More sacks in 2012 - Whitney Mercilus or Mario Williams?

[TdotTexas2Step]

Sacks are not always a 1 on 1 matchup kind of things. Other players on the front 7 also play into the equation with the OP's topic question.

 

[NitroGSXR]

Let's be realistic here. Mercilus may get to 15 sacks eventually but it's highly unlikely he does it on his rookie year. If Mercilus puts 15 sacks next year that would break the rookie sack record. Last year was an anomaly with 12 guys getting more than 5 sacks and the rookie with most sacks (Aldon Smith) had 14. In 2010, there were 2 guys with more than 5 sacks (Suh had the most with 10); in 2009 again only 2 had more than 5 (Orakpo with 11 was the best); in 2008 no rookie had more than 5; in 2007 only 2 had more than 5 (Gaines Adams had the most with 6. Okoye had 5.5).

If Mercilus can get more than 5 sacks next year that would be a great season for a rookie. If he can get to 10 he'd be a premier candidate for DROY.

Have to bump this post backed by numbers.

Rep.

 

[dsorc]

The rookies were like this last year because the coaches simplified the playbook and made it easy on the rookies because of shortened offseason. Mercilus is being thrown into same situation as Aldon Smith. Just rotational only passing downs and he got 14 sacks. It's not impossible if Kubiak does the same thing simplifying everything for the rookies then he could potentially get 10.

Mercilus could get to 10 if he gets enough opportunities but we should temper expectations. Last year was an anomaly not only because of the lack of training camp but also the draft looks to have been loaded. Here are all the rookies to get at least 10 sacks since 2007 (past 5 years):
2011 Aldon Smith 14
2011 Von Miller 11.5
2010 Ndamukong Suh 10
2009 Brian Orakpo 11
2009 Clay Matthews 10
2007-8 None

 

[TejasTom]

Whitney Mercilus hears the talk that he’s Mario Williams’ replacement

“A lot of people are saying the Texans drafted me to replace Mario,” Mercilus said on NBC Sports Talk. “I’m a new guy coming in and I have to learn the ropes, use my talents and what is taught to me to become a great player, and eventually I’ll try to attain my goals to be great, just like that.”

Here is the link to article and interview: Profootball Talk on NBC

 

[BattleRedRock]

No doubt. Reed didn't get drafted in the high 2nd round because he was slow and anyone thinking Mercilus or Barwin is just simply going to move him out of his spot is foolish.

I think we're going to see the essence of a rotation. 3 above average players, no superstar, just rotating and cleaning up. The only one flaw I see is what of Mercilus' ability (or inability) to drop into a few simple coverages. I think he'll be playing weakside most of the time this season, Barwin and Reed can both play sam over the TE to disguise intentions.

Reed is slow....

As for the thread, I'll go with last year's winner, Mercilus.

The Reed pick last year was for depth purposes only, if mario doesnt get hurt dude hardly sees the field. and as far as their speed, you can not tell me that REED has a quicker first step than Mercilus, has better hands than Mercilus? Speed doesnt just consist of running down field or a statistical 40 time. Its feet work its shooting your hands to the chest of blockers, its coming off the corners.. im sorry to inform you but Mercilus IS faster and quicker. And i know he is not mario but before mario got hurt wade was rushing him virtually every down. if he does not do the same with him at first i think eventually he will. Wade already commented that Merc was a better rusher than reed. And rookie sack records? its a record, records are meant to be broken so whos to say he doesnt break it.

 

[Corrosion]

2 to 3 years? what? he is a natural pass rusher, NATURAL. this guy is the 2nd best linebacker on this team already next to Cush. I mean dont get me wrong Barwin is pretty good and Reed is not bad but im talking not only does he have a high motor but hes got the skill and talent to go with it. Reed is pretty slow and some times does not take on blocks very well, Barwin has decent speed but he is just relentless probably has the best cardio and endurance on the team. I think if he focuses on MURKelus like he did with Mario b4 his injury, i think the dude puts up 15 easily... BOOK IT!!!!

Only 4 players in the NFL put up 15 or more last season (2011).... Jared Allen (22) , DeMarcus Ware (19.5) , Jason Babin (18) , Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5).

Only One put up 15 or more in 2010. DeMarcus Ware

Only One put up 15 or more in 2009. Elvis Dumervil


Mario Williams has never had 15+ in a season. his best was 14 in 2007 and 12 in 2008 , the only two seasons he's reached double figures.


If you expect 15 from a rookie , you are smoking some good sh!t ....

 

[beerlover]

This wasn't a question of how many sacks per say, only that who has the higher end of year total. Mario in Buffalo or Mercilus in Houston?

 

[Corrosion]

This wasn't a question of how many sacks per say, only that who has the higher end of year total. Mario in Buffalo or Mercilus in Houston?

I know that .... was just responding to BattleRedRock's notion of 15+ by the rookie.

For the record , I went with MW in Barffalo in the poll because I dont believe Mercilus will see near as many snaps. Barwin & Reed are the bookends .... Mercilus will be the backup and or situational guy.

Hell , all things being equal in the snap department , I still think MW ends up with more sacks.


Im really looking forward to how Wade gets all these pass rushers on the field at the same time ..... Will make for some interesting fronts in passing situations.

 

[Lambert]

Mario got 4 sacks in his Rookie season playing most of the snaps. I don't think Mercilus will get to play most of the snaps. In Whitney's first two years at Illinois when he wasn't getting all the snaps, he averaged maybe 2 sacks per year. Take it from there.

And, oh yeah, if you think Reed is slow or is slower than Mercilus take a look at the combine times for the 10 yard split. And, a concert piano player has better hands than Mercilus........

 

[Allstar]

Mario got 4 sacks in his Rookie season playing most of the snaps. I don't think Mercilus will get to play most of the snaps. In Whitney's first two years at Illinois when he wasn't getting all the snaps, he averaged maybe 2 sacks per year. Take it from there.

And, oh yeah, if you think Reed is slow or is slower than Mercilus take a look at the combine times for the 10 yard split. And, a concert piano player has better hands than Mercilus........

Mario struggled with injuries his entire rookie year and didn't exactly have a typical start to a career for a big time pass rusher. I can point to Aldon Smith and make an opposite argument. The best thing Mercilus has going for him is Wade Phillips. Wade can scheme to give my grandma 6 sacks if she played the Will for us.

That being said, I would be very surprised to see Mercilus get more sacks than a proven player like Mario, especially with the disparity in playing time.