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All encompassing 2022 draft thoughts thread

This Texans draft doesn’t need a QB selected simply for the reason, had Mills been in the mix….he’d more than likely be rated the #1 QB in this class.

A lot of these QB’s are just being elevated into RD1 b/c they’re QB’s. This class is full of RD2 to RD5 QB’s.

Mills must be given this season to establish the hold on the position. They have 2 viable backups for the season.

Caserio’s job is to set the table for Mills success. If he doesn’t progress as expected, then the Texans have 2023 and 2024 to address the position….especially when there’s one or more real RD1 Franchise QB1’s on the board.
 
Taking a QB can fill need, build out a roster, add value in trade options down the road and depth in case of emergency.

Take one, instead of a clip board toter, who could be a starter in your system. Mills, third rounder, had injury history and lack of starts (covid in cali). Low and behold, despite all the fan bitching, turned into a smart move, very smart. So if your board tells you there is another guy, with similar traits available late 3rd, it’s worth kicking the tires.

I’ve never been a fan of carrying three or more QB’s (waste of roster spot) bringing in guys who will never develop into starter material or build draft equity.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
This Texans draft doesn’t need a QB selected simply for the reason, had Mills been in the mix….he’d more than likely be rated the #1 QB in this class.

A lot of these QB’s are just being elevated into RD1 b/c they’re QB’s. This class is full of RD2 to RD5 QB’s.

Mills must be given this season to establish the hold on the position. They have 2 viable backups for the season.

Caserio’s job is to set the table for Mills success. If he doesn’t progress as expected, then the Texans have 2023 and 2024 to address the position….especially when there’s one or more real RD1 Franchise QB1’s on the board.
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Stats I was looking at the other day showed that over the last 25 years only 4% of the QB’s selected in the first round ever made it to the pro bowl. Food for thought.
 
leebigeztx said:
I'm not talking myself into anything. People always talk about there isn't a qb or they don't like them until a team evaluate the talent and the Texans are left with mediocre qb play. I rewatched Allen pro day and Willis again and I come away with the same skill set. Both were very raw, but the talent is through the roof. Go watch the ease at which Willis throws the ball. Look at his lower body and his power. As a prospect, he has it all. He can be a plus,plus thrower of the football. Not only that, he scored a 31 on the wonderlick which doesn't mean much to me, but it shows his basic intellect. The ball explodes off his hand with ease. Not only that, he has a scramble element. Remember, Baker and Darnold had much better 1st seasons than Allen, but once coaching caught up with the talent, we saw the results. Is Willis ready now? Probably not, but his ceiling could put the Texans back in the mix much sooner than expected. If he flops, well, they have draft picks. You have to have the guy, not a guy. At the end of the day, a qb will have to offset personel losses. You'll never be able to stack a team to overcome a qb with no special qualities. Now if someone says his pre and post snap game going be like Brady or Manning, then ok, but everyone know thats asking alot. If the name of the game is competition, then every position, including the qb should have competition. Miami is trying to give Tua everything around him, but if they had taken the guy with the upside vs the polished guy, they wouldn't be in the position they're in.
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I like Willis. I watched him too.
And I do like his personality and his perceived intelligence. It shows me Liberty is a good school that produces solid young adults more than anything else.
If they took him with 13 I wouldn’t cry, that’s for sure.
But I think they are going with Mills and I’m not seeing his ceiling as low as some make it out to be.
 
IDEXAN said:
www.rrstar.com

Q&A: Former Rockford Auburn star on his way to the Illini football record book

Former Auburn star Vederian Lowe talks performances, coaching, family and the NFL in a Q&A with the Rockford Register Star.
www.rrstar.com
***
This is a captivating young man with some real potential if for no other reason that he's been a real iron man during collge career - rarely missed a game or a start for that mattet while at Illinois.
He's has kids included one he & his wife adopted, so we are talking about a very responsible and mature young man here.
Physically he's very comparable to that very lengthy OT drafted out of the small college by Rick Smith in the 4th round few years back.
I dunno but seems this guy is surely worth a 6th rounder given his extreme positional value.
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I'm sure Lovie knows all about him, since he was the coach at Illinois
 
leebigeztx said:
Go watch the ease at which Willis throws the ball.
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I’m not saying you are wrong.

I agree if the Texans think he is special they need to get him. I don’t think he’s special, but I haven’t put much time into looking at him.

what little I did see, he doesn’t look like a “natural” thrower to me.
leebigeztx said:
Remember, Baker and Darnold had much better 1st seasons than Allen, but once coaching caught up with the talent, we saw the results.
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Completely agree. If Willis, Picket. Strong, or any of these QBs are more prolific than Davis Mills three/four years from now, that would not be good.

this is the job of the scouts & the GM.

But remember Jake Locker, Christian Ponder. Other teams will gamble on these guys, doesn’t mean they are right, or we should.

leebigeztx said:
Not only that, he scored a 31 on the wonderlick which doesn't mean much to me, but it shows his basic intellect. The ball explodes off his hand with ease.
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Again, the physicals don’t really jump out to me watching Willis. Not to argue with you. Reports are gaga over his physical gifts.

what intrigues me most are reports about his interviews. He comes across as intelligent, smart, and a leader.

Those traits may put him over the top & a top 5 pick
 
After the combine with all the hype, the DW guaranteed contract, the Hill trade over money etc the hype in the NFL is off the charts. I’m not buying all of it especially regarding the “depth” of this draft take. Comes from my general distaste for bull shitters. I think there is potentially a lot of land mines in this draft. lots of guys looking good on the driving range this year but then there is that problem with the intangibles and they fail to make the cut. This is where I think a Lovie and Pep can prove invaluable. Lovie has his philosophy, current trends be damned. I have to believe he’s seen it all and can help get this draft through the minefield. With that said I can see some teams this year giving up a lot to move up in the first round due to the hype and later as picks start coming off the board. I’d love to see us pick up extra picks and rely on Lovie to find those gems that fit his scheme.
 
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Dejaview said:
Stats I was looking at the other day showed that over the last 25 years only 4% of the QB’s selected in the first round ever made it to the pro bowl. Food for thought.
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Doesn’t help that 6th round Brady (AFC) and 2nd round Brees (NFC) occupied two of those six slots majority of that time.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Doesn’t help that 6th round Brady (AFC) and 2nd round Brees (NFC) occupied two of those six slots majority of that time.
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Sure but all those first rounders had the opportunity to skew the stats their way over 25 years But didn’t. That was kind of the point of the data.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
This Texans draft doesn’t need a QB selected simply for the reason, had Mills been in the mix….he’d more than likely be rated the #1 QB in this class.

A lot of these QB’s are just being elevated into RD1 b/c they’re QB’s. This class is full of RD2 to RD5 QB’s.

Mills must be given this season to establish the hold on the position. They have 2 viable backups for the season.

Caserio’s job is to set the table for Mills success. If he doesn’t progress as expected, then the Texans have 2023 and 2024 to address the position….especially when there’s one or more real RD1 Franchise QB1’s on the board.
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Texansballer74 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1507050924702842886
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Dammit!!
Was hoping he’d fall to HOU‘s 2nd.
6-5 and a 4.28….
I don’t see him getting out of the 1st now.
 
Dejaview said:
After the combine with all the hype, the DW guaranteed contract, the Hill trade over money etc the hype in the NFL is off the charts. I’m not buying all of it especially regarding the “depth” of this draft take. Comes from my general distaste for bull shitters. I think there is potentially a lot of land mines in this draft. lots of guys looking good on the driving range this year but then there is that problem with the intangibles and they fail to make the cut. This is where I think a Lovie and Pep can prove invaluable. Lovie has his philosophy, current trends be damned. I have to believe he’s seen it all and can help get this draft through the minefield. With that said I can see some teams this year giving up a lot to move up in the first round due to the hype and later as picks start coming off the board. I’d love to see us pick up extra picks and rely on Lovie to find those gems that fit his scheme.
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The reason you feel this way (And I feel the same way every time there's this type of draft.) is because the strength of this draft is on the OL/DL and maybe the DB's. The skill positions aren't sexy this yr. But there's quality in this draft. Of course the bust rate in this type of draft is slightly above avg.
 
Dejaview said:
Sure but all those first rounders had the opportunity to skew the stats their way over 25 years But didn’t. That was kind of the point of the data.
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Sorry but the data point “pro bowler” is a skewed stat. Hall of fame players tend to dominate the pro bowl slots. So if we dig in further then we see Peyton Manning and his 14 pro bowl nods leaving one more spot for the AFC to vie for… does that mean any QB other than Brady and Manning was a bust?

What about Ben Roethlisberger? He “only” made 6 pro bowls in his 17 year NFL career. Phillip Rivers managed 8 in his 16 year career.

And what about those GB QBs Favre/Rodgers hording that other NFC pro bowl slot?

Need a better data point to measure QB success than pro bowls. Hall of famers tend to hog the few spots available and that should not be the measurement of success imo.

Another example: Matt Ryan was a 1st round pick, has won an NFL MVP and by all accounts has had a productive NFL career worthy of his draft status since 2008. But “only” 4 pro bowls?! Its a silly data point. No, he hasn’t had a better career than Brees and Rodgers who have been hogging the pro bowls since he arrived. But he has proven to be a dang good QB.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
I like Sauce but one the bugs in his game is holding. I read that he got flagged quite a few times last season. Instead of using his speed to correct a situation he was falling back to holding receivers instead. That begins to remind me of Kareem Jackson.

When pro receivers watch his tape, they may try to expose this weakness.
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After Watching his work against Jameson Williams I would be willing to take this risk.
 
thunderkyss said:
I’m not saying you are wrong.

I agree if the Texans think he is special they need to get him. I don’t think he’s special, but I haven’t put much time into looking at him.

what little I did see, he doesn’t look like a “natural” thrower to me.

Completely agree. If Willis, Picket. Strong, or any of these QBs are more prolific than Davis Mills three/four years from now, that would not be good.

this is the job of the scouts & the GM.

But remember Jake Locker, Christian Ponder. Other teams will gamble on these guys, doesn’t mean they are right, or we should.



Again, the physicals don’t really jump out to me watching Willis. Not to argue with you. Reports are gaga over his physical gifts.

what intrigues me most are reports about his interviews. He comes across as intelligent, smart, and a leader.

Those traits may put him over the top & a top 5 pick
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Just conversation and projection. He could turn out to be terrible, just like any of draft pick. I mean think about all the picks Mike Mayock had at his disposal and was considered a draft guru on TV. Alot of those picks have been avg and some not even in the league. It's hard when your job depends on it. We will see soon enough.
 
thunderkyss said:
He said the Lions plan was to take Hutchinson if he's there. If not, they'll take what they believe is a franchise QB.
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I'm not buying this. If the Lions thought there was a franchise QB in this draft, they'd take him regardless of what other player was on the board.
Dejaview said:
Stats I was looking at the other day showed that over the last 25 years only 4% of the QB’s selected in the first round ever made it to the pro bowl.
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What's the % for DEs? OTs? Can you give a breakdown for every position for context?
 
leebigeztx said:
Just conversation and projection. He could turn out to be terrible, just like any of draft pick. I mean think about all the picks Mike Mayock had at his disposal and was considered a draft guru on TV. Alot of those picks have been avg and some not even in the league. It's hard when your job depends on it. We will see soon enough.
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Who knew Ruggs was going to be stupid.

Arnette was talented and said to be a team leader at Ohio St. To badd he went gangsta.

Jacobs was a good pick. IMHO

Leatherwood is going to be a fin OG for a long time. IMHO

Supposedly Gruden was making the final calls on personnel.
 
steelbtexan said:
Imagine trading down to #6 picking Sauce getting an extra 2nd plus a future 1st and then picking Davis at 13 and Sam Williams at 37. Then at 40 picking Salyer.

In the 3rd/4th load up on skill position players.
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I understand the gist,

but that’s a lot for three spots.
 
steelbtexan said:
Who knew Ruggs was going to be stupid.

Arnette was talented and said to be a team leader at Ohio St. To badd he went gangsta.

Jacobs was a good pick. IMHO

Leatherwood is going to be a fin OG for a long time. IMHO

Supposedly Gruden was making the final calls on personnel.
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No probowlers to show for Mack and Cooper trade. Not 1. Client Ferrell is avg also. The best player picked was Crosby and he's a 5th rd pick
 
Dejaview said:
Stats I was looking at the other day showed that over the last 25 years only 4% of the QB’s selected in the first round ever made it to the pro bowl. Food for thought.
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I challenge that one.
For example, these guys all went to the SB:-
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Rothlisberger
Matthew Stafford
Aaron Rogers
Joe Flacco
Pat Mahomes
Joe Burrow.
Now if you're talking Pro Bowl:-
DeShaun Watson(3)
Carson Palmer (2)
Phil Rivers (8)
Alex Smith (3)
Jay Cutler (1)
Matt Ryan (1)
Mark Sanchez no pro bowl, but 4 playoff game W
Cam Newton (1)
Which brings us to 2012 at which point I stopped checking - Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill...
Now, the guys in the SB likely played in the probowl, but the SB is more important.
If you go back and check, I believe you will find it is actually over 50%.
 
leebigeztx said:
Why wouldn't Texans consider Williams and his talent?
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They should, but if Iwas Caserio this draft is the draft to load up on the OL/DL and next yr and the skill position players you miss out on next yr. Example: draft Teague late and draft Bijan next yr.
 
The final 4 qb's in the playoffs this year all 1st rd qb's except Jimmy G. Last year, was 3 1st rd qb's and Brady. If you just go back 10 years, the odds are overwhelming that the conference championship have at least 3 1st rd qbs. The only outlier has been Brady, Wilson,and Brees.
Texansphan said:
I challenge that one.
For example, these guys all went to the SB:-
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Rothlisberger
Matthew Stafford
Aaron Rogers
Joe Flacco
Pat Mahomes
Joe Burrow.
Now if you're talking Pro Bowl:-
DeShaun Watson(3)
Carson Palmer (2)
Phil Rivers (8)
Alex Smith (3)
Jay Cutler (1)
Matt Ryan (1)
Mark Sanchez no pro bowl, but 4 playoff game W
Cam Newton (1)
Which brings us to 2012 at which point I stopped checking - Luck, Griffin III, Tannehill...
Now, the guys in the SB likely played in the probowl, but the SB is more important.
If you go back and check, I believe you will find it is actually over 50%.
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So you're drafting for need vs best player? You should never bypass high end talent for a need, correct?
steelbtexan said:
They should, but if Iwas Caserio this draft is the draft to load up on the OL/DL and next yr and the skill position players you miss out on next yr. Example: draft Teague late and draft Bijan next yr.
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steelbtexan said:
Nope, I like Walker/Davis more than Williams coming off an ACL.
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I'd pass on Walker early. He cant get off blocks and doesn't have a special closeout if you're talking Walker from Georgia. I've been on Davis for a minute even though he might play only 65%of the snaps. I do think you can get wr's outside the 1st rd because college is a passing league now. Nobody is running the wishbone anymore. He's top shelf though and we've seen players come back and play at a high level after that kind of injury. Once he went out, the game changed. Georgia was on their way to a loss again.
 
leebigeztx said:
The final 4 qb's in the playoffs this year all 1st rd qb's except Jimmy G. Last year, was 3 1st rd qb's and Brady. If you just go back 10 years, the odds are overwhelming that the conference championship have at least 3 1st rd qbs. The only outlier has been Brady, Wilson,and Brees.
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How many 1st round QBs watched? I bet you could make a good statistical argument for that.
 
thunderkyss said:
How many 1st round QBs watched? I bet you could make a good statistical argument for that.
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Think of the last 15 yrs of superbowl participants and take Brady out of it. How many non 1st rd qb's do you have? Brees,Wilson(2), Foles (even though Wentz was on pace to be mvp) and Jimmy G, thats it.
 
leebigeztx said:
I'd pass on Walker early. He cant get off blocks and doesn't have a special closeout if you're talking Walker from Georgia. I've been on Davis for a minute even though he might play only 65%of the snaps. I do think you can get wr's outside the 1st rd because college is a passing league now. Nobody is running the wishbone anymore. He's top shelf though and we've seen players come back and play at a high level after that kind of injury. Once he went out, the game changed. Georgia was on their way to a loss again.
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How did Walker lead the team in pressures if he can't get off blocks and he did this mainly from the DR position. Although he occasionally played some DW after Anderson got suspended.
 
steelbtexan said:
How did Walker lead the team in pressures if he can't get off blocks and he did this mainly from the DR position.
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I would take Quarterback hurries with a grain of salt. Maybe more than a grain. It's an unofficial self reported stat by Georgia. The entire Bulldog defense is credited with 263 QB Hurries for the season. In contrast, Alabama's statisticians credit the entire Tide defense with 49 QB hurries for the season. Those Bulldog stats seem more than a bit pumped up.
 
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