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2023 TEXANS DRAFT DISCUSSION

steelbtexan said:
Caserio spent 20 years evaluating talent for Belichick.
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The problem with this is the theory. IMO, BB is such a great coach of coaches that majority of those players never perform up to their Patriot days that its almost impossible to evaluate what Caserio actually did in relationship to the Patriots. I mean when it comes to the db and oline play, that was scarneckia and Hoodie. They've had lower round and undrafted dbs perform at all pro levels. We've also witnessed those o-line players play the same being coached up by Scarneckia and Brady navigating the pocket and getting the ball out in 2 seconds. BB is arguably not only the greatest head coach, but he is also the greatest defensive coach of all time.
 
Number19 said:
No. Caserio is in contact with all the other GM's and is exclusively involved with trade discussions. I'm of the mind that he will be the one whether to pull the trigger on a trade, after discussing with DeMeco. He will be heavily involved with the first two picks, but first round strategy will be discussed before hand to anticipate possible scenarios.
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Oh I agree on handing trades but In my opinion Ryans tells him who he wants.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
100% evals change on some people in the combine based on measurables. The strength tests for OL/DL is extremely important, as are 40 speeds on the record. These can change perceptions and ratify or diminish the strength of game film. I'm looking forward to it.
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Speed relates to explosion as do verticle, broad jump and power clean. Its about projections and upside when drafting a 21 yr old player. Certain drills at the combine do tell the story about players. The gauntlet is a very important exercise for wr as well as the 3 cone. When the wr is drfiting in the gauntlet, that tells me about his route running ability. The 3 cone tells me if a guy can drop his weight in his route to make cuts. Even if a wr isn't a precise precise route runner, there are other abilities that can be used like his speed, similar to Mike Wallace or Lee Evans.
 
badboy said:
Other than (maybe) pick 2, I do. Caserio is "staying out of the way".
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My thought is Caserio might be setting the "tone" of the draft on whether they go primarily offense or defense, but Ryans will have a lot of say so with the players. I agree with you on pick 2 unless they go defense. If they go defense Ryans will get that pick
 
IDEXAN said:
Andrew Brandt, NfL exec, was on Rich Eisen today and said the Bear's first round pick will fetch three first round picks or
two firsts & a quality player. Thoughts on his prediction ?
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The chance of the number one being traded is better than most years since the Bears think they don't need one. The fact all the dudes have pretty obvious questions and there are 4-5 dues also lowers the value of the pick.

My hope is the Texans don't fall for the banana in the tailpipe and trade up from number 2 to number 1 forcing the Bears to pick the defensive player that Chicago should or forcing one of the other teams pay a steep price for a good to very good non great prospect.
 
AcresHomesTexan said:
The chance of the number one being traded is better than most years since the Bears think they don't need one. The fact all the dudes have pretty obvious questions and there are 4-5 dues also lowers the value of the pick.

My hope is the Texans don't fall for the banana in the tailpipe and trade up from number 2 to number 1 forcing the Bears to pick the defensive player that Chicago should or forcing one of the other teams pay a steep price for a good to very good non great prospect.
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I'm not buying any of that. If the Bears want to deal the pick, there will be a strong market. Three 1sts are not out of the question for teams outside the top 4. And while there are a couple of good defensive prospects at the top of the draft, that's not worth turning down that pick bonanza.

The question I have is, do the Bears want to keep the pick and take Bryce Young? The HC and GM did not draft Justin Fields. Drafting a QB buys these guys an extra couple of years. I don't know for sure which way the Bears will go. But staying at #1 and taking a defensive player is not an option.
 
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I'm adamantly against trading up to 1.1.
It would be incredibly stupid in my opinion.
Let another team trade up for Bryce then take Anderson or Carter whichever is your flavor.

I wouldn't be mad if they pulled the trigger on Hooker at 2.34.
I assume most of you feel that's too early and I don't disagree.
But if they think he's the guy, I'm OK with taking that shot.
I'm also not a fan of Young at 1.2 but if he's there I have to admit I'm curious how it would work out for us, so wouldn't be mad about that either
 
Lucky said:
I'm not buying any of that. If the Bears want to deal the pick, there will be a strong market. Three 1sts are not out of the question for teams outside the top 4. And while there are a couple of good defensive prospects at the top of the draft, that's not worth turning down that pick bonanza.

The question I have is, do the Bears want to keep the pick and take Bryce Young. The HC and GM did not draft Justin Fields. Drafting a QB buys these guys an extra couple of years. I don't know for sure which way the Bears will go. But staying at #1 and taking a defensive player is not an option.
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I am not locked into my opinion on this that strongly outside of not wanting the Texans to trade up to number 1 unless it is silly low or something
 
Thorn said:
If they have to take a QB with their top pick, then as far as I'm concerned anyone but Young. I like Levis over Stroud, but would take either over Young. I'd rather stick out another year with Mills than take Young.
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I was with you until that last statement. Heck no to sticking it out with Mills.
 
It’s funny how many people they’re gonna piss off no matter which way they go, go QB and half the fanbase will be screaming about how much better next years QB class is and don’t draft one half the fanbase will sue them for subjecting us to another season of watching Davis Mills sail passes over receivers
 
Khelar said:
It’s funny how many people they’re gonna piss off no matter which way they go, go QB and half the fanbase will be screaming about how much better next years QB class is and don’t draft one half the fanbase will sue them for subjecting us to another season of watching Davis Mills sail passes over receivers
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I feel like it's more like a quarter of the fanbase will be upset if they don't take a quarterback. Fans know all of these quarterbacks have glaring holes in their game (or physical attributes in the case of Young). There are just a few fans that will concede that and still say "anyone but Mills. Draft any QB so I don't have to see Mills throw another football." I'm okay with Hooker and/or waiting until next year. But I'm not as emotionally invested in the Texans as others.
 
IDEXAN said:
Andrew Brandt, NfL exec, was on Rich Eisen today and said the Bear's first round pick will fetch three first round picks or
two firsts & a quality player. Thoughts on his prediction ?
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I'm not buying it. If there was a CONSENSUS #1 QB type player, then I could see it. But to give that much in a draft where any one of 5 players could ultimately become the best QB is pretty dumb. IMO of course.
 
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Texian said:
True and Texans will continue their mediocrity if they fall for it.
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Not necessarily, because hear me out here.
Wherever you are sitting in this Draft, whether you are Houston , or Indy, or Carolina, etc. lets hypothetically say you've identified
who you consider to be potentially the next Patrick MaHomes. And bear in mind he probably won't look anything like MaHomes, in other words his presence won't be at all obvious just as was the case with the original who remained on everyones Draft Board for
9 of 10 selections of the 2017 NFL Draft before the KC Chiefs changed the destiny of their franchise forever.
Oh BTW I doubt there's anybody like the next Patrik MaHomes in this Draft, but who of you can honestly say you identified the first one before he was drafted ?
 
Khelar said:
It’s funny how many people they’re gonna piss off no matter which way they go
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It's not funny looking at how many ways they can go wrong. Trading up. Not trading up. Taking the wrong QB. Not taking a QB. And they have to agree that whatever move they make is the right move.

If were easy, Jack Easterby could do it.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
I'm not buying it. If there was a CONSENSUS #1 QB type player, then I could see it. But to give than much in a draft where any one of 5 players could ultimately become the best QB is pretty dumb. IMO of course.
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Yeah, it's not like there's an John Elway or Peyton Manning in this draft. If you're giving up that much draft capital, it better be for a QB who's future stardom is obvious.
 
Speaking of crap shoots. Why does it seem that the Steelers seem to always find productive, late round WRs and the Patriots can't find WRs with their early picks? Hopefully, Caserio learned from those mistakes. I came across the article below and it's surprising how bad some of these teams have drafted the past five years.

Every NFL team's biggest draft mistake over the past five years | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Receiver woes

Over the past five years, the Patriots have used four Day 1 or Day 2 picks on either receivers or tight ends. They’ve combined for a total of 84 catches for 900 yards and seven scores in their careers with New England

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The spoils of the Khalil Mack trade

This was obviously re-hashed at the end of the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era, so there’s no need to beat a dead horse. The Raiders had five first-rounders from 2019-2020. The only one who started for them last season was running back Josh Jacobs. That’s rough.
 
IDEXAN said:
Not necessarily, because hear me out here.
Wherever you are sitting in this Draft, whether you are Houston , or Indy, or Carolina, etc. lets hypothetically say you've identified
who you consider to be potentially the next Patrick MaHomes. And bear in mind he probably won't look anything like MaHomes, in other words his presence won't be at all obvious just as was the case with the original who remained on everyones Draft Board for
9 of 10 selections of the 2017 NFL Draft before the KC Chiefs changed the destiny of their franchise forever.
Oh BTW I doubt there's anybody like the next Patrik MaHomes in this Draft, but who of you can honestly say you identified the first one before he was drafted ?
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And if they take the wrong QB that sets them back another 5 years. The chance of that happening is exponentially greater.
 
Texian said:
And if they take the wrong QB that sets them back another 5 years. The chance of that happening is exponentially greater.
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Caserio will probably lose his job if he misses on the high lottery QB and the org is set back, so this is a huge decision. It's not as simple as just getting a QB because you need one. The smart thing would be to slow play and grab Richardson, Levis or Hooker with non-lottery selection because the team isn't all-in on that guy if he fails. And quite frankly, Levis or Richardson might end up being the best QB anyway. There is no consensus this year,
 
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Texansphan said:
5?
Disagree.
Not when you have 2 first round picks in this draft and the next.
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If you're taking Stroud or whoever at #2, Texans are not trading up for a QB in 2024. Caserio and the org are tethered to that guy for 3 years - and it will be a big setback if that QB misses. Of course, a bonanza if it succeeds.
 
ben.aires.smith said:
If you're taking Stroud or whoever at #2, Texans are not trading up for a QB in 2024. Caserio and the org are tethered to that guy for 3 years - and it will be a big setback if that QB misses. Of course, a bonanza if it succeeds.
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Nothing to stop them taking one in the second or third next year.
 

In other words, don't be so concerned if you are the Bears about trading off of a Hall of Famer and moving back. It hasn't been a great list over the last few years. But when you look at those points, here would be the three trades. If we're going to look at those teams as, 2, the Texans, 4, the Colts, and 9, the Panthers, here would be how that would shake out on the trade chart. So if you are just going to go back to pick No. 2, you're going to get the second pick, the 33rd pick, and next year's two. That would be the trade you would have there with the Texans. If you go to 4, would you have to give up a fourth round pick this year. Or, sorry. A fourth round pick in 2024 as well as the No. 1 overall pick. You would get No. 4 overall, No. 35 overall, and a first round pick in '24, and a second round pick in '24. If you want to go all the way to 9, you are going to get the ninth pick, you are going to get the 39th pick, and get a first round in '24 and a first round in '25. So when I look at all those halls -- and I understand you could be trading off of the opportunity to get one of the premiere defensive players there at 2 or 4. If you ask me what I would do, I would be hoping the Carolina Panthers want to pay that price. I'll go to 9, and I'll take all those first round picks and let's go try and fill some of these needs. So those are the three teams I think that will be in the mix, and those are the
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ben.aires.smith said:
Interesting viewpoint. I wonder what type of structure is the most optimal. Guessing both can be effective. Probably many examples of both models working, although more strong head coaches succeeding as you describe stand out to me on second thought.
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I think both could work. But I feel more comfortable with a 1st time GM providing the vision for the team, selecting & evaluating coaching, & selecting players.

A guy like Belichick, Ried, or Arians I wouldn’t have a problem with a HC driven vision.
 
AcresHomesTexan said:
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This is a really good point nobody is talking about either. It's one thing for the Texans to want to trade up , quite another to actually be successful. Any tradeup offer above the Texans (Colts, Panthers, Titans etc) is going to be stronger than the Texans, due to increasing leverage. So even if the Texans wanted to trade up, they'd either have to overpay relative to other teams, or hope no other team wanted to trade up.

A Texans trade up scenario doesn't look likely, from my vantage point.
 
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AcresHomesTexan said:
The reaction I have seen from ex-Gms when a player is faster or slower (or mismatches from workouts) than expected is "I need to go back and look at the tape on this guy"
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I think people realized how mis-typed Travon Walker was after the combine. They had to go back & looking through his tape with new glasses.
 
Texansphan said:
5?
Disagree.
Not when you have 2 first round picks in this draft and the next.
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It’s 5.

You stick some knucklead under Center for three years & you just wasted 3 years. It’ll take you at least two to purge your cap & the players who ain’t buying what the coach is trying to sell.

If on the other hand you build inside out over the next two years, then add a QB, even if he’s a knucklehead it would be much easier to move on.

If you start with QB, you better get it right
 
Xopher said:
My thought is Caserio might be setting the "tone" of the draft on whether they go primarily offense or defense, but Ryans will have a lot of say so with the players. I agree with you on pick 2 unless they go defense. If they go defense Ryans will get that pick
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Interesting. Why do you think casario is setting any tone?
 
thunderkyss said:
It’s 5.

You stick some knucklead under Center for three years & you just wasted 3 years. It’ll take you at least two to purge your cap & the players who ain’t buying what the coach is trying to sell.

If on the other hand you build inside out over the next two years, then add a QB, even if he’s a knucklehead it would be much easier to move on.

If you start with QB, you better get it right
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True but we have seen teams pass on quarterbacks and those players went to the team that drafted them and succeed. While that team that passed on them suck.
 
thunderkyss said:
It’s 5.

You stick some knucklead under Center for three years & you just wasted 3 years. It’ll take you at least two to purge your cap & the players who ain’t buying what the coach is trying to sell.

If on the other hand you build inside out over the next two years, then add a QB, even if he’s a knucklehead it would be much easier to move on.

If you start with QB, you better get it right
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So what stops the team from building in the meantime with the same draft picks and free agents?
 
Lucky said:
I'm not buying any of that. If the Bears want to deal the pick, there will be a strong market. Three 1sts are not out of the question for teams outside the top 4. And while there are a couple of good defensive prospects at the top of the draft, that's not worth turning down that pick bonanza.

The question I have is, do the Bears want to keep the pick and take Bryce Young? The HC and GM did not draft Justin Fields. Drafting a QB buys these guys an extra couple of years. I don't know for sure which way the Bears will go. But staying at #1 and taking a defensive player is not an option.
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The problem I can see is the playing out of.............if a GM chooses a 1:1 QB, he lives and dies by that player's success or failure............a reason that Rick Smith kept avoiding that QB pick for so many years.
 
Texian said:
And if they take the wrong QB that sets them back another 5 years. The chance of that happening is exponentially greater.
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If they draft QB in 23 and miss, they can draft one in 24. Many think we will be in range. If we miss 23 and 24, we will probably be pretty high in draft again so..
 
badboy said:
Nope. Keep drafting until you get your QB.
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Won't happen—doesn't work that way. Team is tethered to that guy for awhile, and the GMs fortunes are tied to him. Caserio won't get another chance to take another lottery QB. And you miss out on a cornerstone positional guy. It's very important to hit on that lottery QB selection so you got to be confident. Caserio is likely looking at it from that perspective IMO, as he should
 
Texansphan said:
So what stops the team from building in the meantime with the same draft picks and free agents?
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Because you have a knucklehead under Center. That's the problem. Everyone knows that's the problem, but the coaches aren't going to make changes because he's their "franchise" QB.

It took 4 years before Dunta Robinson started to say what everyone else was thinking. But that poisoned mindset was already in the team & it was deep. The whole roster was shot, minus AJ by the time Kubiak got here.
 
badboy said:
If they draft QB in 23 and miss, they can draft one in 24. Many think we will be in range. If we miss 23 and 24, we will probably be pretty high in draft again so..
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No where close to the meaning of "draft well"
 
ben.aires.smith said:
Caserio will probably lose his job if he misses on the high lottery QB and the org is set back, so this is a huge decision. It's not as simple as just getting a QB because you need one. The smart thing would be to slow play and grab Richardson, Levis or Hooker with non-lottery selection because the team isn't all-in on that guy if he fails. And quite frankly, Levis or Richardson might end up being the best QB anyway. There is no consensus this year,
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I’m all in for Hooker he was having a fantastic year until he got hurt.
 
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