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Texans draft strategy

Seegara

Seegara

Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
It seems like the Texans are committed to solving the QB problem through the draft. My prediction: They will draft the wrong QB and others that were available will have better NFL careers. The front office just doesn't know how to select that position wisely.
 
The problem with taking this many offseasons to draft a QB (an honest effort - not a 4th rd pick) is you give yourself the smallest margin for success. Honestly ob needs lightning in a bottle now imo.

You need savage to be something he's never been or another dak or

A groundbreaking defense or

Great special teams, coaching, and luck.


I think the groundwork is already laid for ob being gone. I dont see that (above) happening and i dont see 9-7 winning the division this year. I dont see us going 9-7 right now anyway. We've seen hints of the turmoil inside our franchise already between ob and ricky. How much until that combusts? 1 blowout? 3 game losing streak? Some unforseen fiasco on a national stage?

I know the offseason isnt over yet but it's easy to take the under everytime in houston football. Sorry sunshiners.

Maybe the shitiest part is we'll FINALLY invest high in a drafted qb this year ,and he probably wont match the next coache's offense. We'll wait 2 years into that regime's tenure counting on his potential.

Essentially, waiting this long to take a shot at a qb and missing has the potential to finish this regime AND THE NEXT ONE.

Guess my glass is half full.
 
Well, I don't expect us to take a qb in the first round as we've only worked Trevor Knight out so far, and there are reports saying that we've been keeping an eye on Webb. Our front office is a damn joke!
 
Mangler said:
Well, I don't expect us to take a qb in the first round as we've only worked Trevor Knight out so far, and there are reports saying that we've been keeping an eye on Webb. Our front office is a damn joke!
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If we could get a Robinson/Cunningham/Ramcyzk/Peppers in the first and a Peterman/Kizer in the 2nd or 3rd I'd be happy

Want no part of any QB in any round who's compared to Brock Osweiler
 
Mentioned this in another thread, but I think their strategy now is to take a QB who is still there at #25 only if it's a guy they like and think they can develop. If one of those guys is not there at #25 then they will look at OT or some other position on Defense (BPA at a position of need). If a QB they like is close to #25 and they are worried someone will "leapfrog" them to get that QB they may move up a few spots to secure him.
 
JB said:
Want no part of any QB in any round who's compared to Brock Osweiler
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When I compared Webb to Osweiler after the Senior Bowl, it was concerning his release. It wasn't his accuracy or his makeup. I just felt that his release was too long, like Brock's. It gives NFL DBs too much time to read the pass and break on the ball. Even if Osweiler had pinpoint accuracy and Patton leadership skills, that long release was going to be a problem.
 
Lucky said:
When I compared Webb to Osweiler after the Senior Bowl, it was concerning his release. It wasn't his accuracy or his makeup. I just felt that his release was too long, like Brock's. It gives NFL DBs too much time to read the pass and break on the ball. Even if Osweiler had pinpoint accuracy and Patton leadership skills, that long release was going to be a problem.
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I'm interested in the point you are making here Lucky but I'm also confused ? Are you saying that you think DBs can read the route or projection of some QBs passes
based upon his delivery much like baseball hitters can read if some pitichers are going to throw a curve, slider, or fastball based upon the pitchers grip or delivery ?
 
I'm talking about from the point where the QB breaks his off hand from the ball to where it comes out of his hand. The longer that takes, the better jump the DB gets. In a game of inches, that can be significant.
 
The Texans Draft Strategy: A day or two before the draft, Ricky McNair will do his obligatory Draft Press Conference. Ricky will announce to all who are listening that draft board is set and that the one thing that you can never do is reach for a need. He will say you must remain true to your board and take the best player available. Then he will slink back in to the Texans draft room taking his seat behind Bob McNair. The first thing the Texans will do like they always have with their very first pick is draft (reach) for a player of need. In addition they like to draft a player or two who is medical catastrophe that they knew nothing about and close it out with a couple players not likely to be found on most other teams draft boards.
 
Lucky said:
I'm talking about from the point where the QB breaks his off hand from the ball to where it comes out of his hand. The longer that takes, the better jump the DB gets. In a game of inches, that can be significant.
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Got it, so OK then you are talking about the "release point".
****
NFL Comparison
Brock Osweiler
Bottom Line
System quarterback with more than 65 percent of his attempts coming inside of 10 yards. Webb has enough raw talent to be considered a developmental prospect, but his decision-making and accuracy issues beyond 10 yards is a big red flag that might be tough to overcome in the NFL. -Lance Zierlein
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/davis-webb?id=2557897
*****
Looks like Zierlein agrees with you.
 
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IDEXAN said:
Got it, so OK then you are talking about the "release point".
****
NFL Comparison
Brock Osweiler
Bottom Line
System quarterback with more than 65 percent of his attempts coming inside of 10 yards. Webb has enough raw talent to be considered a developmental prospect, but his decision-making and accuracy issues beyond 10 yards is a big red flag that might be tough to overcome in the NFL. -Lance Zierlein
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/davis-webb?id=2557897
*****
Looks like Zierlein agrees with you.
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I had a post several days ago about the importance of a statistic call YPA - yards per attempt. Webb has a dismal 6.9 for last season. Mahomes has 8.5, more typical for his gunslinger style of play. Surprisingly, the highest rated QB for this stat is Peterman with an outstanding 9.3.

Your discussion helps illustrate the significance of this stat.
 
Number19 said:
I had a post several days ago about the importance of a statistic call YPA - yards per attempt. Webb has a dismal 6.9 for last season. Mahomes has 8.5, more typical for his gunslinger style of play. Surprisingly, the highest rated QB for this stat is Peterman with an outstanding 9.3.

Your discussion helps illustrate the significance of this stat.
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Peterman also has good production under pressure and has played extremely well on the BIG stage beating DeShuan Watson and the National Champion Clemson Tigers.
 
Mangler said:
Well, I don't expect us to take a qb in the first round as we've only worked Trevor Knight out so far, and there are reports saying that we've been keeping an eye on Webb. Our front office is a damn joke!
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Why would they give away their exact details ahead of the draft? Just to satisfy fans on a message board?
Now that would be a joke.
 
Texian said:
The Texans Draft Strategy: The first thing the Texans will do like they always have with their very first pick is draft (reach) for a player of need.
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Well so far in R1, that (assumed) strategy has worked pretty well for them - they have all been hits (under Smith) while the jury is still out on Fuller.
 
Texansphan said:
Well so far in R1, that (assumed) strategy has worked pretty well for them - they have all been hits (under Smith) while the jury is still out on Fuller.
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I'd say overall Fuller has been a success. True he has more drops than I would like but he's also made some big plays and has been enough of a threat that defenses cant just ignore him. Plus one of the big reasons to bring him in was to force teams to stop double teaming Hop which in that regard he has worked out great.

Now if we just had a QB that could actually get it to them and not the other team I think you'll see Fuller have a good run.
 
maverick512000 said:
I'd say overall Fuller has been a success. True he has more drops than I would like but he's also made some big plays and has been enough of a threat that defenses cant just ignore him. Plus one of the big reasons to bring him in was to force teams to stop double teaming Hop which in that regard he has worked out great.

Now if we just had a QB that could actually get it to them and not the other team I think you'll see Fuller have a good run.
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I think any analysis about Fuller is too early or incomplete. His strong points and weaknesses both were evident. One of the few players who played exactly to his pre-draft evaluation from what I could tell last year.
 
maverick512000 said:
I'd say overall Fuller has been a success. True he has more drops than I would like but he's also made some big plays and has been enough of a threat that defenses cant just ignore him. Plus one of the big reasons to bring him in was to force teams to stop double teaming Hop which in that regard he has worked out great.

Now if we just had a QB that could actually get it to them and not the other team I think you'll see Fuller have a good run.
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I hope he has been working on his hands and has a nice turnaround and turns his second year into a career setter like AJ did.
Then, like you say, pray we have someone who can get the ball to him accurately on a regular basis.
 
Great, another thread reminding me the Texans will forever be a 9-7 team no matter who's in charge or what players are drafted.

Well, maybe it's 2018 then. Or 2019.

We'll probably be landing people on Mars before the Texans do anything.
 
powda said:
The problem with taking this many offseasons to draft a QB (an honest effort - not a 4th rd pick) is you give yourself the smallest margin for success. Honestly ob needs lightning in a bottle now imo.
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That was Brian Hoyer & Brock Osweiler. Or at least what they were supposed to be.

We should have brought in Mike McCoy to run the offense.
 
Should have is pointless. What do we do going forward? In this draft, who is the QB O'Brian wants. Not the QB you want. But the QB O'Brian would want. Is Brady a gunslinger? Does O'Brian want a gunslinger? Or a Brady? Which QB might, not will, be a Brady?
 
Number19 said:
Should have is pointless. What do we do going forward? In this draft, who is the QB O'Brian wants. Not the QB you want. But the QB O'Brian would want. Is Brady a gunslinger? Does O'Brian want a gunslinger? Or a Brady? Which QB might, not will, be a Brady?
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Doesn't matter. If he takes another pocket passer, we're screwed.
 
thunderkyss said:
He doesn't know how to call plays to help protect them.
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OK, can't respond to this, But the QB I like in this draft, Peterman, although an under center, pro offense QB in college, seldom dropped straight back as a pocket passer. He ran sprint outs and play action.
 
Texansphan said:
I hope he has been working on his hands and has a nice turnaround and turns his second year into a career setter like AJ did.
Then, like you say, pray we have someone who can get the ball to him accurately on a regular basis.
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AJ's hands are bigger than Fuller's. That's the whole problem with Fuller and he can't change that! Yes, he can work on strengthening his hands and practice catching balls from a machine to get better but in the end I think the critical dropped balls, and that reputation, will always be with him. I hope I'm wrong on this.
 
Texansphan said:
Well so far in R1, that (assumed) strategy has worked pretty well for them - they have all been hits (under Smith) while the jury is still out on Fuller.
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In the first round a blind squirrel could draft like the Texans if not better. Based on the talent pool available in round 1 it's a lot more difficult to screw up a draft pick.
 
Texian said:
In the first round a blind squirrel could draft like the Texans if not better. Based on the talent pool available in round 1 it's a lot more difficult to screw up a draft pick.
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Only two teams did in this 5 year period.
9 out of 10 is a high standard. (Still on the team)(only Amobe Akoye is not on the team)
Find me 5 teams with a better "blind squirrel" percentage over the last 10. (Hint - there is only one - guess who it is before you click the link)
Not such a blind squirrel after all eh?
 
Texansphan said:
Only two teams did in this 5 year period.
9 out of 10 is a high standard. (Still on the team)(only Amobe Akoye is not on the team)
Find me 5 teams with a better "blind squirrel" percentage over the last 10. (Hint - there is only one - guess who it is before you click the link)
Not such a blind squirrel after all eh?
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When you consistently pick in the Top 15 you have a much greater chance for success. Also when you consistently pick in the Top 15 it means your team is void of the better players so the new drafted players have a better chance of long term success with a team picking in the Top 15.

It's all how you want to look at at and interpret the figures:
 
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Texian said:
When you consistently pick in the Top 15 you have a much greater chance for success. Also when you consistently pick in the Top 15 it means your team is void of the better players so the new drafted players have a better chance of long term success with a team picking in the Top 15.
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Yada, yada. What does that have to do with the Texans? The Texans average 1st round position the past 10 years is 17.3. They've been in the top 15 in 4 of 10 drafts. Clearly, you're not talking about the Texans when referring to consistently drafting in the top 15. What team are you speaking of?
 
Texian said:
"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience." Mark Twain
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I don't think you're stupid. I think you're deliberately misleading. So I'll just set the record straight.
 
Lucky said:
Yada, yada. What does that have to do with the Texans? The Texans average 1st round position the past 10 years is 17.3. They've been in the top 15 in 4 of 10 drafts. Clearly, you're not talking about the Texans when referring to consistently drafting in the top 15. What team are you speaking of?
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Texians "figure interpretation" method is a new one on me. Kinda like the math they teach in school these days - real head scratcher.
 
Texansphan said:
Only two teams did in this 5 year period.
9 out of 10 is a high standard. (Still on the team)(only Amobe Akoye is not on the team)
Find me 5 teams with a better "blind squirrel" percentage over the last 10. (Hint - there is only one - guess who it is before you click the link)
Not such a blind squirrel after all eh?
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Ricky does a good job of picking in the 1st rd. It's the mid rd picks that build successful rosters/teams.

Yes, Ricky drafts a few talented guys. But he doesn't have a clue when it comes to roster building. To make matters worse he keeps these guys on the roster that cant play. The Brandon Harris/Keith Mumphrey's of the world get to stay on the roster because they were draft picks. While guys like Marcus Williams are let go and go to other teams and become productive starters. Wendell Williams is an example of this yrs guy getting cut. He's better than Strong/Mumphrey. IMHO But they get to stay because they are draft picks,

So the numbers are skewed.
 
steelbtexan said:
Ricky does a good job of picking in the 1st rd. It's the mid rd picks that build successful rosters/teams.

Yes, Ricky drafts a few talented guys. But he doesn't have a clue when it comes to roster building. To make matters worse he keeps these guys on the roster that cant play. The Brandon Harris/Keith Mumphrey's of the world get to stay on the roster because they were draft picks. While guys like Marcus Williams are let go and go to other teams and become productive starters. Wendell Williams is an example of this yrs guy getting cut. He's better than Strong/Mumphrey. IMHO But they get to stay because they are draft picks,

So the numbers are skewed.
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Williams is a developmental player. What has he done in his opportunities during preseason/regular season to show he's better than those two?

I'm not as down on Strong as others. Think he's got potential with improved QB play and a clean bill of health.

All our skill players do actually!
 
steelbtexan said:
Wendell Williams is an example of this yrs guy getting cut. He's better than Strong/Mumphrey. IMHO But they get to stay because they are draft picks,
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Not trying to be funny or anything, but I haven't seen much of Wendell Williams on the field. Why do you say Williams is better than Mumphery?

Isn't it the coaches who decide who plays, & who don't? They're watching these guys all week & make the substitutions on Sunday.
 
Number19 said:
Should have is pointless. What do we do going forward? In this draft, who is the QB O'Brian wants. Not the QB you want. But the QB O'Brian would want. Is Brady a gunslinger? Does O'Brian want a gunslinger? Or a Brady? Which QB might, not will, be a Brady?
Click to expand...


I don't give a rats ass what QB OB wants , I think its doubtful he's here beyond the end of this season- The question is Which QB has the greatest potential to become a real difference maker , that can make those around him better .... We're going to have to project any QB taken this year in an unknown scheme when OB is sent packing. We need the best QB , scheme be damned.
 
thunderkyss said:
Not trying to be funny or anything, but I haven't seen much of Wendell Williams on the field. Why do you say Williams is better than Mumphery?

Isn't it the coaches who decide who plays, & who don't? They're watching these guys all week & make the substitutions on Sunday.
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Yes they decide who plays, it seems like draft picks curry favor with this org. Williams is better on ST's than Strong. Tell me what does Mumphrey/Strong add to the team that makes a difference? We're looking at yr 3 now so they need to get it done. I know what special Wendell Williams brings to the team.

I notice you didn't include Marcus Williams into the discussion.
 
Corrosion said:
I don't give a rats ass what QB OB wants , I think its doubtful he's here beyond the end of this season- The question is Which QB has the greatest potential to become a real difference maker , that can make those around him better .... We're going to have to project any QB taken this year in an unknown scheme when OB is sent packing. We need the best QB , scheme be damned.
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Agreed,

BOB will most likely be gone after this yr (Ricky is doing all he can to make that happen.) So now a new HC will be starting out with QB not of his own choosing. (Another brilliant idea.) And very Texan like.
 
steelbtexan said:
Yes they decide who plays, it seems like draft picks curry favor with this org. Williams is better on ST's than Strong. Tell me what does Mumphrey/Strong add to the team that makes a difference? We're looking at yr 3 now so they need to get it done. I know what special Wendell Williams brings to the team.

I notice you didn't include Marcus Williams into the discussion.
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Why would I include Marcus Williams?

I'm still unclear as to how Wendell is better than Mumph.
 
thunderkyss said:
Why would I include Marcus Williams?

I'm still unclear as to how Wendell is better than Mumph.
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Because we have to include every undrafted rookie that was cut after 3 months on the team and went on to do ok for another team regardless whether he would have been a top 4 player at his position on our team!
 
Number19 said:
OK, can't respond to this, But the QB I like in this draft, Peterman, although an under center, pro offense QB in college, seldom dropped straight back as a pocket passer. He ran sprint outs and play action.
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I don't dislike Peterman , just don't think he has the upside that one of the others do , namely Mahomes. At this point , I'd take a gamble on that upside and IF that gamble pays off you have a star at the position who can carry a team.

Peterman to me is much like Schaub .... better than serviceable but not able to put the team on his back and carry them He's not going to make a lot of mistakes either. If the rest of the pieces are in place , I think he can get you across the finish line.


I wouldn't be against taking both at this point.
 
steelbtexan said:
Oh, maybe because he turned out to be a great player and that wouldn't fit your narrative.
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You opined Wendell Williams was better than Mumphrey. I asked if you could expound on that.

Had you said Marcus Williams was better than Mumphrey I'd have asked you to explain that.

No narrative, I honestly want to know why you think Wendell Williams is better than Mumphrey.
 
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