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2023 TEXANS DRAFT DISCUSSION

First, it's lying season. Stroud beat out a lot of highly recruited QBs to win the Ohio State QB job. I doubt he did that by loafing. Does anyone think the Ohio State coaches are badmouthing CJ? Who else would know if he were "hard to coach"? Do teams, including the Texans, have issues dealing with Stroud's agent? That I don't know, but Caserio has made strong statements about that not being the case.

What is very possible is that the Texans prefer a more mobile QB. And there may be a strong voice from the 49er coaches that came over that Trey Lance is more talented than the QBs available @ #2. I think the Colts would gobble Stroud up, in a heartbeat. I think the Raiders would move up for Stroud. Titans, Commanders, Vikings...there would also be strong interest in Stroud. He's still QB2 in this draft. And despite the early buzz from the media when the Panthers moved up, Stroud has always been QB2.

I think the Texans would be making a mistake passing on Stroud, and trading for Lance. Shanny would have gotten something out of Lance by now, if it were there. I'm sure Lance has flashed in practice. I'm sure he still has oodles of talent. I just don't think he's as good a QB as CJ Stroud. Or will be. As far as the rest of the QBs in this draft...they're not worth the investment. This is a 2 QB draft.
What do you mean? The plan was for Lance to sit the first year. He had to play in 2 games because JimmyG got injured. He was the starter last year until he got hurt in the 2nd game.
 
If you can trade down and get 5 and 20+ or 6 and 18+ you do it. You get Tyree or Anderson, a WR/Bijan, Hooker, and whatever else from the pick(s) you gained. If you don't want a WR/Bijan then pick up someone like Mingo later. Iosivas from Princeton, Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Use 12 on someone like Kancey if you go that route.

I'd rather have Anderson/Tyree, 12, Hooker than Stroud, WR.
 
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This is exactly why DeMeco Ryans would be interested in bringing in a Shanahan/Lynch protege Adam Peters to be the Texan's new GM. Someone who understands the WCO/ZBS, can build a scouting department that speaks WCO/ZBS, someone who can negotiate a contract and manage the salary cap, can speak plain English and clean house of all things New England and the Belichick step and fetch it.
 
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And none of those QBs (except Peyton) were bottom 3rd either. In fact they all were top 12 or better in passer rating those seasons. Again, except Peyton.

2012 - Flacco was 12th in PR, the Ravens offense was 10th in points, 16th yards.

2017 - Wentz actually powered that offense for 13 games. He was 4th in PR, the offense was 3rd in points and 7th in yards. Foles just had a Flacco like playoff run in a better offense than Flacco had.

2018 - Goff was 8th in PR. Rams offense was 2nd in both points and yards.

2019 - Jimmy G was 8th in PR, Niners offense was 2nd in points and 4th in yards.

So you actually do have to have good QB play, and no, it doesn't necessarily mean you need a top 10 QB, but that QB probably needs to play at a top 10 level in that particular season. To consistently be a contender though, a top 10 QB is pretty much a must.
 
I think it’s time for the fan base to accept that it isn’t CJ. There is now so much smoke, I’m about to die of inhalation.

If they were sold on CJ they wouldn’t be making proactive calls. I trust Lance on this. Put that together with a giant list of other breadcrumbs left over the past couple of weeks, and it’s painfully obvious they aren’t taking CJ.

If Bryce falls to them, they are taking him. If he isn’t, which is likely, I think they want out if they can get a reasonable offer. If not, it’s probably Anderson, but I could see them taking a huge swing on Richardson or Levis, or upsetting the apple cart by going Tyree Wilson.

Not that it matters, but in terms of pass rush, I have Tyree Wilson above Anderson. I do think Anderson is the more polished, more well rounded player. I’d take Anderson, but wouldn’t be upset by Wilson either.
 
I think it’s time for the fan base to accept that it isn’t CJ. There is now so much smoke, I’m about to die of inhalation.

If they were sold on CJ they wouldn’t be making proactive calls. I trust Lance on this. Put that together with a giant list of other breadcrumbs left over the past couple of weeks, and it’s painfully obvious they aren’t taking CJ.

If Bryce falls to them, they are taking him. If he isn’t, which is likely, I think they want out if they can get a reasonable offer. If not, it’s probably Anderson, but I could see them taking a huge swing on Richardson or Levis, or upsetting the apple cart by going Tyree Wilson.

Not that it matters, but in terms of pass rush, I have Tyree Wilson above Anderson. I do think Anderson is the more polished, more well rounded player. I’d take Anderson, but wouldn’t be upset by Wilson either.
Rumors got you all nutted up over there., Don’t believe the negative hype.
 
And none of those QBs (except Peyton) were bottom 3rd either. In fact they all were top 12 or better in passer rating those seasons. Again, except Peyton.

2012 - Flacco was 12th in PR, the Ravens offense was 10th in points, 16th yards.

2017 - Wentz actually powered that offense for 13 games. He was 4th in PR, the offense was 3rd in points and 7th in yards. Foles just had a Flacco like playoff run in a better offense than Flacco had.

2018 - Goff was 8th in PR. Rams offense was 2nd in both points and yards.

2019 - Jimmy G was 8th in PR, Niners offense was 2nd in points and 4th in yards.

So you actually do have to have good QB play, and no, it doesn't necessarily mean you need a top 10 QB, but that QB probably needs to play at a top 10 level in that particular season. To consistently be a contender though, a top 10 QB is pretty much a must.
While I agree about needing a good QB you can't ignore the defense's impact on a team.

Here is a comparison on the Chiefs 2018 & 2019 seasons

Statistically Mahomes was a better QB in 2018 than in 2019.

2018: 12-4 Record, 383-580 66.0% 5097 Yards, 50 TDs, started 16 games avg 3.1 TDs per game, Point Differential 565-421 = +144, Lost AFCCG

2019:
12-4 Record, 319-484 65.9% 4031 Yards, 26 TDs, started 14 games avg 1.8 TDs per game, Point Differential 451-308 = +143, SB Winner

He threw 24 more Tds in 2018. Some of this may be due to his injury in 2019 but he averaged 3.1 Tds per game in 2018 & 1.8 Tds per game in 2019. The Chiefs scored 114 more points in 2018 than 2019.

Yet the Chiefs finished with the same record both years & only outscored their opponents by 1 point more in 2018.

This is because their defense played much better in 2019 (at least in points allowed per game).

In 2018 the Chiefs were 25th in points allowed per game (24.8).
In 2019 the Chiefs were 7th in points allowed per game (18.5).

Like the old saying goes 'defense wins championships' & football is a team sport.
 
I don't think it's just Stroud being a vehicle for driving the price down for the 2 spot. I think there's a genuine split on Wilson and Anderson within teams that are looking to upgrade their front 7. Some people within a team's organization may want Anderson but will be happy to wait for Wilson or vice versa.

I feel like there's a lot of that with multiple positional groups in this draft. Which should make for an exciting and unpredictable draft.
 
I don't think it's just Stroud being a vehicle for driving the price down for the 2 spot. I think there's a genuine split on Wilson and Anderson within teams that are looking to upgrade their front 7. Some people within a team's organization may want Anderson but will be happy to wait for Wilson or vice versa.

I feel like there's a lot of that with multiple positional groups in this draft. Which should make for an exciting and unpredictable draft.
If Stroud was who many are saying he is, he would be driving the price of #2 up through the roof... think of the return Herschel Walker brought
 
As it relates to the draft, Will Anderson has the same pizzazz as does Young. Surely a team could trade up for their QB but Atlanta or Detroit might want to jump AZ and Seattle to get their "Young " Will Anderson.

This would backstop the Texans leaning towards WA rather than Stroud. To increase pressure.

Does a team make a spectacular PR move with a jump like Carolina or just wring their hands wishing and hoping Tyree or Murphy or Nolan Smith is going to satisfy fans?

So far, Nick doing well allowing others to talk for him and roil the media waters.
 
As it relates to the draft, Will Anderson has the same pizzazz as does Young. Surely a team could trade up for their QB but Atlanta or Detroit might want to jump AZ and Seattle to get their "Young " Will Anderson.

This would backstop the Texans leaning towards WA rather than Stroud. To increase pressure.

Does a team make a spectacular PR move with a jump like Carolina or just wring their hands wishing and hoping Tyree or Murphy or Nolan Smith is going to satisfy fans?

So far, Nick doing well allowing others to talk for him and roil the media waters.
This draft is firing up!
Crazy...!
 
What do you think would be a realistic trade package for Raiders moving from 7 to 2? Trade value chart has it at 1100 points different (equivalent to pick 14). If Texans can get their 2nd this year and 1st next year I would take that deal and run. But I doubt the Raiders want to part with their first next year.
Finding a trade partner and get full value will be a hard go. If we can get a 1st and 2nd and 2nd next year would be a bargain for a trading team but finding one is the problem.
 
If you don't take a QB in the Top 3, you are pretty much admitting you are trying to tank in 2023. That would absolutely mean that Casserio gets fired. Could mean DeMeco gets fired, since the Texans purged their coaches two years in a row.

Big drop off from CJ and Young to Richardson, smaller drop off from AR15 to Levis and Hooker.
 
Article on NFL.com finally talking about Hooker being the 3rd best QB in this draft and his stock moving into RD1.

As for his injury…..he’s saying he’ll be ready for camp. Let him suit up and do some learning, but I wouldn’t put him on the field until WK5 at the earliest. Keenum and Mills can handle the first 4 weeks.

As for his education, give him Caserio’s old job. Booth and headset so he can watch and absorb from an optimal vantage point, then bring him down to the sideline for GM3 to get an in game feel. Put him back in the booth for GM4 for more vantage point learning. In my guestimation, only way he doesn’t start GM5, CK has led the team to a winning record.
How many games are you trying to win?

Why?
 
Do you think they are taking CJ baller? I did...but not anymore. Of course - contingent on the Panthers taking Bryce. I think it's universally accepted that if Bryce is there at 1.2, he's the pick.
Porky I believe they will draft whoever is available. But if they decide to go with Will, I will be all in.

Like I said one person started that nonsense and the rest of the lazy journalist are just regurgitating.
 
I think it’s time for the fan base to accept that it isn’t CJ. There is now so much smoke, I’m about to die of inhalation.

If they were sold on CJ they wouldn’t be making proactive calls. I trust Lance on this. Put that together with a giant list of other breadcrumbs left over the past couple of weeks, and it’s painfully obvious they aren’t taking CJ.

If Bryce falls to them, they are taking him. If he isn’t, which is likely, I think they want out if they can get a reasonable offer. If not, it’s probably Anderson, but I could see them taking a huge swing on Richardson or Levis, or upsetting the apple cart by going Tyree Wilson.

Not that it matters, but in terms of pass rush, I have Tyree Wilson above Anderson. I do think Anderson is the more polished, more well rounded player. I’d take Anderson, but wouldn’t be upset by Wilson either.
Funny. By shopping the pick it tells me they couldn’t care less who the Panthers pick.

If it were me & we all know it ain’t, I’d target Levis at 12. If he’s there the Texans are getting a new QB. If not, they’re not.

I’m not drafting any of these guys in the top 10.
 
Random draft thoughts:


1-just as Kubiak promised to improve Carr to get a job here, did slowik promise to fix Mills? "Mills has more talent then Purdy. Look what we pulled off. Our system can make any qb top half or better in the league..." And in a worst "case" scenario, there's Case ;) . Matt Ryan, Bridgwater, and Wentz are all still available.

2-Are the Texans gauging cj's value and tanking him because they don't want him with the #2 pick, they think he might still be there with the #12 pick?


Thanks. I'll hang up and listen...
 
Random draft thoughts:


1-just as Kubiak promised to improve Carr to get a job here, did slowik promise to fix Mills? "Mills has more talent then Purdy. Look what we pulled off. Our system can make any qb top half or better in the league..." And in a worst "case" scenario, there's Case ;) . Matt Ryan, Bridgwater, and Wentz are all still available.

2-Are the Texans gauging cj's value and tanking him because they don't want him with the #2 pick, they think he might still be there with the #12 pick?


Thanks. I'll hang up and listen...
I think they are okay with 1 or 2 honestly. If they trade back and picked up picks and Tyree or Anderson are gone, but AR15, Stroud, or Levis are there they might grab one. I also think they are okay trading back and getting Tyree or Anderson and not drafting a QB this year. If they stay at 2 and Bryce is gone and they don't have a good trade back offer I think they will draft Anderson/Tyree.

My belief, with nothing to back this up, is they want to trade out of two, be able to pick up Anderson/Tyree or one of the top 3 QBs left. They all have larger flaws than Bryce. I think their flaws are equal, but different. QBs are a bigger crap shoot than any other position.
 
While I agree about needing a good QB you can't ignore the defense's impact on a team.

Here is a comparison on the Chiefs 2018 & 2019 seasons

Statistically Mahomes was a better QB in 2018 than in 2019.

2018: 12-4 Record, 383-580 66.0% 5097 Yards, 50 TDs, started 16 games avg 3.1 TDs per game, Point Differential 565-421 = +144, Lost AFCCG

2019:
12-4 Record, 319-484 65.9% 4031 Yards, 26 TDs, started 14 games avg 1.8 TDs per game, Point Differential 451-308 = +143, SB Winner

He threw 24 more Tds in 2018. Some of this may be due to his injury in 2019 but he averaged 3.1 Tds per game in 2018 & 1.8 Tds per game in 2019. The Chiefs scored 114 more points in 2018 than 2019.

Yet the Chiefs finished with the same record both years & only outscored their opponents by 1 point more in 2018.

This is because their defense played much better in 2019 (at least in points allowed per game).

In 2018 the Chiefs were 25th in points allowed per game (24.8).
In 2019 the Chiefs were 7th in points allowed per game (18.5).

Like the old saying goes 'defense wins championships' & football is a team sport.

And they were in the AFC Championship Game in '18. And Mahomes was still a top tier QB both of those seasons. And the KC defense was 16th in points allowed this past season and they still won the SB. So you kinda made my point.

Of course it's a team sport. No one can do it on their own. And anyone can put together an individual season if everything falls the right way. But you won't be consistently in the mix like that. If you want to contend on a consistent basis, you need a top end QB.

Peyton had the Colts in the mix damn near every year he was in the league. The second he was out, the Colts sucked. So much so they lucked into Luck. Granted, he only won 1 SB with them. Rodgers only won 1 SB, Brees, etc, but that just shows you it's hard to win in the playoffs. Those are all good teams. But you don't have the chance to win if you're not there, and those teams were there year in and year out.

The Jets had a nice 2 year run with Butt Fumble at QB because of a great supporting cast. That didn't last very long because it's harder to maintain that. There's way too much player movement. And look at the Jets. They put something together every so often that will last maybe a year or 2, then it's back to the doldrums. Because they don't have that top end QB. Haven't probably since Namath. The Bills have pretty much been a nothing burger in their time between Kelly and Allen.

You've gotta have a QB. Not saying you're guaranteed Lombardi's if you do, but you'll be a team that maybe has thing's fall the right way on occasion, but mostly middling to bad if you don't.
 
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