Five moves each AFC South team should make this offseason
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/pag...-moves-afc-south-team-make-2017-nfl-offseason
1. Pick up Jadeveon Clowney's fifth-year option. This isn't quite as obvious as some of the other names from the 2014 draft, owing to Clowney's struggles to stay healthy. Clowney's fifth-year option for 2018 would be guaranteed for injury, so if he suffered a serious injury, the Texans could be on the hook for a player who can't really contribute. Clowney wasn't quite as productive in 2016 as his highlight reel might indicate -- he finished the year with 6.0 sacks and 17 quarterback hits, roughly in line with what
Akiem Hicks (seven sacks and 17 hits) accomplished -- but he's too devastating of a force on his best day for the Texans to decline a fifth cost-controlled season.
2. Trade the 25th pick to the Patriots for Jimmy Garoppolo. As I wrote about in the AFC East preview, the Texans make the most sense for Garoppolo. They have a coach in Bill O'Brien who is familiar with the scheme Garoppolo was running in New England. They're a win-now team with a huge need at quarterback. They have an asset that makes sense to deal for Garoppolo: It would be virtually unprecedented for a team to deal a top-five pick for a backup one year away from free agency, such as Garoppolo, so the 25th pick might be a better offer for the Patriots than one of the early second-rounders likely to come from the Browns or 49ers.
Garoppolo is also the most obvious upgrade the Texans can make, given their cap situation. With $26.7 million available this year and several starters needed on defense, Houston can afford to sign Garoppolo to an extension, which would essentially start next season. (They could give the Pats backup a signing bonus and spread it over the length of a four- or five-year deal.) Garoppolo's base salary can spike next year, once the Texans release
Brock Osweiler, who will presumably be chained to the bench after this deal occurs. Here's a possible Garoppolo deal, which ironically resembles Osweiler's contract, as a five-year, $100 million deal with $38 million guaranteed (and bolded):
Tom Savage is very good.
Tony Romo has major injury concerns and won't take this sort of contract. They could take a one-year flier on somebody like
Jay Cutler and hold onto their first-round pick, but if you don't trust this coaching staff to develop a young quarterback, you basically need to replace the staff. Garoppolo would be a defensible risk, even if the risk the Texans took on Osweiler failed.
If the bidding goes much further than the 25th pick, though, the Texans need to bow out. They can't trade a bunch of picks for Garoppolo. Maybe they could send a conditional late-round pick to the Patriots if Garoppolo makes the Pro Bowl, or they could trade a fifth-rounder for a player buried on another team's depth chart who might need a change of scenery. Beyond that, the Texans would be risking too much.
3. Re-sign A.J. Bouye and trade Johnathan Joseph for a draft pick. The Texans probably can't afford to re-sign Bouye, who is in line to make $12 million or so per year on the free market, while also retaining both Joseph and
Kareem Jackson. Houston can franchise Bouye for $14.3 million en route to a long-term deal for their budding superstar at corner, who will turn 26 just before the season.
The logical move, then, would be to trade Joseph, who is entering the final year of his deal at a very reasonable cap hit ($6.9 million) as he turns 33. Joseph is still playing at a high level, but the Texans probably don't want to be in the business of betting on cornerbacks as they enter their mid-30s, as the sudden fall of
Darrelle Revis should remind onlookers. If Bouye leaves, chances are that the Texans will be looking for a cornerback across from Jackson by 2018.
4. Lock up DeAndre Hopkins. Busy offseason, huh? The Texans obviously want to bring back their star wide receiver, who had a frustrating 2016 while dealing with Osweiler. The good news is the disappointing season might bring his demands down on a long-term contract; the Texans will probably be able to buy relatively low on their former first-round pick as he enters the fifth and final year of his rookie deal.
Quintin Demps hitting free agency and
Vince Wilfork likely retiring. They probably can't afford to make all of these moves and go after veterans at nose tackle and safety. They might wait out the market to sign a veteran such as Terrance Knighton for cheap, but general manager Rick Smith will probably have to target regular contributors in the draft and hope that the star-laden defense surrounding those holes can cover for the rookies.
