To Spend or Not to Spend: Rich Eisen on How Paying a QB Impacts Teams' Super Bowl Chances

[Double Barrel]

This has been an on-going debate on this forum and has been reported on by a variety of national media sources. Eisen does a great job of breaking it down here:

Here's a couple of screen shots from it:

 

[IDEXAN]

I check out Eisens show almost daily and of course he's got a lot of time on his hands right now during the NFL offseason.
For example he will probably spend a ton of time today on the utterly meaningless and frivilous lawsuit involving DW4 that's gonna lead the latest news cycle of the NFL
for the next 24 hours.
But his point here is obvious and valid.

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

Didn’t we hear stuff about how Watsons contract was prohibitive to building a good team around him?

Sure seems like a bunch of b.s after watching that.

Anywho, if the Texans have to move a qb like Watson who is only taking up 8% of the cap they will maybe gift another team a serious shot at a Super Bowl and concurrently set their own team back even further.

I’m not sure what/if anything can be done but I’m pretty sure they know keeping Watson is pretty close to mandatory.

 

[badboy]

I check out Eisens show almost daily and of course he's got a lot of time on his hands right now during the NFL offseason.
For example he will probably spend a ton of time today on the utterly meaningless and frivilous lawsuit involving DW4 that's gonna lead the latest news cycle of the NFL
for the next 24 hours.
But his point here is obvious and valid.

Frivolous lawsuit perhaps. I'm not sure it is meaning less.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

This lawsuit stinks badly......mostly due to the timing. If it's the alleged victim.....perfect time to squeeze Watson for a 6 figure settlement while he's pushing for a very visible trade. Watson and his agent not getting what they want fast enough so they go the mile by creating this scenario to push the Texans to trade him now. Maybe the Texans want to play dirty by driving his value down. This could also justify sitting him for multiple games and attempt to recoup the signing bonus they gave him.

 

[welsh texan]

If the new TV deal bumps the cap to $250M and rising then $40m QB contracts are going to look more manageable.
Pat Mahomes being tied in for the majority of his prime will look a steal!

 

[steelbtexan]

S

Didn’t we hear stuff about how Watsons contract was prohibitive to building a good team around him?

Sure seems like a bunch of b.s after watching that.

Anywho, if the Texans have to move a qb like Watson who is only taking up 8% of the cap they will maybe gift another team a serious shot at a Super Bowl and concurrently set their own team back even further.

I’m not sure what/if anything can be done but I’m pretty sure they know keeping Watson is pretty close to mandatory.

Starting in 2022 DW4's going to be on the bad side of the numbers. Unless you think the Texans are going to win a SB next year then you move him.

 

[OptimisticTexan]

S

Starting in 2022 DW4's going to be on the bad side of the numbers. Unless you think the Texans are going to win a SB next year then you move him.

Correct. No team can enter an official rebuild with a 40M dollar per season QB1 on the roster....not even if the cap goes to 250M. It's just far too much money dedicated to a position with a team that'll need 2-3 years to become relevant.

When a team has entered their rebuild phase......a groomable rookie QB1 or an inexpensive veteran QB1 should be at the helm.

 

[welsh texan]

Correct. No team can enter an official rebuild with a 40M dollar per season QB1 on the roster....not even if the cap goes to 250M. It's just far too much money dedicated to a position with a team that'll need 2-3 years to become relevant.

When a team has entered their rebuild phase......a groomable rookie QB1 or an inexpensive veteran QB1 should be at the helm.

If we put aside the lawsuit uncertainty next season the cap looks to grow by $70 million, the Texans can shed some really bad contracts to save a further ~$50 million, plus they have a load of 1 year deals expiring allowing them further flexibility.

Watson’s cap hit rises by ~$20 million, So they have a further ~$100 million available to them in FA and a slate of draft picks.

Why would it be impossible to build a roster around his contract?

 

[OptimisticTexan]

If we put aside the lawsuit uncertainty next season the cap looks to grow by $70 million, the Texans can shed some really bad contracts to save a further ~$50 million, plus they have a load of 1 year deals expiring allowing them further flexibility.

Watson’s cap hit rises by ~$20 million, So they have a further ~$100 million available to them in FA and a slate of draft picks.

Why would it be impossible to build a roster around his contract?

Like the QB1.....all other top positions (LT, WR, DE, CB, OLB, EDGE) will dramatically rise as well. Salaries will rise to the available pool of money. NFL teams are like the Jones'....they just never seem to catch up.

 

[Norg]

if i was a gm i would never pay a qb i would just keep drafting 1st round QBS and rotate them out for new ones in year 5

 

[Speedy]

if i was a gm i would never pay a qb i would just keep drafting 1st round QBS and rotate them out for new ones in year 5

You probably wouldn’t be a GM very long.

 

[FireBOB]

if i was a gm i would never pay a qb i would just keep drafting 1st round QBS and rotate them out for new ones in year 5

I'd draft a QB with my first round pick very frequently too, but that's because I'm absolutely terrible at evaluating talent. I literally have no clue as to which college QBs will become NFL stars.

I do find it a little odd that someone would deliberately use that strategy though.

 

[Norg]

well yeah on the AFC side the QBs who usually win sb are older vet qbs on there 2nd deals

Brady
manning
ben
Dilfer
Flacco
elway
plunkett

so i guess its do time

cam newton
david carr

and FItz to win a sb already LOL