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Is Anthony Richardson The #1 QB In The Draft Post-Combine?

Texian said:
Richardson has still only started 13 games and produced a 53.9% completion percentage with a TD-to-INT ratio of < 2. In contrast, Cam Newton last year at Auburn had a 66.1 completion % and a TD-to-INT ratio of > 4. In addition, Auburn went undefeated and won a national championship, Newton also rushed for 20 TDs and won the Heisman Trophy.
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If Anthony Richardson had done the things Cam Newton did in 2010, he would be hands down the #1 pick. He hasn't come close to doing those things.
 
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badboy said:
He is big, Strong and extremely fast but that does not mean he can run routes and be a wide receiver.
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Instead of wasting all the development time, aka Tim Tebow, draft him as an ultra athletic TE and let his career clock start ticking.
 
xtruroyaltyx said:
I have no idea what being big strong and fast has to do with anything ive ever said about him.

Try again.
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You said you'd liked him before the combine and nothing that happened during the combine changed that view.The only thing that happened in the combine was his Athletics , speed and Cannon arm. I was hoping you could state why you thought he would be a starting quarterback. I know he has potential and am waiting someone to expain how his accuracy 53% will potentially get better. It was not a dig at you but an opportunity to give us hope if Caserio drafts him.
 
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badboy said:
You said you'd liked him before the combine and nothing that happened during the combine changed that view.The only thing that happened in the combine was his Athletics , speed and Cannon arm. I was hoping you could state why you thought he would be a starting quarterback. I know he has potential and am waiting someone to expain how his accuracy 53% will potentially get better. It was not a dif at you but an opportunity to give us hope if Caserio drafts him.
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I've gone over this before, but I will lay it out again. First, I have a coaches mindset so I don't look at any of these guys as a finished product, especially guys that have only started one year.

As far as how his accuracy will get better....first, I believe he was top ten in the nation in deep balls thrown. Florida asked him to throw it deep a bunch. here's a video showing his heat map showing what areas of the field he primarily targeted:

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are just two guys who come to mind who have improved their accuracy. Both guys after three years starting never got their average over 60% in college. Patrick Mahomes freshman year he was at 56% completion percentage. When Russel Wilson was in College his first three years his highest completion% was 59%. His freshman year he was 54%. His last year in College at a different school in a different system in a different conference his percentage shot up to 72%. AR does have accuracy and processing issues that he needs to clean up for sure that have nothing do with any external factor and are completely on him.

I highlighted the bolded part above because I've never said that. Just like with the other top three prospects I believe they COULD be successful starting NFL quarterbacks. The right situation and the right coaching staff will matter for all these guys. That's not to say if any of them busts it's 100% because they were in the wrong situation. And again, I like all 4 of the top QB prospects for one reason or another and I think all 4 could go either way. That's JMO.
 
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badboy said:
You said you'd liked him before the combine and nothing that happened during the combine changed that view.The only thing that happened in the combine was his Athletics , speed and Cannon arm. I was hoping you could state why you thought he would be a starting quarterback. I know he has potential and am waiting someone to expain how his accuracy 53% will potentially get better. It was not a dif at you but an opportunity to give us hope if Caserio drafts him.
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The same way Lamar Jackson's accuracy got better and Josh Allen's: repetition and refinement of mechanics. LJ completion % at Louisville was 54.7%, 56.2% and 59.1% respectively. His TD/INT ration and Y/A weren't that great for an NFL prospect. Josh Allen was 56.0 and 56.3% in two years as the starter in Wyoming. Yet, both are MVP-type players at their position and win games throwing the ball.

Now, if you have a measurable monster like Colin Kaepernick who needed major refinement in throwing mechanics and had a long release, there's more reason to worry. But the thing to find hopeful about Richardson is he's pretty short, compact and fluid—not much wasted motion at all. So projecting out, it's easy to see him getting more under control with experience and repetition, because he doesn't need to revamp his mechanics. And he got a canon, throwing 60MPH velocity.

Combine that with measurables we've never seen before, it makes him an exciting prospect. With that ability to run, one that can be brought about slowly in the passing game as he evolves, like Jackson and Allen in the pro game.

Edit: This was posted just now on YT. It is a slow-frame side-by-side comparison of the throwing motions of Stroud and Richardson. AR-15 just as compact as Stroud—maybe a frame quicker even. That's a great sign, although AR looks a bit too upright to me. I do like Stroud's mechanics a lot though, I must say.

 
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I’m interested in Richardson under two conditions. First, sign Jimmy G in FA. I know he won’t hold up, but maybe he lasts long enough to let Richardson get coached up. Second, that he can’t be the 1.2 pick. Either go Anderson and then trade up a few spots from 1.12 or preferably, trade down from 1.2 and take him there. If he is gone, take Hooker or Levis at 2.33. I think Levis was the loser at the combine among top QBs so not out of the question he is available at 33.

All in all, I’d still sit at 1.2 and take Stroud or Young, but the above is an intriguing option.
 
xtruroyaltyx said:
I've gone over this before, but I will lay it out again. First, I have a coaches mindset so I don't look at any of these guys as a finished product, especially guys that have only started one year.

As far as how his accuracy will get better....first, I believe he was top ten in the nation in deep balls thrown. Florida asked him to throw it deep a bunch. here's a video showing his heat map showing what areas of the field he primarily targeted:

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are just two guys who come to mind who have improved their accuracy. Both guys after three years starting never got their average over 60% in college. Patrick Mahomes freshman year he was at 56% completion percentage. When Russel Wilson was in College his first three years his highest completion% was 59%. His freshman year he was 54%. His last year in College at a different school in a different system in a different conference his percentage shot up to 72%. AR does have accuracy and processing issues that he needs to clean up for sure that have nothing do with any external factor and are completely on him.

I highlighted the bolded part above because I've never said that. Just like with the other top three prospects I believe they COULD be successful starting NFL quarterbacks. The right situation and the right coaching staff will matter for all these guys. That's not to say if any of them busts it's 100% because they were in the wrong situation. And again, I like all 4 of the top QB prospects for one reason or another and I think all 4 could go either way. That's JMO.
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reply I was hoping for giving info. To clarify on bolded, I didn't mean to imply you said AR would be a starter but as you like him, how do you see him coached up to meet the claims from others he can be first QB off board or even an NFL starter year one. I think Panthers would take him at #9 but not on a trade up to 1 or 2. However I really hope they do.. forcing other players down. Thanks for your input.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
The same way Lamar Jackson's accuracy got better and Josh Allen's: repetition and refinement of mechanics. LJ completion % at Louisville was 54.7%, 56.2% and 59.1% respectively. His TD/INT ration and Y/A weren't that great for an NFL prospect. Josh Allen was 56.0 and 56.3% in two years as the starter in Wyoming. Yet, both are MVP-type players at their position and win games throwing the ball.

Now, if you have a measurable monster like Colin Kaepernick who needed major refinement in throwing mechanics and had a long release, there's more reason to worry. But the thing to find hopeful about Richardson is he's pretty short, compact and fluid—not much wasted motion at all. So projecting out, it's easy to see him getting more under control with experience and repetition, because he doesn't need to revamp his mechanics. And he got a canon, throwing 60MPH velocity.

Combine that with measurables we've never seen before, it makes him an exciting prospect. With that ability to run, one that can be brought about slowly in the passing game as he evolves, like Jackson and Allen in the pro game.

Edit: This was posted just now on YT. It is a slow-frame side-by-side comparison of the throwing motions of Stroud and Richardson. AR-15 just as compact as Stroud—maybe a frame quicker even. That's a great sign, although AR looks a bit too upright to me. I do like Stroud's mechanics a lot though, I must say.

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Cannon arm granted and better accuracy down field but if Texans draft him doesn't that require us to get at least two WRs that can get deep and then catch? I am okay with this but that means top three selections barring trades acquiring more will be offense.. if Quentin's pro day has him 4.46 or lower.
 
badboy said:
Cannon arm granted and better accuracy down field but if Texans draft him doesn't that require us to get at least two WRs that can get deep and then catch? I am okay with this but that means top three selections barring trades acquiring more will be offense.. if Quentin's pro day has him 4.46 or lower.
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If he can hit the deep stuff, he can probably hit the intermediate stuff. Just has to make the adjustment which defaults to throwing high (is he standing too upright??). That throwing motion lends itself to repeatability and projectibility, so not worried about it - unless he has some sort of processing issue. Biggest fear is Richardson going to the Colts and in Steichen's hands... Not sure he fits the WCO we want to run, but would 100000% love to take a swing at 1.2 if someone is silly enough to trade up for Stroud at #1.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
If he can hit the deep stuff, he can probably hit the intermediate stuff. Just has to make the adjustment which defaults to throwing high (is he standing too upright??). That throwing motion lends itself to repeatability and projectibility, so not worried about it - unless he has some sort of processing issue. Biggest fear is Richardson going to the Colts and in Steichen's hands... Not sure he fits the WCO we want to run, but would 100000% love to take a swing at 1.2 if someone is silly enough to trade up for Stroud at #1.
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I am hoping Colts trade for 2 as some cheaper and then Panthers go for 4. Teams just leave Bears at 1.
 
Decim8 said:
AR only played 13 games in college, that itself scares the crap out of me. Imo 1.2 is waaaaay to high a risk for someone who hasn’t had too many games under his belt as well as not looking all that great in the games he’s played in
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I see your point for sure, so definitely don't want to get into a lengthy debate about it. Just like Young's size, Richardson's tape will be a deal breaker for some. Fair enough. Personally, I put more emphasis on projectability than most. And his throwing to my eyes looks very fluid and repeatable, so I'm all in. YMMV.

On the second point, just want to point out that Richardson had 17 Td's and 5 INT's in his last 9 games, after starting 0 TDs/4 INTS his first three. So improvement is subjective. Certainly a big project 100%, but I'm sold of the upside and repeatability of throwing mechanics.
 
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badboy said:
I am hoping Colts trade for 2 as some cheaper and then Panthers go for 4. Teams just leave Bears at 1.
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Nah, Bears are moving. They're not taking a QB and Carter or Anderson will be there at 3-4 and probably 4-5 is someone trades up with Arizona to grab one of the Big 3 QBs. Chicago's defensive lynchpin with be there several spots back, so they have no reason not to. I see a distinct possibility of QBs being selected 1-2-3 this year. And Will Levis ain't in that group.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
Nah, Bears are moving. They're not taking a QB and Carter or Anderson will be there at 3-4 and probably 4-5 is someone trades up with Arizona to grab one of the Big 3 QBs. Chicago's defensive lynchpin with be there several spots back, so they have no reason not to. I see a distinct possibility of QBs being selected 1-2-3 this year. And Will Levis ain't in that group.
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…..and I truly hope the Texans aren’t in that group either.
 
Texansphan said:
It would be fantastic if Texans take a trade out of #2. Would love to see that happen.
Could probably still get Levis if they want and pick up some extra draft capital.
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If I’m putting a guess on the table….I believe the Texans are waiting to see what Garoppolo’s desires would be on a new contract. If they fall in line, Garoppolo becomes a Texan.

This move could lock Mills up as their developmental QB. Why? He has all the physical attributes of Levis, but (2) years of early NFL OJT. The team could be viewing Mills as a solid WCO QB, maybe in the mold of a Schaub…..and with a little time on the sideline with Garoppolo, he becomes the QB they envisioned.

If this doesn’t pan out, they go QB shopping in 2024.

As for the 2023 NFL Draft, Texans utilize those picks to shore up the Dirty “Baker’s”Dozen (13) while adding some key skill position players.
 
Mills stinks. Could he improve? Sure but I wouldn't count on it. He processes too slowly to ever be worth a damn. That said, the WCO offense is QB friendly which might help that deficiency somewhat, and I think he'll have a real set of coaches to guide him. But his ceiling is low. There is no way in hell they are banking on him becoming Schaub or better. That's a good way for Nick to be canned.

If they sign Jimmy which I'd put at 35/65 yes/no at the moment, then they draft their star of the future and let him mellow until Jimmy is hurt which everyone knows will eventually happen. The guy reminds me of Chris Chandler. When healthy Chandler was pretty darn good, even went to a couple of pro-bowls. But he couldn't stay healthy. Yet, he had enough talent that teams kept signing him based on "when healthy" potential. People started calling him Chris Chandelier because he was made of delicate glass. And if you're wondering, he was 6' 4" and 225 lbs.

When it comes to injuries, size only plays a small role IMO. I'm not nearly as concerned as some of you guys as it relates to Bryce, but different conversation and I'll leave it there.
 
This is interesting. Report says Carolina got aggressive and jumped to #1 because they were worried the Colts and Raiders were honing in. Two clubs that have been linked to Richardson (Indy with Stroud too). I honestly think they may have went all-in on AR here, especially dealing their #1 WR in the process. Don't really need D.J. Moore if it's going to take AR a season or two to develop. Interesting times... Texans may have Stroud or Young on the table @ 2. We shall see. Still very unclear.

sports.yahoo.com

Report: Panthers were worried Colts, Raiders would jump them in draft order

According to Mike Silver of Bally Sports, the Panthers believed the Colts and Raiders posed a legitimate threat to trade up for the No. 1 pick. So, they just did it themselves.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
 
There's no certainty of course, but I'd be pretty surprised if Frank Reich were honing in on Anthony Richardson. He just doesn't fit his mold.

Run heavy, largely inaccurate, dodgy decision making. Just a wholly developmental project.

And I don't really say any of this to just torch Richardson. He's a project sure, but he's got a lot to offer and he could well be the right student for the right teacher. Shane Steichen or Greg Roman could possibly bring out all-pro type of film from AR, just not seeing that same scheme mesh with Reich.

I believe Stroud is the target. He fits the Reich M.O. in spades versus the field.
 
Mollywhopper said:
There's no certainty of course, but I'd be pretty surprised if Frank Reich were honing in on Anthony Richardson. He just doesn't fit his mold.

Run heavy, largely inaccurate, dodgy decision making. Just a wholly developmental project.

And I don't really say any of this to just torch Richardson. He's a project sure, but he's got a lot to offer and he could well be the right student for the right teacher. Shane Steichen or Greg Roman could possibly bring out all-pro type of film from AR, just not seeing that same scheme mesh with Reich.

I believe Stroud is the target. He fits the Reich M.O. in spades versus the field.
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You may be 100% correct. But projectability is a big thing. The total package just might be so enticing that they say f*** it, we're taking the big leap - especially after the recent successes of Hurts, Allen, Jackson etc who were also under-developed. We're talking a QB who may have shown out better than any player in the history of the combine, at any position. With throwing mechanics that are fluid/compact/repeatable and a huge arm. This is generational upside potential that may have just knocked them over. I just don;t see how you give up that type of package for Stroud or a 5'10 QB, while trading your WR1 in the process. We will keep reading the tea leaves on this...
 
ben.aires.smith said:
You may be 100% correct. But projectability is a big thing. The total package just might be so enticing that they say f*** it, we're taking the big leap - especially after the recent successes of Hurts, Allen, Jackson etc who were also under-developed. We're talking a QB who may have shown out better than any player in the history of the combine, at any position. With throwing mechanics that are fluid/compact/repeatable and a huge arm. This is generational upside potential that may have just knocked them over. I just don;t see how you give up that type of package for Stroud or a 5'10 QB, while trading your WR1 in the process. We will keep reading the tea leaves on this...
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Again, I'm basing it very much so in Reich having a type, and Richardson is essentially anethema to that type.

If he wanted projectability, which is fair, I could see it being Levis far more so than Richardson.

NFL old dogs don't take well to new tricks. That's for the young eager pups, and that's where Richardson would have the best shot at success. If you wanna see AR succeed I would think you'd want Reich and the Panthers to pass.

And when looking at Josh McCown's play history and the way he's drooled over Stroud's tape - plus Reich's type - it wouldn't surprise at all to find out they packaged this deal with Stroud in mind all along.
 
If Garrapolo signs with the Texans, he’ll do so with the understanding that he’s the #1 QB. He won’t come here to be some temporary “bridge”.
 
Carr Bombed said:
Yet due to his injury history.. will still become a temporary bridge.
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And that’s why we shouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. But I’m still pissed they didn’t draft him with the #2 pick. New England picked him instead and never used him.
 
It's lying season. Don't trust anything a team says. They didn't need to jump to 1 to draft Richardson, so I'm of the mind that it's BS.

And to answer the question in the thread title - absolutely not. Young is 1A and Stroud is 1B to me. Richardson moved up to 3rd on my list, but it's a distant 3rd to the top two guys.
 
Porky said:
It's lying season. Don't trust anything a team says. They didn't need to jump to 1 to draft Richardson, so I'm of the mind that it's BS.

And to answer the question in the thread title - absolutely not. Young is 1A and Stroud is 1B to me. Richardson moved up to 3rd on my list, but it's a distant 3rd to the top two guys.
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Moves ahead of Young to #2 on Draftkings 1st overall pick line (+275) odds. Highest point ever. We shall see. Now, just want to see if premonition was correct and to send me the money. I don't think Richardson fits the Texans scheme but Panthers I can see it.
 
Porky said:
It's lying season. Don't trust anything a team says. They didn't need to jump to 1 to draft Richardson, so I'm of the mind that it's BS.

And to answer the question in the thread title - absolutely not. Young is 1A and Stroud is 1B to me. Richardson moved up to 3rd on my list, but it's a distant 3rd to the top two guys.
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But not to all fans here.

Really doesn't even seem like a board majority believes it.

:coffee:
 
Marcus said:
Richardson would be the 2023 version of Jamarcus Russell. I’d pity the team that takes him.
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So you've heard genuine chatter about Richardson having wacky maturity issues?

For real curious because I haven't caught wind of any of that and would be interested to know.
 
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