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By the numbers

mws

Rookie
The thing that has to change is the Texans record against good teams. That to me has always been the biggest indicator that we were not a good team no matter how many AFC South titles we had.

Since 2014 in the regular season we have played 64 games against teams with an above 500 record for the season. Our record is 16-48 .250. That means that against a winning team the Texans have a 75% chance of losing.

Unless we turn that trend around we will never be relevant in the league.
 

The Pencil Neck

Hall of Fame
The thing that has to change is the Texans record against good teams. That to me has always been the biggest indicator that we were not a good team no matter how many AFC South titles we had.

Since 2014 in the regular season we have played 64 games against teams with an above 500 record for the season. Our record is 16-48 .250. That means that against a winning team the Texans have a 75% chance of losing.

Unless we turn that trend around we will never be relevant in the league.
That's really not unusual, though. Most teams are bad against the best teams, even the best teams, especially when you make the calculation over multiple seasons.

IIRC, the "average" is about .35 or so. If we could have a few dominant years, it would get us up to average.

So.

We're due. <sipping Kool-aid>
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
The thing that has to change is the Texans record against good teams. That to me has always been the biggest indicator that we were not a good team no matter how many AFC South titles we had.

Since 2014 in the regular season we have played 64 games against teams with an above 500 record for the season. Our record is 16-48 .250. That means that against a winning team the Texans have a 75% chance of losing.

Unless we turn that trend around we will never be relevant in the league.
Yep, and this will happen only when the talent level has improved.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
This fascinates me. I plugged the formula into my database and got these results. Sorry for the terrible formatting.

2014 | 16 games | 372 Texans | 307 opps | 65 point diff | 4.1 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 9.5 - 6.5 predicted
2015 | 16 games | 339 Texans | 313 opps | 26 point diff | 1.6 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 8.6 - 7.4 predicted
2016 | 16 games | 279 Texans | 328 opps | -49 point diff | -3.0 ave diff per game | 9-7 actual | 6.7 - 9.3 predicted
2017 | 16 games | 338 Texans | 436 opps | -98 point diff | -6.1 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.0 - 10.0 predicted
2018 | 16 games | 402 Texans | 316 opps | 86 point diff | 5.4 ave diff per game | 11-5 actual | 9.9 - 6.1 predicted
2019 | 16 games | 378 Texans | 385 opps | -7 point diff | -0.4 ave diff per game | 10-6 actual | 7.9 - 8.1 predicted
2020 | 16 games | 384 Texans | 464 opps | -80 point diff | -5.0 ave diff per game | 4-12 actual | 6.5 - 9.5 predicted
2021 | 17 games | 280 Texans | 452 opps | -172 point diff | -10.1 ave diff per game | 4-13 actual | 4.7 - 12.3 predicted

You can see that the years where we had a winning record with a negative point differential through it off.
So basically it’s not accurate all the times but that of an prediction.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Since 2014 in the regular season we have played 64 games against teams with an above 500 record for the season. Our record is 16-48 .250. That means that against a winning team the Texans have a 75% chance of losing.
How is the record since 2016? 2020? Has there been any improvement?
 

mws

Rookie
Here you go by year.

year ---games- wins---losses---winPer----Schedule Strength
2014-----8------2-------6-------.250------.500
2015-----5------2-------3-------.400------.312
2016-----8------3-------5-------.375------.500
2017----10------1-------9-------.100------.625
2018-----7------3-------4-------.429------.438
2019-----6------3-------3-------.500------.375
2020-----9------0-------9-------.000------.562
2021----11------2-------9-------.182------.688
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Here you go by year.

year ---games- wins---losses---winPer----Schedule Strength
2014-----8------2-------6-------.250------.500
2015-----5------2-------3-------.400------.312
2016-----8------3-------5-------.375------.500
2017----10------1-------9-------.100------.625
2018-----7------3-------4-------.429------.438
2019-----6------3-------3-------.500------.375
2020-----9------0-------9-------.000------.562
2021----11------2-------9-------.182------.688
The schedule strength column, is that the Texans sos for the year? Or of those above. 500 teams?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
That and get rid of the ridiculous EP offense that we had no idea how to run it effectively or staff for it, looking forward to Peps approach.
Coaching will help but until the ol talent level is upgraded you can expect to see more of what we saw last year.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Coaching will help but until the ol talent level is upgraded you can expect to see more of what we saw last year.
We’re too focused on talent around here. Coaching and preparation was a big factor into our record last season. Nick Caserio with his fascination of changing the lineup was also a key factor into our record. Like Speedy said on numerous occasions, they were tanking, was also a factor into that record.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
We’re too focused on talent around here. Coaching and preparation was a big factor into our record last season. Nick Caserio with his fascination of changing the lineup was also a key factor into our record. Like Speedy said on numerous occasions, they were tanking, was also a factor into that record.
If you think an ol with Christian/ Howard/Britt/ Scharping and Heck will perform at an acceptable level regardless of coaching. Then we will have to agree to disagree.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Why do you think that offense played the way they did in the past 5 games. You do know Mills was barely touched in those games.
Take out the Covid Chargers game and tell me what their YPC was. Yeah gotta fix the OL too. Where we differ is that I think teams are built on solid granite OL/DL are going to be good for a long time. That's just my philosophy.
 
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