amazing80
Hall of Fame
I think this is the more likely scenario.
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All encompassing Rick Smith thread
- Thread starter djohn2oo8
- Start date
I think this is the more likely scenario.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Who are these new people? C'mon folks, even if you disagree with them these are intelligent people we are talking about here. NFL contracts are rapidly evolving. Arguably we have seen three generations of contracts in structure philosophy during the existence of the Texans. Generalizations really don't hack it in this discussion.
Juszcyk is starting and contributing. They cut Leach to save $$$$. They set up Leach's contract to save $$$ if he was cut and replced him with Juszcyk.
I will take 4 starters out of any Rick Smith draft. They also drafted guys with high upside /talented but troubled players like Jensen and injured but high upside players Kapron-Lewis late in the draft. These guys are low cost wildcards. Rick Smith takes chances on guys like these in the 3rd/4th rd. See: Nix this yr and Montgomery/Williamses last yr. Ozzie takes these chances in rds 4-7 after adding solid players in the early rds. That's why he hits on guys like Wagner.
This draft is a microcosm of why the Ravens/Ozzie are where they are and the Texans and Smith are where they are. Thanks for proving my point for me.
Of course it's not fair to compare Ozzie who has complete control over personel to Smith who we are not sure what he does but we are sure he doesn't have the power Ozzie has.
PHILLYTEXANFAN
Saddle Up Partner
FIre Rick. Hire Pioli
amazing80
Hall of Fame
Brian Gaine. So you think it's a coincidence we altered our contracts the same time he came? It wouldn't surprise me if he was mcnairs backup plan for smith. I'm not in favor of it but it's an intriguing thought.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Dude's over pro scouting. Other than not wanting to give credit to the existing people for being able to think at all, what do you have?
Honestly, I think he meddles with the team too much and does not let the people who know football handle it. But like you said earlier, we can only hope McNair gets lucky and accidentally finds a good GM or Rick Smith turns into one.
amazing80
Hall of Fame
The guy was an assistant Gm of Miami prior to coming here, its not like he is some noob in the business.
I laid out numerous things pages back on Smith and his short comings. People do not magically change the way they do business. They have to learn or be shown another way. We will probably never know the truth behind the change in contracts, but I think it has little to do with Smith himself, just based on his history.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I didn't say he was a noob. I implied his job has nothing to do with money. And it doesn't. There is absolutely nothing to indicate this guy is now instrumental in contracts.
Nothing magic about it. As you say, learning is an explanation. As a numbers guy it's kind of your job to watch contracts around the league, figure out trends, identify issues, adapt, etc.
But learning doesn't fit your agenda. He sucks, now and forever no matter what is done.
He's not above reproach. I think he did a bad deal on Myers' contract. But probably not for the reason you may think.
What part of "this is a copy-cat league" do you not get.
If front-loaded contracts are the current trend, that's what the Texans' F/O will start doing.
No magic involved.
dream_team
Hall of Fame
Is Juszcyk is starting and contributing just like Prosch is "starting and contributing"? I guess we can put him as also another great find by Rick!
Teams typically only have one FB on the roster. So if you're the FB on the team, I guess that does make you the "starting fullback".You know in all of Rick's drafts from 2007-2012, he has drafted at least 4 "starters". (The term "starter" is such a broad term, so I went with a player that has started several games for any team in the league)
So let me get this straight... Newsome taking gamble on guys from the 4th round & later are good decisions, but Rick taking gambles from the 3rd round & later are bad? That one round makes all the difference in the world from a good & bad decision?
I like how you fail to address the big swing & miss in the 2nd round by Newsome.
Hey, we finally agree!
I've never had an issue with back loaded contracts. Makes too much sense to me. It lets the player know they need to continue to play at a high level if they're going to expect to get anything down the road.
If there's a big cap hit coming, you know you're likely to be cut if you're not producing.
That said, the only issue I ever had was letting players play out those contracts. My intention is to never take a cap hit that doesn't make sense. Antonio Smith for example, sure... in my mind he played to that $8M level the last two seasons he was here. We should have extended him, a new contract to keep him here, but restructured him to a $5M cap hit. If he could give me two/three more seasons at that $8M level, that's great. Then I could cut him when he is no longer able to play at that level.
Andre Johnson. I don't want to get into a $10M salary. I love him, want him to retire a Texans... But.... I'd have reworked his contract last year. A six year deal structured where I can cut him at a minimum cost after year three (which his current contract ends). He's got a $15.6M cap hit this year, a $16M cap hit next year, & a $14.6M cap hit in 2016.
With a back loaded deal, I could have given him $30M guaranteed (which is what he will earn in salary 2014, & 2015). He'd have a cap hit of $10M ($4.6M old extension, $5M new extension, $1M vet minimum) for 2014, 2015, & 2016, freeing up $5M in each of those years. 2016, we'd have to bump his salary a little to get his cap up to $10M. 2017, we'd have to bump his salary to get up to a $10M cap hit, but I'd probably do more of a roster bonus. That way if he doesn't play, I'll take about a $10M cap hit, if he plays, I'll take a $10M cap hit.
It made all the sense in the world to me, because based off his 2013 season, I can reasonably expect him to play near that level through 2015 & expect some drop off in 2016..... Then with Hopkins playing as well as he's playing this year, it just made too much sense.
Instead, now we know it is very unlikely that he'll play well enough to justify a $16M cap hit in 2015.
Kaiser Toro
Native Mod
The average tenure for a NFL GM is 4 years. Smith has had ample opportunity to raise the talent level and make a positive impact. We need new blood at the top.
Is Juszcyk is starting and contributing just like Prosch is "starting and contributing"? I guess we can put him as also another great find by Rick!
You know in all of Rick's drafts from 2007-2012, he has drafted at least 4 "starters". (The term "starter" is such a broad term, so I went with a player that has started several games for any team in the league)
So let me get this straight... Newsome taking gamble on guys from the 4th round & later are good decisions, but Rick taking gambles from the 3rd round & later are bad? That one round makes all the difference in the world from a good & bad decision?
I like how you fail to address the big swing & miss in the 2nd round by Newsome.
Hey, we finally agree!
Agreed about the FB.
Tell me about the 4 starters. I'm not going to spend time looking it up and there's a difference between starters and quality starters. I'm pretty sure the Williams/Montgomery draft didn't field 4 starters.
You should draft starters with lower risk in the 3rd rd. So yes from the 4th rd on is where I would take risks. This eliminates the Montgomery/Williamses of the world.
The Ravens LB's are really good and Brown cant beat them out, no shame in that. Brown would probably be the most talented ILB on the Texans at this time.
I was being fair and we do agree on not knowing the Texans structure.
Spot On
TexansFight
Veteran
That will be one of the happiest days of my life if that comes to fruition. We will have a legit chance then.
HOU-TEX
Ah, Football!
Hou-Tex
Charlie C.
Excellent choice. For all we know Charlie made brilliant suggestions but was always overruled by McNair and Capers/Kubiak.
H
humblegeo
Guest
Time for a change. Should have been let go with the coaching staff after the 2-14 season.
For his Kubiak year, he did. We don't know what the dynamic was between Capers/Casserly/McNair... Capers didn't highly recommend Casserly.
eriadoc
Texan-American
CC did some good things here that he never got credit for, and he was blamed for some things that were pretty clearly not his fault. But he did enough horrible crap on his own that no one was/is willing to give him the benefit of doubt.
If someone ever writes a "tell all" book about this front office, it would be a hit with Houston football fans. This FO has the secrecy of the KGB when it comes to power structure. 13 years into it and we are all still in the dark about basic things.
I just remember Casserly disemboweling the best secondary in the NFL because, according to lore, he didn't want any DBs that were 30 or above.
I'm not sure it is all that secret. The Texans might try to keep everything as secret as possible, but that doesn't mean information doesn't leak out through the observable effects of their actions. It's like using pattern recognition to break a super-secret code.
I think the Texans fall somewhere in the range of a normal NFL organization structure. I think they have made so many mistakes in free agency and the draft because Rick Smith is a bad GM and carries a lot of that responsibility, even if he is helped out in failure by a meddling owner.
I think that is far more likely that Rick Smith is a bad GM than that he is always against the bad decisions and being overruled. McNair is a competent enough businessman to realize at some point that he keeps overruling the guy that is always right.
There was a major rift between Casserly's front office and Capers' coaching staff to the point there were "Casserly players" and "Capers players". That political rift exploded and was a huge factor in the team going from 7-9 to 2-14. The major culprit in the disintegration of the team? Joe Pendry.
But that is ancient history as perceived by me.
I think we know what the structure is, just don't want to admit it. Rick Smith is the GM, he manages player acquisition & the business side of the equation. Coaches have input in the acquisition part, they've got to be able to work with the players, so it only makes sense. O'Brien is in charge of player development & managing the game.
McNair is in charge of football operations, he's our John Elway. The GM & the coach work for him. He's obviously a lot more involved than we want to give him credit for.
Thought the McNair's weren't meddling owners? They are supposed to be the perfect owners and yes, Rick Smith is Cal McNair's yes man. I've got the feeling that Cal is really the 3rd voice in the room. A defacto GM in the warroom and he sucks at it.
The McNair's can do no wrong to some fans. These fans are the types of fans where winning isn't the most important thing. They're happy going out to Nrg tailgaiting /getting drunk and have a large time with their buddies. (This is OK)
But until those types of fans demand a winner and vote with their wallet, the McNair's will continue with business as usual.
I get what you're saying, but honestly, how truly reliable is leaked information?
If Rick Smith really is a bad GM and is responsible for D-level drafts year after year, then that says a lot about McNair and his seemingly inability to make operational decisions to improve his football team.
And if that is the case, then is it simply nepotism that keeps Cal's BFF and godfather to his child around? I'd hate to believe this because it paints an almost hopeless scenario that the best we can dream of is a blind squirrel occasionally getting a nut.
Obviously, all of this is speculation in conversation, so nobody take it and run with it like it is gospel truth. Enjoy the dialogue for what it is, folks, but it is nothing to argue about.
Troy Chapman
Rookie
Jayson Braddock just posted that he thinks Brian Gaine slides in as GM for 2015. Thoughts?
I don't look at it as 12 years of mediocre. I look at it as three attempts by McNair.
- Casserly/Capers 2002-2006
Utter failure. No one was expecting championship from this iteration. All they wanted was to field an NFL team & a winning season. Didn't happen. - Kubiak/Smith 2006-2010
Success. Most people don't see it this way. But with the same expectations Casserly/Capers had with the addition of salvaging what was an utter failure... it was a success. - Kubiak/Smith/Phillips 2010-2013
Mild success. These guys were winners in 2011 & 2012. The 2011 team was a true title contender. The 2012 team was held together with bubble gum & twist ties. But they still won 12 games, & won a play off game. The 2010 & 2013 team failures were of such epic failures, the little success they had gets lost in the context.
So I don't think the McNairs are in the "blind squirrel" category. I actually feel really good about the future of this team, Rick Smith not withstanding.
Are the McNairs meddling? I don't know. They got us Wade... then again they let Richard Smith hang on for years after they knew he wasn't getting the job done....
I do know if I owned an NFL franchise, I'd be a little more involved than McNair, a little less than Jerrah... but I'd probably get as much facetime as Jerrah.
Good speculation, man, and adds some interesting food for thought to the on-going conversation.
I think Gaine would do a good job, but nobody knows for sure.
I would rather have a proven GM like Pioli. He's probably to rich for the McNair's blood though.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
I'm not sure about Gaine. Working under Jeff Ireland clouds his achievements, as Ireland can be a one man team wrecker.
FWIW, Lance and JB both like Gaine. He has gotten some looks at GM from others.
If you only go off his pro-personnel moves this year, bringing in guys like Darryl Morris make him look pretty good.
eriadoc
Texan-American
I and a couple others pointed out years ago how curious it was that a proven businessman like Bob McNair would turn over his business to a pair of rookies in Smith and Kubiak. I could see one rookie, but pair him with a proven counterpart. Well, now we have another rookie HC and the proven GM has proven to suck. I would rather see an experienced GM that has the soft skills necessary to work with all the parties involved, but the knowledge and experience to build a winning team.
I'm hoping it is slow to learn, not an inability to learn.
By "information leaking out" I didn't necessarily mean leaks. I meant drawing conclusions from things that have taken place - overpaying over-the-hill-free agents (which might have finally stopped), wasted high draft picks, etc.
And yes, this is all speculation.
Texian
Hall of Fame
Rick is there to do what McNair and the Head Coach need for him to do. In addition Rick is also responsible for overseeing the pro and college scouting departments. Along with organizing and operating the draft. That doesn't mean that Rick is making the draft picks. It means he orchestrates the draft from a standpoint that if McNair/O'Brien say trade down or move up Rick makes it happen. If O'Brien says he wants to target Nix with the next pick in the next round, Rick advises they may have to move up to get Nix. If O'Brien says do it, Rick makes it happen. If McNair/O'Brien say draft Clowney with the first pick, Rick makes happen. The only area where Rick Smith can really be held accountable and responsible is the performance of the scouting departments. And in mind, for that, Rick gets a C- or a D grade. So in essence Rick is not directly making any decisions where he can be held accountable.
Casserly on the other hand had done much more where he could be held accountable and judged, beginning with the hiring of Capers.
https://espn.go.com/chrismortensen/s/2001/0119/1026375.html
Casserly also had final say on the 53 man roster where Smith does not. There is no real benefit of the doubt for Smith because he is simply completing the task he has been asked to do by the Head Coach and the Owner. It's hard to fire a guy when he's doing what you ask him to do.
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If Clowney/Nix get healthy and SFX/Fideo show the usual yr 1 to yr 2 growth in their games, then this can still be a great class. It all depends on the top picks getting healthy and unfortunately I don't have much faith in the Texans medical/training staff.
It appears when it comes to injuries the Texans org has a shortsided approach that only leads to careers being damaged/ended prematurely. I've got a feeling this thought process starts at the top with McNair's/Smith.
That draft grade was relevant at the time. Now is a different time & three years from now will be a different time still.
The draft would look a lot better if our 1st, 2nd, & second 3rd round pick were contributing as players in those spots are expected to, even with the expected rookie struggles.
But as it is, virtually nothing from Clowney, XSF, or Nix with injury being the primary culprits for Clowney & Nix (already on IR).
False Start
On # 69
I've been looking back at the draft classes, and damn... it's a pretty sad site. Hardly any of the players are contributing at a high level or are out of the league. There are players like JJ, Nuk, D. Drown, and Kareem, but besides that, the players that we still have on the team are average at best.
For reference.
For reference.
TEXANRED
Texan-American
The draft is like waking up in the morning. Everything is bright and beautiful and yesterday is dead and gone. You stretch, yawn, shower, poop, shave, dress with a smile on your face and off to work to conquer the day. The commute to is like the regular season, everything is down hill once you hit the freeway.
dream_team
Hall of Fame
Ever since Smith came on board, I never thought finding talent was this team's problem. Keeping them healthy and on the field is.
Thorn
Dirty Old Man
I agree with this. The Texans history of injured and rehabbing players is long and getting longer.
If you're Rick Smith it's like this.
If you're Ozzie Newsome/John Schnieder/Ted Thompson etc... not so much.