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Are CJ Stroud doubters converted or are there still doubters left?

How do you feel about Stroud now?

  • I was skeptical and am still skeptical

    Votes: 2 2.9%
  • I was skeptical and now believe we have our franchise QB

    Votes: 24 34.3%
  • I was optimistic and now believe we have our franchise QB

    Votes: 44 62.9%

  • Total voters
    70
I get the point you are trying to make with % of salary cap eaten up by a QB means the team has less talent around him. But in my opinion, that is using data to back into a position. In other words, correlation does not equal causation. This was the same argument with Bryce Young. No QB his size has ever won the Super Bowl so therefore guys his size cannot win the Super Bowl.

In reality, no one is making a moneyball level trade of a Mahomes level QB after 7 years exclusively because they exceed a % of the salary cap.
You should go back to 1994 and look at history with QB's and cap space.

Agreed it will never happen, but if owners were smart it would happen. The reason ownership won't do it is because of marketing reasons


Look at the Packers as an example, do you think they're happy they moved on to Love instead of having to deal with Rodgers cap busting deal. Remember Rodgers was the league MVP three years ago.
 
Every 7 yrs you sould trade your QB and if you're smart like the Packers you draft your QB of the future a couple of yrs before you’re ready to move on from your starting QB.
Gonna pile on here but this is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve heard online regarding football.

You should be looking to move on from guys like Dak, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, etc. Not the Josh Allen’s, Burrow’s, and Mahomes’ of the world.

Idk how you can watch all these teams stuck in QB purgatory and say “yeah I’d like to join them” Lmfaoo
 
Gonna pile on here but this is one of the more ridiculous things I’ve heard online regarding football.

You should be looking to move on from guys like Dak, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, etc. Not the Josh Allen’s, Burrow’s, and Mahomes’ of the world.

Idk how you can watch all these teams stuck in QB purgatory and say “yeah I’d like to join them” Lmfaoo
L9k at QB's and the cap since 1994..
 
That's the hardest I've laughed on here in a long time. The Packers were drafting the replacement of franchise QBs who were thinking about retirement. They got extremely lucky that Rodgers' slid in the draft. Jordan Love had a very good season last year. Maybe they caught lightning in a bottle again.
Or maybe they plan ahead better than most orgs do.
 
Or maybe they plan ahead better than most orgs do.
They chose to spend three decades with the same two QB's. In the last 20 drafts, not counting Rodgers and Love, they only drafted one QB higher than the 4th round and they were a bust. They drafted seven QB's in Rounds 5-7.

Not sure how you can call that planning ahead when only twice in 30 years they made a legitimate effort to plan for the QB position, and their current starters were 15 years into their careers.

But I agree with how they did it. No need to look for a Stroud replacement until 2035 at the earliest.
 
L9k at QB's and the cap since 1994..
Mahomes just won one making 17%, Stafford just won one making 11% but that’s just because they back loaded the contract. You can work the numbers on a QB’s contract to give yourself years like that even if it isn’t every year.

You keep bringing that up but never bring up the hit rate of drafting QB’s which is abysmal. Maybe a 33% hit rate on first round QB’s? Then you’ve gotta remember that you don’t get to repeat drafting a guy every year. You’ve gotta give the guy you just drafted a few years to prove himself so you really only get to repeat every 2-3 years. Add all that up and it will likely be 10-20 years of bad to mediocre QB play before you open up the next window.

Idk how you could look at that process and not see the silliness.
 
So their plan was for Rodgers to mysteriously slip in the draft all the way to 1.24 and to draft his successor at 1.26 15 years later? So Green Bay can manipulate the draft to their advantage?
They manipulated the draft, ignored the Kyle Boller and Joey Harrington comparisons, drafted him, knew he would be open to changing his mechanics and then kept Favre around for a couple more seasons so they could rework his mechanics. I wish these planners were around to plan the roads and highways around Houston.

 
What has he said?
The only thing I could find is he has been engaged in some friendly trash talking with Zaire Franklin of the Colts and Micah Parsons. I might be missing something but if what saw and read is all there is to it, I'm not concerned.


I'm confident that if Stroud steps out of line, DM will reel him back in.
 
So their plan was for Rodgers to mysteriously slip in the draft all the way to 1.24 and to draft his successor at 1.26 15 years later? So Green Bay can manipulate the draft to their advantage?
I'm pretty sure the Packers are happy with Love.

All I'm saying is I would follow the Packers model on steroids. 1st chance I got to draft a QB after 5 years of Stroud I would do it and after 7 years I would trade Stroud for a kings ransom. This is essentially what they did with Derrick and the Texans org is better off for things turning out the way they did.

Caserio/Ryans basically have a six year window to win a championship. Fortunately Caserio and Ryans understand this.
 
Mahomes just won one making 17%, Stafford just won one making 11% but that’s just because they back loaded the contract. You can work the numbers on a QB’s contract to give yourself years like that even if it isn’t every year.

You keep bringing that up but never bring up the hit rate of drafting QB’s which is abysmal. Maybe a 33% hit rate on first round QB’s? Then you’ve gotta remember that you don’t get to repeat drafting a guy every year. You’ve gotta give the guy you just drafted a few years to prove himself so you really only get to repeat every 2-3 years. Add all that up and it will likely be 10-20 years of bad to mediocre QB play before you open up the next window.

Idk how you could look at that process and not see the silliness.
Okay you set the number at 17,% after that you aren't going to win a championship. So more than that and you're wasting time. You can choose to live in in fear or you can be a risk taker. I'm a risk taker knowing that anything above 17% means I'm most likely not going to win a championship. But hey, I'm wired.differently than most folks.
 
I'm pretty sure the Packers are happy with Love.

All I'm saying is I would follow the Packers model on steroids. 1st chance I got to draft a QB after 5 years of Stroud I would do it and after 7 years I would trade Stroud for a kings ransom. This is essentially what they did with Derrick and the Texans org is better off for things turning out the way they did.

Caserio/Ryans basically have a six year window to win a championship. Fortunately Caserio and Ryans understand this.
Green Bay draft history.
 
I'm pretty sure the Packers are happy with Love.

All I'm saying is I would follow the Packers model on steroids. 1st chance I got to draft a QB after 5 years of Stroud I would do it and after 7 years I would trade Stroud for a kings ransom. This is essentially what they did with Derrick and the Texans org is better off for things turning out the way they did.

Caserio/Ryans basically have a six year window to win a championship. Fortunately Caserio and Ryans understand this.
The Texans had little choice after Watson refused to play for the Texans, then the scandal hit. They got lucky to find a trade partner as desperate and foolish as the Browns were. You can bet that kind of trade won't be happening again for another 35 years or so.
 
The only thing I could find is he has been engaged in some friendly trash talking with Zaire Franklin of the Colts and Micah Parsons. I might be missing something but if what saw and read is all there is to it, I'm not concerned.


I'm confident that if Stroud steps out of line, DM will reel him back in.

Yeah

As long as he balls out he can talk all he wants.
 
The Texans had little choice after Watson refused to play for the Texans, then the scandal hit. They got lucky to find a trade partner as desperate and foolish as the Browns were. You can bet that kind of trade won't be happening again for another 35 years or so.
Disagree,, you're going to get that type of compensation if you trade a star level QB in his prime. No luck involved in that.
 
I'm curious about the 2 voters who voted "I was skeptical and am still skeptical." I am well familiar with the PTSD that Bill O'Brien created, but if having a rookie QB come in and set multiple NFL records doesn't shake that disorder off, I'm not sure what to tell them.
 
Okay you set the number at 17,% after that you aren't going to win a championship. So more than that and you're wasting time. You can choose to live in in fear or you can be a risk taker. I'm a risk taker knowing that anything above 17% means I'm most likely not going to win a championship. But hey, I'm wired.differently than most folks.
It had never been higher than 15% until last year and then suddenly now we’re at 17%. Could be 19% by next year, but whatever sure set it at 17%

You can rework these contracts to keep their cap hits to keep these deals in line with that number as long as you are willing to continue committing to the QB long term. Allen is at 11% this year projected to be 15% next year. As long as you’re willing to commit to these guys long term and are willing to rework the deals when necessary then the percentage can stay in that range.

There’s a useful concept in finance called risk adjusted return, I don’t think your risk adjusted return is near as high as you think it is especially given all the factors you ignore
 
Yeah

As long as he balls out he can talk all he wants.
When I read that immediately after it was put on the internet, I just thought it was three guys bantering. I understand that Parsons and Stroud are [were] overseas pushing football. I think it was yesterday someone posted that CJ had been intercepted in Japan. I assume it was some sort of an exhibition.
Perhaps some of us are suffering from watsonitis?
 
When I read that immediately after it was put on the internet, I just thought it was three guys bantering. I understand that Parsons and Stroud are [were] overseas pushing football. I think it was yesterday someone posted that CJ had been intercepted in Japan. I assume it was some sort of an exhibition.
Perhaps some of us are suffering from watsonitis?

With a touch of Obrienifilus and Easterbyorea thrown in!
 
It had never been higher than 15% until last year and then suddenly now we’re at 17%. Could be 19% by next year, but whatever sure set it at 17%

You can rework these contracts to keep their cap hits to keep these deals in line with that number as long as you are willing to continue committing to the QB long term. Allen is at 11% this year projected to be 15% next year. As long as you’re willing to commit to these guys long term and are willing to rework the deals when necessary then the percentage can stay in that range.

There’s a useful concept in finance called risk adjusted return, I don’t think your risk adjusted return is near as high as you think it is especially given all the factors you ignore

The issue is when to take the cap hit, pushing it further into the future doesn't erase the amount of guaranteed money, and generally requires turning non-guaranteed money into guaranteed.

The only relief is that the total cap keeps rising, making the cap hit stay the same, even though the amount of guartanteed money due increase.
 
I'm curious about the 2 voters who voted "I was skeptical and am still skeptical." I am well familiar with the PTSD that Bill O'Brien created, but if having a rookie QB come in and set multiple NFL records doesn't shake that disorder off, I'm not sure what to tell them.
Was 2023 "Come on Eileen" following Ohio St in 2022?

Or the Eagles first album "Eagles 1972" leading to many years of supreme excess?
For me, I'm going to
"Take it easy" and avoid "Witchy Woman".
 
It had never been higher than 15% until last year and then suddenly now we’re at 17%. Could be 19% by next year, but whatever sure set it at 17%

You can rework these contracts to keep their cap hits to keep these deals in line with that number as long as you are willing to continue committing to the QB long term. Allen is at 11% this year projected to be 15% next year. As long as you’re willing to commit to these guys long term and are willing to rework the deals when necessary then the percentage can stay in that range.

There’s a useful concept in finance called risk adjusted return, I don’t think your risk adjusted return is near as high as you think it is especially given all the factors you ignore
I just know what the numbers say.

The main reason teams dont operate the way I would like has to do with marketing. Look at some fans still crying for Derrick even after all of the perverted stuff came out. Best thing that ever happened was the Texans getting out from under Derrick's contract and being able to trade him for a kings ransom. You know they could trade Stroud after yr 7 and get a kings ransom too. If the Texans haven't won a championship by yr 7 with Stroud they most likely never will win a championship with him, so moving on would be the way I would go.
 
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Probably better if he doesn't have Watson's baggage or Bill O'Brien is on the other team...
But the odds of any team wanting to trade a star-level QB in his prime are slimmer than none
Totally agree with this, it will never happen although it should happen. This is just a philosophy of mine. I dont have to worry about the backlash from fans, marketing etc....
 
The Texans had little choice after Watson refused to play for the Texans, then the scandal hit. They got lucky to find a trade partner as desperate and foolish as the Browns were. You can bet that kind of trade won't be happening again for another 35 years or so.
If Stroud plays like he did this yr then you probably could get even more.
 
Cap is another way Nick earns his millions. Guaranteed $ is what has to be dealt with and it's not going away. As we see repeatedly, guaranteed money is increasing.
Only Daniel Hunter and Tunsil are above 10 million and we have 23 million in cap space.

In 2025, Howard and Stingley join them. Howard is the only concern I have at this point.

Weeks and Autry only 'age' players that play significant roles unless I'm missing someone.

We seem to be in really good shape as Nick and Ryans appear to be in an All In this year mind frame.
 
I just know what the numbers say.

The main reason teams dont operate the way I would like has to do with marketing. Look at some fans still crying for Derrick even after all of the perverted stuff came out. Best thing that ever happened was the Texans getting out from under Derrick's contract and being able to trade him for a kings ransom. You know they could trade Stroud after yr 7 and get a kings ransom too. If the Texans haven't won a championship by yr 7 with Stroud they most likely never will win a championship with him, so moving on would be the way I would go.
You don’t know what the numbers say though. Before 2022 you would have been on here saying “well no QB has ever won the Super Bowl taking up more than 13% of the cap. And now that number has gone up to 17%. Clearly not a hard and fast number.

You’ve also ignored the fact that these cap numbers are workable and you can build windows with smaller QB cap hits as long as you are still willing to commit to the QB long term.

And you’ve also ignored the numbers that say how low the chances are of drafting a Super Bowl caliber QB and how long that would likely take.
 
You don’t know what the numbers say though. Before 2022 you would have been on here saying “well no QB has ever won the Super Bowl taking up more than 13% of the cap. And now that number has gone up to 17%. Clearly not a hard and fast number.

You’ve also ignored the fact that these cap numbers are workable and you can build windows with smaller QB cap hits as long as you are still willing to commit to the QB long term.

And you’ve also ignored the numbers that say how low the chances are of drafting a Super Bowl caliber QB and how long that would likely take.
I was saying this when it was 13%. The Rams and Stafford won a SB with Stafford eating up more than 13% because the Rams mortgaged their future to win a SB. (BTW,A philosophy I agree with) Mahomes and Brady are the only other 2 to beat the odds and their the best QB's of their generations. So if your the best of your generatoin then maybe you have a point. Otherwise it's best to move on after yr 7.
 
The Packers had two QBs for 31 seasons. But yes, they always did draft QBs even if they never played them.

... Aaron Rodgers contract calls for a $63 million cap hit in 2026. And it's a voidable year where he's not even on the team....


...The cap rules the NFL and when your QB eats up too much of the cap you aren't going to win a championship....

...There's a 7 yr window to win a championship before the QB gets expensive. This 7 yr window could be shorter if the QB/Agent want all of the cash up front...

Got a little curious while catching up on this thread, but first, a question: What is or should be the goal, to field a team which is competitive and entertaining? Or to win the Big One?

The Packers had two QBs from 1992 to 2022. In this 30 year span, with two of the greatest QBs in NFL history, they won only two SBs. The first was XXXI in 1996, Favre's 5th with the Packers. The second was XLV in 2010, Rodgers' 4th with the Packers.

Now to top it all off, the Packers are going to be hit with a $63M cap hit on one player no longer with the team.

Was this good football strategy? Will we be satisfied with a similar career path for Stroud?
 
Now to top it all off, the Packers are going to be hit with a $63M cap hit on one player no longer with the team.

It’s the Jets that will be incurring the $63 million cap hit in 2026. And it was an example of how teams will pay anything to get a QB. As long as they don’t have to pay right now. Contracts and cap management cannot be measured by what happened in the past.
 
It’s the Jets that will be incurring the $63 million cap hit in 2026. And it was an example of how teams will pay anything to get a QB. As long as they don’t have to pay right now. Contracts and cap management cannot be measured by what happened in the past.
Ignore history and history will repeat itself
 
I'm curious about the 2 voters who voted "I was skeptical and am still skeptical." I am well familiar with the PTSD that Bill O'Brien created, but if having a rookie QB come in and set multiple NFL records doesn't shake that disorder off, I'm not sure what to tell them.
Me too, and I'm open to a differing point of view. I was skeptical of Stroud prior to the draft because the hit rate of quarterbacks in general isn't very good. I thought the best we could hope for was an average level NFL starter and anything above that would be a bonus. And this was even after I watched the quarterbacks in the combine in which I came away very impressed by his accuracy. But I reminded myself this was just the combine.

Naturally, Stroud's rookie campaign had me very excited for the future of the Texans. Even so, my optimism is still on the cautious side. After all, after Watson's rookie campaign I was stoked on the future only to see it all come crashing down. After that all went down, I became indifferent. On top of Watson's issues and sitting out for a year, O'Brien had decimated the roster and mortgaged the future by depleting the franchise of high draft picks. Even though I liked the player, I cringed when the Texans traded for Will.

Some fans have a short memory in regard to their team's woes. Others are hard to convince the storm is over. I'm about in the middle. I've stepped outside in the sunshine with an umbrella. If Stroud shines again in 2024, I'll put the umbrella in the trunk.
 
He's been all over social media. Sophomore slumps are real. He needs to get back to football.
Yeah I know, but I don’t believe he’s getting full of himself. He’s just a confident young man who is enjoying his moment. And what do you mean get back to football? He’s worked out with his receivers, since we’re following him on social media. You should know that. He’s in the lab working out on a regular.
Sometimes y’all act like these people can’t have a life outside of their profession. Do you work 24/7 without any breaks, time with your family/friends or a little time to yourself?
 
He's been all over social media. Sophomore slumps are real. He needs to get back to football.
One of his training sessions was used to bond with four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs shortly after Houston traded for him last month. The throwing session -- that Stroud described as "great" -- involved Tank Dell, John Metchie III, Diggs and others in Los Angeles.

 
Ignore history and history will repeat itself

Why do I get this image in my head when reading this post? Did it come from a 386 in a den with wood paneling and a 6ft stack of VHS tapes?

b0235dccde56b0be35a30ec0772e334b.jpg
 
Why do I get this image in my head when reading this post? Did it come from a 386 in a den with wood paneling and a 6ft stack of VHS tapes?

Why do I get this image in my head when reading this post? Did it come from a 386 in a den with wood paneling and a 6ft stack of VHS tapes?

b0235dccde56b0be35a30ec0772e334b.jpg
Because you must have skipped out on history classes. Or aren't near as smart as you think you are.
 
He's been all over social media. Sophomore slumps are real. He needs to get back to football.
He's done a day 1 draft show with Bleacher Report and a football camp in China.

"All over social media" is just people posting clips from these outings and both are literally football related.

I think people need to chill and realize that people talking about CJ isn't the same as CJ talking.

Not only that but when watching the Bleacher Report show you can tell he's still all about ball with the breadth of knowledge about the players from this draft he already had.
 
He's done a day 1 draft show with Bleacher Report and a football camp in China.

"All over social media" is just people posting clips from these outings and both are literally football related.

I think people need to chill and realize that people talking about CJ isn't the same as CJ talking.

Not only that but when watching the Bleacher Report show you can tell he's still all about ball with the breadth of knowledge about the players from this draft he already had.
I'm just glad he's not getting baptized in the River Jordan.

Or is hanging out with the Kardashian's.
 
I just know what the numbers say.

The main reason teams don't operate the way I would like has to do with marketing. Look at some fans still crying for Derrick even after all of the perverted stuff came out. Best thing that ever happened was the Texans getting out from under Derrick's contract and being able to trade him for a kings ransom. You know they could trade Stroud after yr 7 and get a kings ransom too. If the Texans haven't won a championship by yr 7 with Stroud they most likely never will win a championship with him, so moving on would be the way I would go.
John Elway, Rich Gannon, Jim Plunkett disagree.
 
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