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ProFootballFocus -- Mariota vs. Winston: By the Numbers
Good time to post this.The new College Football Playoff has presented us with a great matchup of two of the last two Heisman Trophy winners as Oregons Marcus Mariota squares off against Florida States Jameis Winston on New Years night at the Rose Bowl. At PFF weve been diving into the college game this season so what better way to preview the game than by looking at two of the nations best quarterbacks? Not only are Mariota and Winston excellent college players, theyre both expected to become top picks in the NFL Draft. Heres a look at how the two quarterbacks shaped up with regard to stats and grades.
Note: * All grades are normalized by situation, meaning theyre graded in comparison to other college quarterbacks in a similar situation.
Overall
We have to start with the caveat that Mariota and Winston play in completely different systems so its not always apples to apples when comparing them. That said, as always, the PFF grades take into account the quarterbacks actual contribution on each play by evaluating their decision making, throw location, throw difficulty, and everything else that goes into a given play. Heres a broad look at Mariota and Winston this season.
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Under Pressure
The first thing that stands out is that Mariota has attempted about half as many passes as Winston when pressured. Both players have performed fairly well, but Mariotas +12.5 grade and 11.7 yards per attempt stand out. Winston held his own, particularly given the unrest at the center position throughout the season. Prior to an offensive line overhaul in Week 12, Winston faced pressure through the center on 30 drop-backs, and as weve shown in the past, pressure through the A-gap is the worst kind of pressure for a quarterback.
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No Pressure
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vs. Blitz
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No Blitz
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Play Action
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Rollouts
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Scrambles
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Running Game
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By Route
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Passing Charts
Again, the visual speaks for itself. Winston has made some of his questionable decisions on throws down the field while Mariota has graded extremely well on passes to the intermediate and deep ranges. The question about the Oregon offense is how many of those throws were made into tight coverage. (click to enlarge)
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Big Throws vs. Risky Throws
It may not be the best way to describe the throws, but the beauty of the PFF grading system is the ability to separate the various types of throws each quarterbacks makes. For lack of better terms, the big throws are the highest-graded throws when factoring in difficulty of the throw and ball location while the risky throws are those which are deemed as poor decisions or poor enough ball location that they should become turnovers, regardless of whether or not they were intercepted.
The further to the right on the chart, the higher percentage of big-time throws while the higher up on the chart, the lower the percentage of risky throws. Weve included some NFL comparisons from this year just to show where each quarterback stacks up. The upper right of the chart is the desired area (high percentage of big throws/low risky throws) while the upper left is more of a safe region (think Alex Smith), while the lower right is more of a high risk/high reward region (think Andrew Luck) and the lower left is the worst place to be.
Heres a look at Mariota and Winston in this context (click to enlarge):
*Important to remember this is just a small percentage of throws and only represent the extreme ends of the grading spectrum. It is a good way to measure the risk/reward nature of a players performance.
