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DW4 Traded to Cleveland

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sandman said:
In Context: The NFL requires a minimum of 1,500 Passing Attempts to be eligible for the passer rating stats.

Watson has 1,748 which puts him at #173 all-time in terms of pass attempts. Mahomes is 6 attempts ahead of him at #169. Both of them met the minimum threshold before the end of their third seasons as full time starters.

They have both thrown about 25% of the attempts as Rodgers and about 40% of the attempts as Wilson, the other two QB's on the list that have career ratings over 100, and about 17% of the career passing attempts as Brees and Brady.

Brees for his career was at 98.7 on 10,000+ attempts and had 10 seasons with a rating over 100.

Brady for his career is at 97.4 with 10,000+ attempts and had 8 seasons with a rating over 100.

Manning for his career was at 96.5 with 8300+ attempts and had 8 seasons with a rating over 100.

This is the definition of a meaningless statistic in terms of Watson being #2 all time. There is no way he deserves to be compared to these three after barely being above the minimum to qualify.
Click to expand...

This is an example of looking at stats and interpreting them for what they mean.

Small sample size vs Large sample size.

To put it another way: if you had a new vaccine and only tested it on…Nevermind.

Kidding. Kidding. The last one was a joke.
 
sandman said:
This is the definition of a meaningless statistic in terms of Watson being #2 all time. There is no way he deserves to be compared to these three after barely being above the minimum to qualify.
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Even in that context it’s pretty impressive, unless you’re telling me Marcus Mariotta & Jamies Winston are 3 & 4 on that list.
 
sandman said:
This is the definition of a meaningless statistic in terms of Watson being #2 all time. There is no way he deserves to be compared to these three after barely being above the minimum to qualify.
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Did you read my entire post? I said, specifically, that I did not consider Watson as the #2 QB of all time. What the statistic does show is that Watson is one of the most efficient and statistically successful QBs of his time. It reflects his accuracy, decision making, and overall ability. And the notion that Watson is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.

Edit: The notion that Watson's play on the field is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.
 
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Lucky said:
Did you read my entire post? I said, specifically, that I did not consider Watson as the #2 QB of all time. What the statistic does show is that Watson is one of the most efficient and statistically successful QBs of his time. It reflects his accuracy, decision making, and overall ability. And the notion that Watson is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.
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I don't recall saying you said he was the #2 QB of all time, but will apologize if I did. Everything I referenced was the #2 all time passer rating in the context of it being some point in the middle of last season was the first time Watson was eligible to part of the conversation. In other words, a limited (very limited in some cases) to other QB's in the top 5-10 all time in passer ratings. Aaron Rodgers is 0.9 behind Watson at #3 all time, and has 9 full seasons rated over 100 while Watson has two. So even a conversation around this very specific statistic requires longevity/consistency as context. After all, there are only three players in the history of the NFL that have thrown for more yards in a single season than Jameis Winston.
 
Lucky said:
Edit: The notion that Watson's play on the field is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.
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Agreed. My only condition is he would need a few more seasons with these same results to show he truly belonged in the conversation.
 
steelbtexan said:
Y'all know why thoughts on the 3rd string QB

Doesn't play a winning style of ball

Sandman's posts kinda prove that point.
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The only point I was trying to make is that three years and meeting the minimum threshold for eligibility is not as statistically significant as doing it for 8-10 years. It was in no way an attempt to say his three year run has not been a very, very good run.
 
steelbtexan said:
Just look at the record since he's been the starting QB.

Cousins ranked #6 is one example.
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I don't understand how a list of career high passer rating proves


steelbtexan said:
Doesn't play a winning style of ball

Sandman's posts kinda prove that point.
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Cousins being on that list doesn't prove that idea either. Aaron Rodgers & Russell Wilson are on that list. Do they play "a winning style of ball"?
 
thunderkyss said:
I don't understand how a list of career high passer rating proves




Cousins being on that list doesn't prove that idea either. Aaron Rodgers & Russell Wilson are on that list. Do they play "a winning style of ball"?
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It proves that numbers lie.

The 3rd string QB and winning brand of ball. LMAO

Comparing Rodgers and Wilson's careers to the Perverts? SMDH, they aren't even in the same stratosphere.
 
76Texan said:
FYI, Watson's WL record of 28-25 is identical to Peyton.

Same as Drew Brees (with Brees having a "redshirt year" to learn the rope in the NFL).

Aaron's record was slightly better, but he had had several years on the bench prior to starting.
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LMAO

Good thing is after this season this type of nonsense will be a thing of the past.

I'm sure you will be in mourning.
 
steelbtexan said:
LMAO

Good thing is after this season this type of nonsense will be a thing of the past.

I'm sure you will be in mourning.
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No, I just disagree with your take , which is not backed up by fact.
Watson is history to me.

BTW, Wilson also had the minimum of a top 5 running game in each of his first four years.
And Wilson was my guy.
 
Lucky said:
Did you read my entire post? I said, specifically, that I did not consider Watson as the #2 QB of all time. What the statistic does show is that Watson is one of the most efficient and statistically successful QBs of his time. It reflects his accuracy, decision making, and overall ability. And the notion that Watson is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.

Edit: The notion that Watson's play on the field is the direct opposite of successful QBs of the past is absurd.
Click to expand...

We've been thru this before .... and the statistics have shown that Watson is a big play or give the ball back to the opposition one way or another.

Teams figured out early in that second season how to defend him .... and he never adjusted , in fact he regressed. His refusal to take easy / short routes was the single biggest reason that offense stalled time and again.
It was shown to you on all-22 and other video dozens of times & got nothing but excuses.
Its the OLine , Its the play caller .... No , it was Watson. Big play or nothing.

You can put up all the statistics in the world .... and they don't mean jack. 4-12 Brian AFC Cellar Brian.
 
Corrosion said:
It just shows that statistics aren't the measure of a quarterback ....

Its all about the results , not the fantasy points.
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The results show that he was 28-25, exactly the same number as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

Manning had a long time NFL HC.

Brees had a year sitting on the bench and he had a more successful HC than that OB guy.
 
Corrosion said:
It just shows that statistics aren't the measure of a quarterback ....

Its all about the results , not the fantasy points.
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In fact, there weren't many great QBs that had had better results in their first 53 games.
And a few who did, either had spent more years in the NFL (backing up another QB), had a better-to-much better defense and/or running game to support them.
Not to mention the most important factor: the HC.

Favre, for example, had a slightly better results in win-loss, but he had better support.
And he threw a ton more of picks.
 
Corrosion said:
We've been thru this before .... and the statistics have shown that Watson is a big play or give the ball back to the opposition one way or another.

Teams figured out early in that second season how to defend him .... and he never adjusted , in fact he regressed. His refusal to take easy / short routes was the single biggest reason that offense stalled time and again.
It was shown to you on all-22 and other video dozens of times & got nothing but excuses.
Its the OLine , Its the play caller .... No , it was Watson. Big play or nothing.

You can put up all the statistics in the world .... and they don't mean jack. 4-12 Brian AFC Cellar Brian.
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Yeah, and you can say anything you want, but I would have to listen to Steve Young.
He's willing to trade three first round picks for Watson.
Really, all that I need to know.
 
sandman said:
True. But no one was touting Mahomes' all time passer rating.
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Okay, now I understand…..available stats can only be used when it fits the context of the narrative. Sort of like the gentleman’s unspoken rule of bunting or trying to steal a base when up by 15 runs.
 
sandman said:
The only point I was trying to make is that three years and meeting the minimum threshold for eligibility is not as statistically significant as doing it for 8-10 years. It was in no way an attempt to say his three year run has not been a very, very good run.
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If and when Watson is cleared to play in the NFL, lets say in 2022, are teams going to base their offer on the fact that he doesn’t have 8-10 years worth of stats under his belt or the potential he brings to the table at this time in his career?

Personally, I think it would be the later since most GM’s and coaches would agree that Watson did some pretty amazing things with a not so amazing organization during his 4 year run.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
If and when Watson is cleared to play in the NFL, lets say in 2022, are teams going to base their offer on the fact that he doesn’t have 8-10 years worth of stats under his belt or the potential he brings to the table at this time in his career?

Personally, I think it would be the later since most GM’s and coaches would agree that Watson did some pretty amazing things with a not so amazing organization during his 4 year run.
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What amazing things did he do?
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Okay, now I understand…..available stats can only be used when it fits the context of the narrative. Sort of like the gentleman’s unspoken rule of bunting or trying to steal a base when up by 15 runs.
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No, I'm just saying no one in this thread mentioned Mahomes in terms of his all-time passer rating. I was actually the one who brought him up in terms of also having just made the minimum requirement. I didn't bash Watson. In fact, I said in post #560 that he has had a very, very good 3-year run. I'm not sure what your point of contention is at this point.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
If and when Watson is cleared to play in the NFL, lets say in 2022, are teams going to base their offer on the fact that he doesn’t have 8-10 years worth of stats under his belt or the potential he brings to the table at this time in his career?

Personally, I think it would be the later since most GM’s and coaches would agree that Watson did some pretty amazing things with a not so amazing organization during his 4 year run.
Click to expand...

You are making an entirely different point than the guy who just became eligible after three years for an all-time stat having better numbers than guys who have been doing the same thing for much longer.

:uprights:
 
Corrosion said:
Teams figured out early in that second season how to defend him .... and he never adjusted , in fact he regressed. His refusal to take easy / short routes was the single biggest reason that offense stalled time and again.
Click to expand...

Still, many games are won that way. If we had a defense that only gave up 16 ppg, Watson would have looked like a hero in those games.

I almost get what you're saying, I think. But Watson is a good QB. Rivers in San Diego, or Stafford in Detroit kinda good, but good nonetheless.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Okay, now I understand…..available stats can only be used when it fits the context of the narrative. Sort of like the gentleman’s unspoken rule of bunting or trying to steal a base when up by 15 runs.
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Stats show him as what type of QB he is compared to other QBs.

W/L is a team stat.

I mean I could say, "Barry Sanders' style of play is not conducive to winning." & everyone would know I'm an id10t with an ax to grind.
 
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thunderkyss said:
Stats show him as what type of QB he is compared to other QBs.

W/L is a team stat.

I mean I could say, "Barry Sanders' style of play is not conducive to winning." & everyone would know I'm an id10t with an awesome to grind.
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Good point. Speaking of Sanders. I used to get into this argument with Cowboys fans about Emmitt Smith being much better than Sanders because of their running styles and W/L. They never understood if Sanders was running behind the Cowboys' OL, he would not have to evade so many defenders at the LOS and in the backfield. If Sanders was playing for Jimmy Johnson, with that OL and in that Norv Turner offense, his performance would be similar or better than Smith.

Coaching, surrounding talent and a team's ability to play complementary football contributes significantly to a QB's W/L record. If the QB is not a turnover machine and wins are based on his playing style, great QBs like Fouts, Marino, Moon, and Kelly would have won rings or Brees and Rodgers would have more rings than Joe Flacco, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson or Rich Gannon.

My point? We shouldn't be as obtuse as Cowboys' fans. Brett Favre threw over 300 INTs. Was his gun slinging style of play conducive to winning? Do you think Packers' fans would view his two Super Bowl wins as disappointing because his style of play was not conducive to winning three Super Bowls?
 
Corrosion said:
We've been thru this before .... and the statistics have shown that Watson is a big play or give the ball back to the opposition one way or another.

Teams figured out early in that second season how to defend him .... and he never adjusted , in fact he regressed. His refusal to take easy / short routes was the single biggest reason that offense stalled time and again.
It was shown to you on all-22 and other video dozens of times & got nothing but excuses.
Its the OLine , Its the play caller .... No , it was Watson. Big play or nothing.

You can put up all the statistics in the world .... and they don't mean jack. 4-12 Brian AFC Cellar Brian.
Click to expand...

The level of cognitive dissonance is astounding for some in here who tend to only think in terms of black and white. I expect this from Steelb..but you? c'mon.

I think with the new staff both in the FO and on the team...... & his numbers from last year..all of that both directly & indirectly prove that it actually was the o-line/HC/playcaller. Further, didn't he also lead the league in passing yards & set a franchise record for TD passes last year? Top 10 in TD passes? :thinking:, That don't look like "regression" to me. Further, you're a reasonably intelligent man about football. Pretty sure you can literally go to the tape of every qb who has ever played the game and point out instances where they missed a read or they didn't check it down or whatever when they should've. How i know this? b/c there isn't a single QB who has ever played this game for an extended amount of time who hasn't thrown an INT, taken a bad sack or held the ball too long or misread & been fooled by a defense from time to time. DW4 was no different. So to use that as your barometer for why he wasn't that good is borderline idiotic.

Just take your medicine & admit you've been wrong about him since 2017 and move on. I promise you being wrong don't taste that bad.
 
Corrosion said:
We've been thru this before .... and the statistics have shown that Watson is a big play or give the ball back to the opposition one way or another.

Teams figured out early in that second season how to defend him .... and he never adjusted , in fact he regressed. His refusal to take easy / short routes was the single biggest reason that offense stalled time and again.
It was shown to you on all-22 and other video dozens of times & got nothing but excuses.
Its the OLine , Its the play caller .... No , it was Watson. Big play or nothing.

You can put up all the statistics in the world .... and they don't mean jack. 4-12 Brian AFC Cellar Brian.
Click to expand...

It was also shown to you dozens of times on all-22 that the route tree was shit. Multiple receivers in the same area, no one in the middle of the field, leaving Watson with no choice but to wait until somebody downfield did something.

So, you see it how you want to see it I suppose, but when you ignore stuff like that, and the numbers he still puts up, in an offense with bad o-line play and no run game, so you can make it fit your argument, most people are going to see right through that bullshit.

Yeah, 4-12 was solely because of that bum ass QB. Bring back that 8-6 record, playoff game winning Brock Osweiler please.
 
Mr teX said:
The level of cognitive dissonance is astounding for some in here who tend to only think in terms of black and white. I expect this from Steelb..but you? c'mon.

I think with the new staff both in the FO and on the team...... & his numbers from last year..all of that both directly & indirectly prove that it actually was the o-line/HC/playcaller. Further, didn't he also lead the league in passing yards & set a franchise record for TD passes last year? Top 10 in TD passes? :thinking:, That don't look like "regression" to me. Further, you're a reasonably intelligent man about football. Pretty sure you can literally go to the tape of every qb who has ever played the game and point out instances where they missed a read or they didn't check it down or whatever when they should've. How i know this? b/c there isn't a single QB who has ever played this game for an extended amount of time who hasn't thrown an INT, taken a bad sack or held the ball too long or misread & been fooled by a defense from time to time. DW4 was no different. So to use that as your barometer for why he wasn't that good is borderline idiotic.

Just take your medicine & admit you've been wrong about him since 2017 and move on. I promise you being wrong don't taste that bad.
Click to expand...

I think he was referring to his second full season, not last season. in 2019 he had seven games with a rating at 81% or below, had four games where he threw 0 TD's (and didn't pass for over 185 yards in any of them despite throwing it 29,33,29,32 times) and had four multi-INT games. And that was when the team went 10-5 in his starts.

He is correct that the 2019 Watson did not have the same season as the 2018 Watson. And at times he was... not good. That being said, it is safe to say that he cleaned up a lot of that in the 2020 season: one game with 0 TD's, one game at 165 yards on 30 attempts, one multi-INT game.
 
sandman said:
I think he was referring to his second full season, not last season. in 2019 he had seven games with a rating at 81% or below, had four games where he threw 0 TD's (and didn't pass for over 185 yards in any of them despite throwing it 29,33,29,32 times) and had four multi-INT games. And that was when the team went 10-5 in his starts.

He is correct that the 2019 Watson did not have the same season as the 2018 Watson. And at times he was... not good. That being said, it is safe to say that he cleaned up a lot of that in the 2020 season: one game with 0 TD's, one game at 165 yards on 30 attempts, one multi-INT game.
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Well that's just it, cherry picking seasons to fit a narrative instead of looking at the whole picture is always a loosing argument.
 
Earl34 said:
Good point. Speaking of Sanders. I used to get into this argument with Cowboys fans about Emmitt Smith being much better than Sanders because of their running styles and W/L. They never understood if Sanders was running behind the Cowboys' OL, he would not have to evade so many defenders at the LOS and in the backfield. If Sanders was playing for Jimmy Johnson, with that OL and in that Norv Turner offense, his performance would be similar or better than Smith.

Coaching, surrounding talent and a team's ability to play complementary football contributes significantly to a QB's W/L record. If the QB is not a turnover machine and wins are based on his playing style, great QBs like Fouts, Marino, Moon, and Kelly would have won rings or Brees and Rodgers would have more rings than Joe Flacco, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson or Rich Gannon.

My point? We shouldn't be as obtuse as Cowboys' fans. Brett Favre threw over 300 INTs. Was his gun slinging style of play conducive to winning? Do you think Packers' fans would view his two Super Bowl wins as disappointing because his style of play was not conducive to winning three Super Bowls?
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I've had that same argument with Cowboy fans too.

Top dog take right here. Good stuff Earl.
 
Earl34 said:
Good point. Speaking of Sanders. I used to get into this argument with Cowboys fans about Emmitt Smith being much better than Sanders because of their running styles and W/L. They never understood if Sanders was running behind the Cowboys' OL, he would not have to evade so many defenders at the LOS and in the backfield. If Sanders was playing for Jimmy Johnson, with that OL and in that Norv Turner offense, his performance would be similar or better than Smith.

Coaching, surrounding talent and a team's ability to play complementary football contributes significantly to a QB's W/L record. If the QB is not a turnover machine and wins are based on his playing style, great QBs like Fouts, Marino, Moon, and Kelly would have won rings or Brees and Rodgers would have more rings than Joe Flacco, Mark Rypien, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson or Rich Gannon.

My point? We shouldn't be as obtuse as Cowboys' fans. Brett Favre threw over 300 INTs. Was his gun slinging style of play conducive to winning? Do you think Packers' fans would view his two Super Bowl wins as disappointing because his style of play was not conducive to winning three Super Bowls?
Click to expand...

Give me Emmitt everyday and twice on Sunday.

Better pass blocker/Receiver/Great short yd/Goal line runner. Locker room leader, Played hurt etc....

Yes Favre while a HOF'er greatly underperformed. Just like another HOF'er in Houston.
 
Mr teX said:
The level of cognitive dissonance is astounding for some in here who tend to only think in terms of black and white. I expect this from Steelb..but you? c'mon.

I think with the new staff both in the FO and on the team...... & his numbers from last year..all of that both directly & indirectly prove that it actually was the o-line/HC/playcaller. Further, didn't he also lead the league in passing yards & set a franchise record for TD passes last year? Top 10 in TD passes? :thinking:, That don't look like "regression" to me. Further, you're a reasonably intelligent man about football. Pretty sure you can literally go to the tape of every qb who has ever played the game and point out instances where they missed a read or they didn't check it down or whatever when they should've. How i know this? b/c there isn't a single QB who has ever played this game for an extended amount of time who hasn't thrown an INT, taken a bad sack or held the ball too long or misread & been fooled by a defense from time to time. DW4 was no different. So to use that as your barometer for why he wasn't that good is borderline idiotic.

Just take your medicine & admit you've been wrong about him since 2017 and move on. I promise you being wrong don't taste that bad.
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Cognitive ignorance? 4-12 during his best statistical season. Says he was always more about stats/highlights etc....

Just because I disagree with you and think he will never win a championship because he's a selfish player (This extends to his personal life too) doesn't mean I'm ignorant. In fact he's a dumb player and dumb players rarely win championships. You know whoelse was a dumb player who should've won more championships than he did based on his ability? (Favre)
 
Mr teX said:
The level of cognitive dissonance is astounding for some in here who tend to only think in terms of black and white. I expect this from Steelb..but you? c'mon.

I think with the new staff both in the FO and on the team...... & his numbers from last year..all of that both directly & indirectly prove that it actually was the o-line/HC/playcaller. Further, didn't he also lead the league in passing yards & set a franchise record for TD passes last year? Top 10 in TD passes? :thinking:, That don't look like "regression" to me. Further, you're a reasonably intelligent man about football. Pretty sure you can literally go to the tape of every qb who has ever played the game and point out instances where they missed a read or they didn't check it down or whatever when they should've. How i know this? b/c there isn't a single QB who has ever played this game for an extended amount of time who hasn't thrown an INT, taken a bad sack or held the ball too long or misread & been fooled by a defense from time to time. DW4 was no different. So to use that as your barometer for why he wasn't that good is borderline idiotic.

Just take your medicine & admit you've been wrong about him since 2017 and move on. I promise you being wrong don't taste that bad.
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Speedy said:
It was also shown to you dozens of times on all-22 that the route tree was shit. Multiple receivers in the same area, no one in the middle of the field, leaving Watson with no choice but to wait until somebody downfield did something.

So, you see it how you want to see it I suppose, but when you ignore stuff like that, and the numbers he still puts up, in an offense with bad o-line play and no run game, so you can make it fit your argument, most people are going to see right through that bullshit.

Yeah, 4-12 was solely because of that bum ass QB. Bring back that 8-6 record, playoff game winning Brock Osweiler please.
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I guess we'll have to wait and see who's right and who's wrong - assuming he plays another down in the NFL ....

I'll go so far as to state he'll never reach a conference title game much less win a Lombardi - Unless a coach can reach him and get him to get the ball out much faster on a routine basis and pick when to take those deeper shots.
 
Corrosion said:
I guess we'll have to wait and see who's right and who's wrong - assuming he plays another down in the NFL ....

I'll go so far as to state he'll never reach a conference title game much less win a Lombardi - Unless a coach can reach him and get him to get the ball out much faster on a routine basis and pick when to take those deeper shots.
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Nah, no need to wait. You're wrong.
 
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