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2023 TEXANS DRAFT DISCUSSION

rmartin65 said:
I actually can't think of which one I'd rather see less- Levis at 2, or Hooker at 12. Yikes.
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It's a 2 QB draft. You can take flyers on the others, but they aren't solid prospects. Young and Stroud will be NFL starters. Don't care what the measuring tape, the scale, the S2 results, or the Ouija board says. I've done my research on them with my Magic 8 ball.

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But when I asked about Levis, Richardson, and Hooker...

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TexCanada said:
If there is any truth to us having Levis rated higher then Stroud then I’d guess we are not going QB at two and probably contemplating taking a QB at 12. That could actually be a pretty good outcome for us.
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Which is why they are looking to trade down. If CJ was a slam dunk guy from them, this smoke about them not only fielding offers but proactively making calls to prospective trade partners wouldn't be a thing. This to me is the final nail in the coffin. They very likely aren't taking CJ at 2. Never say never, but I just don't see it.

If they traded down and he is still there, maybe he becomes a better value at the trade down spot.

#S2, #Mulagetta
 
rmartin65 said:
I have a really hard time believing the negative rumors about Stroud (S2 score and difficult to coach)- nothing I have seen in games indicates the former, and nothing I have read indicates the latter. It sounds like a team is trying to get Stroud to drop. Or that another QBs agent is trying to get him to drop (and Levis is now all the sudden a favorite for the #2 slot, interesting).

I'd be very disappointed if Levis was the pick at 2, even if I respect the amateur bodybuilding work. At least with Richardson at that spot there is the wild, unprecedented physical ability to get excited/hopeful about. Levis... meh. Not as polished as a QB as Young/Stroud, not as athletically gifted as Richardson. I fail to see what makes him the pick there.

I actually can't think of which one I'd rather see less- Levis at 2, or Hooker at 12. Yikes.
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I'm with you on all of this. As to your last point, Levis at 2 is slightly more disappointing than Hooker at 12 imo. If they trade out of 12 and move down some...maybe slightly more palatable. Hooker is a low 2 to a 3 in my mind...but I know QB's can get pushed up and he's been rising on a lot of boards and I think that smoke comes from somewhere. I'd rather trade up a few spots from 33 to take Hooker if he is their guy.

But I'm with you. If we're taking a huge swing at the fences, the obvious choice is Richardson imho.
 
Lucky said:
OK, but why can't Pierce be the RB coach's pick? Harris the LB coach's pick? Did Caserio make any pick?
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Because of the comments post draft made around the first pick support the theory that it was Lovie’s pick. And new coaches negotiate at times for the rights to the first draft they are picking in the first round.
 
Porky said:
Which is why they are looking to trade down. If CJ was a slam dunk guy from them, this smoke about them not only fielding offers but proactively making calls to prospective trade partners wouldn't be a thing. This to me is the final nail in the coffin. They very likely aren't taking CJ at 2. Never say never, but I just don't see it.

If they traded down and he is still there, maybe he becomes a better value at the trade down spot.

#S2, #Mulagetta
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I liked Hooker when he was projected as a late second to fourth round pick. There are too many more solid options at #2, #12 and #33 than Hooker. As I wrote earlier, I'm feeling very conservative about this draft.
 
"what I believe is bryce is going to be a panther, I was told Bryce would have loved to be a Texan, they prioritized Hendon Hooker and Will Anderson as soon as visits started, not going operate on any desperation, be prepared for first pick to be a defensive player, carolina is not going to trade the pick, would have taken 2 and 12 to get the first pick, offered another scenario where it was offering a 2024 FRP"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648368065430601728

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648370914608951296
 
Lucky said:
OK, but why can't Pierce be the RB coach's pick? Harris the LB coach's pick? Did Caserio make any pick?
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Danny Barrett (RB coach) = Pierce
Miles Smith (Lovie's son) = trade up for Harris
Ben McDaniels/Pep Hamilton (wr coach/passsing game coordinator) = trade up for Metchie (passed on Pickens and Sky Moore).
 
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From a purely statistical standpoint, three quarterbacks from Kiper's top 11 stand out: Young (the 2021 Heisman winner), Stroud (a two-time top-four Heisman finisher) and Georgia's Stetson Bennett (a two-time national champion). They were the most successful college quarterbacks on the planet, so their superiority makes sense.

Tennessee's Hendon Hooker, No. 5 on Kiper's list, stands out pretty similarly, and with quite a few more dropbacks than anyone in the top four. He has a couple of red flags going against him -- he's already 25, and he's coming off a November ACL tear -- and while he is pretty fast in open space, he was the worst QB in this sample when it comes to escaping pressure. His downside is almost as clear as his upside.

Meanwhile, if you're looking solely at stats, the fact that Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida's Anthony Richardson grade out as top-10 picks doesn't make a lot of sense. Levis lacked explosiveness, Richardson lacked efficiency, both threw interceptions more frequently than the other prospects, and both showed up near the bottom in terms of Total QBR. Both bring a level of mobility to the table, but Total QBR does take that into account a bit.

The general rule is that pressure and out-of-pocket improvisation numbers are a bit more volatile and that, to the extent that college stats are reliable, those generated from a clean pocket with no pressure might be a bit more telling. So let's look at those numbers.


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Stroud's numbers leap off the page in virtually every category -- second-highest completion rate, most yards per completion, highest touchdown rate, third-lowest INT rate, highest raw QBR. He also had the best receiving corps, of course, throwing to first-rounders Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2021 and future high draft picks Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka in 2022. Hooker, Young and Bennett all thrived in clean-pocket situations, too, and among the lower-ranked prospects on the list, UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson absolutely thrived in these situations; if opponents couldn't hurry him, he picked them apart.


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Again, Levis and Richardson struggled here. Their status as soon-to-be top picks stems totally from what they could deliver in the future, not what they delivered in college. And if there's encouragement to be derived, it comes from Josh Allen's college stats. Before becoming a star for the Buffalo Bills, Allen posted wholly mediocre numbers as a Wyoming Cowboy. His pocket-no-pressure numbers in Laramie: 62% completion rate, 12.0 yards per completion, 80.5 QBR. It took two full years of struggles at the NFL level, plus nearly perfect support from the Bills in terms of improving his supporting cast and giving him time to grow, but he did eventually become a star after posting numbers not too dissimilar from Levis' or Richardson's.

Again, Stroud's numbers are incredible, as are what Hooker produced from Josh Heupel's cheat code of an offense. (Meanwhile, if you were thinking more highly of Thompson-Robinson because of the clean-pocket stats, these stats are a bit of a wet blanket.)

Once again, Bennett's numbers pop too, despite the fact that his best weapons at UGA were tight ends and a slot receiver (Ladd McConkey) catching a lot of his passes near the line of scrimmage. A former walk-on and a player thrust into the starting role at Georgia only after a number of injuries,

Bennett's physical measurables (5-foot-11, 192 pounds) are holding his draft stock back considerably just as they (initially) held him back on the Bulldogs' depth chart. But his stock is rising a bit, and I'm fascinated to see what kind of opportunities he finds.

Again, Levis comes up short here, though we start to see a split between him and Richardson. No matter how strong Levis' arm might be, he was the most heave-and-hope deep-ball passer of this bunch, and he was picked off far more on these passes than any other prospect.
Josh Allen on deep balls at Wyoming: 38% completion rate, 18% TD rate, 5.5% INT rate. Levis doesn't clear even that low bar, though Richardson does.

The stats above certainly tell us who's getting drafted because of known production and who's getting drafted based on potential. And while there's a loose correlation between good college and pro numbers (and players almost never exceed their college rate stats in the pros), Allen's success, combined with the struggles of players like Mayfield, reinforces the idea that college production isn't the end-all, be-all for a prospect facing a degree-of-difficulty jump.

The top four names -- Young, Levis, Stroud and Richardson -- are virtually guaranteed to go in the top 10. Let's take a deeper dive into these four. The teams drafting these players will determine a healthy percentage of their success based on supporting casts and general developmental competence. And while we don't know who among the top prospects will succeed or fail, for those who fail, we probably know what traits, if unaccounted for, will sink them. Let's talk fatal flaws!
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www.espn.com

Four top QBs in the NFL draft, four fatal flaws: Biggest weaknesses for each

Bill Connelly breaks down the most telling college numbers for Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 
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I think we're getting ourselves a Hooker. First time I've gotten a Hooker that I didn't leave happy.

Someone hold Optimistic Texan's feet on the ground. He might float away in a cloud of happiness.
 
Lucky said:
The article is basically a horror show starring Will Levis. Who is bad to worse in every metric. Leaves you wondering "Why is this guy considered among the top QBs?"

Oh, he looks good in a mirror.
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Nick is once again going to be the smartest guy in the room and blow it. You know it. I know it. The American people know it.

Then after the top picks he'll settle down, make good picks and we'll be at the same juncture as last year. Scratching our heads wondering how his 4th rounder is outperforming the top picks.
 
Porky said:
Nick is once again going to be the smartest guy in the room and blow it. You know it. I know it. The American people know it.
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I'm not saying I know what's going to happen. But there's no way someone can look at CJ Stroud and Will Levis, then come away thinking Will Levis is the superior player. That belief is going to allow me to get sleep over the next 9 nights.
 
Porky said:
I think we're getting ourselves a Hooker. First time I've gotten a Hooker that I didn't leave happy.

Someone hold Optimistic Texan's feet on the ground. He might float away in a cloud of happiness.
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No need to hold my feet to the ground b/c I’ve had Hooker on my radar over Young and Stroud from the get-go. Richardson and Levis were somewhat known, but not to the tune that they’ve been pushed leading up to the draft.

I believe Caserio and Ryans have come to an agreement regarding the 2nd pick. They’ll either draft LB, Anderson, Jr or trade back and gather some important draft capital.

If I had my rathers, Seattle would want the #2 pick enough to give up their picks 20, 37, 52, and 2024 RD1. RD1…DE- Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) and QB- Hendon Hooker (Tennessee). RD2….WR- Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee), OC- John Michael-Schmitz (Minnesota), and LB- Jack Campbell (Iowa). RD3…..TE- Tucker Kraft (North Dakota State) and RB- Devon Achane (Texas A&M). If I was pretty confident Achane would still be on the board at the front of RD4, I’d be pretty good with selecting SS- JL Skinner (Boise State) with the second pick of RD3.
 
DocBar said:
IMO, the Stingley pick was all Lovie Smith pounding the table for "his" guy.
With Caserio's comments last week, I wouldn't be surprised if they traded out of the 1.2 pick.
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If that's the case then that's another mark against Caserio. If it's his job on the line to turn this franchise around, why is he letting placeholders make picks? Still a mark against him though if that's not the case because that means Caserio ignored all the red flags and still went with Stingley.

And yeah, it could still turn out to be a good pick but to take that kind of a gamble that high in the draft is not the kind of rewards you're looking for after enduring a miserable 4 win season. Those picks need to be HRs, not doubles or triples, or God forbid strikeouts.
 
rmartin65 said:
I have a really hard time believing the negative rumors about Stroud (S2 score and difficult to coach)- nothing I have seen in games indicates the former, and nothing I have read indicates the latter. It sounds like a team is trying to get Stroud to drop. Or that another QBs agent is trying to get him to drop (and Levis is now all the sudden a favorite for the #2 slot, interesting).

I'd be very disappointed if Levis was the pick at 2, even if I respect the amateur bodybuilding work. At least with Richardson at that spot there is the wild, unprecedented physical ability to get excited/hopeful about. Levis... meh. Not as polished as a QB as Young/Stroud, not as athletically gifted as Richardson. I fail to see what makes him the pick there.

I actually can't think of which one I'd rather see less- Levis at 2, or Hooker at 12. Yikes.
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Have you ever dotted the I?

If not you should.
 
Lucky said:
The article is basically a horror show starring Will Levis. Who is bad to worse in every metric. Leaves you wondering "Why is this guy considered among the top QBs?"

Oh, he looks good in a mirror.
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For the people that can't read it:

Will Levis' fatal flaw: He's going to take so many unnecessary hits (and throw unnecessary picks)
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Levis' radar chart. (Blue = Levis' stats, black = national averages.) His completion rate was well above average, and he did make occasional huge plays, but his negative play rates were far worse than normal, and for someone with supposed plus-athleticism, his per-carry rushing numbers were dreadful. (Source: StatsBomb.)

We've learned a lot about ceilings and floors in recent years. In Josh Allen, Buffalo drafted a quarterback whose production suggested a terribly low floor and whose athletic ability suggested a ridiculously high ceiling. It took two full years of struggling and learning for Allen to click at the pro level.

Meanwhile, in the same draft, Baker Mayfield -- 6-foot-1, 215 pounds, a 4.8 40 and with less perceived athleticism -- went to Cleveland at No. 1 and improved his Total QBR from 51.2 (23rd) to 54.4 (19th) to 65.5 (10th) over his first three seasons. It's been a free fall ever since. Mayfield was slowed by injury early in 2021, but his stats have never recovered. He ranked 27th in Total QBR in 2021 (40.9) and 31st (24.5), dead last among eligible QBs, in 2022.

Opponents figure you out and force you to continue improving over the course of your pro career, and even with early success, a lot of pros hit their heads on their respective ceilings pretty quickly. Whoever drafts the 6-foot-4, 229-pound Levis will be desperately hoping that he has an Allen-esque ceiling because his college stats suggest his floor is lower than that of any top-level prospect.

Levis' stats do come with caveats. For one, his supporting cast wasn't nearly as strong as Young's, Stroud's or even Hooker's, especially last fall. In 2021, his first year in Lexington after transferring from Penn State, he benefited from an ultra-efficient run game and the presence of second-round receiver Wan'Dale Robinson and ranked 18th in Total QBR. But in 2022 the Wildcats' run game regressed, and the receiving corps was led by a pair of freshmen; Levis battled a foot injury as well and plummeted to 61st in Total QBR. After averaging 6.0 yards per non-sack carry with a 5.3% sack rate in 2021, he averaged 3.4 and 11.3% last fall.

Still, he was interception-prone in both seasons, and while his mobility was severely hindered in 2022, his escapability numbers were never particularly good, at least by the standards set by either Richardson (the other Allen-type QB in this draft) or Allen himself.

Scrambles per dropback (2021-22 unless otherwise noted): Hendon Hooker 11.4%, Josh Allen (2016-17) 9.4%, Will Levis (2021 only) 9.0%, Anthony Richardson 8.7%, Bryce Young 6.2%, Will Levis (2022 only) 4.8%, CJ Stroud 3.5%

Yards per scramble: Richardson 12.5, Young 9.2, Allen 7.9, Hooker 7.5, Levis (2021) 6.3, Stroud 6.2, Levis (2022) 4.2

Sacks per pressure: Richardson 11.1%, Stroud 12.2%, Young 18.3%, Allen 18.6%, Levis (2021) 20.4%, Levis (2022) 32.1%, Hooker 33.8%

If athleticism shows us a player's ceiling, Levis had neither the deep-ball success that suggests a big, accurate arm, nor the scrambling and sack avoidance that suggests excellent mobility and instincts. His 2021 mobility numbers were certainly stronger than 2022's, but they were never Allen's -- he scrambled less frequently and less effectively, and even in 2021 his ability to escape pressure wasn't quite at Allen's level.

Meanwhile, he made more passing mistakes than any of the other top prospects. Maybe he will eventually thrive, in the mold of Allen, but he will almost certainly make a ton of mistakes in the meantime. Whoever drafts him should prepare for major struggles in 2023.
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Speedy said:
If that's the case then that's another mark against Caserio. If it's his job on the line to turn this franchise around, why is he letting placeholders make picks? Still a mark against him though if that's not the case because that means Caserio ignored all the red flags and still went with Stingley.

And yeah, it could still turn out to be a good pick but to take that kind of a gamble that high in the draft is not the kind of rewards you're looking for after enduring a miserable 4 win season. Those picks need to be HRs, not doubles or triples, or God forbid strikeouts.
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You don’t know if that was part of Lovie’s contract that was negotiated. It is not unheard of.

And you don’t want a GM working as a dictator picking on his own. You want him working in concert with the HC. (I hate that phrase but using it cause Caserio uses it all the time.)
 
TexansBull said:
You don’t know if that was part of Lovie’s contract that was negotiated. It is not unheard of.

And you don’t want a GM working as a dictator picking on his own. You want him working in concert with the HC. (I hate that phrase but using it cause Caserio uses it all the time.)
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Is that you Nick...:foottap:
 
TexansBull said:
You don’t know if that was part of Lovie’s contract that was negotiated. It is not unheard of.
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I don’t know if what was part of Lovie’s contract? He gets to make a pick or he’s not gonna be HC? Lovie was hired well before the draft so I don’t buy that one bit, but if that were the case then that’s why this organization is where it’s at.

And I have no problem with a GM “working in concert” with the HC, but it should be about the HC wanting this type of player that the GM gathers his scouting department together and finds, and not HC wants this specific player, go get him. The latter is not how it should work.

Maybe I’m just too old school believing structure within an organization matters, but a GM works personnel, HC coaches. That’s the way it should be. Otherwise what’s the point of having a GM at all? I think HCs, all around the league for that matter, are taking on way too much trying to be de facto GMs. And particularly being a first time HC. Ryans doesn’t need to be wearing a de facto GM hat anytime soon. Telling the GM he needs these types of players to make his systems work, fine. But banging on the table for specific players shouldn’t be on the table to begin with. That’s not his job. Or Lovie’s, or Culley’s, that’s the job of the GM.
 
Porky said:
I think we're getting ourselves a Hooker. First time I've gotten a Hooker that I didn't leave happy.

Someone hold Optimistic Texan's feet on the ground. He might float away in a cloud of happiness.
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Yeah, but did those Hooker's leave you happy?
 
Speedy said:
I don’t know if what was part of Lovie’s contract? He gets to make a pick or he’s not gonna be HC? Lovie was hired well before the draft so I don’t buy that one bit, but if that were the case then that’s why this organization is where it’s at.

And I have no problem with a GM “working in concert” with the HC, but it should be about the HC wanting this type of player that the GM gathers his scouting department together and finds, and not HC wants this specific player, go get him. The latter is not how it should work.

Maybe I’m just too old school believing structure within an organization matters, but a GM works personnel, HC coaches. That’s the way it should be. Otherwise what’s the point of having a GM at all? I think HCs, all around the league for that matter, are taking on way too much trying to be de facto GMs. And particularly being a first time HC. Ryans doesn’t need to be wearing a de facto GM hat anytime soon. Telling the GM he needs these types of players to make his systems work, fine. But banging on the table for specific players shouldn’t be on the table to begin with. That’s not his job. Or Lovie’s, or Culley’s, that’s the job of the GM.
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I don’t think you are wrong as that’s your opinion on how things should work.

I think the NFL is still figuring it out too. A lot of it is luck. You can’t have a HC doing it all like OB tried to. You can’t have a GM and HC on different pages like what we saw in Tennessee.

Successful orgs have a GM and HC that can work together competently. I don’t know what the secret sauce is in San Fran, Philly, Buffalo, Seattle, Cincinnati, or other places.

But luck has a lot to do with it.

And a QB that doesn’t get in trouble with a masseuse at the Houstonian…
 
Which would you prefer:

1. Know now who Texans will select at 2 or trade for.
2. Find out after Panthers select.
 
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