Keep Texans Talk Google Ad Free!
Venmo Tip Jar | Paypal Tip Jar
Thanks for your support! 🍺😎👍

Hey guys, what do you think about Derek Carr..

This looks like an 11 on 7 scrimmage. Any further Carr evaluation will have to come in his bowl game.
 
Texian said:
This looks like an 11 on 7 scrimmage. Any further Carr evaluation will have to come in his bowl game.
Click to expand...

He already accepted a Senior Bowl invite, which was very smart on his part. It will be a good chance for him to showcase his ability and impress coaches.
 
Rey said:
Yes. They even move the same.

When I see him play, I see David.

Which makes me worry about his mental ability.
Click to expand...

He had better touch and placement than David ever did. Plus, he actually threw the ball away instead of running out of bounds behind the LOS.

Man that would be an interview to be a fly on the wall.
 
I'd really like to see Derek play against a strong D in a bowl game, like a Missouri or LSU to see what he can do. He's got all the physical skills, and it would be interesting to see him face a D that can provide some adversity.

If he takes the preparation side much more seriously than his brother he'd be an interesting candidate, especially in a trade down situation. You'd hope he has learned from his brothers mistakes
 
otisbean said:
I'd really like to see Derek play against a strong D in a bowl game, like a Missouri or LSU to see what he can do. He's got all the physical skills, and it would be interesting to see him face a D that can provide some adversity.

If he takes the preparation side much more seriously than his brother he'd be an interesting candidate, especially in a trade down situation. You'd hope he has learned from his brothers mistakes
Click to expand...

Most projections have Fresno St playing USC in the Las Vegas Bowl, which would be interesting. USC's defense has played very well most of the season. Their strength isn't in the secondary though.
 
i don't think he'd do very well against a stout defense..i originally thought he'd be a good option for us just based on the numbers he was putting up...but i went back and looked at a little video on him...his decision making wasn't that great and most of what i saw him throw was short underneath stuff....Deja Vu like a mother...
 
He's already married and has a kid. Normally that wouldn't be much of a problem to me, but I don't see any evidence that his priorities are any different than David's were.
 
Honoring Earl 34 said:
What if the Browns offered both their #1s for the 1st overall ?
Click to expand...

Not enough IMO. Now give me 7 , 25 & 40 .... and next years first rounder and you got a deal.


The Redskins moved from 6 to 2 giving up the #6 & 39 along with two future first round picks. I'd want compensation equal or greater for the #1 overall choice.

7 Cameron Erving
25 CJ Mosley
33 Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix
40 Tajh Boyd or Aaron Murray

Yeah , I think I could go for a draft like that.

Those very early picks are a lot more valuable today than they were just a few short years ago because they are not as expensive - no more $78m for Matthew Stafford. Instead you get Andrew Luck for 4 years $22m. That's not to compare the players but their draft position and contract value.



What's disturbing is that Carr Version 2.0 might actually be the best QB in this draft .... which is unfortunate for the Texans because I just cant see them taking him with the history of HWWNBM & Rodger.

At least he doesn't wear #8
 
Corrosion said:
Not enough IMO. Now give me 7 , 25 & 40 .... and next years first rounder and you got a deal.


The Redskins moved from 6 to 2 giving up the #6 & 39 along with two future first round picks. I'd want compensation equal or greater for the #1 overall choice.
Click to expand...

There just aren't very good odds of that happening. I doubt any team covets a player in this draft as much as Washington coveted RG3 in that draft. Washington has kind of ruined the trade back scenario because they really overpaid and people think that is fair value now. It's not.

By the draft value chart, Washington gave up about 4,000 points to grab a pick worth 2,600 points.

Getting 7, 25, 40, & a 1st next year would be about 3,750 points for a pick worth 3,000. In our scenario, it's much more likely that we get closer to fair value because we will either select a guy #1 or be desperate to trade back.
 
otisbean said:
I'd really like to see Derek play against a strong D in a bowl game, like a Missouri or LSU to see what he can do. He's got all the physical skills, and it would be interesting to see him face a D that can provide some adversity.

If he takes the preparation side much more seriously than his brother he'd be an interesting candidate, especially in a trade down situation. You'd hope he has learned from his brothers mistakes
Click to expand...

Which is why if I were an owner I wouldn't pick Derek to be my franchise QB even if he was available in the 7th rd.

I've seen enough of Rodger Carr/David Carr to last me a lifetime.
 
Corrosion said:
Not enough IMO. Now give me 7 , 25 & 40 .... and next years first rounder and you got a deal.


The Redskins moved from 6 to 2 giving up the #6 & 39 along with two future first round picks. I'd want compensation equal or greater for the #1 overall choice.

7 Cameron Erving
25 CJ Mosley
33 Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix
40 Tajh Boyd or Aaron Murray

Yeah , I think I could go for a draft like that.

Those very early picks are a lot more valuable today than they were just a few short years ago because they are not as expensive - no more $78m for Matthew Stafford. Instead you get Andrew Luck for 4 years $22m. That's not to compare the players but their draft position and contract value.



What's disturbing is that Carr Version 2.0 might actually be the best QB in this draft .... which is unfortunate for the Texans because I just cant see them taking him with the history of HWWNBM & Rodger.

At least he doesn't wear #8
Click to expand...
problem is that there is no Luck or RG3 at the top of this draft, so you won't get as big a haul.

Can you imagine McNair asking himself if he really wants to be the guy to hand 100 million dollars to the Carr family on spec?
 
WolverineFan said:
There just aren't very good odds of that happening. I doubt any team covets a player in this draft as much as Washington coveted RG3 in that draft. Washington has kind of ruined the trade back scenario because they really overpaid and people think that is fair value now. It's not.

By the draft value chart, Washington gave up about 4,000 points to grab a pick worth 2,600 points.

Getting 7, 25, 40, & a 1st next year would be about 3,750 points for a pick worth 3,000. In our scenario, it's much more likely that we get closer to fair value because we will either select a guy #1 or be desperate to trade back.
Click to expand...

The trade value chart is off though because of the contracts under the new CBA. Unless a new one has come out? High picks are much more valuable now that they carry less risk.
 
NCTexan said:
The trade value chart is off though because of the contracts under the new CBA. Unless a new one has come out? High picks are much more valuable now that they carry less risk.
Click to expand...

Good point and I agree. I'm rarely the guy who pulls out the draft chart but I do think it's still the best barometer when looking at a huge trade like that one.

Basically my point is if you're waiting for that trade offer to come along then I hope you have someone in mind for that #1 pick because odds are you're going to be turning in that card before you get close to the offer that you want.
 
Corrosion said:
Not enough IMO. Now give me 7 , 25 & 40 .... and next years first rounder and you got a deal.


The Redskins moved from 6 to 2 giving up the #6 & 39 along with two future first round picks. I'd want compensation equal or greater for the #1 overall choice.

7 Cameron Erving
25 CJ Mosley
33 Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix
40 Tajh Boyd or Aaron Murray

Yeah , I think I could go for a draft like that.

Those very early picks are a lot more valuable today than they were just a few short years ago because they are not as expensive - no more $78m for Matthew Stafford. Instead you get Andrew Luck for 4 years $22m. That's not to compare the players but their draft position and contract value.



What's disturbing is that Carr Version 2.0 might actually be the best QB in this draft .... which is unfortunate for the Texans because I just cant see them taking him with the history of HWWNBM & Rodger.

At least he doesn't wear #8
Click to expand...

Right now , nobody has revealed himself to be worth moving up for and that's a big issue . If you can get Carr's ol man a GM job , you could probably get 5 first round picks to give him a shot to draft Derek . :boogereater:
 
WolverineFan said:
Good point and I agree. I'm rarely the guy who pulls out the draft chart but I do think it's still the best barometer when looking at a huge trade like that one.

Basically my point is if you're waiting for that trade offer to come along then I hope you have someone in mind for that #1 pick because odds are you're going to be turning in that card before you get close to the offer that you want.
Click to expand...

I'm really just homering at this point and hoping we get something like 7, 25, 40, & a 1st next year. I agree with you that Washington spoiled the trade back scenario and we'd be beyond lucky to get this. I just don't want to face reality yet!
 
NCTexan said:
I'm really just homering at this point and hoping we get something like 7, 25, 40, & a 1st next year. I agree with you that Washington spoiled the trade back scenario and we'd be beyond lucky to get this. I just don't want to face reality yet!
Click to expand...

I would love a trade back like that because this team sorely needs talent at a lot of places. I won't hold out hope though. If the Texans have taught me one thing it's to stop being a homer and become a realist. I don't even get mad anymore. I see a game like last night and just nod my head and think to myself "yea, that looks about right".
 
WolverineFan said:
By the draft value chart, Washington gave up about 4,000 points to grab a pick worth 2,600 points.
Click to expand...

Not sure how you get 4000. They gave up #6 (1600), #39 (510), a 1st this year which had to be assumed mid-round and is treated as equivalent to a same year 2nd (420) and a 1st 2 years out treated as 3rd round same year pick (190) = 2720. Not a gross disparity value wise by the chart.

Getting 7, 25, 40, & a 1st next year would be about 3,750 points for a pick worth 3,000. In our scenario, it's much more likely that we get closer to fair value because we will either select a guy #1 or be desperate to trade back.
Click to expand...
#7 (1500), #25 (720), #40 (500) and next year 1st/mid 2nd this year (420) = 3140.

Neither scenario is wildly outside the chart.
 
infantrycak said:
Not sure how you get 4000. They gave up #6 (1600), #39 (510), a 1st this year which had to be assumed mid-round and is treated as equivalent to a same year 2nd (420) and a 1st 2 years out treated as 3rd round same year pick (190) = 2720. Not a gross disparity value wise by the chart.


#7 (1500), #25 (720), #40 (500) and next year 1st/mid 2nd this year (420) = 3140.

Neither scenario is wildly outside the chart.
Click to expand...

Why would a 1st next year be treated as a mid-2nd round pick and why would a 1st in two years be treated as a mid-3rd? Sure it's not in the same draft, but it's still a 1st round pick. Why is the value of it significantly worse?

I will probably do a terrible job explaining my reasoning but here goes....


I agree that both picks have to be valued at assumed mid-round because there is no way to know where they fall. All we know is that they will fall IN the 1st round. So I valued both future 1st's with the same value as the #16 pick. That's mid-1st. I don't agree with the reasoning that you would value those future picks at a MUCH lesser value than what they will actually be worth just because they are 1 & 2 years down the road.

#6 (1600 pts), #39 (510 pts), 2013 1st (1000 pts), 2014 1st (1000 pts) = 4110 pts. The original #2 pick they traded for was worth just 2600 pts.

The Washington pick last year was #22 overall (780 pts) and the pick this year is in line right now to be #2 (2600 pts). That means the two future 1st round picks that you value at a meager 630 pts (420 + 190) actually end up being worth 3380 pts. You're valuing 2 future 1st round picks as just one #29 overall when in actuality they ended up with #22 AND #2.

In the end, Washington traded 2012 #6, 2012 #39, 2013 #22, and 2014 #2 (totaling 5490 points) for 2012 #2 (valued at 2600 points).
 
NCTexan said:
The trade value chart is off though because of the contracts under the new CBA. Unless a new one has come out? High picks are much more valuable now that they carry less risk.
Click to expand...

I mentioned the contract values in my post above .... and in another thread.

WolverineFan said:
Good point and I agree. I'm rarely the guy who pulls out the draft chart but I do think it's still the best barometer when looking at a huge trade like that one.

Basically my point is if you're waiting for that trade offer to come along then I hope you have someone in mind for that #1 pick because odds are you're going to be turning in that card before you get close to the offer that you want.
Click to expand...

Too many teams in need of a QB including ours .... Its a very good possibility one of those teams falls head over heels for Bridgewater and with Mariota going back to school the odds are greater this happens as well. I think this kinda inflates the value of the pick.
All it takes is one of those QB needy teams to say "I have to have him!" and they'll pony up.
Minny - Cleveland , Barffalo , NY Jets , Jax , Oakland , Tampa Bay , Arizona and maybe even the Tinbreds tho I cant see a deal with them. All it will take is one team .... and it probably wouldn't be all that difficult to get them to .... bid against themselves. Too many teams with poor QB play ,I just cant see one or more teams not interested.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JB
Corrosion said:
Too many teams in need of a QB including ours .... Its a very good possibility one of those teams falls head over heels for Bridgewater and with Mariota going back to school the odds are greater this happens as well. I think this kinda inflates the value of the pick.
All it takes is one of those QB needy teams to say "I have to have him!" and they'll pony up.
Minny - Cleveland , Barffalo , NY Jets , Jax , Oakland , Tampa Bay , Arizona and maybe even the Tinbreds tho I cant see a deal with them. All it will take is one team .... and it probably wouldn't be all that difficult to get them to .... bid against themselves. Too many teams with poor QB play ,I just cant see one or more teams not interested.
Click to expand...

I agree and you make solid points. And I'm not saying that we won't trade back. I'm just saying that the WAS/STL trade will not be replicated. They gave up a TON to move up.

We could still make out very well in a trade back scenario, but I was just giving fair warning to not get you hopes up of such a mega-deal going through. And you are completely right, maybe we could get 2-3 teams to bid against each other and play up the price. I still don't see it reaching that level though.

STL moved back 4 spots and got (2!) 1st round picks plus a 2nd. We could move back 5-6 spots and I'd be happy with just 1 future 1st and a 2nd. Maybe get a late round pick as a sweetner, but that's not a deal breaker. I'll throw a scenario at you....

Minnesota currently sits at #5. If they offered #5 , #37, and a 2015 1st for #1...would you take it? I would.
 
seems like #8 would be a natural fit maybe 3rd time is a charm :clown:

hot1_david_carr2.jpg
SCHAUB.PRESSER-306x203.jpg
img24219381.jpg

Seems like a morph between the two, could be dead solid perfect? :koolaid:
 
If the Texans draft Carr, I have an old jersey that will have Carr crossed off, Schaub crossed off, and Carr written in again. Just because.
 
WolverineFan said:
Why would a 1st next year be treated as a mid-2nd round pick and why would a 1st in two years be treated as a mid-3rd? Sure it's not in the same draft, but it's still a 1st round pick. Why is the value of it significantly worse?
Click to expand...

Two halves to the answer.

The rule of thumb on valuing future draft picks was made up by Jimmy Johnson and the other developers and early users of the chart. The principle is common sense, a 1st now is worth more than next year just like $5 would be. So you could haggle over how much but that's the rule of thumb.

Mid round was me simply because I think draft order on teams at the extremes in the draft order changes a lot year to year. So if I am evaluating #6 this year's future picks I am not going to assume they will be that high next year in considering the future picks. By the same token I wouldn't assume say last year's 32nd pick was going to stay there and would assume it moves toward the middle as well. Again you could haggle over how much but for ease today I put it right in the middle. It doesn't change things much if you move them to #12 instead of #16.
 
infantrycak said:
Two halves to the answer.

The rule of thumb on valuing future draft picks was made up by Jimmy Johnson and the other developers and early users of the chart. The principle is common sense, a 1st now is worth more than next year just like $5 would be. So you could haggle over how much but that's the rule of thumb.

Mid round was me simply because I think draft order on teams at the extremes in the draft order changes a lot year to year. So if I am evaluating #6 this year's future picks I am not going to assume they will be that high next year in considering the future picks. By the same token I wouldn't assume say last year's 32nd pick was going to stay there and would assume it moves toward the middle as well. Again you could haggle over how much but for ease today I put it right in the middle. It doesn't change things much if you move them to #12 instead of #16.
Click to expand...

Okay thanks for clarifying. Like I said in an earlier post, I'm not a huge fan of the value chart, but I do think it's useful when it comes to mega-deals such as this one because we really have no other tool to measure with.

Obviously I value future picks at a higher value than most people seem to. I will say though that the Rams basically traded Robert Griffin for Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Alec Ogletree, and whoever they draft with the Redskins pick this year (likely top 5). I won't say they won that trade. But I don't think they lost either. If they can turn that pick into a QB then I would consider then a clear winner.
 
(HD, Sports, 12/21/2013) ABC 2:30PM CDT

2013 Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans from Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas


Derek Carr, Marqise Lee look to impress NFL scouts in bowl
Carr has been nearly flawless this season. Even in Fresno State's lone defeat in 2013, a 62-52 loss at San Jose State that denied the Bulldogs a berth in a BCS bowl, Carr was 38 of 50 for 519 yards and six touchdowns. Carr's one interception came in the fourth quarter when the Fresno State defense had already allowed 59 points, the offense pressed into comeback mode.

That was the kind of production associated with Lee during his transcendent first two years at USC, keying its 10-win season in 2011 and setting several Pac-12 receiving records, earning unanimous All-America honors and winning the Biletnikoff Award last season. But injuries, inconsistent quarterback play and indefensible play-calling by former head coach Lane Kiffin have limited Lee to 673 yards, barely half of his freshman production and one-third of that from his sophomore campaign...
Click to expand...

a5w8r.AuSt.8.jpeg


Derek Carr's senior season about far more than football
Heather Carr looked her husband in the eyes. It was Aug. 6, and the couple's newborn son, Dallas, had just been taken by an ambulance to Valley Children's Hospital in Madera, Calif. Dallas, who was born only a few hours earlier, required emergency surgery to correct his twisted intestines, which threatened to cut off his blood flow.

The couple prayed together. Heather asked her husband the critical question: Is he going to make it?

"To have to answer that question to my wife was one of the hardest things I ever had to do, to hold back the tears, to hold back my human feelings," said Derek Carr. "I had to tell her, yes, he's going to make it."

Dallas made it through the operation. The Carrs breathed a momentary sigh of relief. But Derek's emotional year has far from slowed down...
Click to expand...

Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr can handle life's audibles
As a senior at Bakersfield Christian High, he was recruited by the likes of Alabama, Notre Dame, Louisiana State and USC, even though he had already announced his intention to follow his brother David up state Route 99 to Fresno State. He enrolled in college in the spring, at 17, skipping his final few months of high school in order to get an early start on his football career.

Carr played little his first two years, but that didn't stop him from living what he called the "college quarterback life."

At the height of his partying days, Carr met Heather Neel, a waitress at a BJ's Brewhouse about half a mile from campus. After working up the courage to ask her out, he spent their first date telling her what he was looking for in a wife.

Neel has said she wasn't turned off by Carr's arrogance, but, as a devout Christian, she couldn't handle his fast-lane lifestyle. So she told him to change or move on.

"Heather actually wrote me a letter and she said, 'You're not the person that I thought you were,'" Carr recalled. "I read that and I remember I stood up in front of my teammates and I told them, 'Hey, I've been telling you I'm a Christian and I've been living the party life and all that. And that's dead wrong.' And that's kind of when I got my thing right."

This season, Carr led the team's postgame prayer circle. And in place of goodbye, he now ends phone calls with a cheery "God bless."
...
Click to expand...
 
I don't see how the Texans could spin the PR nightmare once Carr started to struggle with consistency. It would make this franchise look so bad. It would be the worst risk they've ever made if they drafted Carr and tried to develop him. It would be asking for Karma. I don't think Mcnair would want to take that kind of risk after two failed regimes and the embarrassment of Carr and then Schaub's "pick 6" season.
 
Coachk said:
I coached 17 years and ran a scouting service for 5 years. I have to be perfectly honest when I say Blake Bortles is the only "elite" quarterback in this draft if he chooses to come out. http://youtu.be/ayD9_uCz4K0
Click to expand...
Ex NFL player and talent scout Bucky Brooks compares him to Nick Foles but likes his potential.

Film Room: UCF's fast-rising Blake Bortles not elite QB
By Bucky Brooks
NFL Media analyst
Published: Dec. 20, 2013 at 12:03 p.m. Updated: Dec. 20, 2013 at 01:01 p.m

Conclusion
Bortles is an intriguing quarterback prospect with the desirable physical dimensions and talent to be a coveted player in NFL draft rooms. He has improved steadily throughout his career, and notched a few distinguished wins that will lead some evaluators to see him as a franchise-caliber quarterback. However, I believe it is important to keep his value in perspective when comparing him to the recent classes of quarterbacks that have produced the likes of Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. While each of the aforementioned players has endured a varying degree of struggles in the NFL, there wasn't any doubt about their talent or dominance at the collegiate level. They stood out on game tape and looked like Day 1 NFL starters (most didn't expect Wilson to be the star he has become, but most believed he was a natural leader and exceptional talent despite his diminutive dimensions).

Looking at Bortles on tape, I simply don't get those feelings. I see a good player with a lot of upside, but I don't see a transcendent star that will significantly change the fortunes of a dismal franchise. Now, that doesn't mean he can't be an effective starter for a team, but I believe it will take him some time to develop into a solid player as a pro.

When a scout is placing a grade on a prospect, he must take that potential into account, and I can't place a top-10 grade on a quarterback that is good, not great, at this time. Bortles strikes me as a prospect comparable to Nick Foles coming out of college. While Foles has exceeded expectations to this point of his career, the jury is still out on whether he will truly become a franchise quarterback. That's how I see Bortles, which is why I would grade him as a borderline first-round prospect at this point. He can start and win games in the NFL, but he will need some time to develop in the right system to become an impact player as a pro.
Click to expand...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...room-fastrising-blake-bortles-a-bit-overhyped
 
He's not impressing me. He's making some tough throws but he's not taking over the game. It's clear his team is overmatched, but still.
 
He has arm strength but is highly inaccurate at 50% and 3.8 avg this game. A high first round should be carrying his team. All of you who bash McCarron should be moving this guy off your board. Kessler is the better QB today. I hope Cleveland is watching.
 
badboy said:
He has arm strength but is highly inaccurate at 50% and 3.8 avg this game. A high first round should be carrying his team. All of you who bash McCarron should be moving this guy off your board. Kessler is the better QB today. I hope Cleveland is watching.
Click to expand...

He had some swag until they hit him , then he came apart like a cheap rug .

ps ... I am biased against him and believe he'll be the sequel .
 
badboy said:
He has arm strength but is highly inaccurate at 50% and 3.8 avg this game. A high first round should be carrying his team. All of you who bash McCarron should be moving this guy off your board. Kessler is the better QB today. I hope Cleveland is watching.
Click to expand...

Put McCarron on this Fresno State team and tell me they still aren't getting blown out.

And no, I'm not a Derek Carr fan. Just tired of people bashing Carr/Fales/Bridgewater/Bortles/etc. for not carrying their mediocre teams 24/7 but praising AJ for not carrying his elite team 24/7.
 
Also watching bowl game. The announcers said OK if no pressure but if pressured he is no longer good. Well guess what he is playing in college against at best average talent. In the NFL he will feel the pressure and turn into I think something less than David Carr.

Of course we have Smith as our GM so I have no confidence in our draft.
 
WolverineFan said:
Put McCarron on this Fresno State team and tell me they still aren't getting blown out.

And no, I'm not a Derek Carr fan. Just tired of people bashing Carr/Fales/Bridgewater/Bortles/etc. for not carrying their mediocre teams 24/7 but praising AJ for not carrying his elite team 24/7.
Click to expand...
The point is if you criticize any player for anything, you should use equal critique of all players. Just because you think McCarron has not been asked to carry a team does not mean he cannot.
 
badboy said:
The point is if you criticize any player for anything, you should use equal critique of all players. Just because you think McCarron has not been asked to carry a team does not mean he cannot.
Click to expand...

Don't worry, they'd be worse off with McCarron. :)
 
As the other guy that 'experts' think will be a first round QB, thought I would bump this thread since TB, BB and JFF have active threads.

If we do trade down Carr will be in the mix somewhere.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top