Will the Texans make the playoffs in 2024?

[thunderkyss]

This is from a 2010 article.

According to Mike Florio of NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk.com, half is the norm . But after looking back over the last decade or so, I found that half is actually higher than average.
Since the 2001 NFL playoffs (those that took place after the 2000 regular season), an average of 5.6 teams per postseason were in the playoffs the year prior. That amounts to a 46.9 percent turnover.
Three times—2001-2002, 2007-2008, 2009-2010—the turnover of playoff teams from one year to the next was six (50 percent). Three times—2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2008-2009—the turnover was five (41.7 percent). Once—2003-2004—the turnover of playoff teams was four (33 percent).

Twice since the 2001 NFL playoffs there have been turnovers over 50 percent. Seven teams repeated playoff appearances from 2002 to 2003 and from 2004 to 2005 (58.3 percent).
Pro football has also had plenty of one-year wonders—playoff teams that did not qualify the year before and do not the year after.
During the last nine NFL postseasons, there have been 27 one-year wonders out of a possible 84—32.1 percent. (There are only 84 possible teams because no playoffs exist after 2010 and none are being measured before 2002. Therefore, 2003-2009 are the only years of the study with possible one-year wonders.)

I also found this graphic on Redit

Most years appear to be just under 60% return with the eyeball, but if you do the math I believe it works out closer to 50%

We have Cj S2roud, that should help. Hopefully we don't lose Bobby Slowick, I think that will be a heck of a hurdle to overcome, but if anyone can do it, it's S2roud. Then we'll probably add a high-dollar FA or two & that could affect the locker room chemistry. Who knows. They have their work cut out for them, hopefully the dysfunction doesn't return. Right?

 

[Mollywhopper]

Yes.

 

[welsh texan]

There is an extra playoff team per conference and an extra game as of quite recently so the historical stats are a little outdated.

Given the schedule we played this season vs next it would seem the Texans would need to improve to post the same record quite substantially.

Something I couldn’t help think at the end of the season, though, was that I reckon the team that played the Ravens in the playoff game would have won game 1 of the season handily.

They did a lot of learning in-season this year, the Stroud from around week 3 on wards vs the Stroud that looked overwhelmed in game 1 of pre-season. This team has made strides. Need to manage what seems to have become an NFL norm of more 1 year contracts, means more decisions to get right for Caserio this off season, hope to gain great players with later draft slots etc.

Next season is a real test and very exciting to see how they get on.

 

[Porky]

I think the team could be better next year, but the record may not really reflect it. That said, if they get into the playoffs again, I think they can be a real contender. As long as CJ is healthy, we will be a contender nearly every year…the cap notwithstanding. The next 2 or 3 years, the window is wide the hell open. Now is the time for bold strokes, not timidity. Going out and signing a Barkley at RB would be an example of a bold move. Nick and Meco need to make their mark and bring home a trophy soon.

 

[Thorn]

As long as Stroud is standing, the Texans will be in the playoffs for a long while. It would be nice if they made it past the divisional round for a change.

 

[Speedy]

There is an extra playoff team per conference and an extra game as of quite recently so the historical stats are a little outdated.

The extra playoff teams (14 teams) started in 2020. In 2021 there were 7 different playoff teams than the year before (2020). In 2022 there were 7 playoff teams that weren't there in 2021. This year there were 6 new playoff teams from the previous season. I suspect next year will be more of the same. That's why I don't put a whole lot of stock into strength of schedule of an upcoming season. Nobody knows for sure who is on the rise and who will fall off because there's just too much movement of players every offseason, and of course injuries play a part.

So yeah, I'd put good money on there being at least 5 teams in next year's playoffs who didn't make it this year, meaning at least 5 who made it this year will miss the postseason next year. The Texans have a better than decent chance to remain because they have a QB now.

 

[FireBOB]

There's only 3 games where we play uncommon teams from our divisional rivals. Unfortunately we play what looks like pretty tough teams in those games. The rest of the schedule is no picnic either, but I still like us for the division, with the Colts being our biggest rivals.

 

[Hervoyel]

I think this is finally the kind of Texans team that will benefit from playing tougher schedules. They'll get better by playing better opponents. Also if they can find a running game and add one or two more players in the draft like the ones Nick did this year they are going to be trouble for anyone in the AFC. I'm very, very optimistic about next year. They're not going to sneak up on anybody of course but it doesn't look like they're going to have to. They are good and getting better.

 

[steelbtexan]

If Ryans Caserio have another off season like they did this last off season then they will be contenders for a long time. They will have to add a couple of true impact players and a couple of really solid players in FA as well as retaining their own FA's and add a star level player in the draft. 2 star level players and depth from the draft would be great.

 

[TexansBull]

I think only two teams get replaced.

Browns and Steelers replaced by Bengals and Chargers. Outside of injury and team collapse (see Cowboys did under Wade or Texans under Kubiak or Eagles in this past playoffs) I think is stays the same.

It’s a year outside the averages because of the franchise QB effect.

 

[Thorn]

I think only two teams get replaced.

Browns and Steelers replaced by Bengals and Chargers. Outside of injury and team collapse (see Cowboys did under Wade or Texans under Kubiak or Eagles in this past playoffs) I think is stays the same.

It’s a year outside the averages because of the franchise QB effect.

AFC certainly has the majority of the "really good" QBs. As your prediction goes, I wouldn't mind a bit the Brown Stains and the Steelers missing the playoffs. LOL

 

[SAMURAITEXAN]

YES!

 

[Texansphan]

I think so.
I can see us winning at least 5 in our division and that should prevent any of the AFC South overtaking us.

 

[Texas Punishers]

Yes.

 

[Lucky]

An unequivocal yes.

 

[DocBar]

Houston currently has the 8th best chance of winning the SB next season, so I'd say yes.
Having said that, the Texans play a pretty tough schedule. It sux having to play the Jets on that awful field again. Outside of the AFCS, I only see 3 games that I strongly think the Texans will win: Bears and Patriots. Not trying to be debbie downer, just realistic.

 

[Texansphan]

With Slowik signing an upgraded contract with us and Jerrod Johnson looking likely to stay now too, I am even more optimistic for our offense next season
I think Texans will be upgrading our Oline somehow and also the running game.
These will be the two biggest areas of focus for the team.

 

[steelbtexan]

Houston currently has the 8th best chance of winning the SB next season, so I'd say yes.
Having said that, the Texans play a pretty tough schedule. It sux having to play the Jets on that awful field again. Outside of the AFCS, I only see 3 games that I strongly think the Texans will win: Bears and Patriots. Not trying to be debbie downer, just realistic.

I think they go 4-2 if they have a great offseason acquiring talent.

So that's 7. I think they will find 3 more wins.

No way I let Stroud/WA etc... play against the NYJ on that field. Take the L and stay healthy.

 

[Texans2017]

Thanks for the add, New poster but long time lurker. Looking at the schedule I could honestly see a 10-7 11-6 Season again if we add some key additions through free agency and the draft. But I do see us once again winning the division and making the playoffs. One things for sure we got quite a few key free agents to resign, and we really need to find a way to improve our Rushing attack next season.

 

[Dutchrudder]

That graph only goes through 2013, the playoffs expanded to 14 teams recently, so the average % that return to the playoffs should go up. The Texans should be able to win the division and go back to the playoffs, assuming no injuries to major players. It's always dicey in the NFL.

 

[KA4Texan]

No, we will finish 33 in a league of 32.

Bah bum hug

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

No, we will finish 33 in a league of 32.

Bah bum hug

Remember we tried that spit before and finished 31 of 32

 

[xtruroyaltyx]

If the Texans don't make the playoffs something has gone horribly wrong.

With the cap space and draft capital they have available, I believe this team will make the moves needed to be a legit contender next year.

 

[DanielTx]

Yes as long as Cj stays healthy. The real question should be will Cj win his first mvp next season because that’s his trajectory

 

[Sweech]

If Stroud stays healthy - yeah.

 

[Texansphan]

If the Texans don't make the playoffs something has gone horribly wrong.

With the cap space and draft capital they have available, I believe this team will make the moves needed to be a legit contender next year.

Tend to agree.
I can't see Caserio not moving mountains to get this team rolling this season.
The only thing that could bite us is the ole injury bug.

 

[Deadpool]

Better question, and the one you should be asking, is will the Texans make the Superbowl in 2024?

 

[Texansphan]

Better question, and the one you should be asking, is will the Texans make the Superbowl in 2024?

Depends on injuries and the quality of the depth chart.
Getting past the Chiefs and the Ravens at this point would be quite an achievement.
We're probably gonna be close, but it remains to be seen.

 

[TexansBull]

Better question, and the one you should be asking, is will the Texans make the Superbowl in 2024?

No.

San Francisco and Kansas City are going in 2024.

It is in Vegas. Next weekend.

 

[KA4Texan]

The better question is, will the Texans make it to preseason?

Asteroids are a thing that could dinosaur our season. Not to mention the lizard people.

 

[Khelar]

First reaction is a resounding yes but as always hard to tell. This time last year we were again projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023 and I didn’t agree with that. I thought it was a possibility but I believed we had the resources to be a competitive team. My refrain was basically “a lot can change year to year”. This offseason that refrain works against us a bit

1. The black swan event that could ruin next season is CJ Stroud regression. I dont have any reason to believe this will happen but it’s certainly a possibility.

2. Injuries: Never know how bad the injury bug will hit you, a few badly timed injuries or a significant Stroud injury absolutely could derail the season

3. This is the most likely issue, roster turnover. We stand to potentially lose a starting CB, a couple of linebackers who played a ton of snaps, a very productive DE, a starting DT, a starting TE, and a starting RB. That’s a lot of snaps to replace. We have the resources to bring most of these guys back or potentially replace them with upgrades but there’s no guarantees the moves we make work. This free agency period is going to be massively important to next year, we’ll know in 9-10 months how well we did.

4. Last is strength of schedule. This is a tough one because teams rise and fall so quickly in the NFL but on paper next years schedule is tougher. We could conceivably be a better team next year and end up with 8-9 wins and miss the playoffs.

Impossible to tell right now how next year goes but hey at the very least we have a ton of cause for optimism

 

[Deadpool]

No.

San Francisco and Kansas City are going in 2024.

It is in Vegas. Next weekend.

Ok I admit well played. Although I'll add that of course the Texans will make the playoffs in 2024! I'm betting a house on it! That they play (and lose) to the Ravens even

 

[Thorn]

Texans are fixin to rip off a 40-0 run.

 

[Hardcore Texan]

Does a bear sh*! in the woods? Hell yes.

 

[Texansphan]

First reaction is a resounding yes but as always hard to tell. This time last year we were again projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023 and I didn’t agree with that. I thought it was a possibility but I believed we had the resources to be a competitive team. My refrain was basically “a lot can change year to year”. This offseason that refrain works against us a bit

1. The black swan event that could ruin next season is CJ Stroud regression. I dont have any reason to believe this will happen but it’s certainly a possibility.

2. Injuries: Never know how bad the injury bug will hit you, a few badly timed injuries or a significant Stroud injury absolutely could derail the season

3. This is the most likely issue, roster turnover. We stand to potentially lose a starting CB, a couple of linebackers who played a ton of snaps, a very productive DE, a starting DT, a starting TE, and a starting RB. That’s a lot of snaps to replace. We have the resources to bring most of these guys back or potentially replace them with upgrades but there’s no guarantees the moves we make work. This free agency period is going to be massively important to next year, we’ll know in 9-10 months how well we did.

4. Last is strength of schedule. This is a tough one because teams rise and fall so quickly in the NFL but on paper next years schedule is tougher. We could conceivably be a better team next year and end up with 8-9 wins and miss the playoffs.

Impossible to tell right now how next year goes but hey at the very least we have a ton of cause for optimism

One of the things Texans can do to hedge their bets vs a Stroud regression is to seriously bolster the run game - call it insurance.
It would be so satisfying to see a running game in here that can just wear down a defense.
Afaics, Stroud has a very powerful work ethic and desire to be better - and that makes me think that the possibility of a regression with him is remote.

 

[thunderkyss]

Afaics, Stroud has a very powerful work ethic and desire to be better - and that makes me think that the possibility of a regression with him is remote

Hard to say. I understand Ohio State is a big thing in Ohio. But now he's getting attention at a natural level that dwarfs Ohio State.

He seems to have managed to stay humble & stay hungry. Let's hope he continues. I think DeMeco can help with that, at the same time empowering him to lead the team.

 

[Texansphan]

Hard to say. I understand Ohio State is a big thing in Ohio. But now he's getting attention at a natural level that dwarfs Ohio State.

He seems to have managed to stay humble & stay hungry. Let's hope he continues. I think DeMeco can help with that, at the same time empowering him to lead the team.

Empower him with another string on his bow in the form of a reliable run game and it is hard to see him failing.

 

[edo783]

Frankly, I doubt it. The South Division will have four of the real up and coming QBs, of which Story is leading that parade. They will have improved also. We were significantly under powered at key positions this year in comparison to most of our competition. I don't think we can get powered up across the board in one off season to be able to effectively compete. After two good off seasons, yes then we can reasonably expect to be very competitive. Yes, we did it this year but, I feel that had a fairly large component of luck to it. I wouldn't expect the same kind of luck two seasons in a row. Maybe the injury bug goes and finds others it likes better.

 

[steelbtexan]

Frankly, I doubt it. The South Division will have four of the real up and coming QBs, of which Story is leading that parade. They will have improved also. We were significantly under powered at key positions this year in comparison to most of our competition. I don't think we can get powered up across the board in one off season to be able to effectively compete. After two good off seasons, yes then we can reasonably expect to be very competitive. Yes, we did it this year but, I feel that had a fairly large component of luck to it. I wouldn't expect the same kind of luck two seasons in a row. Maybe the injury bug goes and finds others it likes better.

Health, adding a couple of star level players in the draft (Latu/Irving/Best WR available) and add a couple of star level players in FA like Jones/La Jarius Sneed and bring back the FA's. This would be a championship level roster. I say this because even though the schedule is tougher I believe in Stroud and seeing how they performed while severely undermanned because of injury. With just a normal amount of injuries next season this is a better team.

 

[DanielTx]

One of the things Texans can do to hedge their bets vs a Stroud regression is to seriously bolster the run game - call it insurance.
It would be so satisfying to see a running game in here that can just wear down a defense.
Afaics, Stroud has a very powerful work ethic and desire to be better - and that makes me think that the possibility of a regression with him is remote.

Texan fans mindsets will change very soon this upcoming summer. I get discussing possible regression from Cj but honestly… c’mon man. We always assume the worse and it’s understandable because we’ve had an incompetent franchise for a while now but when you have the right gm, right coach, right oc, right qb, your mindset tends to change to “how much more will we improve by than last season” Oh just wait.. Everyone with common sense knows Cj being on his rookie contract is our Super Bowl window and expect big things this summer and maybe the draft. I’m going to just sit back and watch. Listen to some of you guys takes here and there and maybe come back and quote this post

 

[TheMatrix31]

Shore up the dumb penalties and some rookie playcalling, stay even remotely healthy and we should be fighting for playoffs I'd say.

 

[Mangler]

Shore up the dumb penalties and some rookie playcalling, stay even remotely healthy and we should be fighting for playoffs I'd say.

Sign Evans and Barkley (2-3 year deals) then go heavy on defense come draft night. We could be the new Legion of Boom. CJ would then get us to the promised land easily.

 

[Lucky]

Sign Evans and Barkley (2-3 year deals) then go heavy on defense come draft night. We could be the new Legion of Boom. CJ would then get us to the promised land easily.

I was thinking the opposite, go defense in FA and offense in the draft, but the result is the same.

 

[Texansphan]

Texan fans mindsets will change very soon this upcoming summer. I get discussing possible regression from Cj but honestly… c’mon man. We always assume the worse and it’s understandable because we’ve had an incompetent franchise for a while now but when you have the right gm, right coach, right oc, right qb, your mindset tends to change to “how much more will we improve by than last season” Oh just wait.. Everyone with common sense knows Cj being on his rookie contract is our Super Bowl window and expect big things this summer and maybe the draft. I’m going to just sit back and watch. Listen to some of you guys takes here and there and maybe come back and quote this post

I heard an interview with CJ and he was asked what he attributes his success to.
His answer was simple and showed he has the basics figured out - and he ain't gonna regress.
Texans FO just has to make some smart team upgrades now.

 

[thunderkyss]

Texan fans mindsets will change very soon this upcoming summer. I get discussing possible regression from Cj but honestly… c’mon man. We always assume the worse and it’s understandable because we’ve had an incompetent franchise for a while now but when you have the right gm, right coach, right oc, right qb, your mindset tends to change to “how much more will we improve by than last season” Oh just wait.. Everyone with common sense knows Cj being on his rookie contract is our Super Bowl window and expect big things this summer and maybe the draft. I’m going to just sit back and watch. Listen to some of you guys takes here and there and maybe come back and quote this post

I agree with you. But I'm one of those guys always waiting for the other foot to drop.

& like you said, Cj regressing is one variable. I think most believe that's not going to happen.

But you listed several other things that point to the dysfunction of the franchise. I for one am not convinced we've turned that corner. Look at Tyler Linderbaum. We can rationalize that decision away & we don't know how Linderbaum would have played out here, but it's a fact that 3rd round pick we used on a QB didn't make any sense. Check my history but I tried to get behind it.

Not sour grapes, but Nick & DeMeco have a lot of work to do to make the most of the window we have. That's all I'm saying. Plenty of teams have been where we are & still missed the playoffs the following season.

 

[steelbtexan]

I agree with you. But I'm one of those guys always waiting for the other foot to drop.

& like you said, Cj regressing is one variable. I think most believe that's not going to happen.

But you listed several other things that point to the dysfunction of the franchise. I for one am not convinced we've turned that corner. Look at Tyler Linderbaum. We can rationalize that decision away & we don't know how Linderbaum would have played out here, but it's a fact that 3rd round pick we used on a QB didn't make any sense. Check my history but I tried to get behind it.

Not sour grapes, but Nick & DeMeco have a lot of work to do to make the most of the window we have. That's all I'm saying. Plenty of teams have been where we are & still missed the playoffs the following season.

Nobody bats 100% and out of that draft Caserio got a WR1, a playmaking H-Back/TE and a backup QB. They needed to keep taking shots at the QB position until they found their guy. I call that doing a great job.

As far as Linderbaum goes, I wanted Jordan Davis or Hamilton. We didn't get what we wanted. But it looks like Caserio/Lovie hit on Stingley/Harris and hopefully Petrie/Pierce can get back to where they were. I've still got hope for Green playing well (Stingley) once he gets healthy.

Last yr they nailed the draft, with the OROY and DROY. Plus Tank etc...

Add on the fact that Caserio has added FA's like Nelson/Collins/Barnett/Cashman Mason/Schultz/Rankins in FA/trades in addition to having the 3rd most cap space in the NFL and the Texans are well positioned for the future. You appear to be wanting to live in the past of what the Lovie regime wanted vs what Ryans wants and Caserio's ability to get the types of players Ryans wants. Ryans/Caserio work well together and Caserio/Lovie didn't work well together, although Caserio tried to get Lovie the guys he wanted.

Adding star level players like Stroud/WA and Stingley and up and coming young guys like Harris/Cashman and the future is bright with good health. To think otherwise is either you being a negative Nancy or not being able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. If I can admit I was wrong about Stoud, you should be able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. Good news is with Caserio/Ryans being in lock step together I expect another couple of star level players out of this draft. Most likely star level players this yr will come from the WR/CB/Edge Group. Although they could get lucky and hit on a later rd RB if they dont choose to go the FA route at RB.

I always said it would take 3 yrs to add talent and cleanup the cap mess BOB left behind before the Texans would be contenders again and that's exactly what's happened. The future is bright and the best thing that ever happened to the Texans franchise is the Perv wanting to be traded and Caserio setting things up so that guys like Stingley/Stroud/WA could be drafted.

 

[Mangler]

Nobody bats 100% and out of that draft Caserio got a WR1, a playmaking H-Back/TE and a backup QB. They needed to keep taking shots at the QB position until they found their guy. I call that doing a great job.

As far as Linderbaum goes, I wanted Jordan Davis or Hamilton. We didn't get what we wanted. But it looks like Caserio/Lovie hit on Stingley/Harris and hopefully Petrie/Pierce can get back to where they were. I've still got hope for Green playing well (Stingley) once he gets healthy.

Last yr they nailed the draft, with the OROY and DROY. Plus Tank etc...

Add on the fact that Caserio has added FA's like Nelson/Collins/Barnett/Cashman Mason/Schultz/Rankins in FA/trades in addition to having the 3rd most cap space in the NFL and the Texans are well positioned for the future. You appear to be wanting to live in the past of what the Lovie regime wanted vs what Ryans wants and Caserio's ability to get the types of players Ryans wants. Ryans/Caserio work well together and Caserio/Lovie didn't work well together, although Caserio tried to get Lovie the guys he wanted.

Adding star level players like Stroud/WA and Stingley and up and coming young guys like Harris/Cashman and the future is bright with good health. To think otherwise is either you being a negative Nancy or not being able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. If I can admit I was wrong about Stoud, you should be able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. Good news is with Caserio/Ryans being in lock step together I expect another couple of star level players out of this draft. Most likely star level players this yr will come from the WR/CB/Edge Group. Although they could get lucky and hit on a later rd RB if they dont choose to go the FA route at RB.

I always said it would take 3 yrs to add talent and cleanup the cap mess BOB left behind before the Texans would be contenders again and that's exactly what's happened. The future is bright and the best thing that ever happened to the Texans franchise is the Perv wanting to be traded and Caserio setting things up so that guys like Stingley/Stroud/WA could be drafted.

Couldn’t agree more!

 

[thunderkyss]

Nobody bats 100% and out of that draft Caserio got a WR1, a playmaking H-Back/TE and a backup QB. They needed to keep taking shots at the QB position until they found their guy. I call that doing a great job.

As far as Linderbaum goes, I wanted Jordan Davis or Hamilton. We didn't get what we wanted. But it looks like Caserio/Lovie hit on Stingley/Harris and hopefully Petrie/Pierce can get back to where they were. I've still got hope for Green playing well (Stingley) once he gets healthy.

Last yr they nailed the draft, with the OROY and DROY. Plus Tank etc...

Add on the fact that Caserio has added FA's like Nelson/Collins/Barnett/Cashman Mason/Schultz/Rankins in FA/trades in addition to having the 3rd most cap space in the NFL and the Texans are well positioned for the future. You appear to be wanting to live in the past of what the Lovie regime wanted vs what Ryans wants and Caserio's ability to get the types of players Ryans wants. Ryans/Caserio work well together and Caserio/Lovie didn't work well together, although Caserio tried to get Lovie the guys he wanted.

Adding star level players like Stroud/WA and Stingley and up and coming young guys like Harris/Cashman and the future is bright with good health. To think otherwise is either you being a negative Nancy or not being able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. If I can admit I was wrong about Stoud, you should be able to admit you were wrong about Caserio. Good news is with Caserio/Ryans being in lock step together I expect another couple of star level players out of this draft. Most likely star level players this yr will come from the WR/CB/Edge Group. Although they could get lucky and hit on a later rd RB if they dont choose to go the FA route at RB.

I always said it would take 3 yrs to add talent and cleanup the cap mess BOB left behind before the Texans would be contenders again and that's exactly what's happened. The future is bright and the best thing that ever happened to the Texans franchise is the Perv wanting to be traded and Caserio setting things up so that guys like Stingley/Stroud/WA could be drafted.

There will be highs, there will be lows. Hopefully the highs will continue to be higher & the lows less shallow. But I haven't seen enough to feel confident that this thing is getting lined out any time soon.

 

[steelbtexan]

Getting your franchisel QB, Edge,CB is a great place to start. Plus there's a lot of other talent on this team

 

[Texansphan]

Getting your franchisel QB, Edge,CB is a great place to start. Plus there's a lot of other talent on this team

We have some solid pieces in place - add WRs, LT and LB.