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Quarterbacks only. What team do they go in the draft?

F

Flyingfish

Waterboy
These are the QB's I hear the most about. Lots of speculation here about who goes where. Who will the Texans chose? Listed are 12 QB's and 6 teams. Make a realistic choice for the Texans and then tell us where you think the others go, either as a draft pick or a free agent.
Beathard
Dobbs
Evans
Kayaa
Kelly/Texans
Kizer/Jets
Knight
Mahomes/Bills
Peterman/Miami
Trubisky/Browns
Watson/49'ers
Webb
 
Kelly to the Texans is comical .... Not with his baggage.



Watson to San Fran #2.

Trubisky goes to Chicago #3.

Kizer goes to NYJ #6.

Mahomes to Buffalo #10

Peterman to Cleveland #33. The Texans are sh!t outa luck again with the top 4 quarterbacks all long gone before they pick.

Texans end up with Davis Webb at #169.
 
Corrosion said:
Kelly to the Texans is comical .... Not with his baggage.



Watson to San Fran #2.

Trubisky goes to Chicago #3.

Kizer goes to NYJ #6.

Mahomes to Buffalo #10

Peterman to Cleveland #33. The Texans are sh!t outa luck again with the top 4 quarterbacks all long gone before they pick.

Texans end up with Davis Webb at #169.
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Four QBs in the top ten?
 
bah007 said:
Four QBs in the top ten?
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Which one of those teams is not hemorrhaging for a quality QB ?? It's entirely plausible ....


Then again , I could see Kizer and Mahomes fall out of the first round .... with Watson still going #2 to SF and Trubisky to any one of those other QB needy teams 3.6.10.12.


Its just such a QB driven league that if you don't have a good one , you go get one and if he doesn't work out , you go get another one until you get it right.
 
Corrosion said:
Kelly to the Texans is comical .... Not with his baggage.



Watson to San Fran #2.

Trubisky goes to Chicago #3.

Kizer goes to NYJ #6.

Mahomes to Buffalo #10

Peterman to Cleveland #33. The Texans are sh!t outa luck again with the top 4 quarterbacks all long gone before they pick.

Texans end up with Davis Webb at #169.
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Trubisky and Kizer both slip down the board.
Kizer is likely there for Texans.
 
It was not my concept to attach a round to the QB, just the team, either by draft choice or undrafted free agent. I was thinking that considering Oz's contract, Savage's time in the system, etc., they would look to fill out their non-QB needs in the draft first, and either be happy with what they have or addressing QB next year - not my plan, but it has appeared to be the Texan plan for the past several years.

I had the Texans filling OL, LB, CB, Safety, RB and first, then considering the BQBA or UDFA QB's still available. That is how I paired Kelly with the Texans - not who I would pick with an early draft choice (I would like Mahomes), but Kelly is the BQBA that I think will still be around when the Texans look late for talent at the QB position.
 
Flyingfish said:
It was not my concept to attach a round to the QB, just the team, either by draft choice or undrafted free agent. I was thinking that considering Oz's contract, Savage's time in the system, etc., they would look to fill out their non-QB needs in the draft first, and either be happy with what they have or addressing QB next year - not my plan, but it has appeared to be the Texan plan for the past several years.

I had the Texans filling OL, LB, CB, Safety, RB and first, then considering the BQBA or UDFA QB's still available. That is how I paired Kelly with the Texans - not who I would pick with an early draft choice (I would like Mahomes), but Kelly is the BQBA that I think will still be around when the Texans look late for talent at the QB position.
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see I have a huge issue with this line of thinking as its pretty much has been the texans line of thinking for a majority of their existence. why keep pushing the obvious back? we need a qb, he'll outside of a few good Schuab years we have always needed a qb, but outside of Carr we have never tried really to draft one early on. instead we fill this hole or that one and wind up with the left overs. I'm drafting a qb this year by the 3rd round at the latest. I'm going into the season with Savage starting(we've all seen what Brock brings) unless the rookie really proves he's better then everyone else, like Wilson and Derek Carr. Best thing about this is nothing stops me from trying to get a qb next year to.
 
Dobbs - Pats - 4th
Evans - Chargers - 5th
Kayaa - Texans - 2nd
Kelly - Steelers - 6th
Kizer - Bears - 1st (trade back in to get in front of Texans)
Knight - Seahawks - UDFA
Mahomes - Jets - 1st
Peterman - Chiefs - 3rd
Trubisky - Niners - 1st
Watson - Bills - 1st
Webb - Cards - 2nd

I'll concur with steelbtexan on the Browns trading for Garoppolo.
 
If I were Miami, I'd definitely get in on the QB picking.

Maybe even trade up to get one of the top 2 guys.
 
Lucky said:
Dobbs - Pats - 4th
Evans - Chargers - 5th
Kayaa - Texans - 2nd
Kelly - Steelers - 6th
Kizer - Bears - 1st (trade back in to get in front of Texans)
Knight - Seahawks - UDFA
Mahomes - Jets - 1st
Peterman - Chiefs - 3rd
Trubisky - Niners - 1st
Watson - Bills - 1st
Webb - Cards - 2nd

I'll concur with steelbtexan on the Browns trading for Garoppolo.
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Not really a Peterman fan, but if we take Kaaya over him I would be highly disappointed
 
I'd never heard of Brad Kayaa that I recall until last week when I was looking at somebodys mock Draft where I noticed him being taken by us in the 4th round.
So anyway I'm watching the QB workouts in the combine over the weekend and Kayaa takes his turn and is really impressive as he hits practically every pass. Ok I know they are in shorts and T-shirts and nobody is rushing them, but he's an impressive looking kid and has a nice easy motion throwing the ball. Who knows ?
 
IDEXAN said:
I'd never heard of Brad Kayaa that I recall until last week when I was looking at somebodys mock Draft where I noticed him being taken by us in the 4th round.
So anyway I'm watching the QB workouts in the combine over the weekend and Kayaa takes his turn and is really impressive as he hits practically every pass. Ok I know they are in shorts and T-shirts and nobody is rushing them, but he's an impressive looking kid and has a nice easy motion throwing the ball. Who knows ?
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Kaaya looks phenomenal in workouts. His problem is he suffers from severe Blaine Gabbert Syndrome (i.e. once you put pass rushers in his face he freaks out and starts air mailing his passes).
 
Some rumors and news that may affect where QBs go in the draft:

Niners - May try to trade for Cousins or wait until 2018 when he hits free agency
Bears - Not taking a QB high with the signing of Glennon
Bills - May have cooled off on taking a QB high after retaining Taylor

This may enhance the Texans chances of taking one of the top QBs at 25. Maybe.
 
Jets - Watson - 1st
Browns - Garappolo - trade 1st
Cardinals - Trubisky - 1st
Texans - Kizer - 1st
Jaguars - Mahomes - 1st (Saints)
49ers - Cousins - trade 2nd
Redskins - Peterman - 2nd (49ers)
Cowboys - Kaaya - 4th
Chargers - Webb - 5th
Bills - Dobbs - 5th
Ravens - Kelly - 5th
Patriots - Torgerson - 6th
Seahawks - Liufau - 6th
Saints - Terrel - 7th
 
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infantrycak said:
Once again, 2.5 QBs is average. This is a below average QB class. But y'all keep on predicting a massive QB run.
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I agree with all of this but unfortunately think emotion will get in the way of logic come draft day. If Trubisky and Watson are the only QBs off the board when the Texans pick at 25, do you think they will pass on Kizer and Mahomes? I hope they do, but don't think they will. 2011 was a very talented draft with a weak QB class and look how many went way earlier than they should have. If the Texans can wait till the 3rd or 4th round for Kizer or Mahomes, which would match there value versus the other talent in the draft, I would be very pleased.
 
infantrycak said:
Once again, 2.5 QBs is average. This is a below average QB class. But y'all keep on predicting a massive QB run.
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Mollywhopper said:
Since 1970 the average is actually less than 2.1. 98 QBs taken in the first in those 47 drafts.

Just sayin' to further the point..
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2.7 QBs have been taken in the first round since 2010, the last seven years.

3 or more QBs have been drafted in the first round four times in the last seven years.

Times are a changing.
 
Useless task here but I'm enjoying reading the discussion.

2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)

Where would you put this year's crop among these guys (as they were rated as prospects, not based on what they've become)? Because these are the only QBs drafted in the first round in the last five drafts.

The best QB in this class still would've only been the third best last year. Third best the year before. Probably second the year before that. Third best in 2012. The only class that stands out is 2013. This class has two guys probably rated higher than Manuel.

Overall, I don't see more than one guy in this class that would rank high at all on that list. So where are all the first round picks going to come from?

And I'm high on the potential in this class. But that's where the strength of the class lies. In potential. I see only two guys in this class that could be expected to step on a field this season. That's a low number. And one of those guys appears to be way under the radar (though not on this board) and has not been discussed as a first rounder anywhere.

I think the most likely number in this draft is two. I think there is no question that Watson will go in the first. You can debate whether he should, but I think he's a lock. I think he goes top 12. After that, you have a group of guys with potential but at least one significant question. I think someone makes a move for Trubisky in the 20s. I could very easily see that being the end of it, although a third guy like Kizer or Mahomes could go in the last few picks of the round so a team can get them on a contract with the fifth year option. I just see that as less likely, and I don't see more than three going.
 
infantrycak said:
Once again, 2.5 QBs is average. This is a below average QB class. But y'all keep on predicting a massive QB run.
Click to expand...

Happens every year without fail.

In 2014, there was a time where people were predicting 6 QBs in the first round. The third ended up going on the very last pick.

In 2013, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib had serious first round heat from the pundits. Remember how Nassib to the Bills in the first was a lock because his college coach was there? That draft only had three go in the first three rounds.
 
bah007 said:
Useless task here but I'm enjoying reading the discussion.

2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)
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I like Trubisky more than I liked Lynch, Mariota, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Griffin, Tannehill, and Weeden.

Like Mahomes more than all of them except Mariota, and that's about on par.

Peterman more than all of them except Mariota, Bridgewater, and Griffin.
 
I'm in the same boat as bah007 -- just an interesting conversation and there isn't much else to talk about.

thunderkyss said:
2.7 QBs have been taken in the first round since 2010, the last seven years.

3 or more QBs have been drafted in the first round four times in the last seven years.

Times are a changing.
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2003 - 2012 averaged 3.1 qb's in the 1st. 3 or more, 7 out of 10 years and 4 or more, 4 out of 10 years.

bah007 said:
Useless task here but I'm enjoying reading the discussion.

2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)

Where would you put this year's crop among these guys (as they were rated as prospects, not based on what they've become)? Because these are the only QBs drafted in the first round in the last five drafts.

The best QB in this class still would've only been the third best last year. Third best the year before. Probably second the year before that. Third best in 2012. The only class that stands out is 2013. This class has two guys probably rated higher than Manuel.

Overall, I don't see more than one guy in this class that would rank high at all on that list. So where are all the first round picks going to come from?

And I'm high on the potential in this class. But that's where the strength of the class lies. In potential. I see only two guys in this class that could be expected to step on a field this season. That's a low number. And one of those guys appears to be way under the radar (though not on this board) and has not been discussed as a first rounder anywhere.

I think the most likely number in this draft is two. I think there is no question that Watson will go in the first. You can debate whether he should, but I think he's a lock. I think he goes top 12. After that, you have a group of guys with potential but at least one significant question. I think someone makes a move for Trubisky in the 20s. I could very easily see that being the end of it, although a third guy like Kizer or Mahomes could go in the last few picks of the round so a team can get them on a contract with the fifth year option. I just see that as less likely, and I don't see more than three going.
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Looking at historical 1st round qb picks -- the way you've positioned it seems to be the best way to look at it. There isn't a real historical pattern -- it seems to depend on the talent in the given year more than the emphasis on the position. It doesn't feel to me like this year is stacking up as a particularly strong class -- we may only see 1 or 2 qb's in the 1st.
 
bah007 said:
Useless task here but I'm enjoying reading the discussion.

2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)

Where would you put this year's crop among these guys (as they were rated as prospects, not based on what they've become)? Because these are the only QBs drafted in the first round in the last five drafts.

The best QB in this class still would've only been the third best last year. Third best the year before. Probably second the year before that. Third best in 2012. The only class that stands out is 2013. This class has two guys probably rated higher than Manuel.

Overall, I don't see more than one guy in this class that would rank high at all on that list. So where are all the first round picks going to come from?

And I'm high on the potential in this class. But that's where the strength of the class lies. In potential. I see only two guys in this class that could be expected to step on a field this season. That's a low number. And one of those guys appears to be way under the radar (though not on this board) and has not been discussed as a first rounder anywhere.

I think the most likely number in this draft is two. I think there is no question that Watson will go in the first. You can debate whether he should, but I think he's a lock. I think he goes top 12. After that, you have a group of guys with potential but at least one significant question. I think someone makes a move for Trubisky in the 20s. I could very easily see that being the end of it, although a third guy like Kizer or Mahomes could go in the last few picks of the round so a team can get them on a contract with the fifth year option. I just see that as less likely, and I don't see more than three going.
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This is exactly how I see it, Watson is likely a Jet, Trubisky lands with the Cardinals. I think the Jags trade up to 32 to get the 5th year on their QB. Question is will Texans take a QB at 25? That is what will determine if it is 3 or 4, I hope they dont but think they will.
 
bah007 said:
So where are all the first round picks going to come from?
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Before I answer this question, let me ask another. If these QBs don't go in the 1st round, what round do they go in? The 2nd round? The maximum number of QBs selected in the 2nd round since the merger is 3. It has happened 3 times, the last in 2007. In the time frame you mentioned (2012-2016), there were only 5 QBs taken in the 2nd, versus 13 taken in the 1st. The 1st round QBs are coming from teams that don't think they can get one in the 2nd round.

Teams that need a QB now? The Browns, Niners, Jets, and Texans. Teams that may need a QB in the near future? The Chargers, Bills, Saints, Cards, Chiefs, and maybe even the Steelers. Maybe there will be trades and acquisitions over the next 30 days that change this list. But, the demand is clearly there for QBs. There aren't QBs in this draft that compare to Luck, Winston, or Mariota coming out. But, there are QBs that compare with Lynch, Bridgewater, and Tannehill.

Lastly, take a look at the skyrocketing prices of QBs. We all know what the Texans paid for a lightly tested young QB. The Bears just made a big investment in a similarly experienced Gleenon. The price for Garoppolo will be excessive in both picks and contract. Kirk Cousins is a solid, not great QB. He's getting $24 million in 2017. And there are teams that would give him more. A first round QB is a big investment. Not as big as what it takes to get one on the secondary market.
 
bah007 said:
Happens every year without fail.

In 2014, there was a time where people were predicting 6 QBs in the first round. The third ended up going on the very last pick.

In 2013, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib had serious first round heat from the pundits. Remember how Nassib to the Bills in the first was a lock because his college coach was there? That draft only had three go in the first three rounds.
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There were 2 QBs in the 2014 draft that should have been taken in the 1st round and weren't (Carr and Garoppolo). And the entire 2013 draft was such a bust that Smith, Barkley, and Nassib going in the 1st wouldn't have been a big deal.
 
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bah007 said:
2016: 3 (Goff, Wentz, Lynch)
2015: 2 (Winston, Mariota)
2014: 3 (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater)
2013: 1 (Manuel)
2012: 4 (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden)

Where would you put this year's crop among these guys...
.
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That's a good question. I really don't know. I haven't looked at the guys everyone is talking about. I'm pretty sure we're not taking a QB in the first. Maybe not even in the 2nd. We're going to get someone none of us will understand.


The rest of your post was pretty good too.
 
Mollywhopper said:
I like Trubisky more than I liked Lynch, Mariota, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Manuel, Griffin, Tannehill, and Weeden.

Like Mahomes more than all of them except Mariota, and that's about on par.

Peterman more than all of them except Mariota, Bridgewater, and Griffin.
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You don't think much of Winston?

He's every bit as good a prospect that Mariota was, imo.
 
thunderkyss said:
You don't think much of Winston?

He's every bit as good a prospect that Mariota was, imo.
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When I said 'more than all of them except Mariota ...' , I meant 'all of them' as the guys I'd listed in reference to Trubisky.

So Luck, Winston, Wentz, and Goff I'd have had on top of Trubisky, Mahomes, Mariota, etc.
 
Lucky said:
There were 2 QBs in the 2014 draft that should have been taken in the 1st round and weren't (Carr and Garoppolo). And the entire 2013 draft was such a bust that Smith, Barkley, and Nassib going in the 1st wouldn't have been a big deal.
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Carr, maybe.

Garoppolo? Of the 2-9 Eastern Illinois Panthers? Preposterous. He should have been a late 4th round project. Talented, maybe. But small school, small conference, & not exactly a winning tradition. He was among the hardest to grade because there was no spot light, the competition was weak, the offense was simple, & the team didn't do particularly well against anybody.
 
Mollywhopper said:
When I said 'more than all of them except Mariota ...' , I meant 'all of them' as the guys I'd listed in reference to Trubisky.

So Luck, Winston, Wentz, and Goff I'd have had on top of Trubisky, Mahomes, Mariota, etc.
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Wentz is the one I still don't know about. He's pretty good at adlibbing, which may mask whatever progress he may be making in a particular offense. He's had about as many starts as Savage at the collegiate level. I'm still surprised he went #2 overall.
 
Before the rookie cap, a bust at qb would set your franchise back 5 yrs. Actually a bust in the top ten would because of the money associated with those top picks. 2011 and after ,it doesn't effect the team as much. Tannehill hasn't been great, but he's not a bust either as an example.
 
OK, with Romo out of the picture, Cutler and Kaepernick still out there in FA limbo, Taylor resigning with Buffalo, Glennon signing with Chicago, Hoyer with SF, and McCown with the Jets, how does this affect what QB goes where in the Draft? Most of the teams that looked like they would draft a QB in the 1st have found "stop-gaps" that may allow them to take a QB later in the draft or maybe even wait until next year. I think most of these teams will go BPA in the 1st rd but could jump back into the late 1st to take a QB they like. Teams like the Cardinals, Chargers, Saints, and maybe Steelers who have aging QB's and may want to get someone to groom I don't think most of them will take a QB (especially from this class) in the 1st rd. There's just too much good defensive talent, as well as WR's, TE's, and RB's to pass up in the 1st unless you are desperate for a QB. The wildcards in all of this are the Browns and Cardinals. What will the Browns do with pick #12? Will they trade for Garoppolo? Will they take the 1st QB off the board? As for the Cardinals, my thinking, at this point in time, is that they go BPA in the 1st. But, how desperate are they for a replacement for Palmer? That could be what drives them to take a QB in the 1st.

With all that said I'm not convinced there will be a big run on QB's in the 1st rd and the Texans could have their pick of QB's if they want. I think if Trubisky or Mahomes are there at #25 the Texans will probably take one of them. Not sure how they feel about Watson or Kizer. Anyway, this is how I could see the top 4 QB's going in the Draft if things stay as they are now.

Beathard
Dobbs
Evans
Kayaa
Kelly
Kizer - 49ers at #34 (2nd rd)
Knight
Mahomes - Texans at #25
Peterman
Trubisky - Cleveland at #12
Watson - Saints at #32
Webb
 
I think Landry Jones has been doing a nice job with the Steelers. He's not a replacement... yet, but I think he's a solid backup & would make a nice "bridge" QB if something were to happen to Ben, or he retires & they draft & sit a 1st rounder.

IMO, the Steelers would be more interested in winning now than forcing a Roethlisberger replacement they may not need for some time.
 
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