Caveat: all the data (combine) is not in. If the combine changes things then so will (happily, as I bleed burnt orange) my opinion.
Sorry for the length.
I don't understand the Bush v. VY debate. VY is not even considered top 5 material on many boards. Some boards have him anywhere from 7-15. Certainly he is not top two on anyones board except for those who think Carr sucks. Perhaps Carr does suck, but that would still not make it a responsible business decision, again at this time, to take VY with the #1 overall. Now, if we know Carr sucks (which we don't, come on, do you really think you know better than actual NFL coaches?), we could trade down a few spots, pick-up a bunch of picks in the deal and then get VY, then by all means consider it. But if you are going to stay at #1 VY is not a responsible pick. It is a reach and a terible gamble for a franchise who needs to get the closest thing to a sure thing in the draft, we need help, not potential. Never complain to anyone about Cassrely's gambles in the 2nd and 3rd rounds if you want VY with the #1. He is not as good of a prospect to NFL scouts as Bush OR Leinert, and I suspect those scouts and coaches know just a little more about football than you.
I agree that he has the most upside pontential of any QB I've seen coming out of the draft, maybe ever, but his bust potential is just as high. Higher, imho, than anyone in the top 15. In addition to the questions surrounding *every* QB entry, VY has issues surrounding his release, accuracy, arm strength, footwork, and the fact that he played in one of the simplest systems in college football behind one of the best o-line units. Can he handle the complexity of the NFL? Can he play his position with 1-3 less seconds to make his decision every time? *You don't know*. No one does. No one ever does. Also consider this. Most of VY's rushing yards came on that *simple* zone read play Texas ran ad nauseum, albeit to great effect, but would you really *want* him running all the time in the NFL? Injuries anyone? Why do you think every QB, even Vick, is taught to slide and run out of bounds?
The Question you have to ask yourself is whether or not he is the best prospect to be a dominating *pocket passer* in the NFL? The rest is gravy, if the rest is not gravy then you are gambling your entire season on every play you design for him to run. If the answer to the above question is maybe, but Leinert has a better chance of doing that, then what are we even discussing here? If you want a QB change you should want the most NFL ready prospect out there. Or do you want some kid who is a hometown hero who, like all rookie QB's, has a small chance to light it up from the get-go but realistically will ride the pine till Carr's contract is up, create a huge QB controversy in the mean time in the media and possibly within the locker room? Yummy, I can't wait to draft Vince.
Prior to the combine data the writing is on the wall, no matter how hard you bang your head against it. We will select Bush, we will not pass go or collect two hundred dollars. Either that or we will trade down for O-line or defense plus picks. There is a slim possibility that we will trade down for VY, assuming he doesn't increase his stock at the combine, but I wouldn't bet on it. Truth is, we don't know what we have in Carr. I am of the opinion that he can be a solid performer who shows spectacular from time to time, a notch above Dilfer. That is enough to keep him and draft at a position of greater need. That is how NFL teams do it.
Bush scares the heck out of every NFL D-coordinator, his first day, at 4(!) positions; RB, slot, wide, and PR. He just has too much speed, grace, cut-back ability and vision for teams to take him lightly no matter where he lines up. In addition he can run a screen, reverse, shovel pass, etc. from any of those positions, adding an additional layer of unpredictability and deception that we have never had. He is a game plan changer and a game breaker. DD actually gives the opponent a game plan, every team knows his outside potential is 40 not 100. That is not to diminish him, he is a chain mover, and thus valuable, but he is not a game breaker. Bush can go 100 on any play if the D makes one mistake and everyone in the league knows it, that is why he is viewed universally as the top prospect in the draft.
With Bush lined up as a reciever with AJ opposite and (hopefully) Mathis, you simply cannot blitz DB's. If you blitz a linebacker, allowing him to cross and catch in stride, you will hear a collective gasp from the crowd. If you let any of those guys behind you it is six. That is playing with live fire, facing one very sub 4.4 guy (who happens to be a physical beast) and two sub 4.3 guys, forget about it. If you line him up in the back field, his afore mentioned skills force DE's to play contain at the edges, respecting his ability to cut back and go the distance. They *cannot* affoard to gamble and crash in on Carr, nor can they gamble and rush upfield to get to Carr from the rear of the pocket, even on passing downs. Not when you have a running / screen / shovel-pass threat that can go 100 with the tiniest slip-up of any part of the defensive unit.
If you line him up in the backfield DT's and LB's and DE's will, again, have to respect his ability to go the distance and stay at home, maintain gap integrity, and NEVER over-pursue. Bush alone makes a huge impact on our pass protection problems. Last year teams did not have to play honest with us. With the addition of the speed and open field running ability of Bush, now they do. No more doubling AJ and sending the world. No more siting back, lazily in cover two or three and daring DD to beat them with short runs and catches while sending the world at Carr. Now they have to account for at least two game breakers (possibly three, if Mathis matures into his potential), and that takes the gamble out of a front seven and puts intense pressure on DB's.
If we pick up a mauler interior o-lineman with the first pick of the second (and there will be some there this year) and a respectable TE in the third or FA or Joppru finally pans out, our pass protection problems will be over. The trip to the candy store in Houston just got cancelled. I think there will be good value for TE's in the third, especially with the #1 pick of that round. I think Klopfenstein will be available, likewise David Thomas and Dominique Byrd. Poof, our offense is fixed unless Carr really does suck and in that case we will have another high pick next year to replace him. But we can't make that determination now. I am not a Carr apologist, he has sucked, period. However I am a realist and I know that if he has only one weapon that scares anybody (AJ), and that weapon can be neutralized simply (which, unfortunalely, to this point is the reality), *and* he plays behind a LITERALLY historically bad pass protecting offensive line, we just don't have the data necessary to judge him fully. Give him what every winning QB in the league has; weapons, time and NFL level coaching (I can't believe I had to add that last one), then make a final pronouncement.
We will have to address D next year. Or perhaps a key FA acquisition or two will do some good. I think that we most need a free safety and an interior linebacker if we stay 3-4, if we go 4-3 we most need a free safety and probably a DE. I think Babin can play at 285 and hold down one end position, albeit probably not spectacularly, but you have to pick your battles, no?
