Useless task here but I'm enjoying reading the discussion.
2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)
Where would you put this year's crop among these guys (as they were rated as prospects, not based on what they've become)? Because these are the only QBs drafted in the first round in the last five drafts.
The best QB in this class still would've only been the third best last year. Third best the year before. Probably second the year before that. Third best in 2012. The only class that stands out is 2013. This class has two guys probably rated higher than Manuel.
Overall, I don't see more than one guy in this class that would rank high at all on that list. So where are all the first round picks going to come from?
And I'm high on the potential in this class. But that's where the strength of the class lies. In potential. I see only two guys in this class that could be expected to step on a field this season. That's a low number. And one of those guys appears to be way under the radar (though not on this board) and has not been discussed as a first rounder anywhere.
I think the most likely number in this draft is two. I think there is no question that Watson will go in the first. You can debate whether he should, but I think he's a lock. I think he goes top 12. After that, you have a group of guys with potential but at least one significant question. I think someone makes a move for Trubisky in the 20s. I could very easily see that being the end of it, although a third guy like Kizer or Mahomes could go in the last few picks of the round so a team can get them on a contract with the fifth year option. I just see that as less likely, and I don't see more than three going.