Death to Google Ads! Texans Talk Tip Jar! 🍺😎👍
Thanks for your support!

OptimisticTexan 2020 Projected Draft

OptimisticTexan

OptimisticTexan

2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
First, I wanted to get a feel for where the the Texans might finish the 2019 season to get a better feel as to where they might be positioned for the 2020 NFL Draft.

Next, I looked at some sites to get a feel for projections. I'm listing the ones as I saw as the most reasonable at this point.

TANKATHON for the most reasonable draft position. They have the Texans drafting 57 in RD2 which equates to them finishing with the 25th best record in the NFL. At the moment, I could agree with this since a 10-6 or 11-5 finish could put them in this window.

LANCE ZIERLEIN / NFL projected the Texans to have 2 COMP Picks in RD3 (Jackson & Mathieu) and another COMP Pick in RD7 for Covington. I don't think he took into account the signing of Roby and it negating one of the RD3 guys. I agree with a RD7 for Covington.

I wanted to look at another source for COMP Pick positioning since it appears a few teams could be gaining RD3 COMP Picks.

OVER THE CAP had decent projections for COMP Picks and where teams would fall in those rounds. They had the Texans gaining 2 picks in RD3 for Mathieu / Jackson and a RD7 for Covington. What was interesting, they had another possible RD7 going to the Texans for Lamm......not so crazy based on the amount of starts he had over a couple of seasons. It now appears that the Roby pick-up could negate the RD7 COMP Pick for Lamm. I like that scenario much better.

Projections have 10 RD3 COMP Picks, 6 RD4 picks, 3 RD5 picks, 3 RD6 picks and 12 RD7 picks.

So the projected order I pretty much agree with:

RD1-25-025: Miami (Trade for Tunsil)

RD2-25-057: Texans

RD3-25-089: Cleveland (Trade for Johnson)

RD3-34-098: COMP Pick (Mathieu / LZ NFL & OTC Projection)

RD3-43-107: COMP Pick (Jackson / OTC Projection)

RD4-04-111: Texans (From Miami)

RD4-25-132: Texans

RD5-25-170: Texans

RD6-25-206: New England (Trade For Crossen)

RD7-25-242: Texans

RD7-37-254: COMP Pick (Covington / LZ NFL & OTC Projection)

Roby pick-up negates the RD7 COMP Pick Lamm move in FA according to OTC.

OK, this is the layout.......picks are coming next. Feel free to comment or offer modifications to the projected picks.
 
Last edited:
OptimisticTexan said:
OVER THE CAP had decent projections for COMP Picks and where teams would fall in those rounds. They had the Texans gaining a RD3 for Mathieu and a RD7 for Covington. What wa interesting, they had another possible RD7 going to the Texans for Lamm......not so crazy based on the amount of starts he had over a couple of seasons.
Click to expand...
Overthecap now has the Texans receiving a 3rd round comp pick for Kareem. Roby cancelling Lamm. Also, New England has the Texans 6th round pick (Crossen).


comp-picks-2020.jpg



cancel-chart.jpg
 
Lucky said:
Overthecap now has the Texans receiving a 3rd round comp pick for Kareem. Roby cancelling Lamm. Also, New England has the Texans 6th round pick (Crossen).


comp-picks-2020.jpg



cancel-chart.jpg
Click to expand...

Corrected the RD3 & RD6 picks....totally forgot about the Crossen trade. Roby could negate Lamm but it's interesting the pick they're proposing. I don't think we get 2 COMP Picks for both Mathieu and Jackson but it would be extremely nice if Roby cancels a RD7 COMP pick and the Texans gain the extra RD3 COMP Pick. Thanks for the heads up Lucky.
 
Did you give the round 3 we got for Clowney from Seattle to Oakland for Gareon Conley? I really hope that we get two third-round comps but zuerlein is the first mentioning that. If Roby comes back the last seven games and plays as well as he did pre injury he should be worth more than Lamm. Interesting
 
badboy said:
Did you give the round 3 we got for Clowney from Seattle to Oakland for Gareon Conley? I really hope that we get two third-round comps but zuerlein is the first mentioning that. If Roby comes back the last seven games and plays as well as he did pre injury he should be worth more than Lamm. Interesting
Click to expand...

Yes, Cleveland and Oakland got Houston's RD3 picks. The Browns received the first RD3 pick for Duke Johnson. The second (at the moment) RD3 pick was originally Texans, received from Seattle in Clowney trade, then used by the Texans in the Oakland trade for Gareon.

As far as Roby goes....I don't think he's been good enough to subtract a RD3 COMP pick. The only other COMP Picks the Texans could be looking at are in RD7, therefore Roby could only be subtracted from those options. Maybe if the Texans had RD4 or RD6 considerations could Roby's signing negate one of those.
 
Crazy weekend that went in Texans favor may not be over yet with Seattle playing SF on Monday. This weekend did cause a little movement....so I'll update today knowing that a Seattle loss could change it again.

RD1-26-026: Hou > MIAMI (Tunsil Trade)

RD2-26-058: TEXANS

RD3-26-090: Hou > CLEVELAND (Johnson Trade)

RD3-28-092: Sea > Hou > OAKLAND (Clowney Trade > Gareon Trade)

RD3-34-098: TEXANS COMP (Mathieu)

RD3-43-107: TEXANS COMP (Jackson)

RD4-04-111: Mia > HOUSTON (Tunsil Trade)

RD4-26-133: TEXANS

RD5-26-171: TEXANS

RD6-26-207: Hou > NEW ENGLAND (Crossen Trade)

RD7-26-243: TEXANS

RD7-42-259: TEXANS COMP (Lamm)

I think the NFL will cancel the earlier RD7 COMP Pick for Covington due to the Roby signing. Roby will not cancel out any of the RD3 COMP Picks.
 
badboy said:
Did you give the round 3 we got for Clowney from Seattle to Oakland for Gareon Conley? I really hope that we get two third-round comps but zuerlein is the first mentioning that. If Roby comes back the last seven games and plays as well as he did pre injury he should be worth more than Lamm. Interesting
Click to expand...
update, Roby is still not on field with only five games remaining and I don't expect him to play against the Patriots. He got the signing bonus of 4.5 million dollars and as long as he is on the roster he gets his up to 1/2 million per game bonus. I wished his contract was worded like Duke Johnson and he had to
"play" 10 games for us not just be on the roster to get his bonus.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Crazy weekend that went in Texans favor may not be over yet with Seattle playing SF on Monday. This weekend did cause a little movement....so I'll update today knowing that a Seattle loss could change it again.

RD1-25-025: Hou > MIAMI (Tunsil Trade)

RD2-25-057: TEXANS

RD3-25-089: Hou > CLEVELAND (Johnson Trade)

RD3-28-092: Sea > Hou > OAKLAND (Clowney Trade > Gareon Trade)

RD3-34-098: TEXANS COMP (Mathieu)

RD3-43-107: TEXANS COMP (Jackson)

RD4-04-110: Mia > HOUSTON (Tunsil Trade)

RD4-25-132: TEXANS

RD5-25-170: TEXANS

RD6-25-206: Hou > NEW ENGLAND (Crossen Trade)

RD7-25-242: TEXANS

RD7-42-259: TEXANS COMP (Lamm)

I think the NFL will cancel the earlier RD7 COMP Pick for Covington due to the Roby signing. Roby will not cancel out any of the RD3 COMP Picks.
Click to expand...

Ok....the loss in Baltimore and the win at home nudged the Texans back into the projected 25 spot. Roby still not playing may keep the projected COMP Picks in place. I adjusted the projections above.

Ok, I've been checking and possibly found a player I'd be pretty excited about if he remains as a potential RD2-RD3 prospect and might be there at 57 if analyst are somewhat right.

RD2-25-057: EDGE / Carlos Basham, Jr / Wake Forest / 6-5 @ 275 / This guy is moving up. He has size, burst, and agility to be really disruptive on the EDGE.
 
OK, I'm still all in on adding EDGE, Carlos Basham, Jr (6-5 @ 275 lbs) of Wake Forest to the Texans with their RD2 selection. Most Mocks I've seen see him in the area of the Texans pick, which could make the Mock selection viable.

On another Mock I saw something pretty interesting....it had the Texans taking RB, Travis Etienne (5-10 @ 210 lbs) of Clemson with their RD2 pick. He's a fast RB who could be a difference maker by his 2nd year. He needs work on his hands and blocking but his speed is not teachable it's something you have or you don't.....he's got it. A potential game breaker is hard to ignore in RD2.

Question to those who want to exchange ideas......if both were available, who would you pick with the teams RD2 pick....Basham, Jr or Etienne? Worth noting, both players should have solid ceilings for upward growth.
 
Last edited:
OptimisticTexan said:
OK, I'm still all in on adding EDGE, Carlos Basham, Jr (6-5 @ 275 lbs) of Wake Forest to the Texans with their RD2 selection. Most Mocks I've seen see him in the area of the Texans pick, which could make the Mock selection viable.

On another Mock I saw something pretty interesting....it had the Texans taking RB, Travis Etienne (5-10 @ 210 lbs) of Clemson with their RD2 pick. He's a fast RB who could be a difference maker by his 2nd year. He needs work on his hands and blocking but his speed is not teachable it's something you have or you don't.....he's got it. A potential game breaker is hard to ignore in RD2.

Question to those who want to exchange ideas......if both were available, who would you pick with the teams RD2 pick....Basham, Jr or Etienne? Worth noting, both players should have solid ceilings for upward growth.
Click to expand...

I'd take the DE mostly because I think we can find fast RBs that can't block and needs work on hands. If I'm taking a back that high, he better be a good/capable blocker. We also need some talent on the front 7 on defense. I think our EDGE is weak. We haven't been able to generate a pass rush this season.
 
Not that it makes any difference in Texans draft projections, but Oakland will get the Texans 3rd round pick (for Conley), and the Browns will get the Seahawks 3rd round pick (for Duke), via the Texans in the Clowney deal.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Ok....the loss in Baltimore and the win at home nudged the Texans back into the projected 25 spot. Roby still not playing may keep the projected COMP Picks in place. I adjusted the projections above.

Ok, I've been checking and possibly found a player I'd be pretty excited about if he remains as a potential RD2-RD3 prospect and might be there at 57 if analyst are somewhat right.

RD2-25-057: EDGE / Carlos Basham, Jr / Wake Forest / 6-5 @ 275 / This guy is moving up. He has size, burst, and agility to be really disruptive on the EDGE.
Click to expand...

I haven't checked out Basham but I like a DE over a RB if the talent levels are close. RB's are very deep in this class.
 
steelbtexan said:
I haven't checked out Basham but I like a DE over a RB if the talent levels are close. RB's are very deep in this class.
Click to expand...

Check out this Basham, Jr guy......he seems to have a lot of potential and plenty of NFL ready size and strength. My biggest concern, Basham has a solid combine and b/c of his size and strength he may not be there late in RD2.

If the Texans somehow wind up with a RD3 COMP pick or 2.....how would you feel if the Texans used one of those picks if Jalen Hurts was still on the board? He'd be a heck of a backup to Watson. I only mention this b/c some evaluators have him as a projected mid-round QB in the draft. Not sure as to why but if he were still on the board it might not be a bad insurance pick for the future.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Check out this Basham, Jr guy......he seems to have a lot of potential and plenty of NFL ready size and strength. My biggest concern, Basham has a solid combine and b/c of his size and strength he may not be there late in RD2.

If the Texans somehow wind up with a RD3 COMP pick or 2.....how would you feel if the Texans used one of those picks if Jalen Hurts was still on the board? He'd be a heck of a backup to Watson. I only mention this b/c some evaluators have him as a projected mid-round QB in the draft. Not sure as to why but if he were still on the board it might not be a bad insurance pick for the future.
Click to expand...

I like Hurts and would love to bring him home.

But If I believed Basham was the edge this team is missing I would use this pick to trade up to the top of the 2nd to get Basham.
 
OptimisticTexan said:
Check out this Basham, Jr guy......he seems to have a lot of potential and plenty of NFL ready size and strength. My biggest concern, Basham has a solid combine and b/c of his size and strength he may not be there late in RD2.

If the Texans somehow wind up with a RD3 COMP pick or 2.....how would you feel if the Texans used one of those picks if Jalen Hurts was still on the board? He'd be a heck of a backup to Watson. I only mention this b/c some evaluators have him as a projected mid-round QB in the draft. Not sure as to why but if he were still on the board it might not be a bad insurance pick for the future.
Click to expand...
I'm only now paying a bit of attention to the 2020 draft. My opinion is, we have 3 primary needs, DE, WR and DB.

If you look at the difference in offensive production when Fuller is out, it is apparent to me we need another burner.

Watching the games, it is apparent these new QB's coming into the league are seriously good. We need to upgrade our ability to stick like glue to receivers.

But I'm thinking number one on our need list is the defensive line. The talk seems to focus on our pass rush, and this is a problem, but we have just as serious of a problem with our run defense - when Watt is out. John McClain has an excellent analysis of this. When Watt was in the lineup, we ranked #5 against the run. When he went out, we have currently fallen to #25.

PressReader.com - Digital Newspaper & Magazine Subscriptions

Digital newsstand featuring 7000+ of the world’s most popular newspapers & magazines. Enjoy unlimited reading on up to 5 devices with 7-day free trial.
www.pressreader.com www.pressreader.com
 
Number19 said:
If you look at the difference in offensive production when Fuller is out, it is apparent to me we need another burner.
Click to expand...

But not just a fast guy... we need a receiver that is fast
 
JB said:
But not just a fast guy... we need a receiver that is fast
Click to expand...

I'll be watching Baylor WR, Mims (6-3 @ 217 lbs) when he gets timed in the 40. Supposedly has good catch radius and hands. I'm hoping he's another Baylor burner. Some have him in RD3 and some have him as late as RD5. If his time lands in the low to mid 4.4's......his stock will go up fast.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top