Former Yeller Dweller
The way they calculate it is counting all the teams that have started 0-3. Then of those teams, counting how many made the playoffs. Pretty easy to figure. No need to go all Dr. Strange. Doesn't matter the thousand variables and scenarios. X number of teams have started 0-3, Y number of those teams made the playoffs.FWIW the way they calculate those odds is dumb. It should be simply the number of scenarios that have the Texans winning over the number of total possible outcomes. I don't know how many teams have wound up 0-3 but unless I'm just being careless there are 2^208 possible outcomes after everyone has played 3 games (for the team to be 0-3). Of all of those possibilities there are a certain amount that result in the Texans making the playoffs. Sure you can weigh team strength to try and get something slightly more precise or something but just looking at how teams have done in the past is way too small a sample size. It is like trying to determine the chances you have of winning the lottery because you picked the number 10 by looking back to see how well people who have picked 10 in the past have done.