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Watson & Tunsil Contracts

Mr teX said:
The Colts don’t scare me...They’ve really got nothing on the outside for Rivers to get the ball to......Hilton and Marlon Mack are injury machines...Taylor is a rookie and then there’s Rivers, who’s a sack magnet and TO machine. They’ll likely be facing the same issues this year.
Click to expand...
Where did you get the sack magnet thing from?
Rivers is a guy that's hard to sack because he gets rid of the ball quickly when needed.
Last year, with an O-line ranked near the bottom in pass protection, he was sacked 34 times in 591 attempts.
In contrast, with a slightly improved O-line, DW4 was sacked 44 times in 495 attempts.

Rivers totaled 109 fumbles in his career (regular season games); he averaged 1 fumble every 73 touches (pass attempts + rushing attempts). His INT ratio is 2.6%

Watson fumbles the ball on a more frequent basis (once every 64.6 touches).
His INT ration is 2.4%, slightly lower than Rivers.

Those are just raw numbers, but I definitely know that you can't find any proof that Rivers is a turnover machine.

I can guarantee you that those numbers will come down this year with the offensive line that the Colts have.
Not to mention all the weapons, including the two RBs that will provide him with a rushing attack he didn't have with the Chargers (rookie or not). Don't go to sleep on Hines who had 44 receptions same as Duke (but with fewer targets). And you'll hear from Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman, Jr., too.

Rivers won't be asked to carry the team with this rushing attack.
The young/new kicker they got is plenty good, too.

There's no conspiracy theory when the majority of people (including Vegas) pick the Colts to win the division this year.

NFL Futures: Super Bowl 57 Odds & Betting Lines For 2023

See the latest NFL Futures: Super Bowl 57 Odds. See Eagles and Chiefs and their odds to win the Super Bowl.
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CloakNNNdagger said:
You've got to be kidding.
Click to expand...
No kidding at all.
Strictly from a business standpoint, if I was his agent, I would strongly recommend him to try to get a new deal. It will most likely be his last mega contract. If he waits until next year, he might get screwed over like AJ.
Even not at his best, he still is the best defensive player on the team.
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
both had that choice of not taking the money from an organization which may or may not have been good enough to put a truly competitive team around them...it is easy for me to say don't take the life-changing deal from a team, but at least in the case of Detroit that's been below average football organization for a really long time
Click to expand...

I understand. Still...
 
76Texan said:
If he waits until next year, he might get screwed over like AJ.
Even not at his best, he still is the best defensive player on the team.
Click to expand...

Right, Texans might draft his replacement. Last couple of months, he was in a strong position.
 
76Texan said:
No kidding at all.
Strictly from a business standpoint, if I was his agent, I would strongly recommend him to try to get a new deal. It will most likely be his last mega contract. If he waits until next year, he might get screwed over like AJ.
Even not at his best, he still is the best defensive player on the team.
Click to expand...
No one in their right minds would entertain giving him a "mega contract" at this point unless it's for this franchise feeling a great need to avoid especially a houston PR controversy for a local "hero." Watt's body is demonstrating a continued degeneration. Time is not on his side.

BTW, the last thing he can claim after being paid for 64 games in the past 4 years while only playing 32 games........is getting screwed.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
No one in their right minds would entertain giving him a "mega contract" at this point unless it's for this franchise feeling a great need to avoid especially a houston PR controversy for a local "hero." Watt's body is demonstrating a continued degeneration. Time is not on his side.

BTW, the last thing he can claim after being paid for 64 games in the past 4 years while only playing 32 games........is getting screwed.
Click to expand...
All in the eyes of the beholders.
 
thunderkyss said:
Right, Texans might draft his replacement. Last couple of months, he was in a strong position.
Click to expand...
He might be betting on himself.
Or he's in the same mold with A J.
We all know the business of the NFL.
As a representative of a player, the agent can only present what he thinks is best for the player.
But if the player decides to live with his legacy and takes on the risk, it's still his call.
The Texans don't have the draft resource to find his replacement though.
But they can cut him next year and use that money to sign a free agent.
Nothing good out there though.

CloakNNNdagger said:
It helps when the eyes have a strong connection to the brain.
Click to expand...
Doesn't have to do with anything.
 
76Texan said:
NFL teams can buy insurance to minimize their financial loss in case of an injury to players.
This article discusses the case of Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

www.google.com

NFL teams, players both often get insurance for potential injuries

NFL teams, players both often get insurance for potential injuries
www.google.com www.google.com
Click to expand...

Your article's attempted characterization of protective sports insurance policies are entirely misleading. Most "loss of value" policies are best applied to college players intending to enter the NFL with limited wear, light injury history, and great capacity for future earnings...........and even so, the policies with the best coverage are very expensive and yet carry firm exclusions and limitations. The latter factors make these policies much less attractive, especially for veterans like Watt with significant history of major injuries. The article is outdated in that companies offering these policies have shrunk to less than a handful, and these policies have since been assigned much more restrictive terms. But just like in the case of Manning, they would not cover reinjury even related to a previous injury (in his case, his neck.......his greatest risk for "loss of value"). Team protective policies have followed that same restrictive route as those laid out for players. To say the least, I have had extensive first-hand experience with this subject both with my patients and myself.

From a 2019 discussion regarding Clowney in the the TEXANSTALK ARCHIVES [Be sure to expand and read the entire first post.]:

CloakNNNdagger said:
It's not that simple.....specifically for Clowney. There are typical standard potential "exclusions" or "limitations" to such "loss of value" insurance policies.:

- Pre-existing injuries or illnesses

- Degenerative conditions

- Osteoarthritis

- Psychological disorders

- Alcohol or illegal substance abuse

- Criminal acts

Most are capped at $3-10 million. Most loss-of-value insurance is written through Lloyd’s of London. At one point in time, I carried a Loyd's loss of value policy on my hands. For football players, Lloyd’s International Specialty Insurance describes the coverage as:

Loss of Value Insurance is a personal accident policy designed to protect a player’s current market value while they play out their final season under their current contract as they head towards free agency. The insurance agrees to protect 50% of a player’s expected next contract against the perils of injury, illness, or death.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

mussop said:
So in other words it’s a stupid suggestion?
Click to expand...
CloakNNNdagger said:
Not a stupid suggestion necessarily. Just probably not the level of long term "protection" that Clowney at this point in time with his injury history feels he is worth. It's like any accident insurance..........based on risk...........the greater the accident history, the more expensive the coverage.........and the more restrictive the coverage.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
76Texan said:
Where did you get the sack magnet thing from?
Rivers is a guy that's hard to sack because he gets rid of the ball quickly when needed.
Last year, with an O-line ranked near the bottom in pass protection, he was sacked 34 times in 591 attempts.
In contrast, with a slightly improved O-line, DW4 was sacked 44 times in 495 attempts.

Rivers totaled 109 fumbles in his career (regular season games); he averaged 1 fumble every 73 touches (pass attempts + rushing attempts). His INT ratio is 2.6%

Watson fumbles the ball on a more frequent basis (once every 64.6 touches).
His INT ration is 2.4%, slightly lower than Rivers.

Those are just raw numbers, but I definitely know that you can't find any proof that Rivers is a turnover machine.

I can guarantee you that those numbers will come down this year with the offensive line that the Colts have.
Not to mention all the weapons, including the two RBs that will provide him with a rushing attack he didn't have with the Chargers (rookie or not). Don't go to sleep on Hines who had 44 receptions same as Duke (but with fewer targets). And you'll hear from Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman, Jr., too.

Rivers won't be asked to carry the team with this rushing attack.
The young/new kicker they got is plenty good, too.

There's no conspiracy theory when the majority of people (including Vegas) pick the Colts to win the division this year.

NFL Futures: Super Bowl 57 Odds & Betting Lines For 2023

See the latest NFL Futures: Super Bowl 57 Odds. See Eagles and Chiefs and their odds to win the Super Bowl.
www.vegasinsider.com www.vegasinsider.com
Click to expand...

Learn to differentiate between styles of play dude. Just b/c Rivers was sacked less than DW4 doesn't mean that Rivers isn't a sack magnet.

& mdy proof is in watching him play over the years. You did this with Keenum. You list out all these numbers you want to make him look good & any number that doesn't, you put forth all these excuses all the while ignoring the reality which is, Keenum is still looked upon by the league as a 3rd string/back up qb at best. Likewise with Rivers there's a reason SD/LA moved on from him. 20 int seasons aren't good no matter how many TD's you throw & he's had like 4 seasons where he's done that.

He's a statue period. Does that mean that he will always get sacked? no, but he is a sack magnet & you can best believe D-linemen lick their chops in 3rd & long situations against him. The same thing you commend him for (getting rid of the ball on time) is part of the reason why he turns the ball over so much...... when he's not fumbling it in a sack fumble situations. He's trying to get rid of the ball too soon before he gets sacked &/or he's just being too damn aggressive.

Like i said, the Colts don't scare me. We've split with them pretty much every year since we've had DW4. Even when they had Luck, a much better QB than Rivers is at this point & i don't see how they've gotten all that much better since they had him.

You also must be pretty desperate if you're reffering to handicappers in Vegas. They picked The Browns to do something last year....The Jags were supposed to win the division in 2018 after their AFCCG run in 2017 & on & on. Fact is, try as they might, they can't factor in what things like injuries will do to a team. And now we have the ultimate equalizer in an abbreviated start to the season to account for. Furthermore, who gives a rip who wins the division, The # of playoff teams has been expanded for this year making division championships even more irrelevant than they were before.
 
Mr teX said:
Learn to differentiate between styles of play dude. Just b/c Rivers was sacked less than DW4 doesn't mean that Rivers isn't a sack magnet.

& mdy proof is in watching him play over the years. You did this with Keenum. You list out all these numbers you want to make him look good & any number that doesn't, you put forth all these excuses all the while ignoring the reality which is, Keenum is still looked upon by the league as a 3rd string/back up qb at best. Likewise with Rivers there's a reason SD/LA moved on from him. 20 int seasons aren't good no matter how many TD's you throw & he's had like 4 seasons where he's done that.

He's a statue period. Does that mean that he will always get sacked? no, but he is a sack magnet & you can best believe D-linemen lick their chops in 3rd & long situations against him. The same thing you commend him for (getting rid of the ball on time) is part of the reason why he turns the ball over so much...... when he's not fumbling it in a sack fumble situations. He's trying to get rid of the ball too soon before he gets sacked &/or he's just being too damn aggressive.

Like i said, the Colts don't scare me. We've split with them pretty much every year since we've had DW4. Even when they had Luck, a much better QB than Rivers is at this point & i don't see how they've gotten all that much better since they had him.
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Sometimes, you like to argue just to argue.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

I'll get to the rest later.
 
76Texan said:
No kidding at all.
Strictly from a business standpoint, if I was his agent, I would strongly recommend him to try to get a new deal. It will most likely be his last mega contract. If he waits until next year, he might get screwed over like AJ.
Even not at his best, he still is the best defensive player on the team.
Click to expand...
So if I read that right, you’re saying JJ asks for more money so that OB trades him for a 4th and a gunner?
 
If the Texans aren’t in the race and JJ’s having a solid season....I’d be good with the team checking the interest of Green Bay if they’re playing for something.

It would be great for both teams. Texans clear cap space and pick up a couple of picks while the Packers get a local icon for the stretch run.
 
Mr teX said:
You did this with Keenum. You list out all these numbers you want to make him look good & any number that doesn't, you put forth all these excuses all the while ignoring the reality which is, Keenum is still looked upon by the league as a 3rd string/back up qb at best.
Click to expand...
All I ever did regarding Case Keenum was saying that he's a whole lot better than third string status.
He's among the better back up QBs for several years now, and he can be rely on to keep a game close for the most part.
If he's the starter, you don't pay him an arm and a leg.
Use that extra money to spend on other positions to help win the games.

The numbers that matter the most is the $36,569,176 he already had in the bank, with more coming if he just stays healthy (which is what all QBs need to do to earn the money.)

Case Keenum Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Case Keenum contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history
overthecap.com

That is definitely NOT third string QB money.
That's not back-up QB money either.
Several QBs drafted in the first round didn't even earn that much.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
If the Texans aren’t in the race and JJ’s having a solid season....I’d be good with the team checking the interest of Green Bay if they’re playing for something.

It would be great for both teams. Texans clear cap space and pick up a couple of picks while the Packers get a local icon for the stretch run.
Click to expand...
Dang if I suggested that I'd be run out of town.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
If the Texans aren’t in the race and JJ’s having a solid season....I’d be good with the team checking the interest of Green Bay if they’re playing for something.

It would be great for both teams. Texans clear cap space and pick up a couple of picks while the Packers get a local icon for the stretch run.
Click to expand...
I think that might be another reason Watt didn't want an extension.
Maybe he wants to keep things open.
After all, his fiance was traded to the Chicago Red Wings this year, I think.
Mr teX said:
You also must be pretty desperate if you're reffering to handicappers in Vegas. They picked The Browns to do something last year....The Jags were supposed to win the division in 2018 after their AFCCG run in 2017 & on & on. Fact is, try as they might, they can't factor in what things like injuries will do to a team. And now we have the ultimate equalizer in an abbreviated start to the season to account for. Furthermore, who gives a rip who wins the division, The # of playoff teams has been expanded for this year making division championships even more irrelevant than they were before.
Click to expand...
You are desperate trying to move the goal post.
Your original contention was that the Colts are in rebuilding mode.
NO Vegas line would have a team in rebuilding mode as the favorite to win the division.

It's obvious that they set these lines with the current rosters of the teams in mind.
Anybody knows that you can't account for injuries and whatever else the future may hold.
The ONLY point is that the Colts are NOT in rebuilding mode.
 
76Texan said:
I think that might be another reason Watt didn't want an extension.
Maybe he wants to keep things open.
After all, his fiance was traded to the Chicago Red Wings this year, I think.

You are desperate trying to move the goal post.
Your original contention was that the Colts are in rebuilding mode.
NO Vegas line would have a team in rebuilding mode as the favorite to win the division.

It's obvious that they set these lines with the current rosters of the teams in mind.
Anybody knows that you can't account for injuries and whatever else the future may hold.
The ONLY point is that the Colts are NOT in rebuilding mode.
Click to expand...
Unlike you, I can discern an opinion from fact and it is in my opinion that as long as u don’t have a franchise qb, you are essentially spinning your wheels and in perpetual rebuilding mode. You feel differently..just leave it at that and move on.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Your article's attempted characterization of protective sports insurance policies are entirely misleading. Most "loss of value" policies are best applied to college players intending to enter the NFL with limited wear, light injury history, and great capacity for future earnings...........and even so, the policies with the best coverage are very expensive and yet carry firm exclusions and limitations. The latter factors make these policies much less attractive, especially for veterans like Watt with significant history of major injuries. The article is outdated in that companies offering these policies have shrunk to less than a handful, and these policies have since been assigned much more restrictive terms. But just like in the case of Manning, they would not cover reinjury even related to a previous injury (in his case, his neck.......his greatest risk for "loss of value"). Team protective policies have followed that same restrictive route as those laid out for players. To say the least, I have had extensive first-hand experience with this subject both with my patients and myself.

From a 2019 discussion regarding Clowney in the the TEXANSTALK ARCHIVES [Be sure to expand and read the entire first post.]:
Click to expand...
OK, so how about the Chiefs and Mahomes here:

www.google.com

Chiefs insure Mahomes' record deal, source says

The Kansas City Chiefs have added an insurance policy to the record-setting, 10-year extension signed by quarterback Patrick Mahomes in July, a source told ESPN's Field Yates.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
76Texan said:
OK, so how about the Chiefs and Mahomes here:

www.google.com

Chiefs insure Mahomes' record deal, source says

The Kansas City Chiefs have added an insurance policy to the record-setting, 10-year extension signed by quarterback Patrick Mahomes in July, a source told ESPN's Field Yates.
www.google.com www.google.com
Click to expand...
I saw that report............notice that no numbers have been reported. Just spoke to my friend, and underwriter for Lloyds of London. He assured me that there will be very stringent maximum limitations on any claims.............and that the patellar dislocation that he suffered last year and any future lower limb injury remotely associated with that injury will be seen a significant factor in what will be covered and what will not. There is good reason for that. The overall recurrence rate of patellar dislocation after an initial event is close to 40 %. In fact, patients who have a primary patellar dislocation have a 17 % recurrence rate, and patients who sustain repeat patellofemoral joint dislocation have a 49 % recurrence rate. BTW, interestingly enough, any Injury Protection Liability premiums and claims payouts will count against the team's salary cap.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
I saw that report............notice that no numbers have been reported. Just spoke to my friend, and underwriter for Lloyds of London. He assured me that there will be very stringent maximum limitations on any claims.............and that the patellar dislocation that he suffered last year and any future lower limb injury remotely associated with that injury will be seen a significant factor in what will be covered and what will not. There is good reason for that. The overall recurrence rate of patellar dislocation after an initial event is close to 40 %. In fact, patients who have a primary patellar dislocation have a 17 % recurrence rate, and patients who sustain repeat patellofemoral joint dislocation have a 49 % recurrence rate. BTW, interestingly enough, any Injury Protection Liability premiums and claims payouts will count against the team's salary cap.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but it's not like the Texans need to guarantee all the money.
Basically, Watt just doesn't have any guarantee money left.
The Texans could negotiate until the last hour (like what the Cards did with Hopkins).

They're ready to pay Watt the $16.67M this year.
Just maybe give him a three year extention (on top of the two years he has left.)
The only guaranteed money is the bonus (let's say between $10-20M), but even that doesn't have to be wholly guaranteed.
This could include the signing bonus plus a roster bonus for each year he's on the 53-man roster.
(Therefore, limiting the risk to an annual thing.)

They only need to pay insurance premium on that amount, and not on the whole contract.
Like I said, just do something to show that Watt isat least in the top ten.

And yes, I knew about the insurance premium counting against the cap space.
 
76Texan said:
Yeah, but it's not like the Texans need to guarantee all the money.
Basically, Watt just doesn't have any guarantee money left.
The Texans could negotiate until the last hour (like what the Cards did with Hopkins).

They're ready to pay Watt the $16.67M this year.
Just maybe give him a three year extention (on top of the two years he has left.)
The only guaranteed money is the bonus (let's say between $10-20M), but even that doesn't have to be wholly guaranteed.
This could include the signing bonus plus a roster bonus for each year he's on the 53-man roster.
(Therefore, limiting the risk to an annual thing.)

They only need to pay insurance premium on that amount, and not on the whole contract.
Like I said, just do something to show that Watt isat least in the top ten.

And yes, I knew about the insurance premium counting against the cap space.
Click to expand...
I appreciate what you are trying to say. But ANY loss of value/injury insurance would exclude those in any way related to his abdominal muscular core tears, his lower extremity adductor tears, his tibia plateau through the joint knee fracture, his elbow dislocation, his pectoral rupture and his multiple vertebral back disc ruptures.........also included would be related degenerative changes and any future injuries felt to be compensatory to his previous injuries. Essentially there would not be much meaningful insurance to be obtained.

The bottom line is that Watt will need to get whatever he gets mostly based on remote reputation and Houston philanthropy................independent of consequential loss of value/injury insurance protection.
 
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