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12%, err 2%

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
12% is the chance that the Texans have to make the playoffs this season. That's the average for all NFL teams according to the announcers of today's game. (It's less than a 3% chance for 0-3 teams, so that makes next week's game a MUST WIN against the Giants.)

:overreact:YIPEEEE!

Now, some from the optimistic perspective (i.e. Sunshine Pumpers), will give you this:



And those from the negative perspective (i.e. Doom & Gloomers) will be told "not to panic", "it's a long season", and some other platitudes to keep them from going off the deep end.

My take as someone that tries to have more of an objective and pragmatic perception is that both sides sorta' have a point.

That said, while I don't want to stick a fork in it with 14 games left in the season, I also do not suggest pumping a lot of hope and expectations into the Bill O'Brien 2018 Texans.

12% is, after all, cold fact. :bubble:

btw, wtf is up with the back-to-back screens toward the end of the 4th? 3rd & 8 as a result?! Shining example of the uninspired and unimaginative schemes currently being implemented by O'Brien. And the defense should be embarrassed about letting Blaine freakin' Gabbert beat them. Seriously. And I'd mention special teams if they existed.

So yeah, let's have fun with a MUST WIN game just two weeks into the NFL season. :texflag::thud:
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
(It's less than a 3% chance for 0-3 teams, so that makes next week's game a MUST WIN against the Giants.)

:overreact:YIPEEEE!


So yeah, let's have fun with a MUST WIN game just two weeks into the NFL season. :texflag::thud:
It's a must win, as far as I'm concerned since we've already lost a division game, the Jags are 2-0, & they've already beat common opponents in the Patriots & the Giants. We lose to the Giants & sweeping the Jags won't help as much to win the division.
 

Speedy

Yeller Dweller
I don't give a flying pink rat's ass about the sunshine & rainbows or doom & gloom crowds. What I care about is a football team that doesn't embarrass themselves every fucking time they take the field. Being bad is one thing, being a laughingstock like this franchise is, is unacceptable.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Good to see you back around TK... sucks it's for such a sucky time in the life of a Texans fan, but maybe it's habitual now hey?
Yep, it's great to see TK around again.

This org made a decision back in 2010 which has lead in some shape of form to the issues that exist today. it all comes down from the top. # cultural thing instilled by the McNair's.
 

badboy

Hall of Fame
I'm anticipating just enough ..er..something to offer hope. Watt goes on a tear and gets three sacks in the game and we still lose or Watson throws for 350 and we lose. Just enough sticky that I cannot turn loose. Has the need for a backup QB in 2019 increased? Dang the two guys I thought would be lousy Lamar Miller and Tyler Erwin are doing good.
 

Bulls on Parade

2017 Astros: Earn It!
Not beating the giants. Might as well make a 3% chance thread in advance.
Don't the Giants suck also? They lost to the Cowboys.

The Texans and Giants are both 0-2.
Going to be an interesting game...

It's our home opener. Slight advantage to the Texans.

I'm not too worried one way or another. Win and I'm happy.
Lose and we're in the driver's seat for a great draft pick in 2019.
 

Bulls on Parade

2017 Astros: Earn It!
By the way, I kept a close eye on Nate Solder last night. He actually played okay despite the Giants losing and dropping to 0-2. Their offensive line as a unit did yield six sacks on Eli Manning. So it's not like the Giants O-Line is all that good. Their right tackle is struggling. Their entire right side looks weak.

I didn't see anything great about Nate Solder last night, just a good and solid player. For a first team Big 12 player in 2009 and 2010 he never became an All Pro or even Pro Bowler at the NFL level.

But for four years and $62 million (nearly $35 million guaranteed), I don't know if it would have been wise for the Texans to invest that much money on him. I'm kind of glad the Giants signed him.

Although we lost by 7 points and 3 points to the Patriots and Titans on the road. Both one score games. Would a good Left Tackle have provided an extra scoring drive or two for us to win those games?

We're going to have a ton of cap space next off-season. The 0-2 Texans and 0-2 Giants. The Texans have the brighter future, IMO. The younger franchise quarterback with more financial flexibility.

I think the Texans will beat the Giants on Sunday.
Our defense should sack Eli Manning 7 or 8 times...

I know steelb wanted us to sign Nate Solder last off-season.
I'd have welcomed the addition but he's not that vital to the Giants.
They still suck like we do. They still give up a ton of sacks as a unit.

On the other hand, you can make a case that Nate Soldier on the Texans would have been more impactful. Like I said, maybe we generate a few extra scoring drives to pull out those one-score losses on the road in Week 1 and Week 2.
 

OptimisticTexan

Go Texans!!!
Don't the Giants suck also? They lost to the Cowboys.

The Texans and Giants are both 0-2.
Going to be an interesting game...

It's our home opener. Slight advantage to the Texans.

I'm not too worried one way or another. Win and I'm happy.
Lose and we're in the driver's seat for a great draft pick in 2019.
Well, who has the more formidable pile of shite? Someone's pile is going to stink a lot worse after next Sunday.
 

Bulls on Parade

2017 Astros: Earn It!
Well, who has the more formidable pile of shite? Someone's pile is going to stink a lot worse after next Sunday.
I like our chances to win our home opener.
So it looks like the Giants will start off 0-3.
Especially if they play like they did last night at Arlington.

The Texans have lost two road games by one score.
I'll start to panic if we get blown out or lose at home.
 

banned1976

Fire Bill O’Brien, maybe?
I like our chances to win our home opener.
So it looks like the Giants will start off 0-3.
Especially if they play like they did last night at Arlington.

The Texans have lost two road games by one score.
I'll start to panic if we get blown out or lose at home.
Really bad Texans seasons begin with either close loses or close wins.

My thoughts on upcoming games now turns to, out of the 2 teams, Texans and some other team, which coaching staff is better. I honestly feel, and I’m not exaggerating, any HC that loses to O’Brien, that HC is instantly vaulted up the next head coach to lose his job watch. His doomsday clock is moved up 30 minutes.

Pat Shurmur is up next.
 

Bulls on Parade

2017 Astros: Earn It!
While ultimately the numbers are always right, the fan in me is saying "it's too early, alot can happen".
I'm okay being patient with the Texans if it means having a high draft pick. I know our offensive line needs some work. If the Houston Astros repeat as 2018 World Series champions that's enough to satisfy me as a Houston sports fan.

And the 2018 MLB Playoffs start in a few weeks!
So a couple of championships will make me feel better.

I have all the patience in the world with the Texans and Rockets. And the Rockets were a half away, not once but twice, from going to the NBA Finals this past year. They likely win it all if Chris Paul doesn't get hurt.

The bottom line is the Houston Texans can't disappoint me.
I already feel excited and blessed as a Houston sports fan.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
It's such a freakin' let down after looking forward to football season for six+ months. I honestly thought this year's team would come out of the gate and at least be competitive.

And while I always try to temper my expectations, I thought there was a chance that O'Brien would actually improve on what he did with Watson in 2017.

Sadly, it seems like this team is going the opposite direction than anything any of us hoped for and/or expected.

And it feels like déjà vu and beating a dead horse all over again.

It makes me want to avoid even talking about football. 12%. . .jeesh. . . :gun:
 

DBCooper

Outlaw
Contributor's Club
It's such a freakin' let down after looking forward to football season for six+ months. I honestly thought this year's team would come out of the gate and at least be competitive.

And while I always try to temper my expectations, I thought there was a chance that O'Brien would actually improve on what he did with Watson in 2017.

Sadly, it seems like this team is going the opposite direction than anything any of us hoped for and/or expected.

And it feels like déjà vu and beating a dead horse all over again.

It makes me want to avoid even talking about football. 12%. . .jeesh. . . :gun:
Hey next week you may be talking about 3%!
 

Chance_C

All Pro
Don't the Giants suck also? They lost to the Cowboys.

The Texans and Giants are both 0-2.
Going to be an interesting game...

It's our home opener. Slight advantage to the Texans.

I'm not too worried one way or another. Win and I'm happy.
Lose and we're in the driver's seat for a great draft pick in 2019.
There is never an advantage to the Texans. Wish I could turn my fandom off (well I really don't) but I can't. Was starved for a team when the oilers left and still starved for a team. Bob McNair needs to grow a set and clean house. I guarantee you that Kubiak could get more out of this offense than that meat headed Botox needing **** stick that we have "leading" us. So sick of that blowhard. Yeah Watson needs some seasoning but Botox chin ain't the one to do it. And Clowney? Love him when he's own but my god if you are gonna effect the game negatively and not even suit up stay in the damn locker room
 

Hervoyel

BUENO!
I don't give a flying pink rat's ass about the sunshine & rainbows or doom & gloom crowds. What I care about is a football team that doesn't embarrass themselves every fucking time they take the field. Being bad is one thing, being a laughingstock like this franchise is, is unacceptable.
A football team that doesn’t embarrass itself every year?

You’ve come to the wrong place but Bob McNair hopes you had a fun, family-friendly time though
 

DocBar

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
I guess it's a blessing for me to have an interest in several teams this year. It's really kept me on an even keel regarding the Texans. I'm pulling for them, but I'm more "meh" about the outcome than anything else. Heck, I was ho-hum when they took a lead in the 4th quarter last week. On paper, the Texans should've won. Even the game stats say that. Unfortunately, the game is not played on paper.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
While ultimately the numbers are always right, the fan in me is saying "it's too early, alot can happen".
Understandable. It's a battle between the heart and mind. The mind is analytical, without emotion, and sees the 11-12% chance for the long shot that it is. But the heart. . well, the heart is always soft, emotional, and seems to be the eternal opmistic that also hopes on the small sliver of a chance, which is what eventually keeps us coming back for more every season.
 

eriadoc

Texan-American
I think the Texans will beat the Giants on Sunday.
Our defense should sack Eli Manning 7 or 8 times...
Who is going to do that? Mercilus? Clowney? Watt? Maybe Watt gets one. Eijofor might get one. 7 or 8? If the pass rush was as good as the names on the jerseys, they would have racked up those sacks against the Tacks. The team's defensive stars are overrated - Watt due to injury, Clowney due to just being what he is, which is not a sack guy, and Mercilus due to some hype.

I don't have a lot of optimism about the defense racking up 7 or 8 sacks LOL.
 

Double Barrel

Moderator / Admin
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Who is going to do that? Mercilus? Clowney? Watt? Maybe Watt gets one. Eijofor might get one. 7 or 8? If the pass rush was as good as the names on the jerseys, they would have racked up those sacks against the Tacks. The team's defensive stars are overrated - Watt due to injury, Clowney due to just being what he is, which is not a sack guy, and Mercilus due to some hype.

I don't have a lot of optimism about the defense racking up 7 or 8 sacks LOL.
I agree. And they will probably go bonehead in the off-season and give the King of Overrated the biggest defensive contract in NFL history instead of using those finite resources to build an offensive line that can actually protect the potential star QB.

Here's some more 12% fun:

Analysis: If your favorite NFL team is 0-2, it's doomed

Slow starts in the NFL can have disastrous consequences. Since the league expanded its playoff field to 12 teams in 1990, just 28 out of 223 teams (13 percent) during that time have recovered from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. Since 2002, when the league expanded and reorganized into eight divisions, the rate of teams making the playoffs after a 0-2 start is even lower (14 out of 133 teams, 11 percent). And overall, teams starting 0-2 average less than six wins over the course of the season, with almost two-thirds (61 percent) of those teams winning six games or fewer.

That's not an encouraging sign for the Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, because after Week 2, each team has less than a five percent chance at making the playoffs.

Full article
From the above article:

Houston Texans, projected 6-10 record in 2018

Houston's starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, was an MVP candidate in 2017 before a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee cut his season short. Before the injury Watson was the most valuable passer per ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating (83.5 QBR), meaning his performance was good enough for the team to win better than 83 percent of the games he played in. In 2018 he ranks 23rd with a QBR of 44.0.

J.J. Watt has returned to the team; the 2012 defensive player of the year has been credited with six total pressures and five stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, making him the sixth highest-rated defensive end in the NFL.
Does O'Brien keep his job with a 6-10 record?

I'd venture to say "you betcha'". :handshake: :headhurts:
 

HouTx11

Rookie
I actually think that 6-10 is too optimistic. I could see this team go 1-15, depending on injuries, bad breaks in games, etc... The Cleveland game is about the only game at this point that I feel even near confident that the Texans could win.
 

Rich Schmidt

Myopicone
I actually think that 6-10 is too optimistic. I could see this team go 1-15, depending on injuries, bad breaks in games, etc... The Cleveland game is about the only game at this point that I feel even near confident that the Texans could win.
buffalo looks beatable, 2 wins, yummy
 

zshawn10

All Pro
Barnwell: Ranking NFL's 0-2 teams from eliminated to (barely) alive

1. Houston Texans
Preseason playoff odds: 45.0 percent
Current playoff odds: 24.4 percent

I think the Texans are still, quite comfortably, best-positioned to make a run back toward the top of the AFC South. Their two losses came by a total of 10 points, and one of them was on the road against the Patriots. Their loss to the Titans was far more vexing given that it came against Blaine Gabbert and a pair of backup tackles, and indeed, it involved a fake punt for a touchdown, some Wildcat from Derrick Henry, and a long drive with a deliberate double forward pass from Gabbert.

Houston’s success this season seems likely to be predicated on both sides of the pass rush. On defense, the early returns are a little underwhelming. The trio of Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt have combined for zero sacks, with Houston’s three sacks coming from the unlikely duo of D.J. Reader and Duke Ejiofor. Clowney missed the Titans game with back and elbow injuries, but Watt’s two knockdowns in the opener remain the only example of these three hitting the quarterback in 2018. The Texans are tied for 20th in pressure rate, and when they don’t bother the opposing quarterback, Brady and Gabbert have combined to post a passer rating of 125.3, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league through two weeks.

On the other side of the line, a patchwork offensive line has already gotten thinner with the injury to Seantrel Henderson. Watson has been pressured on an unreal 48.8 percent of dropbacks so far this season, which blows away even the Russell Wilsons of the world. Nobody else in the league is above 40.4 percent, and the league average for pressure rate is 27.8 percent. Watson is averaging 8.3 yards per dropback when unpressured and 4.7 yards per play when the opposing team gets on him.

The hope, of course, is that Watson continues to get his legs underneath him and improve as he returns from his torn ACL. His receivers haven’t given him much help. During the rookie’s incredible seven-game run in 2017, Texans receivers dropped just 1.1 percent of Watson’s passes and averaged 5.6 yards after catch, the latter of which was good for 10th in the league. This year, Watson’s receivers have dropped 4.5 percent of his throws while generating a league-low average of 3.3 yards after their catches. Watson is only 1-of-11 on throws to his tight ends after completing 58.3 percent of his throws to Ryan Griffin & Co. a year ago.

Yet again, this is another team with a crucial month ahead. Three of Houston’s next four games are at home after starting with a pair of road matchups. All four games are winnable, given that the Texans will host the Giants, Cowboys and Bills while traveling to play the Colts. Mixed in with a brutal trip to Jacksonville before the bye are games against the Dolphins and Broncos. The Texans have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

It’s an advantage I think they should be able to leverage into a competitive season, and while the Jaguars look to be riding high with their win over the Patriots, nine wins might be enough to win a wild-card spot in this conference. If I had to pick one 0-2 team to buck the trend and play football this January, I’d go with Houston.
 


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