You can tell this after 1/2 of football?
PM me some lotto numbers.
Again, I will ask, what talents do the guys in the 1st rd have that Mills doesn't have?
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You can tell this after 1/2 of football?
PM me some lotto numbers.
Again, I will ask, what talents do the guys in the 1st rd have that Mills doesn't have?
Because there's a better than average chance for either Britt or Cannon to get injured.
(Based on their injury history).
The Texans had their first and second round pick (Tunsil).
vtech9
All Pro
I still don't see why all of the hate for Mills.
I know a lot of you either weren't born yet, or don't remember the situation in San Fran. when Montana was drafted. He wasn't rated very high, and there were a lot of fans that were really upset with Walsh for drafting him. The 49ers had a QB, so the fans didn't see the need to draft Montana. If you go back and look at old interviews, Walsh didn't even have any interest in Montana until he went out to work out Dwight Clark. Montana was there to throw for Clark's workout, and Walsh decided to take a gamble, and drafted Montana late in the 3rd round. Montana's rookie season was forgettable. He didn't become the starter until the middle of his 2nd season. His 2nd season was mediocre at best. His 3rd season is when everything clicked, and he became the HOFer we all remember.
I'm not saying Mills will be as good as Montana, or any other QB, it's way too early for that. It's also way too early to say he'll be terrible. Give the kid a chance. If the 49ers would have listened to their fans, Montana would have never been given the chance to become what he became.
I know a lot of you either weren't born yet, or don't remember the situation in San Fran. when Montana was drafted. He wasn't rated very high, and there were a lot of fans that were really upset with Walsh for drafting him. The 49ers had a QB, so the fans didn't see the need to draft Montana. If you go back and look at old interviews, Walsh didn't even have any interest in Montana until he went out to work out Dwight Clark. Montana was there to throw for Clark's workout, and Walsh decided to take a gamble, and drafted Montana late in the 3rd round. Montana's rookie season was forgettable. He didn't become the starter until the middle of his 2nd season. His 2nd season was mediocre at best. His 3rd season is when everything clicked, and he became the HOFer we all remember.
I'm not saying Mills will be as good as Montana, or any other QB, it's way too early for that. It's also way too early to say he'll be terrible. Give the kid a chance. If the 49ers would have listened to their fans, Montana would have never been given the chance to become what he became.
Number19
Hall of Fame
(edit: It's been pointed out this should read passer rating and not quarterback rating)
There's been a lot posted commenting on Mills. Don't know if this has been posted, likely has, but I'm just now reading Monday, Tuesday and today's Chronicle.
Seven QB's were taken before Mills and of these, four have played enough snaps to have a QB rating:
Lawrence ... 57.1
Wilson ........56.1
Fields .........38.2
Jones ........ 96.7
Mills QB rating is 58.1
Win or lose, and it's more likely lose, the next 3 games against defenses which are currently ranked #1, #2, and #3 is going to be very interesting. Too bad we have two starting receivers out for these games. But it'll be a good test for Mills and we'll see if his rating goes up, down or stays about the same.
There's been a lot posted commenting on Mills. Don't know if this has been posted, likely has, but I'm just now reading Monday, Tuesday and today's Chronicle.
Seven QB's were taken before Mills and of these, four have played enough snaps to have a QB rating:
Lawrence ... 57.1
Wilson ........56.1
Fields .........38.2
Jones ........ 96.7
Mills QB rating is 58.1
Win or lose, and it's more likely lose, the next 3 games against defenses which are currently ranked #1, #2, and #3 is going to be very interesting. Too bad we have two starting receivers out for these games. But it'll be a good test for Mills and we'll see if his rating goes up, down or stays about the same.
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The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Just picking a nit but... that's a passer rating, not a QB Rating (aka QBR) which is a different thing. On the QBR, 96.7 is almost perfect.
Tyrod Taylor's passer rating is 122.9, putting him 4th in the league, between Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford.
Texansballer74
The Marine
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
During all the trade talk for DW to the Jets, I wanted Sam Darnold for McKinney and Mercilus...the Jets had a need for LBs at the time.
Number19
Hall of Fame
Thanks, I guess I've never differentiated the two.
I watched Montana made a comeback on my Houston Cougars in the Ice Bowl (and had rewatched the game many times.)
1979 Cotton Bowl Classic - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
He was the guy I wanted.
He already beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl the year prior and has been known to lead ND on several big comeback wins before.
There's really no comparison.
I'm not sure how you think the Niners had a QB when Steve DeBerg had thrown for 25 TDs vs 43 INTs the two years prior.
In Walsh's third year, DeBerg was 10-13 before he was benched (after a 5 Int - game).
beerlover
Hall of Fame
omg like this all on Davis Mills. He’s just supposed to be developmental and insurance only if in emergency. Whatever happened to next man up? Only two days to practice with the first team on short week against the top defense in the NFL. At least we have home field and greatest fans……..right!
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I watched Montana made a comeback on my Houston Cougars in the Ice Bowl (and had rewatched the game many times.)
1979 Cotton Bowl Classic - Wikipedia
He was the guy I wanted.
He already beat Texas in the Cotton Bowl the year prior and has been known to lead ND on several big comeback wins before.
There's really no comparison.
Yeah, this. That comeback against UH was amazing.
Yes, I'd like for him to get his "fair" share.
Speedy
Former Yeller Dweller
Ugh!! You had to bring that up. Couldn't stand Montana from that moment on.I watched Montana made a comeback on my Houston Cougars in the Ice Bowl (and had rewatched the game many times.)
1979 Cotton Bowl Classic - Wikipedia
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Yep. You cant compete and rebuild at the same time which is what this team is trying to do. When all these 1 and 2 yr contracts for the 2nd oldest team in the league expires, whats going to be left? Holes everywhere. What should you have? A young player ready to step in and play especially as foundation pieces.
If it stays about the same or improves to say 65.0 or 70.0 over the next 3 games I will be very happy considering those defenses.
Darnold would've been nice.
I could see Jimmy G here next yr if TT continues to be injury prone and they lose faith in Mills.
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vtech9
All Pro
Even so, the fans in San Fran were about as positive on Montana as TxnsJuggernaut1 is on Mills. Even though Montana was pretty good in college, he still didn't draw much interest from NFL scouts and teams. Montana had a good amount of college experience, but it still took him until his 3rd season to really put it together. Mills doesn't have much college experience, so shouldn't we at least give him this season to see if he has potential?
Hopefully they've found their QB or bring a guy like Jimmy G in. If they get say two 1sts for the 3rd string QB and hit on their drafts over the next 2 yrs, they can add 5 or 6 star level players to the defense through the draft and you've got cap $$$$ to add 2-3 star level FA's.
This is what Caserio is trying to do. Can he do it, Add 7-9 star level players in the next couple of yr. I would say as of now the juries out. I do think Caserio found a couple of guys in his 1st draft. Too bad Collins got hurt.
Montana actually played well the first year he started, which was his second year in the league.
He was the 4th QBs drafted.
Back then a QB with a net positive TD/INT was considered good.
Montana was 15/9 in 7 games.
Here's how all the QBs fared that year:
1980 NFL Passing | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Check out the 1980 NFL Passing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com
www.pro-football-reference.com
If you prorate his number to a full 16 games, he would have led the league in passing TD while maintaining the second best TD/Int ratio behind Bartowski 31/16.
....
As for Texans players, I always want them to be the best they can be.
I have a rule of not talking down players on game day and I would cheer for them as long as they keep playing hard.
(I do sometimes make fun of certain things during the course of the game, but in good nature.)
Critique of their games come afterward; it's part of the watching and learning more and more about the game.
There used to be a complete guide by Bill Walsh on what he looks for in a QB, but I can't find it.
This is part of it:
2021 NFL Draft: How would legendary coach Bill Walsh assess this year's quarterback class?
As we approach the 2021 NFL Draft, what better way to assess the incoming rookie class than by turning to an all-time great evaluator?
www.skysports.com
I use his method to evaluate and Mills doesn't score high overall.
As I've said; I'm tired of QB in the borderline top ten (like what Schaub was for maybe a year or two).
Schaub isn't as mobile as Mills, but he went from one read to the next very quickly.
After some years, Schaub learned to improve his delivery such that it was quick enough to get the ball out on time (which he lost toward the end of his time here in Houston).
Mills has a quick delivery, but he's still slow with his progression.
Yes, it can be improved.
We'll see how much and how soon he can improve.
Also, with the way the league turns over players these days, I don't think it's good to wait too long for a QB to develop.
He might be onto a second HC, sometimes even a third before he does develop.
New coaching staff, new system.
Makes it harder for everybody.
Especially when the GM needs to find all the players to surround the QB and the coaches need to develop those players and teach them their system.
I don't think it's a good formula.
He might be onto a second HC, sometimes even a third before he does develop.
New coaching staff, new system.
Makes it harder for everybody.
Especially when the GM needs to find all the players to surround the QB and the coaches need to develop those players and teach them their system.
I don't think it's a good formula.
OptimisticTexan
2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
I think Culley and his coaches know what they’re up against during this short week. I believe the they’ll script an offense that will help Mills get comfortable and possibly gain some confidence. The running game / TE’s will be the primary factor with Mills being asked to manage the game and avoid turnovers. If successful, the defense should get some decent rest between series which may help keep the game close.
I hate going against the Texans…..but a win sure would do a lot for this team.
I hate going against the Texans…..but a win sure would do a lot for this team.
I think so as well. Their main points will be: 1) Protect the ball. 2) A punt is not a bad thing.
This will be a game determined by field position and special teams. Both teams will be playing not to lose.
Agree.
The running game would better work.
That will help with play action where Mills is most comfortable with.
Mixed in with some screen passes and quick strikes in RPO.
And some more rub routes, of course.
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Number19
Hall of Fame
This is a tough game to predict. With Taylor at QB I was calling it a win, but now, with Mills, it's a toss up.
Our offensive line, and Mills, will be under intense pressure by the #1 defense. It will be on the shoulders of the coaching staff to design a game plan where Mills can get the ball to his receivers quickly. But again, Tunsil and Cannon handled last week's challenge against Garrett and Clowney and I expect them to perform to the same level this week against Haasan Reddick and Brian Burns, who have combined for five sacks between them. The Texans have allowed only two sacks, tying them for second fewest in the league. Carolina has a league best 10 sacks and have also 19 QB hits.
Collins and Amendola will be replaced by Chris Moore and Anthony Miller. TE Antony Auclair has also been activated off the practice squad.
Our defensive backfield has taken a hard hit with starting Safety Justin Reid and starting cornerback Terrance Mitchell being ruled out for the game. Lonnie Johnson will be replacing Reid with Terrance Brooks becoming the 3rd safety. Tremon Smith replaced Mitchell last Sunday when he went out, and will likely be the starter tonight.
Gruger-Hill had an outstanding game against Cleveland with three tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. He will be out tonight with a knee issue and will likely be replaced by Joe Thomas.
The Panthers weak spot is their offensive line and our defensive line will need to pressure Panther QB Sam Darnold, who has gotten off with a fast start. He has speedy receivers in D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey. Our DB's will have a challenge and will need help with pressure on Darnold.
The Texans just have too many critical starters out for this game to overcome a better than expected Panther team. I'm calling it a Carolina win.
Our offensive line, and Mills, will be under intense pressure by the #1 defense. It will be on the shoulders of the coaching staff to design a game plan where Mills can get the ball to his receivers quickly. But again, Tunsil and Cannon handled last week's challenge against Garrett and Clowney and I expect them to perform to the same level this week against Haasan Reddick and Brian Burns, who have combined for five sacks between them. The Texans have allowed only two sacks, tying them for second fewest in the league. Carolina has a league best 10 sacks and have also 19 QB hits.
Collins and Amendola will be replaced by Chris Moore and Anthony Miller. TE Antony Auclair has also been activated off the practice squad.
Our defensive backfield has taken a hard hit with starting Safety Justin Reid and starting cornerback Terrance Mitchell being ruled out for the game. Lonnie Johnson will be replacing Reid with Terrance Brooks becoming the 3rd safety. Tremon Smith replaced Mitchell last Sunday when he went out, and will likely be the starter tonight.
Gruger-Hill had an outstanding game against Cleveland with three tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. He will be out tonight with a knee issue and will likely be replaced by Joe Thomas.
The Panthers weak spot is their offensive line and our defensive line will need to pressure Panther QB Sam Darnold, who has gotten off with a fast start. He has speedy receivers in D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey. Our DB's will have a challenge and will need help with pressure on Darnold.
The Texans just have too many critical starters out for this game to overcome a better than expected Panther team. I'm calling it a Carolina win.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
This morning when I saw the "QB ratings" before I saw your post, I was going to essentially offer your same response.
The article below was written in 2013 and still explains how poor an evaluation of a QB it is............it includes too many factors out of the QB's control, and excludes too many factors that are out of the QB's control.
The QB rating attempts to assign numbers consistent with those factors that the QB himself can be expected to be responsible for.
***************************************************************
Why Passer Rating is not a Good Stat
Passer rating is outdated, complicated, and it isn't the best "advanced" stat out there for quarterbacks. It is time to stop using passer rating.
By rufio Dec 4, 2013, 4:16pm EST
I'm not going to predict a win until we get 10+ yards runs on the regular. 3 or 4 a game. I had it set at 15+ runs, but after the last couple of weeks I see that's not going to happen. I think the OL is doing a good job moving the LOS, but the second level blocking just isn't there & the 1st level blocking, while good, isn't sustained as long as our guys obviously need.
The Panthers go as McCaffrey goes.
He makes contribution even when he doesn't touch the ball.
He makes life easier for his QB in various ways you can think of that a complete back is capable of doing.
He's far from the greatest in different areas, but he can do so many things well, from blocking, be a decoy drawing away attention, besides getting open and catching the difficult passes.
It's going to be tough task for the defense.
He makes contribution even when he doesn't touch the ball.
He makes life easier for his QB in various ways you can think of that a complete back is capable of doing.
He's far from the greatest in different areas, but he can do so many things well, from blocking, be a decoy drawing away attention, besides getting open and catching the difficult passes.
It's going to be tough task for the defense.
Except I don't think the Panthers are going to play not to lose.
Maybe they get stuck in the high of beating the Saints?
It's a Thursday Night game; crazy things often happen.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
The essence of team sports is to put team before self. To become something greater as a team than the sum of the individual parts. That aside and being realistic with the Texans, why CANT they be competitive and at the very least be better as a team than they were last year? You guys have this all or nothing attitude. Its about getting this 1 thing (QB), or this 1 piece (New HC)....or it has to be done this way (tank to get high draft picks so as to get top talent).. This is why so many teams who do amass good enough talent more often than not still fail to even become contenders Because the Owner/GM/HC has subscribed to this 1 sided, all or nothing way of thinking & it doesn't work like that.
Changing a culture doesn’t start when you feel you have accumulated enough talent to compete & win. It starts from day 1 of the regime change when you identify those who want to be here & bring in guys who accept their roles and believe in what you’re trying to do.. While subsequently weeding out those who don’t want to be here. The 1-2 year contracts serve that purpose. & just in these 2 games we've played so far, you can already see that this team under a new regime with guys who want to be here is much better than last years team with a superstar qb.
No, all of these guys won't be brought back, but those who are will likely be guys who not only are good enough, but also guys who know what this regime is about and will fall in line with what they're trying to do.
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Time for Andre Roberts to atone himself.
theathletic.com
Panthers have the league’s top-ranked defense and a kicking game that’s been ‘woeful’
The Panthers are already on their third kicker. And Zane Gonzalez's lack of leg strength means they have to be better covering kicks.
theathletic.com
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
That panther's saints game...it was more about the saints shooting themselves in the foot with bad penalties than anything the Panthers did defensively imo. The Saints stayed in 3rd & long situations, alot of times b/c of penalties & then Jameis did Jameis things a few times.
Should also mention that the Saints were without all kinds of assistant coaches and a few defensive starters due to COVID and injury.
With that said, they tackle very well all across the defense and they have good speed off the edge with Burns & co. But i'm encouraged by how the Texans o-line handled Garrett/Clowney last week so i don't expect the panthers' edge guys to make that big of an impact.
The Panthers these 1st 2 games have blitzed a ton and even when they don't, they like to show it alot & then back out. Teams who like to do that, the best way to attack that imo is to spread them out. Payton for whatever reason kept the offense out there in all these tight formations...& i didn't understand why. extra protection perhaps?
Darnold doesn't want to hold the ball. All i seen him throwing were slants and speed outs in the 2 games so far. When he's not doing that he's doing something off playaction. When he can't get it out quick, he gets happy feet and tends to leave the pocket prematurely at times instead of going to his next read..Signs that the Jets Darnold is still in there. He made a few plays doing this against the Saints, but overall it plays to the defense's favor.
Mills will need to keep his composure with the rush as i anticipate the 1st quarter/1/2 will be rough for him. They'll likely blitz him to death early to see if they can fool/rattle him. Kelly will need to flip his playcalling..meaning on early downs pass instead of run & vice versa to keep the defense off balance & to give Mills some confidence. 3rd and long situations will need to be screens and/or some pocket rolling passes to keep him from being a sitting duck back there. Can't afford to get him hurt.
Should also mention that the Saints were without all kinds of assistant coaches and a few defensive starters due to COVID and injury.
With that said, they tackle very well all across the defense and they have good speed off the edge with Burns & co. But i'm encouraged by how the Texans o-line handled Garrett/Clowney last week so i don't expect the panthers' edge guys to make that big of an impact.
The Panthers these 1st 2 games have blitzed a ton and even when they don't, they like to show it alot & then back out. Teams who like to do that, the best way to attack that imo is to spread them out. Payton for whatever reason kept the offense out there in all these tight formations...& i didn't understand why. extra protection perhaps?
Darnold doesn't want to hold the ball. All i seen him throwing were slants and speed outs in the 2 games so far. When he's not doing that he's doing something off playaction. When he can't get it out quick, he gets happy feet and tends to leave the pocket prematurely at times instead of going to his next read..Signs that the Jets Darnold is still in there. He made a few plays doing this against the Saints, but overall it plays to the defense's favor.
Mills will need to keep his composure with the rush as i anticipate the 1st quarter/1/2 will be rough for him. They'll likely blitz him to death early to see if they can fool/rattle him. Kelly will need to flip his playcalling..meaning on early downs pass instead of run & vice versa to keep the defense off balance & to give Mills some confidence. 3rd and long situations will need to be screens and/or some pocket rolling passes to keep him from being a sitting duck back there. Can't afford to get him hurt.
TxnsJuggernaut1
Veteran
Throwing a young quarterback to the wolves too soon can have unintended consequences. If DM struggles too much it could damage his confidence beyond repair. I think he might be at least solid as a starter but only if he is not destroyed by starting long before he is ready. We shall see what happens. My feelings in regards to DM are not personal. I just don't think he is near ready. I hope I am wrong.
Yes, I was about to note that their first game was against the Jets and the second game was without several Saints coaches.
On the other spectrum; however, the Texans have been generating fewer pressures than their opponents in both of their games.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
True, but they've been consistently getting TO. As far as pressures, with the way Darnold has been getting the ball out so fast on the short stuff, that trend is likely to continue...unless we get ahead late and force him to hold the ball for bigger gains.
That's the thing. The Panthers don't have enough prep time to come up with anything crazy. Meat & potatoes are what's on tonight's menu.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
And if they try to plan unique attacks on Mills, with little time to practice them, it could very well back fire on them. Mills may not be as "mobile: as Taylor, but he has shown for the most part that when rushed, he can get the ball out, step into the pocket, side step, play action, throw the ball away and run when the opportunity arises. He seems to have high football IQ, just needs more game reps.
Byrds Man
Waterboy
The Steelers drafted a quarterback out of Louisville and cut him after the preseason without ever letting him take a single snap.
His name was Johnny Unitas.
Twice in a lifetime. Fixed it for you.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Time for Andre Roberts to atone himself.
Panthers have the league’s top-ranked defense and a kicking game that’s been ‘woeful’
The Panthers are already on their third kicker. And Zane Gonzalez's lack of leg strength means they have to be better covering kicks.
Yeah their special teams has been trash, there's definitely some opportunity there. The other thing too tho, is this will be the Panthers' 1st road game as their 1st 2 games were at home.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
I was thinking along the line of a botched kick, a return for TD, a pick six... Things like that.
banned1976
sleeper mode
With Mills out there do the Panthers even stand a chance tonight?
TxnsJuggernaut1
Veteran
You really are reaching if you have to go all the way back to when Johnny Unitis played. Think you can find anybody outside of Tom Brady or Kurt Warner closer to now? I am sure there is a fair share of good quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later. Of coarse I know that Kurt Warner wasn't even drafted. I do love underdog stories and I have always pulled for the underdogs. I am pulling for DM to be an underdog success story. However the odds are stacked against him for the most part.
Check this out...Success rates of drafted quarterbacks - Mile High Report This link was from 2017 so it is not based on any years after that.
To be fair I am sharing a link below of the best quarterbacks drafted in the third round or later.
Here is a link, "not sure of the year it was posted," to the most successful quarterbacks drafted in the later rounds.....10 Best Late-Round QB Selections in NFL Draft History | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights
I am not saying it is impossible for later round quarterbacks to have success, just that it is very uncommon. It does not help that Davis Mills had limited college experience prior to being drafted. His chances to succeed goes down even more than normal just based on that alone.
I am rooting for the young man to succeed. I just am not convinced that he will. The odds are seriously stacked against him.
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