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Post Draft 53 Man Roster Prediction (2023)

T

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Here is my first crack at it:

(25) Offense

(3) QB: Stroud, Mills, Keenum

(5) RB: Pierce, Singletary, Ogunbowale, Hairston, Valladay

(6) WR: Woods, Collins, Metchie, Brown, Dell, Hutchinson

(3) TE: Schultz, Quitoriano, Beck

(3) OT: Tunsil, Howard, Heck

(3) OG: Green, Mason, Patterson

(2) OC: Scruggs, Deiter

(25) Defense:

(4) DE: Anderson, Greenard, Hughes, Horton

(5) DT: Collins, Rankins, Ridgeway, Lopez, Hinish

(3) OLB: Harris, Littleton, Cashman

(3) MLB: Perryman, Kirksey, To’o To’o

(5) CB: Stingley, Nelson, Thomas, King, Sheffield

(3) SS: Ward, Stewart, Hill

(2) FS: Pitre, Murray

(3) Specialists:

(1) K: Fairbairn

(1) P: Johnston

(1) LS: Weeks
 
Initial thoughts:

1) It’s going to be much harder to make the team this season. Depth is improved across the board. Draft pick(s) may be cut this season and I find it difficult to find a path for many UDFAs to make the roster. It will come down to injuries in camp I suspect.

2) My biggest concern post draft is outside CB depth. I expect them to add one during roster cutdowns. It was extremely telling that the Texans did not pick a CB or TE in the draft or UDFAs. They must feel pretty good about where the roster is at with these positions or they plan to add later in offseason rather than the draft.

3) I put Kirksey on the roster, but with his cap number and projected role I expect him to be cut or to get the veteran special trade when another team has an injury in camp. 6th rounder for 7th plus player.

4) Remember last year’s draft when everyone was upset they did not draft any edge rushers and it was a huge need? They then signed Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Rasheem Green pretty soon after the draft. I would not be surprised if they do something similar at a position they identify as a need post draft. For me, they need another outside CB.
 
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:texflag::texflag:Biggest strengths:

Offense: OL. This starting OL is the best since Kubiak was HC.

Tunsil is an all pro LT. Green needs to stay healthy and improve year two but can be solid if he plays to his ability. Scruggs is an improvement over Quessenberry, has the makings of a solid starter. Mason and Howard are rock solid starters, no concerns about them. If your only question marks are can your two highly drafted young players just play ok because you’ve got three rock solid veterans around them then you’ve got a good OL these days. Also, there is legitimate competition for quality depth at the positions. Deiter is an upgrade over Mccray and may be this year’s Ethan Pocic outright winning the starting center job and playing to his potential. Heck is a solid swing tackle. Deculus is in the mix but i’m not sure if he’ll be a scheme-fit. Patterson would have been drafted higher if not for injury concerns.

Defense: DL. Defense was much harder than offense because I feel like they are going to be an above average unit overall with no significant weaknesses. The additions of Rankins and Ridgeway at DT are significant. The run defense will be much improved this season. Lopez will be pushed down to 4th on the depth chart and be quality depth. Collins is a solid starter and will be a factor in a contract year with improved talent around him.

Anderson is this team’s Bosa. He will be the heart beat of the defense just like he was at Alabama and elevate the play of everyone around him. Greenard is in a contract year and is a solid player when healthy. The key is staying healthy for him. He has the skills to be a significant contributor as the starting base DE opposite Anderson.

Hughes is an excellent veteran leader on this team that can still play at a high level as we saw with his 9 sack performance last season. Ideally he stays at or just below 50% of the snaps to keep him fresh and effective over the course of the season. Horton is a quality addition and has upside to take over as a starter down the road. But he will be quality rotational depth immediately. Winovich and Rivers are wild cards. Both are talented former 3rd round picks. They have to stay healthy and if they do then there will be some tough cuts elsewhere because the team will want to have them on the roster for game day.


The game is won and lost in the trenches. Caserio and Cap have built a roster that is strong in the trenches. They will compete for the AFC South banner this season!
 
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The1ApplePie said:
I doubt Mills sticks around. Case is the obvious backup, CJ the obvious starter.
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I thought I could see him getting the veteran special trade package to a team hit by QB injuries in camp. Then I remembered DeMeco was part of the team that ran out of QBs in the NFC championship.

They are going to carry 3 QBs. Mills’ contract is not cost prohibitive and he’s talented enough to be a solid backup for any team. Really depends on if he brings that “film room” factor that kept Schaub in the league as a backup long after his arm turned into a wet noodle.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I thought I could see him getting the veteran special trade package to a team hit by QB injuries in camp. Then I remembered DeMeco was part of the team that ran out of QBs in the NFC championship.

They are going to carry 3 QBs. Mills’ contract is not cost prohibitive and he’s talented enough to be a solid backup for any team. Really depends on if he brings that “film room” factor that kept Schaub in the league as a backup long after his arm turned into a wet noodle.
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Agreed, as long as he doesn't pull a Mallet and become a petulant child over losing his job.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Here is my first crack at it:

(25) Offense

(3) QB: Stroud, Mills, Keenum

(5) RB: Pierce, Singletary, Ogunbowale, Hairston, Valladay

(6) WR: Woods, Collins, Metchie, Brown, Dell, Hutchinson

(3) TE: Schultz, Quitoriano, Beck

(3) OT: Tunsil, Howard, Heck

(3) OG: Green, Mason, Patterson

(2) OC: Scruggs, Deiter

(25) Defense:

(4) DE: Anderson, Greenard, Hughes, Horton

(5) DT: Collins, Rankins, Ridgeway, Lopez, Hinish

(3) OLB: Harris, Littleton, Cashman

(3) MLB: Perryman, Kirksey, To’o To’o

(5) CB: Stingley, Nelson, Thomas, King, Sheffield

(3) SS: Ward, Stewart, Hill

(2) FS: Pitre, Murray

(3) Specialists:

(1) K: Fairbairn

(1) P: Johnston

(1) LS: Weeks
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That seems reasonable. I think Ogunbowale might get cut. Valladay I'd pencil in at RB3. They paid $175,000 in guarantees to sign him I read, which is pretty high for an UDFA.

I could see Kirksey getting cut too. I don't think he fits the swarming defense style. Hinish I like, but if he didn't build strength, he could be cut too.

I also have a question mark for Nico. If he doesn't have a good camp, he could be on the way out. Almost all of the WRs on the roster have been signed or drafted to fit the new offense.

It'll be nice to have tough competition in camp this year. It shows the team is getting better and will, therefore, have better depth.
 
I'm going to guess the starters:

QB - Stroud (Keenum, Mills)
RB - Pierce (Singletary, Valladay, Boone, Hairston)
TE - Schultz (Quintariano, Beck)
WR1 - Woods (Collins, Hutchinson)
WR2 - Brown (Metchie)
WR3 - Dell [could be Metchie if he's fully ready to go]
T - Tunsil, Howard (Heck)
G - Green, Mason (Scruggs, Patterson)
C - Deiter [I'm thinking his pro experience gives him the edge, but I wouldn't be surprised if Scruggs or Patterson starts]

DE - Anderson, Hughes (Greenard, Horton, Rivers)
DT - Rankins, Collins (Ridgeway, Lopez, Odeyele)
LB - Harris, Perryman, Littleton (To'oTo'o, Cashman, Wallow)
CB - Stingley, Nelson (King, Thomas, Sheffield, Hill)
S - Pitre, Ward (Stewart, Murphy)

That looks a helluva lot better than last year.
 
TheRealJoker said:
I thought I could see him getting the veteran special trade package to a team hit by QB injuries in camp. Then I remembered DeMeco was part of the team that ran out of QBs in the NFC championship.

They are going to carry 3 QBs. Mills’ contract is not cost prohibitive and he’s talented enough to be a solid backup for any team. Really depends on if he brings that “film room” factor that kept Schaub in the league as a backup long after his arm turned into a wet noodle.
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Agree.
No-one who prides themselves as a football fan will doubt Mills would be better with better talent around him.
 
Speedy said:
But Mills being better could just mean from bottom of the barrel to low to mid 20 something. Doesn't mean he can take a team anywhere, even if the talent around him is better.
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Right.
That's why we only need him as a backup.
 
Speedy said:
But Mills being better could just mean from bottom of the barrel to low to mid 20 something. Doesn't mean he can take a team anywhere, even if the talent around him is better.
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You dont know this,

Same can be said about Stroud until he proves differently on the field.

Are we already setting up the narrative that we aren't going to give Stroud the Mills treatment?
 
steelbtexan said:
Stroud should be treated the same way Mills was treated when he screws up. You know start a thread that calls Stroud gutter trash.
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Steel you seem to be trying to setup the situation so that you can criticize Stroud and say it just the same as Mills and I'm pretty sure that you know its an apples and oranges type of thing. I know you don't think much of him, but its not necessary to try and demean him just because you don't like him. After two years fire away if he is bad, but until then give the lad A bit of support or just don't say anything.
 
edo783 said:
Steel you seem to be trying to setup the situation so that you can criticize Stroud and say it just the same as Mills and I'm pretty sure that you know its an apples and oranges type of thing. I know you don't think much of him, but its not necessary to try and demean him just because you don't like him. After two years fire away if he is bad, but until then give the lad A bit of support or just don't say anything.
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Is it wrong to criticize Stroud like people criticized Mills and BTW, I'm not setting up anything, I'm just asking questions, because some are already saying lets be patient with Stroud, I'm saying use the same amount of patience that you used with Mills. You should really even use less patience because Stroud will have much better weapons to work with. No excuses for Stroud when he has a bad game.
 
steelbtexan said:
Is it wrong to criticize Stroud like people criticized Mills and BTW, I'm not setting up anything, I'm just asking questions, because some are already saying lets be patient with Stroud, I'm saying use the same amount of patience that you used with Mills. You should really even use less patience because Stroud will have much better weapons to work with. No excuses for Stroud when he has a bad game.
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I'm not even sure when Stroud is going to start, but the Texans will win more than the Vegas line of 5.5 games; the possibility that he has a bad game like Mills in his rookie year is slim because this roster is better.

The only thing is that Vegas is very powerful, nobody can predict which way the wind blows.

The thing is they drafted Stroud and brought in Keenum.

That ought to tell you that the Mills' experience is over.
He had the chance.

Now it Stroud's chance.
Don't be a hater and wish that he's going to do badly.

Also, Stroud doesn't play Hero Ball; you ought to like him, right?
 
steelbtexan said:
Is it wrong to criticize Stroud like people criticized Mills and BTW, I'm not setting up anything, I'm just asking questions, because some are already saying lets be patient with Stroud, I'm saying use the same amount of patience that you used with Mills. You should really even use less patience because Stroud will have much better weapons to work with. No excuses for Stroud when he has a bad game.
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Mills didn't start getting what you call 'The Treatment' until his second year when he regressed. Can't you give Stroud at least his first year to set a baseline?
 
Don't care really. This team has more to be excited about than not... and that's a wonderful feeling.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Can this thread (or any of them) stay on topic? Or are we going to argue about Stroud’s career arc and Texans being mediocre in every thread?
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We normally meander like a drunk Irishman when it comes to staying on topic, but we just need to expect in these next few weeks that certain posters are going to cut/paste their talking points everywhere. Best not to feed the bears.
 
TheRealJoker said:
Can this thread (or any of them) stay on topic? Or are we going to argue about Stroud’s career arc and Texans being mediocre in every thread?
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There have been few forums with any serious amount of activity that don't careem around all over the place. Especially when there are people who have "conversations" and "topics" going back over a decade.
 
JB said:
Mills didn't start getting what you call 'The Treatment' until his second year when he regressed. Can't you give Stroud at least his first year to set a baseline?
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Why? Stroud has more talent to work with than Mills ever had.
 
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AcresHomesTexan said:
The message about Anderson being a wide 9 DE has been mentioned by GM, coach, and player. The website folks might want to listen to the things that they post.
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Researching the wide 9 formation on the web, I found mention of ex Texan Jason Babin who, after leaving the Texans, became an all-pro playing at the wide 9 and with Philly in 2011 had 18 sacks.

This is the production we should expect from Anderson, to justify the expense of the trade up.
 
Number19 said:
Researching the wide 9 formation on the web, I found mention of ex Texan Jason Babin who, after leaving the Texans, became an all-pro playing at the wide 9 and with Philly in 2011 had 18 sacks.

This is the production we should expect from Anderson, to justify the expense of the trade up.
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Like once, or every season? 18 sacks would have led the league in half of the last 20 years.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
There have been few forums with any serious amount of activity that don't careem around all over the place. Especially when there are people who have "conversations" and "topics" going back over a decade.
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Quoted for truth, but this thread is supposed to be different? Wonder why this is?

Pass me my kool-aid. Said Jim Jones.
 
Number19 said:
Researching the wide 9 formation on the web, I found mention of ex Texan Jason Babin who, after leaving the Texans, became an all-pro playing at the wide 9 and with Philly in 2011 had 18 sacks.

This is the production we should expect from Anderson, to justify the expense of the trade up.
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Yes, no excuses.

I think Anderson will end up having a Justin Houston type career. While not Watt/Bosa worthy, He's going to have a very good career. Probably worthy of 1-3.
 
steelbtexan said:
Yes, no excuses.

I think Anderson will end up having a Justin Houston type career. While not Watt/Bosa worthy, He's going to have a very good career. Probably worthy of 1-3.
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I love how much he wants to be a Texan and work with Ryans. Love guys who want to be here. I think however his career shakes out, he'll give the team and the city everything he's got.
 
wasntme said:
Chase Winovich is making the roster
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Yeah, I guess you could move out Hinish to make room for him. Since Horton can bump inside, can probably go 5 DE 4 DT.

Winovich has been a ST contributor each year playing at least half the available snaps there in games he’s been healthy since he’s been in the league. So good chance he’ll find a way on the roster if they’re crunching numbers and figuring out whether to carry 5 DEs or 5 DTs.
 
Agree with the strengths/weaknesses? I’d say the biggest weaknesses currently are true WR 1 and outside CB depth. I think depth is getting there but the next step will be adding stud playmakers. That’s the difference between competing for ththe AFC South banner and the Lombardi trophy. Hopefully the youngsters can meet the challenge.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653846906965991429
 
TheRealJoker said:
Yeah, I guess you could move out Hinish to make room for him. Since Horton can bump inside, can probably go 5 DE 4 DT.

Winovich has been a ST contributor each year playing at least half the available snaps there in games he’s been healthy since he’s been in the league. So good chance he’ll find a way on the roster if they’re crunching numbers and figuring out whether to carry 5 DEs or 5 DTs.
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I bet they carry 5 DT's and 5 Edges.
 
steelbtexan said:
Rankins and Collins are playmakers if they can stay healthy. Ridgeway is a solid run defender. Better than anybody on last years team.
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Collins legit. But he wouldn’t start in SF’s front four. I think we’re rolling the dice with Rankins. Could be wrong. His best days are probably behind him.

if they were who you think they were, wouldn’t be necessary to carry 5 DTs.

Again, jmo
 
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