Breaking down the Odds going into Week 13
We will look at the top 8 teams (or more if 8th, 9th, etc. are tied) in each conference, breaking down the three most important games of next week and their implications on the playoff picture. A "near certainty" means the odds of this happening are 99% or greater.
AFC Playoff Picture:
Patriots (10-1) - HFA 65%, 1st-round bye 94%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: vs PHI
- Best case scenario: Pats win, Bengals and Broncos lose. HFA would increase to 87% and the first round bye odds up to 98%.
- Worst case scenario: Pats lose, Bengals and Broncos win. Control of the #1 seed would be lost, with HFA dropping to 29% and the first-round bye down to 79%.
- Overall: 11-5 is a near certainty for a playoff berth, with 12-4 clinching the division. Losing only one more game (14-2) would give New England control of the #2 seed, with a 50-50 shot at winning #1.
Broncos (9-2)- HFA 20%, 1st-round bye 59%, Division 97%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at SD
- Best case scenario: Broncos win, Pats and Bengals lose. Denver would gain control of the #1 seed with 53% odds. First round bye odds jump to 78%, and winning the division becomes a near certainty.
- Worst case scenario: Broncos lose, Pats and Bengals win. Denver still controls the #2 seed, but odds drop to 49%, with #1 seed odds down to 8%.
- Overall: Winning out (14-2) gives Denver a 63% shot at earning the #1 seed, with a guaranteed #2. Losing one more (13-3) drops the #1 odds to 20%, and first-round bye to 88%. 12-4 clinches the division. 11-5 is a near certain playoff berth, but with only a 75% chance at winning the division.
Bengals (9-2)- HFA 15%, 1st-round bye 48%, Division 99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at CLE
- Best case scenario: Bengals win, Pats and Broncos lose. Control of the #1 seed cannot be gained, but this scenario bumps the odds up to 23%, and the first-round bye up to 58%.
- Worse case scenario: Bengals lose, Pats and Broncos win. Control of the #2 seed cannot be lost, but first-round bye odds drop to 30%.
- Overall: Winning out (14-2) gives the Bengals a 60% chance at the #1 seed, with a guaranteed #2. Losing one more (13-3) drops the #1 down to 18%, and first-round bye to 86%. 12-4 clinches the division. 11-5 clinches a playoff berth. 10-6 is a near certain playoff berth, with an 80% chance at a division title.
Chiefs (6-5)- Division 3%, Playoffs 83%. Next week: at OAK
- Best case scenario: Chiefs win, Jets and Broncos lose. Playoff odds jump to 96%, and a division win up to 10%.
- Worst case scenario: Chiefs lose, Jets and Broncos win. Playoff odds drop to 70%, and a near certain elimination from the division race.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) will clinch a playoff berth, but with only an 8% chance of winning the division. 10-6 is a nearly certain wild card berth. At 9-7 the odds drop to 89%, and at 8-8 to 29%.
Colts (6-5)- Division 63%, Playoffs 68%. Next week: at PIT
- Best case scenario: Colts win, Texans lose. The Colts would bump their division odds to 74%, and playoffs to 79%. Even with a win, the odds are low (6%) at getting the #3 seed or better.
- Worst case scenario: Colts lose, Texans win. The divisonal odds drop to 53%, and playoffs to 55%.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) will clinch the division, but with a near certainty of a #3 or #4 seed. 10-6 is a near certainty for a playoff berth, with a 92% chance of the division. 9-7 is their last good chance at getting into the playoffs (77%), with most of that (67%) being a division title.
Texans (6-5)- Division 35%, Playoffs 48%. Next week: at BUF
- Best case scenario: Texans win, Jets lose. Interestingly enough, because of who Indianapolis is playing, that game isn't a huge factor either way. A win itself bumps the divisional odds to 42%, and together with the Jets loss, the playoff odds jump to 70%.
- Worst case scenario: Texans lose, Jets win. Divisional odds drop to 28%, playoffs to 32%.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) clinches the division, but with a near certainty for the #3 or #4 seed. Losing one (10-6) is a near certain playoff berth, with an 82% chance of winning the division. A 9-7 finish gives a 72% chance of a playoff berth.
Jets (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 32%. Next week: at NYG
- Best case scenario: Jets win, Chiefs and Steelers lose. Bumps playoff odds up to 47%. Would also gain control of their own playoff destiny.
- Worst case scenario: Jets lose, Chiefs and Steelers win. Drops playoff odds to 23%.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives a near certain playoff berth as a wild card. Losing one (10-6) drops the number to 88%. 9-7 is almost a coin flip (45%).
Steelers (6-5)- Division 1%, Playoffs 29%. Next week: vs IND
- Best case scenario: Steelers win, Bengals and Chiefs lose. Would gain control of their playoff destiny with a 40% chance of making it. Keeps them alive in the division race (4%).
- Worst case scenario: Steelers lose, Bengals and Chiefs win. Playoff odds drop to 9% and a near certain elimination from the division race.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives a near certain playoff berth, plus a 19% chance at the division title. Losing one (10-6) will still give a good chance (91%) of making the playoffs as a wild-card. 9-7 is all but required to hope to make the playoffs (31%).
NFC Playoff Picture:
Panthers (11-0) - HFA 94%, 1st-round bye >99%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at NO
- Best case scenario: Panthers win, Cardinals lose. Would clinch the #3 seed, and a nearly certain #1 seed.
- Worst case scenario: Panthers lose, Cardinals win. #1 seed odds drop to 82%, but still a nearly certain #2 seed minimum.
- Overall: Losing one (15-1) will still clinch the #1 seed. 14-2 gives Carolina an 80% chance at the #1, and guaranteed #2. 13-3 drops the #1 odds to 39%.
Cardinals (9-2)- HFA 5%, 1st-round bye 66%, Division 96%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at STL
- Best case scenario: Cardinals win, Packers and Vikings lose. Wanting the rival Seahawks to win sounds strange, but with a win by Arizona it will actually help their odds of earning a first-round bye (up to 84%).
- Worst case scenario: Cardinals lose, Packers and Vikings win. They will still retain control of the #2 seed, but odds will drop to 53%, and will also nearly certainly take them out of the hunt for the #1 seed.
- Overall: Winning out (14-2) clinches the #2 seed, with a 19% chance at #1. Losing one (13-3) gives a 96% chance of getting at worst the #2 seed. 12-4 will clinch the division, but nearly certainly will not earn the #1 seed. 10-6 gives a nearly certain playoff berth, but only 67% chance at winning the division.
Vikings (8-3)- HFA 1%, 1st-round bye 24%, Division 64%, Playoffs 95%. Next week: vs SEA
- Best case scenario: Vikings win, Packers and Cardinals lose. Will bump first round bye odds up to 37%, a division title to 91%, and give a nearly certain playoff berth.
- Worst case scenario: Vikings lose, Packers and Cardinals win. Drops first round bye odds to 10% (along with losing control over the position), a division title to 48%, and playoff odds to 89%.
- Overall: Winning out (13-3) will clinch the #2 seed, with a 4% chance at #1. Losing one (12-4) gives a 97% chance of a division title. 11-5 clinches the playoffs, but with an 82% chance at the division. 10-6 nearly certainly clinches the playoffs, but the division drops all the way to 46% chance.
Packers (7-4)- 1st-round bye 10%, Division 36%, Playoffs 85%. Next week: at DET
- Best case scenario: Packers win, Vikings and Cardinals lose. Would gain control of the #2 seed with 20% odds, and jump to a 54% chance at a division title. Playoff odds rise to 93%.
- Worst case scenario: Packers lose, Vikings and Cardinals win. Along with losing control, their division odds would drop to 18%. They would retain wild card control at 77%.
- Overall: Winning out (12-4) clinches the #3 seed (with a 72% chance at the #2 seed). Losing one (11-5) gives a 68% chance at the division title. 10-6 is a nearly certain playoff berth with, but with only 28% chance at winning the division. 9-7 gives an 86% chance at the playoffs.
Redskins (5-6)- Division 64%, Playoffs 66%. Next week: vs DAL
- Best case scenario: Redskins win, Giants and Eagles lose. Divisional odds (and playoff odds) jump to 82%.
- Worst case scenario: Redskins lose, Giants and Eagles win. Redskins lose all playoff control, dropping their odds to 35%.
- Overall: Winning out (10-6) clinches the division, with a 23% chance of climbing to the #3 seed. Losing one (9-7) is a nearly certain playoff berth, and a 98% chance at the division title. At 8-8, those odds drop to 82% and 85% respectively.
Seahawks (6-5)- 1st-round bye 1%, Division 4%, Playoffs 51%. Next week: at MIN
- Best case scenario: Seahawks win, Packers and Cardinals lose. Division odds would rise to 12% (and top-2 seed to 6%), control of the playoffs would be gained, with a 76% chance of making it.
- Worst case scenario: Seahawks lose, Packers and Cardinals win. Seattle would be nearly certainly eliminated from the division race. Playoff odds drop to 38%.
- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives Seattle a 31% chance at winning the division. Losing one (10-6) will still allow a nearly certain playoff berth, but divisional odds drop to 9%. 9-7 would take Seattle's chances of making it down to 74%.
Giants (5-6)- Division 22%, Playoffs 24%. Next week: vs NYJ
- Best case scenario: Giants win, Redskins lose. Raises divisional odds to 44%, and playoff odds to 45%. Gains control of division.
- Worst case scenario: Giants lose, Redskins win. Divisional odds drop to 9%, and playoffs to 10%.
- Overall: Winning out (10-6) earns a nearly certain playoff berth, with a 92% chance at winning the division. Losing one (9-7) drops the division odds to 70%, and the playoff odds to 88%. An 8-8 record keeps them alive in the division (40%), and even 7-9 has an outside chance (11%).
Falcons (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%. Next week: at TB
- Best case scenario: Falcons win, Seahawks and Bears lose. Bumps their playoff odds up to 34%, and would gain control of the wild card.
- Worst case scenario: Falcons lose, Seahawks and Bears win. Drops their playoff odds down to 4%.
- Overall: Any Panthers win or Falcons loss will knock Atlanta out of the division, but winning out (11-5) will still nearly guarantee Atlanta a playoff spot. Losing one (10-6) drops those odds slightly to 91%. 9-7 is almost a coin flip (46%).
Bears (5-6)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%. Next week: vs SF
- Best case scenario: Bears win. Simple as that. Bumps their playoff odds up to 21%.
- Worst case scenario: Bears lose. Knocks them down to 6%.
- Overall: Winning out (10-6) gives Chicago a 92% chance at the playoffs, with a 6% chance at a division title. Losing one (9-7) is a 50-50 coin flip to earn a wild card spot.
Bucs (5-6)- Playoffs 17%. Next week: vs ATL
- Best case scenario: Bucs win, Seahawks and Bears lose. Bumps playoff odds up to 28%.
- Worst case scenario: Bucs lose, Seahawks and Bears win. Drops odds down to 4%.
- Overall: Winning out (10-6) gives a nearly certain playoff berth. Losing one (9-7) drops the odds to 79%. An 8-8 record causes that number to plummet to 17%.
