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Playoff Odds: Week 12

brakos82

Yaters Gonna Yate.
Teams are sorted by the current odds of them making the playoffs, not by the typical "If the season ended today" mode. These ratings are determined by current record, all applicable tie-breakers, and strength of remaining schedule. Playoff clinching/elimination scenarios where a tie is required are not included.

If a HFA/1st round category is not listed for a team, it has a less than 1% chance of happening. If a division category is not listed, that team has been eliminated from the division title race.

Teams in Green control their destiny for the #1 seed (Home Field Advantage)
Teams in Blue control their destiny for the division title.
Teams in Black control their playoff destiny.
Unbolded teams need some help to make the playoffs.

AFC Playoff Picture:

Patriots (10-1) - HFA 65%, 1st-round bye 94%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and NYJ loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with win and KC or PIT loss.
Broncos (9-2)- HFA 20%, 1st-round bye 59%, Division 97%, Playoffs >99%
Bengals (9-2)- HFA 15%, 1st-round bye 48%, Division 99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch playoff berth with: win and IND loss and HOU loss and either: NYJ loss, or KC and SD losses.
Chiefs (6-5)- Division 3%, Playoffs 83%
Colts (6-5)- Division 63%, Playoffs 68%
Texans (6-5)- Division 35%, Playoffs 48%
Jets (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 32%
Steelers (6-5)- Division 1%, Playoffs 29%
Bills (5-6)- Playoffs 25%
Raiders (5-6)- Division <1%, Playoffs 12%
Jaguars (4-7)- Division 2%, Playoffs 3%
All other teams with 1% or less playoff chance.

Browns can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to CIN.

Titans can be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to JAX.

NFC Playoff Picture:

Panthers (11-0) - HFA 94%, 1st-round bye >99%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division title (and minimum #3 seed) with win or ATL loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with SEA loss, or ARZ and GB loss.
Cardinals (9-2)- HFA 5%, 1st-round bye 66%, Division 96%, Playoffs >99%
Vikings (8-3)- HFA 1%, 1st-round bye 24%, Division 64%, Playoffs 95%
Packers (7-4)- 1st-round bye 10%, Division 36%, Playoffs 85%
Redskins (5-6)- Division 64%, Playoffs 66%
Seahawks (6-5)- 1st-round bye 1%, Division 4%, Playoffs 51%
Giants (5-6)- Division 22%, Playoffs 24%
Falcons (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%
Bears (5-6)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%
Bucs (5-6)- Playoffs 17%
Eagles (4-7)- Division 10%, Playoffs 11%
Lions (4-7)- Division <1%, Playoffs 6%
Rams (4-7)- Division <1%, Playoffs 4%
Cowboys (3-8)- Division 3%, Playoffs 3%
Saints (4-7)- Playoffs 3%
All other teams (a.k.a. just the 49ers) with 1% or less playoff chance.

49ers can be eliminated from the playoffs with loss and SEA win and GB win.
 
Last edited:

paycheck71

Hall of Fame
Do the odds for the outcome of any given game take into account team records and some sort of probability of a team winning the game, or is each team given a 50/50 shot at every remaining game when calculating the overall playoff odds?
 

brakos82

Yaters Gonna Yate.
Do the odds for the outcome of any given game take into account team records and some sort of probability of a team winning the game, or is each team given a 50/50 shot at every remaining game when calculating the overall playoff odds?
It does take into account overall remaining strength of schedule, which is why KC is so far ahead of PIT, and we're in the middle of the huge 6-5 pack. I've never seen a full game-by-game odds analysis so I'm not sure what the formula is exactly.
 

brakos82

Yaters Gonna Yate.
Breaking down the Odds going into Week 13

We will look at the top 8 teams (or more if 8th, 9th, etc. are tied) in each conference, breaking down the three most important games of next week and their implications on the playoff picture. A "near certainty" means the odds of this happening are 99% or greater.

AFC Playoff Picture:

Patriots (10-1) - HFA 65%, 1st-round bye 94%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: vs PHI

- Best case scenario: Pats win, Bengals and Broncos lose. HFA would increase to 87% and the first round bye odds up to 98%.

- Worst case scenario: Pats lose, Bengals and Broncos win. Control of the #1 seed would be lost, with HFA dropping to 29% and the first-round bye down to 79%.

- Overall: 11-5 is a near certainty for a playoff berth, with 12-4 clinching the division. Losing only one more game (14-2) would give New England control of the #2 seed, with a 50-50 shot at winning #1.

Broncos (9-2)- HFA 20%, 1st-round bye 59%, Division 97%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at SD

- Best case scenario: Broncos win, Pats and Bengals lose. Denver would gain control of the #1 seed with 53% odds. First round bye odds jump to 78%, and winning the division becomes a near certainty.

- Worst case scenario: Broncos lose, Pats and Bengals win. Denver still controls the #2 seed, but odds drop to 49%, with #1 seed odds down to 8%.

- Overall: Winning out (14-2) gives Denver a 63% shot at earning the #1 seed, with a guaranteed #2. Losing one more (13-3) drops the #1 odds to 20%, and first-round bye to 88%. 12-4 clinches the division. 11-5 is a near certain playoff berth, but with only a 75% chance at winning the division.

Bengals (9-2)- HFA 15%, 1st-round bye 48%, Division 99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at CLE

- Best case scenario: Bengals win, Pats and Broncos lose. Control of the #1 seed cannot be gained, but this scenario bumps the odds up to 23%, and the first-round bye up to 58%.

- Worse case scenario: Bengals lose, Pats and Broncos win. Control of the #2 seed cannot be lost, but first-round bye odds drop to 30%.

- Overall: Winning out (14-2) gives the Bengals a 60% chance at the #1 seed, with a guaranteed #2. Losing one more (13-3) drops the #1 down to 18%, and first-round bye to 86%. 12-4 clinches the division. 11-5 clinches a playoff berth. 10-6 is a near certain playoff berth, with an 80% chance at a division title.

Chiefs (6-5)- Division 3%, Playoffs 83%. Next week: at OAK

- Best case scenario: Chiefs win, Jets and Broncos lose. Playoff odds jump to 96%, and a division win up to 10%.

- Worst case scenario: Chiefs lose, Jets and Broncos win. Playoff odds drop to 70%, and a near certain elimination from the division race.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) will clinch a playoff berth, but with only an 8% chance of winning the division. 10-6 is a nearly certain wild card berth. At 9-7 the odds drop to 89%, and at 8-8 to 29%.

Colts (6-5)- Division 63%, Playoffs 68%. Next week: at PIT

- Best case scenario: Colts win, Texans lose. The Colts would bump their division odds to 74%, and playoffs to 79%. Even with a win, the odds are low (6%) at getting the #3 seed or better.

- Worst case scenario: Colts lose, Texans win. The divisonal odds drop to 53%, and playoffs to 55%.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) will clinch the division, but with a near certainty of a #3 or #4 seed. 10-6 is a near certainty for a playoff berth, with a 92% chance of the division. 9-7 is their last good chance at getting into the playoffs (77%), with most of that (67%) being a division title.

Texans (6-5)- Division 35%, Playoffs 48%. Next week: at BUF

- Best case scenario: Texans win, Jets lose. Interestingly enough, because of who Indianapolis is playing, that game isn't a huge factor either way. A win itself bumps the divisional odds to 42%, and together with the Jets loss, the playoff odds jump to 70%.

- Worst case scenario: Texans lose, Jets win. Divisional odds drop to 28%, playoffs to 32%.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) clinches the division, but with a near certainty for the #3 or #4 seed. Losing one (10-6) is a near certain playoff berth, with an 82% chance of winning the division. A 9-7 finish gives a 72% chance of a playoff berth.

Jets (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 32%. Next week: at NYG

- Best case scenario: Jets win, Chiefs and Steelers lose. Bumps playoff odds up to 47%. Would also gain control of their own playoff destiny.

- Worst case scenario: Jets lose, Chiefs and Steelers win. Drops playoff odds to 23%.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives a near certain playoff berth as a wild card. Losing one (10-6) drops the number to 88%. 9-7 is almost a coin flip (45%).

Steelers (6-5)- Division 1%, Playoffs 29%. Next week: vs IND

- Best case scenario: Steelers win, Bengals and Chiefs lose. Would gain control of their playoff destiny with a 40% chance of making it. Keeps them alive in the division race (4%).

- Worst case scenario: Steelers lose, Bengals and Chiefs win. Playoff odds drop to 9% and a near certain elimination from the division race.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives a near certain playoff berth, plus a 19% chance at the division title. Losing one (10-6) will still give a good chance (91%) of making the playoffs as a wild-card. 9-7 is all but required to hope to make the playoffs (31%).

NFC Playoff Picture:

Panthers (11-0) - HFA 94%, 1st-round bye >99%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at NO

- Best case scenario: Panthers win, Cardinals lose. Would clinch the #3 seed, and a nearly certain #1 seed.

- Worst case scenario: Panthers lose, Cardinals win. #1 seed odds drop to 82%, but still a nearly certain #2 seed minimum.

- Overall: Losing one (15-1) will still clinch the #1 seed. 14-2 gives Carolina an 80% chance at the #1, and guaranteed #2. 13-3 drops the #1 odds to 39%.

Cardinals (9-2)- HFA 5%, 1st-round bye 66%, Division 96%, Playoffs >99%. Next week: at STL

- Best case scenario: Cardinals win, Packers and Vikings lose. Wanting the rival Seahawks to win sounds strange, but with a win by Arizona it will actually help their odds of earning a first-round bye (up to 84%).

- Worst case scenario: Cardinals lose, Packers and Vikings win. They will still retain control of the #2 seed, but odds will drop to 53%, and will also nearly certainly take them out of the hunt for the #1 seed.

- Overall: Winning out (14-2) clinches the #2 seed, with a 19% chance at #1. Losing one (13-3) gives a 96% chance of getting at worst the #2 seed. 12-4 will clinch the division, but nearly certainly will not earn the #1 seed. 10-6 gives a nearly certain playoff berth, but only 67% chance at winning the division.

Vikings (8-3)- HFA 1%, 1st-round bye 24%, Division 64%, Playoffs 95%. Next week: vs SEA

- Best case scenario: Vikings win, Packers and Cardinals lose. Will bump first round bye odds up to 37%, a division title to 91%, and give a nearly certain playoff berth.

- Worst case scenario: Vikings lose, Packers and Cardinals win. Drops first round bye odds to 10% (along with losing control over the position), a division title to 48%, and playoff odds to 89%.

- Overall: Winning out (13-3) will clinch the #2 seed, with a 4% chance at #1. Losing one (12-4) gives a 97% chance of a division title. 11-5 clinches the playoffs, but with an 82% chance at the division. 10-6 nearly certainly clinches the playoffs, but the division drops all the way to 46% chance.

Packers (7-4)- 1st-round bye 10%, Division 36%, Playoffs 85%. Next week: at DET

- Best case scenario: Packers win, Vikings and Cardinals lose. Would gain control of the #2 seed with 20% odds, and jump to a 54% chance at a division title. Playoff odds rise to 93%.

- Worst case scenario: Packers lose, Vikings and Cardinals win. Along with losing control, their division odds would drop to 18%. They would retain wild card control at 77%.

- Overall: Winning out (12-4) clinches the #3 seed (with a 72% chance at the #2 seed). Losing one (11-5) gives a 68% chance at the division title. 10-6 is a nearly certain playoff berth with, but with only 28% chance at winning the division. 9-7 gives an 86% chance at the playoffs.

Redskins (5-6)- Division 64%, Playoffs 66%. Next week: vs DAL

- Best case scenario: Redskins win, Giants and Eagles lose. Divisional odds (and playoff odds) jump to 82%.

- Worst case scenario: Redskins lose, Giants and Eagles win. Redskins lose all playoff control, dropping their odds to 35%.

- Overall: Winning out (10-6) clinches the division, with a 23% chance of climbing to the #3 seed. Losing one (9-7) is a nearly certain playoff berth, and a 98% chance at the division title. At 8-8, those odds drop to 82% and 85% respectively.

Seahawks (6-5)- 1st-round bye 1%, Division 4%, Playoffs 51%. Next week: at MIN

- Best case scenario: Seahawks win, Packers and Cardinals lose. Division odds would rise to 12% (and top-2 seed to 6%), control of the playoffs would be gained, with a 76% chance of making it.

- Worst case scenario: Seahawks lose, Packers and Cardinals win. Seattle would be nearly certainly eliminated from the division race. Playoff odds drop to 38%.

- Overall: Winning out (11-5) gives Seattle a 31% chance at winning the division. Losing one (10-6) will still allow a nearly certain playoff berth, but divisional odds drop to 9%. 9-7 would take Seattle's chances of making it down to 74%.

Giants (5-6)- Division 22%, Playoffs 24%. Next week: vs NYJ

- Best case scenario: Giants win, Redskins lose. Raises divisional odds to 44%, and playoff odds to 45%. Gains control of division.

- Worst case scenario: Giants lose, Redskins win. Divisional odds drop to 9%, and playoffs to 10%.

- Overall: Winning out (10-6) earns a nearly certain playoff berth, with a 92% chance at winning the division. Losing one (9-7) drops the division odds to 70%, and the playoff odds to 88%. An 8-8 record keeps them alive in the division (40%), and even 7-9 has an outside chance (11%).

Falcons (6-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%. Next week: at TB

- Best case scenario: Falcons win, Seahawks and Bears lose. Bumps their playoff odds up to 34%, and would gain control of the wild card.

- Worst case scenario: Falcons lose, Seahawks and Bears win. Drops their playoff odds down to 4%.

- Overall: Any Panthers win or Falcons loss will knock Atlanta out of the division, but winning out (11-5) will still nearly guarantee Atlanta a playoff spot. Losing one (10-6) drops those odds slightly to 91%. 9-7 is almost a coin flip (46%).

Bears (5-6)- Division <1%, Playoffs 17%. Next week: vs SF

- Best case scenario: Bears win. Simple as that. Bumps their playoff odds up to 21%.

- Worst case scenario: Bears lose. Knocks them down to 6%.

- Overall: Winning out (10-6) gives Chicago a 92% chance at the playoffs, with a 6% chance at a division title. Losing one (9-7) is a 50-50 coin flip to earn a wild card spot.

Bucs (5-6)- Playoffs 17%. Next week: vs ATL

- Best case scenario: Bucs win, Seahawks and Bears lose. Bumps playoff odds up to 28%.

- Worst case scenario: Bucs lose, Seahawks and Bears win. Drops odds down to 4%.

- Overall: Winning out (10-6) gives a nearly certain playoff berth. Losing one (9-7) drops the odds to 79%. An 8-8 record causes that number to plummet to 17%.
 

Norg

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Ravens will some how make the playoffs u seen Matty yester day he won

I think all 3 teams from the AFC north will make the playoffs actually
 


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