2020 Quarterback Tiers: 50 coaches and evaluators rank the NFL starters
Pretty fun annual exercise.
I'm inclined, based on the tier definitions, to rank Deshaun, at the moment, at the highest end of tier 2. It fits him almost too a T in my opinion. Hope he can really solidify himself as a lock solid tier 1 this season.
Fifty NFL coaches and evaluators rated 35 veteran quarterbacks this year while providing candid evaluations that appear in the analysis below. The process was simple. Coaches and evaluators placed each quarterback in one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Once ballots were collected, results were averaged to create a ranking. Our unanimous Tier 1 choices averaged 1.00, while the lowest-rated player averaged 4.30. Quarterbacks fell into the tiers in which they received the most votes.
TIER 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Russell Wilson
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Drew Brees
5. Deshaun Watson
Tier 1 votes: 28 | Tier 2 votes: 22 | 2019 Tier: 2
The average tier vote for Watson improved from 2.27 last year to 1.44 this year, the second-largest improvement in the survey. Only the Ravens’ Jackson made a larger jump. Voters thought Watson lagged behind the other Tier 1 quarterbacks in the finer points of the dropback passing game, but their respect for his ability to drive success with relatively little perceived support proved compelling, amid fears Watson could suffer from DeAndre Hopkins’ departure.
"The Buffalo game won me over,” an exec said of the Texans’ comeback from a 16-0 deficit to beat the Bills in the playoffs. “Watson gets everyone to believe in the face of certain peril. He makes the plays he needs to. This year will be a good test for him with a new cast.”
Led by Watson, the 2019 Texans were the only team to finish .500 or better while ranking 20th or lower in defensive EPA. Houston was 10-6.
“I look at the way the team wins,” a personnel director said. “Is it true complementary ball? Is it heavy run game? Does the quarterback rely on play-action? Is it stingy defense that allows them to have additional possessions? And then look at their supporting cast. When I think of the ones, I can put you into any roster and I know you are going to have a high level of success. I think with Deshaun Watson, there is a lot of, he wins in spite of his cast.”
A defensive coach who had questions about Watson came away impressed after watching hundreds of Houston plays on video this offseason. This coach cited a Tier 1 decision against Baltimore where Watson recognized the coverage, dropped down and threw under an oncoming rusher instead of throwing over the top, which would have risked a pick-six interception. The throw from Watson missed its target, but Watson knew exactly what to do.
“Smart by Watson because he knows it’s zone coverage,” the coach said. “The Tier 1 guy does the same thing but drops down and throws it accurately under the defender’s arm, all wrist.”
Multiple coaches wanted to see Houston add more wrinkles to its offense as Watson develops.
“Playing him, you fear him running, but you don’t fear him as a passer, and his running was not like Lamar Jackson,” a defensive coordinator said. “It was drop back, not there, take off and run. We never thought he was going to dice us up for 300 yards. I look at ones as guys that you feel like, ‘We better have some **** for this guy, we’d better manipulate our coverages, we’d better do this, we’d better do that.”
Other voters overruled these objections.
"He shredded New England on that Sunday night game,” a GM said. “In the playoffs, Buffalo’s defense was playing lights out with a great game plan, but really talented players at some point figure some things out along the way, and Watson started finding some things. I don’t think there are a lot of other quarterbacks down 16-0 the way Buffalo’s defense was playing that would have brought that team back.”
TIER 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
6. Tom Brady
7. Lamar Jackson
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Stafford
10. Matt Ryan
11. Carson Wentz
12. Dak Prescott
13. Philip Rivers
TIER 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
14. Kyler Murray
15. Kirk Cousins
16. Jared Goff
17. Jimmy Garoppolo
18. Ryan Tannehill
19. Cam Newton
20. Derek Carr
21. Baker Mayfield
22. Josh Allen
23. Teddy Bridgewater
24. Sam Darnold
25. Daniel Jones
26. Nick Foles
TIER 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.
27. Marcus Mariota
28. Ryan Fitzpatrick
29. Tyrod Taylor
30. Drew Lock
31. Gardner Minshew
32. Mitch Trubisky
33. Dwayne Haskins
34. Jarrett Stidham
35. Kyle Allen
Pretty fun annual exercise.
I'm inclined, based on the tier definitions, to rank Deshaun, at the moment, at the highest end of tier 2. It fits him almost too a T in my opinion. Hope he can really solidify himself as a lock solid tier 1 this season.