would also thrive b/c of the name.
 

Double Barrel

Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
So a qb can be the highest paid player in the NFL, but as long as he doesn't count 14% of the cap, he can win a superbowl correct? You understand how ridiculous that sound?
Please provide an example of the highest paid QB in the NFL that doesn't count at least 14% of the cap. And show that example winning a SB. It should be easy if the counter argument is ridiculous.

I've never known cold, hard facts to be ridiculous. Agendas yes, but just facts? Nahhhh.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Please provide an example of the highest paid QB in the NFL that doesn't count at least 14% of the cap. And show that example winning a SB. It should be easy if the counter argument is ridiculous.

I've never known cold, hard facts to be ridiculous. Agendas yes, but just facts? Nahhhh.
That's my argument on the 14% . There have been quiet a few qbs who were too 3 highest paid in the entire nfl and not be a 14% Qb salaries weren't outpacing the salary cap like it is now especially after the passage of the rookie salary cap instituted in 2011. It took awhile for teams to build around the qb vs the old model that rewarded Brad Johnson and Trent Differ super bowls. Troy Aikman contract avg he signed in 1993 was 5.5m. If the salary cap was 36m, what % of the cap did he occupy?
 

Double Barrel

Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
That's my argument on the 14% . There have been quiet a few qbs who were too 3 highest paid in the entire nfl and not be a 14% Qb salaries weren't outpacing the salary cap like it is now especially after the passage of the rookie salary cap instituted in 2011. It took awhile for teams to build around the qb vs the old model that rewarded Brad Johnson and Trent Differ super bowls. Troy Aikman contract avg he signed in 1993 was 5.5m. If the salary cap was 36m, what % of the cap did he occupy?
Fair enough.

Check out this thread and watch Eisen's video when you get a chance. He does a good job of laying it all out there.
 


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