klockWork
Rookie
OK let's pass on Clowney and if he falls to the 3rd round then we KNOW that's our guy.
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Clowney, then what?
- Thread starter thunderkyss
- Start date
OK let's pass on Clowney and if he falls to the 3rd round then we KNOW that's our guy.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
How long did it take SEA to build that defense by the way?
So if Clowney is the pick, maybe by 2017 the Texans can finally compete.
So if Clowney is the pick, maybe by 2017 the Texans can finally compete.
This whole you have to take a QB first no matter what is nonsense.
This really is simple. If Obrian feels there is a franchise QB he should take him. If he feels the grade on his top QB choice is even close to Clowney he should take the QB. If he feels there isn't a huge difference in the top QB and the next tier group of QB's he should take Clowney.
Where each position is drafted doesn't mean squat in the big picture. The only thing that matters is that you get the most you can out of every pick. You have to stick to your board and make an educated decision based on grade, position and need. Then there are other factors to consider like depth of each position. If there is a deep position like the WR's this year you can pass on a higher rated WR and take a lower graded player in a position that isn't deep. If you second highest graded player is close to the highest graded player and plays a more important position or plays a position of need, then you take him. It's really not that complicated.
This really is simple. If Obrian feels there is a franchise QB he should take him. If he feels the grade on his top QB choice is even close to Clowney he should take the QB. If he feels there isn't a huge difference in the top QB and the next tier group of QB's he should take Clowney.
Where each position is drafted doesn't mean squat in the big picture. The only thing that matters is that you get the most you can out of every pick. You have to stick to your board and make an educated decision based on grade, position and need. Then there are other factors to consider like depth of each position. If there is a deep position like the WR's this year you can pass on a higher rated WR and take a lower graded player in a position that isn't deep. If you second highest graded player is close to the highest graded player and plays a more important position or plays a position of need, then you take him. It's really not that complicated.
And their offense was built on a third-round pick, so where does that leave us ?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
No, their offense was built (unintentionally) around a 3rd round QB with 3 1sts and 4 2nds.
Look, Clowney is off the board for me anywhere but after the bottom of the 1st or later because of injury concerns. Effectively that means Clowney doesn't exist for me. As a theoretical matter though postion does factor into consideration and a QB as an individual has more influence on a team than any other position. That does not mean (mussop this is for you) QB no matter what. Think of it more like an extra 5 points on the scale.
[IMGwidthsize=250]http://25.media.tumblr.com/dfdba49fac32edc2f6971e5a027ac519/tumblr_mqwpi9rb891ryxxyvo1_250.gif[/IMG]
Regardless of who the 1st pick is, this is a 3 yr rebuild. IMHO
Do you think the Texans are going to be contending for a SB by 2016-2017 season if TB is the pick? If so then we will have to agree to disagree.
BTW, I'm good with the state of the Texans defense/team is as good as Seahawks defense/team by 2017. I really don't think it will take that long. Check out my post in the ideal scenario thread.
Watt/Cushing/Clowney/KJ/JoJo/Swearinger/Reed at ILB/Drafted NT is a great place to start. That's 8 by my count. Add Orakpo in FA and that's 9.
They would certainly be able to draft a S/Nickel CB that can play in rds 4/7. Especially with 3 compensation picks in rds 5-7.
JCTexan
Hall of Fame
Agreed. Nice post.
It depends on how good Bridgewater is. If he becomes Russell Wilson good then I think the Texans will at least be playoff contenders by that time.
That same question back at you: Do you think the Texans are going to be contending for a SB by 2016-2017 if Clowney is the pick and the QB position isn't resolved? If so then we will agree to disagree.
They do have to resolve the QB position. I think they can do that by 1. Drafting Brett Smith in late Rd.2/Early Rd.3. Or trading 3-1 for Mallett.
So then with the right supporting cast, looks like you think an offense can succeed with a mid-round QB, huh ? I agree with your thinking on this, and that's good news because we've already got an offense with 3 first rounders, so we just add a few more pieces along with using a mid-round pick for our QB and voila, we've still got the top pick available for Clowney.
But we can still wait until the third round to get one, right ?
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I think it takes a fool to gamble the franchise on the chance that 20% of the time the QB can work out, but yes the 20% does happen. You will note the teams where the 20% worked out were NOT making that gamble (except arguably Brees).
We are not in the position presented last year when it was questionable whether ANY QB was worthy of a 1st round grade.
So lets just take the 8-15th best player because they need a QB. Yeah that makes great sense. Reeks of Carr/Peppers all over again. People never learn.
Keep on bringin those stats though.
Keep on bringin those stats though.
Several years ago Detroit drafted Matt Stafford with their top pick and now some, maybe more than some, are second-guessing that decision. Well I'm not because even if Stafford has been very inconsistent and made quite a few bad decisions and been somewhat of a disappointment, they drafted him #1 overall because of one thing: his arm. And I think a team makes that choice every time if they've got the top pick and they need a QB. Problem for the Texans just like it was a problem for the Chiefs last year is that that big arm is not in this years Draft just like it wasn't in the 2013 Draft.
And percentages don't mean much for a single year because they are based on calculations for a long period of time. Statisticians know this, so for example lets just say that there's a 50% chance the#1 overall pick with a QB taken ends up being a "franchise QB". Those stats may be true over the 15 or 20 years, but that stat is absolutely meaningless this year or just in 2015, or just in 2016. So in a way stats aren't too helpful when it's a year without an Andrew Luck or even a Matthew Stafford.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
If folks were talking about drafting Derek Carr at 1.1 because there was no Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel you would have a point. As it is, you don't.
This isn't anything close to last year's draft as much as steelb may want to say it is. You're out in left field on this one. Arm wasn't the issue (EJ Manuel was consistently described as big or powerful armed) - talent was. And hilarious for you to take an aberration year like 2013 and follow it with a slam on stats not looking at a single season. The NFL builds those observations on quality each year into where players are drafted hence only 1 QB per round in the first 3 rounds last year with none in the top half of the 1st.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Steelbluetexans also wants to compare an expansion team in 02 to a team off consecutive double digit wins. I didn't think carr should've been drafted 1st,but that not what doomed the franchise early. Not taking portis,not taking anquan with aj the next yr,gambling on boselli, etc. Not to mention the rookie wage scale would kill a team if they missed. If bradford was a yr late,he would be on another team. Gabbert is gonna beon another team,but he's not the only misses that set them back.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
I may be solo, but it isn't an insane train. Only time and running out of excuses will tell. There is a small possibility that I am wrong, but it's there.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
How true.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Which was a mistake. Even if you draft a QB, you need his HEAD as much as his ARM! It's the thing which makes TB my favorite QB, but not my choice for 1-1.
Seems reasonable to me,
Mettenberger has the arm and is from a family of engineers. Mallett = Arm, family of teachers and performed well at the Gruden QB camp breaking down defenses.
Both of these guys have the Arm/Brains.
Stafford didn't have just a strong arm, he had a strong enough arm to make all of the throws plus he delivered them with consistent accuracy and I don't recall any issues about the mental part of his game or his personal life coming out of college, perhaps you do ?
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Again, how exactly is the team going to pay both Watt and Clowney in 3-4 years? Is it really that sensical to commit 150M-200M of salary on 2 players?
(this of course taking into consideration that Clowney is this HOF player that most of you are making him out to be)
(this of course taking into consideration that Clowney is this HOF player that most of you are making him out to be)
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
The number of QB alternatives with none distancing themselves is why I like the trade down scenario. But you have to have someone who disagrees in order to find a trade partner. They have to see separation that I don't see.
bhsman
Rookie
1) You don't make draft decisions based on how much it will cost to resign them in 4-5 years
2) If Teddy becomes an elite, top 3-7 QB (or higher once the big three of Brady-Brees-Manning retire), how would his salary not become a problem? Short of taking a punter first overall, you're gonna need to pay any successful former 1-1s.
3) If Clowney becomes a player worthy of a big contract after being draft...him reaching his potential would be the best thing that could ever happen with a first overall pick.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
I made no statement concerning Stafford except that I rejected the notion that your ONE REASON Stafford was selected was his arm was either foolish or incomplete. If you say incomplete, then I'll go along with you.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Salary.Cap.
You dont tie up that much money on the defensive line. I'm not even bringing up Bridgewater in this thread, but since you mention it a QB that is elite is worth 10x what a dominant defensive player is.
Marshall
Not pretty, but ALIVE!
So by that logic we shouldn't sign a 1-1 QB because it would destroy our salary cap in the future?
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
No, you're not comprehending. If you have a top flight QB then you can go over the salary cap without a problem because the most presssing position is addressed. If you are killing the cap with 2 defensive linemen and are struggling to fill out the roster and still dont have your QB situation answered is a recipe for disaster.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
He's saying it makes sense to pay a top QB and a top DE. It does not make sense to pay 2 top DE.
Considering how important the QB position is , I'd argue that an 85-87 QB is more valuable than a 95 at just about any other position , including DE. You can scheme to nullify him , or simply run away from him .... Same for a DB or LBer. WR you double team .... OL you attack elsewhere.
Clowney's statistics this season are a very good example of scheming to take away a guy - 3.5 sacks. Teams nullified him in general.
Its really difficult to scheme to hide a weak QB or stop a top tier QB. Both require a team effort with multiple moving parts.
The Texans are a perfect example of not being able to hide poor QB play .... 2-14.
Question for me is still the same - Is there a QB in this draft that grades out that well.
If there is , I take that QB. If there isn't , I take the highest rated player (That wouldn't be Clowney either).
Considering how important the QB position is , I'd argue that an 85-87 QB is more valuable than a 95 at just about any other position , including DE. You can scheme to nullify him , or simply run away from him .... Same for a DB or LBer. WR you double team .... OL you attack elsewhere.
Clowney's statistics this season are a very good example of scheming to take away a guy - 3.5 sacks. Teams nullified him in general.
Its really difficult to scheme to hide a weak QB or stop a top tier QB. Both require a team effort with multiple moving parts.
The Texans are a perfect example of not being able to hide poor QB play .... 2-14.
Question for me is still the same - Is there a QB in this draft that grades out that well.
Obviously Clowney is my #1 guy.
UR saying you cant pay Watt/Clowney and get a QB is just making excuses to pick TB. How were the Colts able to pay Freeny/Mathis and Payton. The Pats all of their stars. Saints etc.... you can pay 5 guys top or near top $$$$$. But you have to do a great job drafting to replace valuable mid tier guys EVERY yr. Back on topic.
Tell me what do you consider to be the biggest difference between the top3and Smith/Murray/McCarron/Mettenberger and is the risk worth spending 1-1?
bhsman
Rookie
That's not a recipe for postseason, success, though. Hell, it's very rare to win a superbowl after your young, talented players have finished their initial contracts and some inevitably have to leave - see Baltimore and Seattle, respectively
So my point stands: if your sole reason for not taking a player - especially if he's a consensus #1-2 prospect - is concerns about his contract, then there's no reason not to take them.
Obviously he's got physical talents ... but they haven't really translated into results. Is he a workout warrior and not much more ? Then you have the character & work ethic issues and finally his health.
I cant have a guy with that many questions at the top of my draft board , despite his physical gifts.
.
Not at all what Im saying. Yeah , you could probably fit Watt , Clowney , a QB and two more high priced guy's under the cap - pending you fill out the rest of that roster with draft picks you nailed in the middle rounds and value FA's.
Cap space has nothing to do with my point here tho.
My point is about the overall value of the players impact upon each game.
A QB who grades out a 85-90 is going to have a much greater impact upon each game than a player rated 95+ at any other position on the field as he has the ball in his hands on every offensive snap.
That defensive player can be neutralized by schemes or simply avoiding plays directly at him. You simply cant say that about a QB because you cant keep the ball out of his hands. You cant hide an inadequate one either.
I cant separate Bortles & the field .... I think he's pretty close to the rest of them both physically and mentally.
But .... TB & Manziel both have special abilities that those others just don't have or haven't shown us.
For TB its accuracy and his pocket presence. There isn't a QB in this draft that maneuvers within the pocket like Bridgewater and in the NFL , that's where most of the QB's impact comes from - plays in the pocket.
For Manziel , he's a game breaker once that pocket breaks down. Teams have schemed to stop him & he still put up video game type numbers against the best competition.
Those two have everything the field has plus .... a little something extra.
IMO either of those players because of the importance of the position and their abilities would have a greater impact on the results week in and week out than would a defensive player.
10.5 while being the guy opposing offenses schemed to avoid .... in the NFL , the best players and coaches on the planet.
Clowney being that guy schemed for against lesser competition .... 3.5 sacks.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
4.5 in college over 2 years. All in one year and not his senior.
His first year in college he was listed as a TE.
(I did not know that^^)
Bottom line is that as great as JJ Watt is , he doesn't have as big an impact upon the teams record as the guy playing QB.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
What it tells you is that you know nothing about a player from their college stats (or career to a degree).
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Watt wasn't drafted to be a pass rusher.
Pass rush is Clowney's defining characteristic (which isn't saying he is bad against the run, but that isn't what has had people hyped on him).
The thought of drafting Clowney, signing Orakpo in FA, moving reed to the middle and drafting Ellis/Allen in the 4th rd is very appealing to me. That would be the best font 7 in Texans history.
Then drafting Smith after trading down and getting more picks. Plus drafting James/Bitonio in the 3rd and signing Cassel in FA.
Yep that's an offseason I could live with. If you love JM at1-1 you should love Smith in the middle of the 2nd rd.
Then drafting Smith after trading down and getting more picks. Plus drafting James/Bitonio in the 3rd and signing Cassel in FA.
Yep that's an offseason I could live with. If you love JM at1-1 you should love Smith in the middle of the 2nd rd.
I really like Brett Smith .... but I don't think he's close to Manziel or Bridgewater in terms of immediate impact talent. He's a guy I'd have sit behind <insert veteran QB here> for a season or two.
The thinking by McNair that this is a quick fix , its either one of those top two or .... a veteran FA at QB , and when I look at the list of FA's at the position , I wish I hadn't. Best available ? Probably Michael Vick.
Honestly , I wouldn't be against taking two QB's , one early and another in round 5 and beyond , as a project / backup plan. I think you can get Smith in the 5th.
Im working on a several mocks , one with Clowney #1 , Matthews #1 , the last with <insert QB here> #1. Its really interesting how my draft plans change with the different positions.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
What if you have two? Watt on one side Clowney on the other? Where do you go then?
The rams have quinn,long,and brockers on the same dl, how many ppg did they give up and how many wins did they have?
Conversly, the panthers had 2 3rd rd de's and 2 1st rd lb with a 2 rookie dts and were one of the best defenses in nfl.They were top last yr,but made the jump in wins because of the qb. Cardinals have one of the defenses and the have 1 1st rd pick in the front 7.
The buddy ryan eagles had one of the best front 4s in the history of football and they couldn't even win a playoff game. What I'm trying to say is there are a lot of way to have a top flight defense. Seattle and Arizona uses their back 7 to set up the front. Carolina,SF,and Cincy uses the front 7 to setup the back. It just depends on your players. Pressure leads to picks,coverage leads to sacks. The bills had almost 60 sacks this,but how many ppg did they give up?
Clowney can be the 2nd coming,but if the lbs can't close the windows,something seattle,car,ariz,and sf does well,then teams wil just quick slant and shallow cross you to death. The pass rush, no matter how great its supposed to be can't get there.
Hey, that's what I'm talking about mussop !What if you have two? Watt on one side Clowney on the other? Where do you go then?
And we've got atleast one poster on this board who thinks we can wait to as late as the third round to get our QB, so who's to say we can't have our cake and eat it to ?
bah007
Hall of Fame
Are you talking about Watt here or am I lost in the conversation?
2007 - TE at Central Michigan. 8 receptions for 77 yards. The coach that recruited him (Brian Kelly) left for Cincinnati before Watt's freshman year and Watt didn't like the offense so he transferred to Wisconsin as a walk on.
2008 - Redshirted
2009 - Now a RS SO, 44 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 5 passes defended, 1 blocked kick.
2010 - RS JR, 62 tackles, 21 TFL, 7 sacks, 9 passes defended, 1 INT, 3 forced fumbles, 3 blocked kicks. He also won the Lott trophy which goes to the Defensive IMPACT player of the year. IMPACT stands for: Integrity, Maturity, Performance, Academics, Community, and Tenacity. The award recognizes character as well as athletic excellence. Demeco Ryans won it in 2005.
The point remains that he was not drafted to be a primary pass rusher. But he was no slouch in college, especially since Wisconsin used him a lot as a DT in four man fronts.
I think we are left to speculate what the Texans'/Wade's intentions were for JJ when they drafted him since in 2011 when he was drafted it was also the DCs first year in Houston. I'm thinking that it wasn't until JJ got to TC that Wade started to really recognize the talent they had. Or on the other hand, maybe Wade spotted JJ's pass-rushing skills even before the 2011 Draft in scouting and film-study, who's to know but Wade himself ?
MistaRed
Rookie
Won't Orakpo command a lot if money on the FA market? I'd love to see him as a Texan but due to our cap situation I'm having a hard time seeing it.
After thinking about it, I would sign Vick and draft Smith. Kinda like what Reid did with Vick/Foles. If BoB's in a win now mode then Vick is the best option, followed by trade for Mallett.
If you cut Schaub/OD/Manning you can easily fit Orakpo under the cap and still sign a vet QB. With the new Thursday night TV deal 5 mil will be added to each teams cap in 2015 so there should be plenty of room if you structure the contract the right way. (I doubt Rick/Olson can do this)
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Yes, Watt.
Obviously I went to an college football reference sight that was. It up to date.
Thanks for the fix.