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12%, err 2%

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
FWIW the way they calculate those odds is dumb. It should be simply the number of scenarios that have the Texans winning over the number of total possible outcomes. I don't know how many teams have wound up 0-3 but unless I'm just being careless there are 2^208 possible outcomes after everyone has played 3 games (for the team to be 0-3). Of all of those possibilities there are a certain amount that result in the Texans making the playoffs. Sure you can weigh team strength to try and get something slightly more precise or something but just looking at how teams have done in the past is way too small a sample size. It is like trying to determine the chances you have of winning the lottery because you picked the number 10 by looking back to see how well people who have picked 10 in the past have done.
The way they calculate it is counting all the teams that have started 0-3. Then of those teams, counting how many made the playoffs. Pretty easy to figure. No need to go all Dr. Strange. Doesn't matter the thousand variables and scenarios. X number of teams have started 0-3, Y number of those teams made the playoffs.
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
The way they calculate it is counting all the teams that have started 0-3. Then of those teams, counting how many made the playoffs. Pretty easy to figure. No need to go all Dr. Strange. Doesn't matter the thousand variables and scenarios. X number of teams have started 0-3, Y number of those teams made the playoffs.
That's not an accurate probability though, which is my point.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
That's not an accurate probability though, which is my point.
Yes, the probability of the 0-3 Texans making the playoffs is whatever it is. But that's not what the 12%, 2%, whatever, is about. Those numbers are about the number of 0-3 teams vs. the number of them to play Janaury ball.

I actually think the probability of the Texans making the playoffs is pretty good. Not a team on their schedule the rest of the way they can't beat. But if they do make it, whatever that probability is, will just add to the X number of 0-3 teams making the Y number of playoffs.
 

Texanmike02

Hall of Fame
Yes, the probability of the 0-3 Texans making the playoffs is whatever it is. But that's not what the 12%, 2%, whatever, is about. Those numbers are about the number of 0-3 teams vs. the number of them to play Janaury ball.

I actually think the probability of the Texans making the playoffs is pretty good. Not a team on their schedule the rest of the way they can't beat. But if they do make it, whatever that probability is, will just add to the X number of 0-3 teams making the Y number of playoffs.
I know, I just get annoyed when the announcer says probability.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Making the playoffs one thing

Winning in the playoffs another

Whats the goal here

Division crowns and one and outs in the playoffs gonna keep OB employed for a long time
I'd respect McNair a lot more for firing O'Brien after another play off embarrassment than for barely missing the play offs, or having the worst record in the league. It would show the bar has been raised.

Firing a guy because his team sucks... you're left with a team that sucks. Firing a guy because he underachieved as a headcaoch, then at least you've got a good team (or a delusional owner)
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
FWIW the way they calculate those odds is dumb. It should be simply the number of scenarios that have the Texans winning over the number of total possible outcomes. I don't know how many teams have wound up 0-3 but unless I'm just being careless there are 2^208 possible outcomes after everyone has played 3 games (for the team to be 0-3). Of all of those possibilities there are a certain amount that result in the Texans making the playoffs. Sure you can weigh team strength to try and get something slightly more precise or something but just looking at how teams have done in the past is way too small a sample size. It is like trying to determine the chances you have of winning the lottery because you picked the number 10 by looking back to see how well people who have picked 10 in the past have done.
Good Will Hunting appears on the TT MB.

Thx
 

Shishkabob

All Pro
64%

When this thread first started, I thought what a great "beating the odds" thread it would make. I hope we follow it all the way to 100.

FWIW - for the first time we are favored to win the division (55%) and on the radar to win the SB at 1%. ;-)

What a difference a month makes..
I think before this week even started Vegas moved our SB odds to 25-1 which I think was tied with the 3rd best odds in the AFC.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator
Staff member
Contributor's Club
what is the percentage for teams that lead their division by 1 game at the end of the first 8 games (half season) (and what about leading by 2 games)
According to the media, a 4-3 team has a 61% chance to make the postseason. Obviously, it's even better odds for a 5-3 team (not to mention in a crappy division).

I don't put a lot of stock in percentages, but the media does and I was rather pessimistic in disappointment when I created this thread.

Much respect to this entire team for not cratering and turning on themselves. Five game streak is always awesome, especially when it means something in the middle of a season.

They are very entertaining, and that's all I can ask for. :)
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
According to the media, a 4-3 team has a 61% chance to make the postseason. Obviously, it's even better odds for a 5-3 team (not to mention in a crappy division).

I don't put a lot of stock in percentages, but the media does and I was rather pessimistic in disappointment when I created this thread.

Much respect to this entire team for not cratering and turning on themselves. Five game streak is always awesome, especially when it means something in the middle of a season.

They are very entertaining, and that's all I can ask for. :)
So you're saying the team didn't quit on BOB?
 

Uncle Rico

Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Interesting it's a little more than a coin flip we win our division according to 538.

Let's keep rubbing our rabbits feet, picking 4 leaf clovers, knocking on wood, praying to Jobu .. whatever has been working so far. Better to be lucky than good right?
 

TD

Super Bowl Mascot
Interesting it's a little more than a coin flip we win our division according to 538.

Let's keep rubbing our rabbits feet, picking 4 leaf clovers, knocking on wood, praying to Jobu .. whatever has been working so far. Better to be lucky than good right?
Titans upset win changed things. My bad for picking Dallas in survivor. :-(
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I think they nailed it, talent vs leadership of each kid. Both teams are blessed for years to come. Talent around Mahommes and coaching are huge advantage. Would be good to get there talent wise as BOB will always be a deficit coaching vs Andy

Seems a lot of agreement Houston can gel and is well prepared to play our ball in January, and no comparison on level of defense between us and KC. Raised a lot of good and balanced points, worth the watch
 

paycheck71

Hall of Fame
He needs to get his facts straight. He didn't "tear up his knee again". It was the other knee. Such a basic fact that it's tough to take anything else he says seriously.

I respect Mahomes, but still want to see how he responds to adversity. Watson has been responding to it like a man.
I also want to see Mahomes in year 2. DW was basicallly putting up Mahomes numbers last year. And I want to see what Watson can do with an average O-line and Fuller back.
 

steelbtexan

Hall of Fame
I think they nailed it, talent vs leadership of each kid. Both teams are blessed for years to come. Talent around Mahommes and coaching are huge advantage. Would be good to get there talent wise as BOB will always be a deficit coaching vs Andy

Seems a lot of agreement Houston can gel and is well prepared to play our ball in January, and no comparison on level of defense between us and KC. Raised a lot of good and balanced points, worth the watch
Have you seen Andy in the playoffs?

Take a look at last yrs Chiefs/Tacks game.
 

thunderkyss

It's good to be me... again.
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I also want to see Mahomes in year 2. DW was basicallly putting up Mahomes numbers last year. And I want to see what Watson can do with an average O-line and Fuller back.
Mmmmm.... I don't know. Watson was basically playing street ball. Just making stuff happen.

Mahomes is running a pretty complex offense. Sure there's a lot of half field stuff, but he's doing plenty under Center & from the pocket.

I'd like to see him year two as well. I'm just saying his rookie season is quite a bit different than Watson's.

He's got a lot more help than Watson did too. Ried, Hill, Hunt, Kelce.... Ried. & a good defense .
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
Texans win the AFC South with a win over the Colts on Sunday. Has that been mentioned anywhere?
 

TD

Super Bowl Mascot
I ran the ESPN playoff machine with the Titans winning out and the Texans only beating the Colts. Both finish 10-6, but the Texans win on a best conference record tiebreaker.
What about common games? They beat NE and if they win out, the Giants. Too much math for me, but I think that would give them the division before conference record.
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
What about common games? They beat NE and if they win out, the Giants. Too much math for me, but I think that would give them the division before conference record.
Right, the playoff machine screwed that up.



Good reason to watch the TNF game and root for the Jags.
 

ArlingtonTexan

Moderator
Staff member
96%

Loss didn't change much...especially with the Pats upset.
(Yes I am triple posting this)

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-4) (at New York Jets (4-9), Saturday, 4:30 PM ET, NFL Network)

Houston clinches AFC South division title with:

1) HOU win + IND loss or tie + TEN loss or tie OR

2) HOU tie + IND loss + TEN loss

Houston clinches a playoff berth with:

1) HOU win + MIA loss or tie + PIT loss OR

2) HOU win + MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

3) HOU tie + IND loss or tie + BAL loss + MIA loss OR

4) HOU tie + IND loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL loss + MIA tie OR

5) HOU tie + IND loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL win + MIA loss OR

6) HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + BAL loss + MIA loss OR

7) HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL loss + MIA tie OR

8) HOU tie + TEN loss or tie + PIT loss + BAL win + MIA loss

---------------------------------------------------------------
 


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