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[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford

steelbtexan said:
Agreed

And can he deal with the speed/faster processing it takes to play at the nfl level.
Click to expand...

Simply put Mills is a projection QB prospect. Nobody knows for sure just how good or bad he will be. Pep Hamilton confided with David Shaw, Stanford coach, reportedly three times on Mills progress. I’ve see draft 2021 grades from end of first to 3rd rd.

He does need developmental time, more than Herbert got with same starting QB Tyrod Taylor. Hopefully Texans MEDICAL STAFF, don’t puncture his lung trying to relieve muscle strain…. Rest assured he will get tossed into the line-up earlier than later.

Mills has three things going for him.
  1. Elite tool set
  2. Pep Hamilton
  3. Came out early, costing himself money but determined to prove himself.
 
beerlover said:
Simply put Mills is a projection QB prospect. Nobody knows for sure just how good or bad he will be. Pep Hamilton confided with David Shaw, Stanford coach, reportedly three times on Mills progress. I’ve see draft 2021 grades from end of first to 3rd rd.

He does need developmental time, more than Herbert got with same starting QB Tyrod Taylor. Hopefully Texans MEDICAL STAFF, don’t puncture his lung trying to relieve muscle strain…. Rest assured he will get tossed into the line-up earlier than later.

Mills has three things going for him.
  1. Elite tool set
  2. Pep Hamilton
  3. Came out early, costing himself money but determined to prove himself.
Click to expand...
What did he do in college that was elite?

Here is Lance Zierlein's scouting report summary of Mills:

There isn't going to be an excessive amount of tape on Mills, but teams will see a player with below-average mobility, good size and plenty of arm talent for passing attacks looking to open up the entire field. Mills is still in the developmental stage as it pertains to his ability to command the offense and play chess against coverages and blitz looks. He's made for a play-action attack that can promote his timing as a passer and help keep him protected. The injury background and lack of experience are potential stumbling blocks, but the talent is better than the production and worthy of a middle-round pick for development as a good backup to low-end starter.

I believe that is a very fair and objective summary. Nothing in there about elite, although I believe with time he could develop an elite trait (passing, he'll never be known for his mobility), and if that happens he could become a 2nd or 3rd tier quarterback in the league.
 
beerlover said:
when I get off these damn 12 hour shifts maybe I can report some real tape we can both agree on evaluating. Not a big fan of highlights either or talking heads (unless it’s a real scout or person I follow). None of it’s fair, none of it’s conclusive but I can say his release is quick, natural with nice spin. Size/Athletic ability plus. I’m not really worried about the mental side either, but that he does need to show he can grasp NFL concepts.
Click to expand...


I loved the 12 hour shift (DuPont schedule) we worked at the chemical plant.

I didn't need time for evaluating, I let the so called experts do that for me. There are a couple who know the business.

Agree with you on Mills.

I am optimistic about his chance of becoming an excellent NFL QB.

:coffee:
 
banned1976 said:
What did he do in college that was elite?

Here is Lance Zierlein's scouting report summary of Mills:

There isn't going to be an excessive amount of tape on Mills, but teams will see a player with below-average mobility, good size and plenty of arm talent for passing attacks looking to open up the entire field. Mills is still in the developmental stage as it pertains to his ability to command the offense and play chess against coverages and blitz looks. He's made for a play-action attack that can promote his timing as a passer and help keep him protected. The injury background and lack of experience are potential stumbling blocks, but the talent is better than the production and worthy of a middle-round pick for development as a good backup to low-end starter.

I believe that is a very fair and objective summary. Nothing in there about elite, although I believe with time he could develop an elite trait (passing, he'll never be known for his mobility), and if that happens he could become a 2nd or 3rd tier quarterback in the league.
Click to expand...

Have no problem disagreeing with Lance about his mobility. He has a thicker trunk, core weight, than say more athletic lean muscular framed QB’s who have to rely on that quickness to escape. Meaning ideally he is more suited and groomed to be a pocket QB. I’m sure he molded his game after Luck and probably played large part in his decision to attend Stanford. Not like he didn’t have other offers, Michigan State, Ole Miss, UCLA, Georgia and Louisville.
Now I’m not going to quibble over his ranking as four star and #4 Nationally ranked QB, but his choice of Stanford and Davis Shaw program clearly indicates his preparation for the NFL. Zierlein use to frequent this board, we have had discussions, I respect the man and enjoy his analysis, but he does it for a living and has to be protective of his reputation/prospects. Not fair because he has to live off his accountability, I don’t. Call em like I see em, and Mills has potential to be at minimum an average starting QB in the NFL. Does he need to catch some breaks, absolutely, and I don’t mean the fracture kinda breaks. What gives me confidence is he has Pep on his side, great QB coach, it should work out better than Lance and evidently a lot of people here think, but that’s ok. Time will tell.
 
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beerlover said:
Have no problem disagreeing with Lance about his mobility. He has a thicker trunk, core weight, than say more athletic lean muscular framed QB’s who have to rely on that quickness to escape. Meaning ideally he is more suited and groomed to be a pocket QB. I’m sure he molded his game after Luck and probably played large part in his decision to attend Stanford. Not like he didn’t have other offers, Michigan State, Ole Miss, UCLA, Georgia and Louisville.
Now I’m not going to quibble over his ranking as four star and #4 Nationally ranked QB, but his choice of Stanford and Davis Shaw program clearly indicates his preparation for the NFL. Zierlein use to frequent this board, we have had discussions, I respect the man and enjoy his analysis, but he does it for a living and has to be protective of his reputation/prospects. Not fair because he has to live off his accountability, I don’t. Call em like I see em, and Mills has potential to be at minimum an average starting QB in the NFL. Does he need to catch some breaks, absolutely, and I don’t mean the fracture kinda breaks. What gives me confidence is he has Pep on his side, great QB coach, it should work out better than Lance and evidently a lot of people here think, but that’s ok. Time will tell.
Click to expand...

That is so difficult for some of our posters.

But also understandable.

A player has to be above and beyond to get a good rating from Zerlein.

:coffee:
 
banned1976 said:
What did he do in college that was elite?

Here is Lance Zierlein's scouting report summary of Mills:

There isn't going to be an excessive amount of tape on Mills, but teams will see a player with below-average mobility, good size and plenty of arm talent for passing attacks looking to open up the entire field. Mills is still in the developmental stage as it pertains to his ability to command the offense and play chess against coverages and blitz looks. He's made for a play-action attack that can promote his timing as a passer and help keep him protected. The injury background and lack of experience are potential stumbling blocks, but the talent is better than the production and worthy of a middle-round pick for development as a good backup to low-end starter.

I believe that is a very fair and objective summary. Nothing in there about elite, although I believe with time he could develop an elite trait (passing, he'll never be known for his mobility), and if that happens he could become a 2nd or 3rd tier quarterback in the league.
Click to expand...

He's got plenty of mobility in fact he tested better athletically than the Pervert and better than the Pervert in the Wundelich tests. He's got the talent to be a top 15 starter eventually. I give him a better chance of succeeding due to what he's got in his tool chest than Mond for instance. But the odds are long for both Mills/Mond and LZ's buttcovering scouting report reflects this perfectly.
 
I've seen a few highlight clips but never a game play by play. That's all I have to judge him by.

I'll say this, I found him way more mobile then expected. He's no Vick (who is) but he has the potential 2-4 times a game to make plays with his legs. If Zerline was referring to subtle pocket movements to extend plays I can't speak to that.

His arm looked sufficient for all throws.

His accuracy wasn't always easy to determine (for me at least.) Is he throwing his wr's, who never get separation, open or is he throwing into tight windows that won't work at the nfl level? He seems pretty confident in his arm and that might lead to turnover problems early in his career.

I didn't see any elite traits but he has limited field time and is moldable. He was worth a shot and I applaud N.C. for taking a chance considering our qb drama.

Best case scenario imo, he's a #10-#16 qb in the league. I can live with that if the gm can build around him.
 
powda said:
I've seen a few highlight clips but never a game play by play. That's all I have to judge him by.

I'll say this, I found him way more mobile then expected. He's no Vick (who is) but he has the potential 2-4 times a game to make plays with his legs. If Zerline was referring to subtle pocket movements to extend plays I can't speak to that.

His arm looked sufficient for all throws.

His accuracy wasn't always easy to determine (for me at least.) Is he throwing his wr's, who never get separation, open or is he throwing into tight windows that won't work at the nfl level? He seems pretty confident in his arm and that might lead to turnover problems early in his career.

I didn't see any elite traits but he has limited field time and is moldable. He was worth a shot and I applaud N.C. for taking a chance considering our qb drama.

Best case scenario imo, he's a #10-#16 qb in the league. I can live with that if the gm can build around him.
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Same here. That would put him in that 2nd/3rd tier level of NFL quarterbacks.
 
It’s
Thorn said:
Mills will have miles of pass completions and hundreds of TDs.
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How about above Carr and less than Watson?

Here is the beauty if it does work out, cheap contract first four years, enough for Caserio/Texans to restock roster. Then offer him fair contract extension to be the starter and if nothing funny happens, we can actually enjoy a sigh of relief:beer:
 
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beerlover said:
Have no problem disagreeing with Lance about his mobility. He has a thicker trunk, core weight, than say more athletic lean muscular framed QB’s who have to rely on that quickness to escape. Meaning ideally he is more suited and groomed to be a pocket QB. I’m sure he molded his game after Luck and probably played large part in his decision to attend Stanford. Not like he didn’t have other offers, Michigan State, Ole Miss, UCLA, Georgia and Louisville.
Now I’m not going to quibble over his ranking as four star and #4 Nationally ranked QB, but his choice of Stanford and Davis Shaw program clearly indicates his preparation for the NFL. Zierlein use to frequent this board, we have had discussions, I respect the man and enjoy his analysis, but he does it for a living and has to be protective of his reputation/prospects. Not fair because he has to live off his accountability, I don’t. Call em like I see em, and Mills has potential to be at minimum an average starting QB in the NFL. Does he need to catch some breaks, absolutely, and I don’t mean the fracture kinda breaks. What gives me confidence is he has Pep on his side, great QB coach, it should work out better than Lance and evidently a lot of people here think, but that’s ok. Time will tell.
Click to expand...
It looks like you're really enthusiastic about Mills and expect great things from him. So, is there anything that concerns you about his progression? Any holes in his game?
 
Obviously it will be focused around reading defenses, quickly recognizing windows and pulling the trigger with timing. Weakness is improvisation.

Physically, mostly muscle memory, learning to perfect snap count and gain confidence with OL. Pep will work on his mechanics, footwork and throwing motion.

Hoping for a poor mans Andrew Luck prototype.
 
beerlover said:
Hoping for a poor mans Andrew Luck prototype.
Click to expand...
I've never been an Andrew Luck fan. But I always respected his football IQ. Little things like drawing the defense offsides with the hard count. Knowing to get his team to the line & snap the ball to prevent a challenge, or catch 12 men on the field... or a bunch of other little things that put his team in a favorable position.

Aaron Rodgers & Peyton Manning did these things at that level.


Other than that, hated the guy.
 
beerlover said:
Obviously it will be focused around reading defenses, quickly recognizing windows and pulling the trigger with timing. Weakness is improvisation.

Physically, mostly muscle memory, learning to perfect snap count and gain confidence with OL. Pep will work on his mechanics, footwork and throwing motion.

Hoping for a poor mans Andrew Luck prototype.
Click to expand...

I do think he gets a little sloppy with his footwork at times and it throws off his accuracy, particularly outside the numbers. Good coaching can help him correct this.
 
banned1976 said:
Texans record is 135-169-0. I believe Luck handed the Texans 7 (one was a playoff victory) of those 169 losses and the Texans won 4 against the Luck led Colts.

The Colts are 30-9 against the Texans, I believe that’s right.
Click to expand...

One could argue that Peyton Manning’s stats are inflated because he had to play the expansion team Texans twice a year.
 
TexansBull said:
One could argue that Peyton Manning’s stats are inflated because he had to play the expansion team Texans twice a year.
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And anybody who argued that would be an idiot.

Love how some people are so hell bent on discrediting anyone anymore, that they’ll reach for stupid shit like that and think it’s legitimate. Hell, there’s a thread on this board where someone thinks there’s not much difference between Bill O’Brien and Bill Belichick.

A lot of brain dead in this world.
 
Here’s the thing to remember, Mill’s has all the traits to be considered a solid pick in the third round as a project QB with some high upsides and workable downsides and any other team picking him that’s exactly what people would be saying.

Problem is Texans didn’t have a pick till the third round so by default people analysis and treat it like it was a first round pick. Mills was like Caserio’s buying insurance in blackjack, everyone knows not to do it until your staring at the dealer showing an ace. I think Caserio believes either he can get Watson at QB again or trade him for a boat load of picks but then there is that “what if” that creeps in. Mills was the answer to that “what if” question,
 
maverick512000 said:
Here’s the thing to remember, Mill’s has all the traits to be considered a solid pick in the third round as a project QB with some high upsides and workable downsides and any other team picking him that’s exactly what people would be saying.

Problem is Texans didn’t have a pick till the third round so by default people analysis and treat it like it was a first round pick. Mills was like Caserio’s buying insurance in blackjack, everyone knows not to do it until your staring at the dealer showing an ace. I think Caserio believes either he can get Watson at QB again or trade him for a boat load of picks but then there is that “what if” that creeps in. Mills was the answer to that “what if” question,
Click to expand...

Mills was a RD3 pick in 2021…..many analyst had him as a solid RD1 pick in 2022 had he decided to stay at Stanford. I believe Mills had 2 solid reasons on why he bolted Stanford early while possibly leaving many zero’s on the signing table.

1. C-19 isn’t done and the way CA reacted would certainly leave many young players wondering if the 2022 season is guaranteed.

2. The recruited talent at Stanford wasn’t top notch or strong enough to compete with the stronger D-1 schools which equates to Mills having to fight a big uphill battle or wait until the Combine and his Pro Day to truly wow evaluators and coaches.

Mills needs to be a willing student at the NFL level and there’ll be a good chance that he see’s that RD1 payday in 4 years.
 
What Mills "will" be or "could have been" are all just assumptions.

The only thing I feel comfortable in saying right now about Mills is that he'll get a chance to compete in the NFL. What he does with that opportunity is entirely up to him.

As he relates to the Texans future, if he really shines they won't have to use a valuable draft pick on a quarterback in 2022. That would be ideal. Worst case scenario, he looks like a deer in headlights when given an opportunity, shrinks under the pressure at this level. Even then, though, the Texans would only be out a 3rd round pick. My guess, based on previous examples, he'll fall somewhere in between those two extremes which would leave the Texans with a difficult decision in 2022. At this point, I'm not enthused at the projected 1st round quarterback draft talent in 2022. But that could change. We've had recent examples of guys that come out of seemingly nowhere. Joe Burrow comes immediately to mind. For his first two years in college, he went largely under the radar in Ohio. Then he transfers to LSU in 2018, won the starting job and had a really good season. But in 2019, he was special.

Maybe something like that happens again and the Texans are Johnny-on-the-spot. Or maybe Mills makes that irrelevant. Nobody really knows.
 
steelbtexan said:
I would say this determination will take much longer than your time table.
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I think he's saying we'll know what the Texans think of Mills by what they do in the 2022 draft.

If they draft a QB with a high draft pick, they don't see Mills as the future.
 
thunderkyss said:
I think he's saying we'll know what the Texans think of Mills by what they do in the 2022 draft.

If they draft a QB with a high draft pick, they don't see Mills as the future.
Click to expand...

I dont think they will have a full picture of what Mills can be (Like the Chargers have with Herbert) by the 2022 draft. Otherwise I agree with you.
 
thunderkyss said:
I think he's saying we'll know what the Texans think of Mills by what they do in the 2022 draft.

If they draft a QB with a high draft pick, they don't see Mills as the future.
Click to expand...

That may also depend on what QBs are in the draft. If there is a “must draft” like an Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers or Trevor Lawrence then Texans may feel they have to take him depending on how the Watson situation goes.

I’ll admit I don’t follow college but so far I haven’t heard of any QBs really making much noise. Of course that could be due to the covid situation last year. I don’t know, to our college gurus are there any QBs in the next draft that are looking like real super stars?
 
thunderkyss said:
I think he's saying we'll know what the Texans think of Mills by what they do in the 2022 draft.

If they draft a QB with a high draft pick, they don't see Mills as the future.
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Under the worst possible thing to happen to the Texans scenario, Davis Mills will play well enough to have the Texans pass on a QB in 2022,2023 and be a middling Andy Dalton level starter (insert your own good enough to start, but not good enough to win with QB)
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Under the worst possible thing to happen to the Texans scenario, Davis Mills will play well enough to have the Texans pass on a QB in 2022,2023 and be a middling Andy Dalton level starter (insert your own good enough to start, but not good enough to win with QB)
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And I think that is my greatest fear with Davis. I'm certainly hoping I am wrong.

If Davis could be the Andy Dalton of 2015 with 3200 + yards 25 touchdowns with 7 only interceptions I would take that in a heartbeat.

Dalton had struggled with touchdown to interceptions ratio his career.
 
I confirmed this with Keenan Allen interview, he had never even caught a pass from Justin Herbert until game 2 last season (Herbert first start). Meaning JH10 never even practiced with first team. I say that to say this, Mills will accept that pressure if given the opportunity, but let’s hope that doesn’t happen as soon as it did to Herbert.

I’ve read this article and it gives Mills the chance to be the #2 behind Taylor and practice with the second team. Let me repeat that, practice with the second team. Can we not make that same mistake? Why can’t he get some reps with first team? He needs to be better prepared just in case.

The more snaps Mills sees in camp, the more it could show what direction Houston will be headed beyond 2021. Either way, Mills' snap count this summer could correlate to the plan for Houston's draft come April of 2022.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si...counting-qb-rookie-david-mills-snaps-news-nfl
 
beerlover said:
I confirmed this with Keenan Allen interview, he had never even caught a pass from Justin Herbert until game 2 last season (Herbert first start). Meaning JH10 never even practiced with first team. I say that to say this, Mills will accept that pressure if given the opportunity, but let’s hope that doesn’t happen as soon as it did to Herbert.

I’ve read this article and it gives Mills the chance to be the #2 behind Taylor and practice with the second team. Let me repeat that, practice with the second team. Can we not make that same mistake? Why can’t he get some reps with first team? He needs to be better prepared just in case.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si...counting-qb-rookie-david-mills-snaps-news-nfl
Click to expand...
If Tyrod had been here for six seasons in the same offense, I could see your point. But if we’re trying to win games, & I’m not entirely sold that we are, Tyrod will need as many 1st team reps as he can get.
 
thunderkyss said:
If Tyrod had been here for six seasons in the same offense, I could see your point. But if we’re trying to win games, & I’m not entirely sold that we are, Tyrod will need as many 1st team reps as he can get.
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If he is not the future, you must prepare for the future. Texans need to see what they got before they throw him in a real game. If he can’t handle first team reps then it’s wise to keep him on the bench until he’s ready.
 
beerlover said:
If he is not the future, you must prepare for the future. Texans need to see what they got before they throw him in a real game. If he can’t handle first team reps then it’s wise to keep him on the bench until he’s ready.
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Like I said, I don’t know what the Texans are trying to do in 2021, or what their plans are for Tyrod Taylor. He might be our Rich Gannon allowing Mills to work his way from third to second string, to starter.
 
Maybe they don't either? It's rare to have a connection that evolves naturally. That's why it has been so hard for me as a Texan fan to see this franchise fall apart at the seams these past couple years. DeAndre Hopkins, gone! JJ Watt, gone! Deshaun Watson, soon to be, gone! All Franchise Players, and for freaking what? There is still so much turmoil and change coming, who even knows what the future brings, but rest assured one thing, Mills will get his swing, and I hope its a big one.
 
beerlover said:
Maybe they don't either? It's rare to have a connection that evolves naturally. That's why it has been so hard for me as a Texan fan to see this franchise fall apart at the seams these past couple years. DeAndre Hopkins, gone! JJ Watt, gone! Deshaun Watson, soon to be, gone! All Franchise Players, and for freaking what? There is still so much turmoil and change coming, who even knows what the future brings, but rest assured one thing, Mills will get his swing, and I hope its a big one.
Click to expand...

I'm glad change is happening. It needed to happen, the trash badly needed to be taken out.

I didn't think they could win a SB with the players they had, so every yr was a wasted yr. Atleast now there's hope that the team will be built correctly. If Caserio hits on Mills that would be a great start to the rebuild. Keep on swinging, I see Collins as a big swing too. I dont like this move for Miller.
 
beerlover said:
Maybe they don't either? It's rare to have a connection that evolves naturally. That's why it has been so hard for me as a Texan fan to see this franchise fall apart at the seams these past couple years. DeAndre Hopkins, gone! JJ Watt, gone! Deshaun Watson, soon to be, gone! All Franchise Players, and for freaking what? There is still so much turmoil and change coming, who even knows what the future brings, but rest assured one thing, Mills will get his swing, and I hope its a big one.
Click to expand...
TBH those franchise players didn’t bring glory in the post season. Sure turmoil and change is coming and for good reason. This team needed a paradigm shift. something as complete as bringing a Borneo tribe to work in downtown Manhattan. OB gone was step one. hiring a GM with clearly a new paradigm was the second step followed by hiring what appear to be some respected position coaches. Say what you will about DC but his comments give me some comfort that he knows exactly how he wants this team to practice and play. I also see him as a disciplinarian, nothing in the mold of OB’s bs style. He will have the command and respect of this team. I think the chance he gives Mills will be nothing more or less than what he gives to everyone else in TC. Mills has to earn it.
 
beerlover said:
I confirmed this with Keenan Allen interview, he had never even caught a pass from Justin Herbert until game 2 last season (Herbert first start). Meaning JH10 never even practiced with first team. I say that to say this, Mills will accept that pressure if given the opportunity, but let’s hope that doesn’t happen as soon as it did to Herbert.

I’ve read this article and it gives Mills the chance to be the #2 behind Taylor and practice with the second team. Let me repeat that, practice with the second team. Can we not make that same mistake? Why can’t he get some reps with first team? He needs to be better prepared just in case.

The more snaps Mills sees in camp, the more it could show what direction Houston will be headed beyond 2021. Either way, Mills' snap count this summer could correlate to the plan for Houston's draft come April of 2022.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si...counting-qb-rookie-david-mills-snaps-news-nfl
Click to expand...
Uhmm, no.
Herbert took first team reps on the first day of TC.

www.ocregister.com

Chargers’ training-camp headliner Justin Herbert impresses without fans

Even with no fans present, there was a lot of attention on Herbert, who made a handful of impressive throws during the team’s first workout in pads.
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com

247sports.com

Justin Herbert getting reps against the first team defense

...
247sports.com 247sports.com
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm glad change is happening. It needed to happen, the trash badly needed to be taken out.

I didn't think they could win a SB with the players they had, so every yr was a wasted yr. Atleast now there's hope that the team will be built correctly. If Caserio hits on Mills that would be a great start to the rebuild. Keep on swinging, I see Collins as a big swing too. I dont like this move for Miller.
Click to expand...

Agree.

Miller? Another guy with untapped potential? I think Caserio trusts his coaches to find out.
I imagine we will see these types of players churning the roster, even during the season.
Caserio is on record about his low value of late round draft picks.

I'm all for shaking the bushes and see what falls out. I like what he has done so far.
Reminds me of the "boss" sifting through items in the clearance isle at wally world.
Keeps her happy, saves me a few $. Win win. :D

:coffee:
 
76Texan said:
Uhmm, no.
Herbert took first team reps on the first day of TC.

www.ocregister.com

Chargers’ training-camp headliner Justin Herbert impresses without fans

Even with no fans present, there was a lot of attention on Herbert, who made a handful of impressive throws during the team’s first workout in pads.
www.ocregister.com www.ocregister.com

247sports.com

Justin Herbert getting reps against the first team defense

...
247sports.com 247sports.com
Click to expand...

Funny Keenan would not remember this? Maybe what he meant to say was in actual game? Regardless, I stand corrected, this is not what I was led to believe.
 
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