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Moulds Trade Official
- Thread starter O.G.
- Start date
beerlover
Hall of Fame
Malloy said:T.O. thinks they were cheap
coachdent is right on, no doubt Philly is a tough franchise followed by just as tough fan base. they have more expereince in the NFL, believe in what they do and in the T.O. case did the correct thing, if all the NFL franchises behaved as responsibly the league would be much better off. unfortunately the Cowboys, since Jones ownership, have been willing to look the other way all in the name of winning. We'll see what it gets them, for my money I'm going to root for Philly everytime because I feel they do things the right way and will win because of teamwork and the level of their line play not as much as the skilled positions, just good ol' smash mouth, in your face butt kicking.
the Texans should just sit tight and wait to do the right thing, not overpay but offer a fair, semi-expensive contract that reflects Moulds true market value
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
bigTEXan8 said:
I think AJ has been in the league long enough to provide that to the younger WRs. he has gone up agains the Best, 2nd best, and 3rd best corners (mostly all at the same time!!!)
If the Texans can get Moulds for under $3MM a year, then it might
be worth it.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Johnson, Andre 2008 Base - $555,000 Allocated bonus - $2,383,104 $2,938,104
This is the amount hitting the cap for AJ and you want to pay Moulds more than you pay the #1 WR on the team... That would be a slap in the face to AJ who has done nothing except fight for every down and every inch.
I do not see this happening. If moulds gets released and not traded, There you will see a bidding war with teams more than just now. And at that point he is going to go somewhere that a team has a excellent chance to win a SB not next year, but this year.
This is the amount hitting the cap for AJ and you want to pay Moulds more than you pay the #1 WR on the team... That would be a slap in the face to AJ who has done nothing except fight for every down and every inch.
I do not see this happening. If moulds gets released and not traded, There you will see a bidding war with teams more than just now. And at that point he is going to go somewhere that a team has a excellent chance to win a SB not next year, but this year.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
This analysis makes no sense. Andre is on his rookie deal. Moulds is a 10 yr vet looking for the bigger payday. AJ will get his on the next deal. It's not real hard to understand. This isn't unique. Young guys don't make as much as seasoned 3 time pr0-bowlers. And, we won't get this guy for 3 mil a yr. You people seem to have a death wish or something. Kevin Walter as our #2 or Moulds? Let's see, that's a hard one.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:This analysis makes no sense. Andre is on his rookie deal. Moulds is a 10 yr vet looking for the bigger payday. AJ will get his on the next deal. It's not real hard to understand. This isn't unique. Young guys don't make as much as seasoned 3 time pr0-bowlers. And, we won't get this guy for 3 mil a yr. You people seem to have a death wish or something. Kevin Walter as our #2 or Moulds? Let's see, that's a hard one.
WALTER
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Just read this on ESPN.. Interesting.
Moulds no longer deep threatBy KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
The only player to have generated significant interest around the league despite not being a free agent is Eric Moulds. Moulds has a $10.85 million cap number for the 2006 season, and the Bills have given him permission to seek a trade. As many as seven teams reportedly are interested in him.
One of the reasons Moulds wants to be traded is his unhappiness with the way he was used during the 2005 season. Moulds did catch 81 passes last year, ranking him 15th in the league in that category. However, he gained only 816 yards, 33rd in the league, and the 10.1 yards per reception ranked him 74th in the AFC. These numbers are down from his 2004 totals of 88 catches, 1,043 yards and 11.9 yards per reception.
The reduction in production would seem to suggest that Moulds has a legitimate complaint. I decided to conduct a metric analysis to see how his 2005 numbers compared with those of previous seasons.
First, here are his receiving metrics from the 2005 season:
Eric Moulds- 2005
Depth Attempts Comp Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 91 68 545 2 1 9 6.1
Medium 20 10 167 0 1 4 8.6
Deep 17 3 104 2 1 20 7.3
Total 128 81 816 4 3 33 6.6
Now take a look at Moulds' 2004 metrics:
Eric Moulds- 2004
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 100 68 644 1 1 5 6.5
Medium 24 14 208 2 2 -5 8.5
Deep 24 6 191 2 3 28 9.1
Total 148 88 1043 5 6 28 7.2
These numbers are largely identical, particularly if we keep in mind that Moulds played in only 15 games in 2005 because of his suspension for violating team policy.
It might look as though the Bills were using Moulds more as a short pass receiver in 2005, but his role was almost identical in 2004. Last season, Moulds averaged 6.1 short pass attempts per game, compared with 6.3 in 2004. Moulds actually helped himself in this category by improving his short pass completion percentage by nearly 7percent from 2004 to 2005.
Moulds wants people to believe his vertical pass attempts were reduced last year, and he is technically correct. It was reduced from 48 medium/deep pass attempts in 2004 to 37 in 2005, but you have to factor in the difference in games. Once you factor that in, it only amounts to a .5 difference in attempts per game.
The reason Moulds doesn't catch many deep passes is he simply doesn't get open deep. One of the things I measure on every pass play is the degree to which the receiver was open. I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage.
Calculating the number of steps is fairly basic. I simply look for the separation between the receiver and defender when the pass is thrown. Determining the quality of the coverage is more subjective. When a defender has good coverage, it will take a perfect pass by the quarterback to beat him. When a defender has tight coverage, even a perfect pass likely will not beat him.
During the 2004 season, Moulds ranked 85th out of 87 qualifying receivers in tight-good coverage percentage on deep passes. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on 62.5 percent of his deep pass attempts that season, meaning it was highly unlikely the pass was going to be completed because he simply wasn't open.
His deep pass coverage metrics weren't much better in 2005. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on nine of his 17 deep pass attempts, which equates to 53 percent of his deep passes.
Moulds still can be a significant player for the right team, provided he can accept the role his current skill set dictates he should fill. The Bills certainly still could use him as a possession receiver. The Texans are rumored to be very interested in Moulds, and they certainly could use a strong No. 2 receiver to complement Andre Johnson. The Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks also certainly could use a reliable possession receiver.
The ball is in Moulds' court. If he markets himself as a possession receiver, he will have plenty of options. If he insists on being paid as a vertical threat, most teams are going to lose interest.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com.
Moulds no longer deep threatBy KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
The only player to have generated significant interest around the league despite not being a free agent is Eric Moulds. Moulds has a $10.85 million cap number for the 2006 season, and the Bills have given him permission to seek a trade. As many as seven teams reportedly are interested in him.
One of the reasons Moulds wants to be traded is his unhappiness with the way he was used during the 2005 season. Moulds did catch 81 passes last year, ranking him 15th in the league in that category. However, he gained only 816 yards, 33rd in the league, and the 10.1 yards per reception ranked him 74th in the AFC. These numbers are down from his 2004 totals of 88 catches, 1,043 yards and 11.9 yards per reception.
The reduction in production would seem to suggest that Moulds has a legitimate complaint. I decided to conduct a metric analysis to see how his 2005 numbers compared with those of previous seasons.
First, here are his receiving metrics from the 2005 season:
Eric Moulds- 2005
Depth Attempts Comp Yards TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 91 68 545 2 1 9 6.1
Medium 20 10 167 0 1 4 8.6
Deep 17 3 104 2 1 20 7.3
Total 128 81 816 4 3 33 6.6
Now take a look at Moulds' 2004 metrics:
Eric Moulds- 2004
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen Yds/Att
Short 100 68 644 1 1 5 6.5
Medium 24 14 208 2 2 -5 8.5
Deep 24 6 191 2 3 28 9.1
Total 148 88 1043 5 6 28 7.2
These numbers are largely identical, particularly if we keep in mind that Moulds played in only 15 games in 2005 because of his suspension for violating team policy.
It might look as though the Bills were using Moulds more as a short pass receiver in 2005, but his role was almost identical in 2004. Last season, Moulds averaged 6.1 short pass attempts per game, compared with 6.3 in 2004. Moulds actually helped himself in this category by improving his short pass completion percentage by nearly 7percent from 2004 to 2005.
Moulds wants people to believe his vertical pass attempts were reduced last year, and he is technically correct. It was reduced from 48 medium/deep pass attempts in 2004 to 37 in 2005, but you have to factor in the difference in games. Once you factor that in, it only amounts to a .5 difference in attempts per game.
The reason Moulds doesn't catch many deep passes is he simply doesn't get open deep. One of the things I measure on every pass play is the degree to which the receiver was open. I track the number of steps a receiver was open by and whether the defender had what I term good coverage or tight coverage.
Calculating the number of steps is fairly basic. I simply look for the separation between the receiver and defender when the pass is thrown. Determining the quality of the coverage is more subjective. When a defender has good coverage, it will take a perfect pass by the quarterback to beat him. When a defender has tight coverage, even a perfect pass likely will not beat him.
During the 2004 season, Moulds ranked 85th out of 87 qualifying receivers in tight-good coverage percentage on deep passes. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on 62.5 percent of his deep pass attempts that season, meaning it was highly unlikely the pass was going to be completed because he simply wasn't open.
His deep pass coverage metrics weren't much better in 2005. Moulds had tight or good coverage against him on nine of his 17 deep pass attempts, which equates to 53 percent of his deep passes.
Moulds still can be a significant player for the right team, provided he can accept the role his current skill set dictates he should fill. The Bills certainly still could use him as a possession receiver. The Texans are rumored to be very interested in Moulds, and they certainly could use a strong No. 2 receiver to complement Andre Johnson. The Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, Broncos and Seahawks also certainly could use a reliable possession receiver.
The ball is in Moulds' court. If he markets himself as a possession receiver, he will have plenty of options. If he insists on being paid as a vertical threat, most teams are going to lose interest.
KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com.
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
Kaiser Toro said:
Nice article.
My favorite quote:
"Some of the things you hear people say just defy reality," Banner said. "I spoke to someone recently and they were raving about all of the Cowboys' moves. Well, they lost two starting linebackers [Scott Fujita and Dat Nguyen], a starting defensive tackle [La'Roi Glover], a starting left guard [Larry Allen], and a starting wide receiver [Keyshawn Johnson] and they added T.O. We'll see how the season goes. But as far as comparing offseasons [between the Eagles and Cowboys], it's not even close.
"The Cowboys have had some good drafts and have some young, emerging players and it's reasonable to expect they're going to be very good. But if you just rated their additions and subtractions in free agency, you'd conclude that they lost a lot of guys.''
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Hawg said:Are you suggesting that Walter would be a better number two than Moulds?
I was told to say it in the previous post. No, Kevin is not where Moulds is. That is obvious 11 year vet versus a 3 year.
All I am saying that he is better than #3 and a competitive #2. That is all.
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Ok i was just making sure. I do agree that Walter was a nice addition but if the Texans were to bring Moulds in there would be no contest as to who would be the number 2 and who would be the number three. But I think that Walter will be a nice slot reciever. He as good size and reasonably good speed from what i hear.
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
Porky said:
I dunno. You might disagree with his point of view but he seemed to support it pretty well.
IIRC, he likes Moulds if you could get him at the right price. Otherwise, he thinks that Walters has a lot of promise if he can get onto the field and has stated why he feels that way.
I am not sure that he should be written off as having a completely irrational point of view that has zero credibility, but to each her own.
Personally, I am in the position of not wanting to overpay for a malcontent egoist demanding a release. If we get him at the right price, it is one thing, but otherwise, I am not sure of the sort of veteran leadership he provides.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:
I have great credibility when it comes to football. I live football and that is why I can comment with confidence and back it up with stats. I am not one of these uneducated posters that just put something out there willy-nilly without having a reason to post it nor able to share something outside of Texans football about a player(s) that many may not have known about. If you read my posts they all have been good informative posts. with exception to the recent post you commented about as I just finally blurted out a response to another comment.
All kidding aside, 95% of the people who post here I enjoy reading and learning more about the Texans. This is how I know I have something in common with Texans.
Thank you for your comment.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Texans_Chick said:
I LOVE TEXANS CHICK!!!
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Wherever you're getting your information from, it's incorrect. His base in '05 was 555k but his big base money kicks in this year.
AJs base this year is 5 million, his base next year is 5.25 million, and his base in '08 is 7.75. Add at least $2.25 per year to get his cap hit. (that doesn't include bonuses or other incentives.
His original contract was worth almost $39 million over six years. He received a signing bonus of $13.5 million and there were other incentives.
Whatever happens with Moulds, AJ will continue to be the highest paid receiver on the team by a long shot.
TexanSam
Hall of Fame
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
And he has one good season to show for it. Moulds has about 10. If Moulds comes here, then AJ would probably see it as a challenge to compete with one of the best. Competition brings out the best in anyone. And if someone's complaining about making over $2.5 million a year...give me a break.
coachdent
Waterboy
aj. said:
Here is a link to the Texans' cap numbers. AJ is $7.38 million against the cap this season.
http://www.houstonprofootball.com/cap.html
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
aj. said:
Sorry, that was 2005 cap numbers here are the 2006 cap numbers
Johnson, Andre 2008 $5,000,000 $2,383,664 $7,383,664
From www.Houstonprofootball.com
bigTEXan8
Rookie
In reference to what Bearfan posted, I also think that Mould's "deep threat" credibility has been hampered because of the way Lee Evans has really stepped up. Evans has become more of the "deep threat" on that team because of his speed. I think it's also the reason why Mould had a falling out with the coaching staff of the Bills towards the end of the last season.
Ibar_Harry
All Pro
Based on the ESPN analysis Moulds would be a good fit at #2 as AJ would be the vertical threat along with Speedy Gonzales (Mathis). Walter fits in well in this scheme. The pick up of Moulds would probably end our WR search for this season. In fact we might have to decide what do do with Starling and/or Armstrong. If BJ comes along we are probably set at TE as well. We could possibly be targeting defense then in the draft other than the 1st round pick. Given the type of offense we will be running I don't think D'brick is a candidate. If we trade down it would be for defensive players or the freak TE from Maryland.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Moulds still not a great deal for Texans unless $3MM or less.
I wonder if Moulds would even take less than $4.5MM being that he was to make double that
I wonder if Moulds would even take less than $4.5MM being that he was to make double that
TEXANRED
Texan-American
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Here's what I say. We just spent $7m on a #4, #3 at best who was a seventh round pick. Moulds is worth the fourth round pick and $5m a year.
Moulds is still a solid player who changes the way the D plans for your O. I don't care how old he is. Despite what some have said he has not lost a step. There is no evidence to say such a thing.He has got moves to break double teams (somthing AJ needs to learn) sure handed, fast, and again, veteran leadership brought to this very young receiving core.
Sorry with Moulds and AJ and Bush and DD I see playoffs, division tittles, superbowls. More sooner than later.
Not to mention respectability.
Worth every penny if you ask me.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Okay Bearfan you modifed your position so I understand better what you are saying. I still don't agree with it, but I understand your position. I think you are dreaming if you think we will get Moulds for 3 mil. With the new money floating around due to the cap, teams are willing to spend more. I think he will sign for between 4.5 and 5 mil per yr myself, and when you see what he does to help AJ and the rest of the offense (well beyond his personal stats) then you will see he is worth it. Walter is a joke as a legit #2 on a team that wants to have a decent offense. Fortunetely, Kubes knows this, and is trying like hell to do something about it.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
aj. said:
Not sure if it is part of the subliminal message, but everytime I hear Toshiba lately I think of Casserly in a straightjacket with duct tape over his mouth.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
TEXANRED said:
You spent $1.2MM a year on a #3 viable #2 here in Texas
There are two parts that everyone is missing here, or that noone talks about...
1. Buffalo still owns Moulds, so even if you get a deal done with Moulds, you still have to deal with Buffalo and what you are going to give them. So the deal could still be broken off if they feel they must have a 3rd rounder.
2. opposite of above.
Then if there is no deal and they happen to release Moulds, a bidding war will begin and I truely believe that is what Moulds wants to happen. If there is a bidding war, He will probably get in the area of $5MM a year short term contract.
And I believe it will be more teams than the original 5 or 6 now down to 2 or 3 because noone is going to have to give up a draft pick.
Just a thought. I am thinking that 4th round pick or 3rd round pick could be used for a safety or other defense starters needed much more than another WR.
Offseason FA has improved the offensive side of the ball, not to mention noone even knows the offensive scheme they are going to be running yet. Especially if you add Bush!!!
Defense has also been helped in FA, but I think there is the need for 1 or 2 LBs, S, and a another true PASS RUSHER DE.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:
I am not understanding why he is a JOKE at #2. What do you know about him that you can base that judgement on. If he is a joke, why did Kube RUN out and get him on the first day of FA?
Porky
Hall of Fame
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
I don't mean to keep dogging you, but your takes are incredibly weak on this subject. The biggest need on the entire team right now is a solid #2 WR. "saving" a 4th rd pick to use on a rookie safety who may or may not ever pan out, instead of a proven player in the biggest need position on the field makes zero sense. Thankfully, Kubes is in charge, and not you, as he also recognizes this as fact.
Porky
Hall of Fame
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Because he has good upside, is young, and can develop. They like his size, and I think he can be a good red zone weapon. Having said that, he has proven exactly squat, and will not cause defenses to game plan around him, or double him, or do pretty much anything that makes others around him better.
And now a question for you. If they think that highly of him, why have they tried like heck to sign every really good WR available on the market?
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:
My guess is because they want to solidify a backup to Walter? Just kidding...
My guess is because they know he has upside and that is why they signed him to a multi year deal and the pressing need to soldify the #2 WR with a Probowl Veteran if they can makes the best sense and if there happens to be injury or otherwise, they can look to walter who has proven when called upon, delivers.
As far as defenses not gameplanning against Kevin, You have to some extent, because if Chad or TJ were covered, guess who got the look and has a reputation of great hands; Walter.
But you are correct in the fact that if Texans can get Moulds, for the right price (I know he will not get signed for $3MM or less) but Let's just not give more than the cost benefit makes sense.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:
I am not that sure they tried like heck... if they really wanted to be agressive, they would have offered Buffalo one of the 3rd rounders and it would have been a done deal and give Moulds his 5 Million. That would be trying like heck.
I believe they are trying within reason of being competitive and jsut as you commented to me thank God Kube is the decision maker and not you and he realizes the benefit must outweigh the cost of getting him (it is still a business)
Porky
Hall of Fame
Bearfan Blue and Orange said:
Dude, you are just way off in timbuktu on this subject. They had a lot of interest in Nate Bureleson, but Seattle overpaid. They brought in David Givens, and offered him close to 3.8 mil avg per yr, and Tenn ended up overpaying. Now they are trying to get Moulds. All of these WR's have the ability to be a #1, much less a #2. If you cannot see we are making a serious run to get a legit #2, then there is no help for you. We aren't going to give up a #3 because we don't need to. Why would we? Just for grins? Buffalo has very little leverage. Everyone knows Moulds will be released at some point. Philly is apprently offering a 6th, and yet, we should offer a #3? I don't get it.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
Porky said:
You are reading my response too literally like that is what I said should be happening. My point was that it is off base to offer a 3rd round pick for moulds and a 4th is borderline. The reason I say is borderline is because Texans are the 1st pick in the 4th round. If Texans were 20th in the 4th round that would make more sense.
My point exactly. Did the other teams "overpay" because they were higher than the Texans offer? Hypothetical now... Kube has in his head what he is willing to part with.
As for Nate, they cancelled the visit the day after Kevin was released from the Bengals. Not to mention they did not want to give up a #3 to Minnesota.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
"trying like hell" (Sounds like "there is no tomorrow")
versus very interested is a huge difference.
versus very interested is a huge difference.
TexanAddict
Texan 'til I Die
The longer this goes on, the more I'm beginning to feel as though we're being used the same way we were with the Orlando Pace deal. I get the feeling that Moulds is simply using us to increase the amount the Eagles (the team he apparently wants to play for) are willing to give him. I think if we do get him he could contribute, but only if he really wants to be here. I also hope we don't get sucked into some kind of bidding war over him.
texanfan2002114
Veteran
TexanAddict said:
The Eagles also know that Moulds "really" wants to play for them according to Moulds agent, so they aren't in a hurry to give him more money, and see how bad he wants to play there.
I don't think the Texans are going to get into a bidding war because they would have gone after David Givens then.
Bearfan Blue and Orange
Waterboy
texanfan2002114 said:
Do you think that the Eagles, knowing that Moulds wants to play there, is lowballing them, in hopes that they will release him and immediately the Eagles can offer money and still keep their draft pick (the draft pick the buffalo would have wanted, not necessarily what they offered)
TexanFan881
All Pro
Not very important update on kffl on moulds
TD
Super Bowl Mascot
Porky said:
I agree. I know it sounds cliche', but often the best moves really are the ones not made. I'm encouraged to see that we're not giving first tier compensation for 2nd tier players. If we can get Moulds for FMV, great. It would be a good addition. If not...on to the next.