CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
The Texans have the 5th most difficult schedule in the NFL. Our 1st game is against the team with THE most difficult schedule.........the Chief. (Although the official schedule has not been released yet, I am hearing that it will be a home game.)
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2022 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season
BY SHARP FOOTBALL STAFF|MAY 11, 2022
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Ranked by Team
Ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2022 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team:
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization
While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.
Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.
How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?
Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.
Short answer: YES
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2021 Actuals
Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2021) versus projected 2022 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.
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2022 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season
BY SHARP FOOTBALL STAFF|MAY 11, 2022
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Ranked by Team
Ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2022 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team:
| RANK | TEAM | PROJECTED WIN TOTAL | CURRENT LINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 7.0 | 7 -110 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8.4 | 8.5 +100 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 9.5 | 9.5 -110 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6.8 | 7 +110 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 6.1 | 6 -115 |
| 6 | Washington Commanders | 7.4 | 7.5 +100 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 | 11.5 -110 |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | 10.0 | 10 -110 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 7.8 | 7.5 -140 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 10.5 | 10.5 -105 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | 9.7 | 9.5 -125 |
| 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.4 | 6.5 100 |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 10.1 | 10 -115 |
| 14 | Carolina Panthers | 6.0 | 6 -110 |
| 15 | Green Bay Packers | 11.2 | 11 -125 |
| 16 | Minnesota Vikings | 9.0 | 9 -110 |
| 17 | Denver Broncos | 10.2 | 10 -125 |
| 18 | Buffalo Bills | 11.8 | 11.5 -135 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | 9.0 | 9 -110 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10.1 | 10 -120 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | 9.5 -110 |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | 6.4 | 6.5 -105 |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 5.0 | 5 -110 |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals | 9.0 | 9 -110 |
| 25 | New England Patriots | 8.7 | 8.5 -125 |
| 26 | Cincinnati Bengals | 9.8 | 10 +110 |
| 27 | New York Jets | 5.5 | 5.5 -105 |
| 28 | Houston Texans | 4.5 | 4.5 -105 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.6 | 7.5 -120 |
| 30 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 | 8.5 -110 |
| 31 | Los Angeles Rams | 10.6 | 10.5 -115 |
| 32 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10.7 | 11 +125 |
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization
While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2022 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.
Here is a visual breakdown of 2022 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.
How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?
Last season (2021), the Top 8 teams with the most difficult schedule were: Raiders, Texans, Chiefs, Lions, Steelers, Cardinals, Giants & Commanders.
- Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted all of them would have Top 8 toughest schedules except the Chiefs (#20).
- Warren Sharp’s 2021 NFL Strength of Schedule methodology correctly forecasted that 6 of these Top 7 teams would rank inside the Top 10 easiest schedules (only the Bengals did not).
Short answer: YES
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the hardest 2021 schedules, only 3 went over their projected win total: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders
- Of the 10 NFL teams that actually had the easiest 2021 schedules, only 3 went under their projected win total: Bills, Broncos, Browns
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2021 Actuals
Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2021) versus projected 2022 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.
| TEAM | 2022 SOS | 2021 ACTUAL SOS | IMPROVEMENT |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 1 | 31 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 24 | 4 |
| Detroit Lions | 5 | 28 | 3 |
| Washington Commanders | 6 | 32 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 2 | 20 |
| Cleveland Browns | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| New Orleans Saints | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | 23 | 5 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 21 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 14 | 19 | 10 |
| Green Bay Packers | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 22 | 8 |
| Denver Broncos | 17 | 4 | 27 |
| Buffalo Bills | 18 | 1 | 30 |
| Miami Dolphins | 19 | 6 | 27 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 20 | 18 | 17 |
| Tennessee Titans | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 22 | 12 | 25 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23 | 13 | 25 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 24 | 30 | 8 |
| New England Patriots | 25 | 8 | 30 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26 | 3 | 32 |
| New York Jets | 27 | 20 | 24 |
| Houston Texans | 28 | 26 | 17 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 | 29 | 15 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 30 | 25 | 20 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 31 | 17 | 29 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 27 | 20 |
for this team - not 
