I disagree with this - at least most of the time.
Look at the bad 1st round QB picks - even under the current CBA - and see what happened.
Jake Locker was drafted in 2011, and still starting games for the Titans in his fourth season (2014), Blaine Gabbert was drafted the same year, and was still the starter on opening day of his third season. Christian Ponder went into his third season in the league as the Vikings starter, and ended up starting most of the games that he was healthy enough to do so. I'm more and more thinking that Blake Bortles may end up in this same category, but it's a virtual certainty that even if that's the case, he'll go into his fourth season as the Jags starter. RGIII would have been the same in DC if they hadn't been smart or lucky enough to draft Cousins - and the jury is still somewhat out on that one. Assuming Jared Goff is ultimately a wash-out for the Rams, is that something they'll end up moving on from after the 2017 season? My guess is it's not.
The one thing that should be certain with Osweiler is what to do with him after year two. That's why I'm against starting Savage or Weeden any time soon, because even though it's looking more and more like a risk that won't pan out, the Texans have put themselves in a position where two years is the max this can go on, and I simply don't believe that would be the case with most high first round QB picks.