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ProFootballFocus -- Mariota vs. Winston: By the Numbers

Playoffs

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ProFootballFocus -- Mariota vs. Winston: By the Numbers
The new College Football Playoff has presented us with a great matchup of two of the last two Heisman Trophy winners as Oregon’s Marcus Mariota squares off against Florida State’s Jameis Winston on New Year’s night at the Rose Bowl. At PFF we’ve been diving into the college game this season so what better way to preview the game than by looking at two of the nation’s best quarterbacks? Not only are Mariota and Winston excellent college players, they’re both expected to become top picks in the NFL Draft. Here’s a look at how the two quarterbacks shaped up with regard to stats and grades.

Note: * All grades are normalized by situation, meaning they’re graded in comparison to other college quarterbacks in a similar situation.​

Overall

We have to start with the caveat that Mariota and Winston play in completely different systems so it’s not always apples to apples when comparing them. That said, as always, the PFF grades take into account the quarterback’s actual contribution on each play by evaluating their decision making, throw location, throw difficulty, and everything else that goes into a given play. Here’s a broad look at Mariota and Winston this season.

mvw-overall.png


Under Pressure

The first thing that stands out is that Mariota has attempted about half as many passes as Winston when pressured. Both players have performed fairly well, but Mariota’s +12.5 grade and 11.7 yards per attempt stand out. Winston held his own, particularly given the unrest at the center position throughout the season. Prior to an offensive line overhaul in Week 12, Winston faced pressure through the center on 30 drop-backs, and as we’ve shown in the past, pressure through the A-gap is the worst kind of pressure for a quarterback.
...

No Pressure
...

vs. Blitz
...

No Blitz
...

Play Action
...

Rollouts
...

Scrambles
...

Running Game
...

By Route
...

Passing Charts

Again, the visual speaks for itself. Winston has made some of his questionable decisions on throws down the field while Mariota has graded extremely well on passes to the intermediate and deep ranges. The question about the Oregon offense is how many of those throws were made into tight coverage. (click to enlarge)
...

Big Throws vs. Risky Throws

It may not be the best way to describe the throws, but the beauty of the PFF grading system is the ability to separate the various types of throws each quarterbacks makes. For lack of better terms, the “big throws” are the highest-graded throws when factoring in difficulty of the throw and ball location while the “risky throws” are those which are deemed as poor decisions or poor enough ball location that they should become turnovers, regardless of whether or not they were intercepted.

The further to the right on the chart, the higher percentage of big-time throws while the higher up on the chart, the lower the percentage of risky throws. We’ve included some NFL comparisons from this year just to show where each quarterback stacks up. The upper right of the chart is the desired area (high percentage of big throws/low risky throws) while the upper left is more of a safe region (think Alex Smith), while the lower right is more of a high risk/high reward region (think Andrew Luck) and the lower left is the worst place to be.

Here’s a look at Mariota and Winston in this context (click to enlarge):

*Important to remember this is just a small percentage of throws and only represent the extreme ends of the grading spectrum. It is a good way to measure the risk/reward nature of a player’s performance.​
Good time to post this. :brando:
 
What is it supposed to show under "Blitz" "No Blitz", etc.

I only see " ... "

EDIT: Sorry, I overlooked "clicked to enlarge". This post can be disregarded.
 
Pretty much confirms my thoughts about Winston being overrated.

Mariota comes out of that looking better than I thought he would.
 
What is it supposed to show under "Blitz" "No Blitz", etc.

I only see " ... "

You have to click through to their site. I get permission to post some stuff, but otherwise I can only post snippets. They've been tweeting this out so I thought they may have moved it to the non-pay side of their site. (I can't always tell because I subscribe). My bad if you can't access it. :tiphat:
 
Pretty much confirms my thoughts about Winston being overrated.

Mariota comes out of that looking better than I thought he would.

Based on the failures we've seen at the QB position in the NFL based on personality types and commitment challenges, I just don't see why any team would invest a high draft pick in Winston and likely waste several years seeing if he can become the franchise player you need at the QB position. I'm not saying that it can't happen with him, but he has far to many signs and indicators that it would be a failed project. I wouldn't touch that guy.
 
Still not convinced Mariota is the man? Stubborn.

Him and Teddy have been the best 2 QBS to come out lately.
 
Refocused: Rose Bowl: Seminoles vs. Ducks
The inaugural college football playoff game started as an exciting back-and-forth affair, but Florida State’s turnover-prone second half combined with Oregon’s quick-strike offense made for a runaway effort in favor of the Ducks. Quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston were the top storyline coming in, – we looked into them in detail here – and they had ups and downs of their own. Mariota overcame a rough start while Winston hung tough while trying to keep Florida State close, but he’ll likely be most remembered for his fumble that led to a touchdown late in the third quarter.

The game was more than the quarterbacks, however, and Oregon’s offensive line deserves credit for a dominant performance. They had their way in the running game and in pass protection and their ability to control the line of scrimmage proved to be the difference in the game.

Oregon moves on to face Ohio State in next week’s national championship game.

Here’s a look at the key performances from the first ever college football playoff game.

Florida State Seminoles – Performances of Note

Jameis Winston, QB: +1.1

Breakdown: Florida State’s second-half collapse had little to do with Winston who played extremely well for the most part aside from a few missed throws and of course the fumble blunder. But even then, the fumble came on fourth down when he was trying to extend a play, so a fumble is not a disastrous outcome (the resulting return for a touchdown is, but that has more to do with the bounce of the ball) and his one interception came on a batted pass that was subsequently dropped. The one pass that should have been intercepted (Q2 6:44) was dropped in the end zone, so perhaps things even out in that area.

Where Winston shined was in his accuracy to the intermediate middle of the field where he did a great job of exploiting some of Oregon’s soft zone coverages. He consistently led his receivers to open grass and showed excellent ball placement on a number of dig and post routes. Whether squeezing it into tight windows as he did at Q1 5:31 or his quick read and release at Q2 7:10 on the post, Winston was at his best when throwing between the hashes.

Signature Plays: On passes thrown in between the numbers (much wider area in college than the NFL), Winston completed 20-of-28 passes for 246 yards and a +2.9 PFF grade.
...

Oregon Ducks – Performances of Note

Marcus Mariota, QB: -1.4

Breakdown: It was a shaky outing for Mariota as a passer as he was inaccurate throughout the game and put the ball in harm’s way twice, one of which resulted in an interception. His near-INT at the 10:21 mark of the second quarter was a poor decision as he threw back across his body to the middle of the field but safety Jalen Ramsey was unable to haul in the errant pass. His actual interception at the 0:23 second mark of the second quarter was simply an overthrow on a crossing route that found safety Nate Andrews.

As for the good, ESPN did a nice job of highlighting Mariota’s read on his touchdown at the 6:53 mark of the second quarter as Mariota zipped the pass in between the cornerback and the safety to allow WR Devon Carrington to make a cut and take it 56 yards to the end zone. Mariota then showed his great touch on a 30-yard touchdown to Carrington (Q3 4:29), this time putting the ball in a spot that allowed Carrington to do work after the catch. As usual, Mariota was a weapon on the ground and he topped off Oregon’s impressive effort by beating Casher on the edge for his 23-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter.

Mariota finished at -2.4 as a passer and +0.9 as a runner.

Signature Stats: Of Mariota’s 338 passing yards, 243 came after the catch (72% of his total). He was 11-of-12 for 76 yards on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
...
 
I like both of them. They are different. But I like both.

I'd be happy if we could somehow get either one. I'd trade up for either one.
 
Rich Cimini ‏@RichCimini
ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer says no comparison between Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston -- Winston more pro-ready. (@ESPNNY98_7FM).


If you want my opinion, more pro ready doesn't mean pro ready.

I would have no problem drafting either of these guys 1 & 2. But I would come out like the Jags & straight up tell the world, this guy isn't playing in 2015. If I were Tampa Bay I'd keep McGloin & McCown as my QBs for 2015. If I were Tennessee, Mettenberger & Whitehurst get the whole season.

While Mariota & Winston may very well could have Russell Wilson/RGIII type seasons, I don't think either team is strong enough to support them & start winning now.

Mariota would spend the season running the scout team focusing on mechanics. Winston would spend the season on the scout team focusing on maturity.

Of course, if they blow me away in OTAs & camp, they blow me away in OTAs & camp and I may have to adjust my plans. But from the get go I'd try to alleviate the pressure to start them early, like the Jags did with Bortles.
 
If you want my opinion, more pro ready doesn't mean pro ready.

I would have no problem drafting either of these guys 1 & 2. But I would come out like the Jags & straight up tell the world, this guy isn't playing in 2015. If I were Tampa Bay I'd keep McGloin & McCown as my QBs for 2015. If I were Tennessee, Mettenberger & Whitehurst get the whole season.

While Mariota & Winston may very well could have Russell Wilson/RGIII type seasons, I don't think either team is strong enough to support them & start winning now.

Mariota would spend the season running the scout team focusing on mechanics. Winston would spend the season on the scout team focusing on maturity.

Of course, if they blow me away in OTAs & camp, they blow me away in OTAs & camp and I may have to adjust my plans. But from the get go I'd try to alleviate the pressure to start them early, like the Jags did with Bortles.

They are all so different & unique. Depends on each's situation. Teams drafting first, unless your the Texans, usually really suck for a reason. Get what your saying, have to put it into a time capsule then have a safe re-entry but I wouldn't call what happened to Bortles, after all the sit him out year talk then throwing into the Coliseum, exactly a safe entry.

This is my take. Winston is more Pro Ready for a QB starved inefficiently run franchise. Meaning he can cover up a lot of wort's, has size & gamesmanship that are NFL worthy. Mariota is like an ugly duckling, no pun intended, that will evolve into a total wrecking machine in system that utilizes speed, from the offensive line, to backs, TE's & receivers.
 
If you want my opinion, more pro ready doesn't mean pro ready.

I would have no problem drafting either of these guys 1 & 2. But I would come out like the Jags & straight up tell the world, this guy isn't playing in 2015. If I were Tampa Bay I'd keep McGloin & McCown as my QBs for 2015. If I were Tennessee, Mettenberger & Whitehurst get the whole season.

While Mariota & Winston may very well could have Russell Wilson/RGIII type seasons, I don't think either team is strong enough to support them & start winning now.

Mariota would spend the season running the scout team focusing on mechanics. Winston would spend the season on the scout team focusing on maturity.

Of course, if they blow me away in OTAs & camp, they blow me away in OTAs & camp and I may have to adjust my plans. But from the get go I'd try to alleviate the pressure to start them early, like the Jags did with Bortles.

Bortles started all but three games.
 
Bortles started all but three games.

Right. But just about everyone believed he was going to be redshirted between the draft & his first start. I could be wrong, but there was no pressure to start him, that was a coaching decision (a bad one imo) based on what they saw in him & where they saw their team at that time.

Tampa & Tennessee need to come out with that kind of approach so they can make the decision to start or not to start based on what they see in camp, where they believe there team is, & what their goals are for the year.

Jacksonville's primary focus changed from winning games to developing their QB in week 4. Tampa still had a shot at the play offs in week 12.
 

Is Mariota riskier than Winston?

Talented Oregon QB will need to translate his unique skill set to the NFL
Todd McShay | ESPN Insider

Let's take a look at what Mariota does well, where he needs to improve and why by April 30 I think he could be viewed as a bigger risk than Winston at the top of the draft.

1. Mariota is exceptional at doing what Oregon asks him to do.

He does such a good job of running the Ducks' offense, which is the fastest I've ever seen. His communication skills and command of the offense have to be excellent -- sometimes it's only four to five seconds between the time the play is called in and the ball is snapped.

It's also very impressive to me how quickly -- yet calmly -- he goes through Oregon's reads. Whether it's reading the defensive end on a zone-read option play, or reading multiple defenders when deciding whether to throw the bubble screen or seam route, he often goes through three reads inside of two seconds. Now, to be clear: These aren't NFL-style reads. But how fast he gets through them is a positive sign in projecting whether he'd be able to do the same with NFL reads once he gets to the next level, and it's one of many examples of his outstanding natural football acumen.

2. He also has many of the tools you look for in a prototypical NFL QB.

Mariota has NFL arm strength with the height to see the entire field, and he is also very comfortable going through his progressions in the pocket and displays good accuracy on throws when his receivers are either open or facing him.

3. The problem is that Oregon hasn't asked him to do many of the things his NFL team will.

The more I study Mariota's Oregon tape, the harder it is for me to find throws that translate to the NFL game. When I went back and charted his passes from the FSU game, screens, dump-offs and scrambles were more common than the type of downfield throws required by NFL offenses.

It's not that he never makes those throws (and there's no question that whichever NFL team drafts him can incorporate a heavy diet of rollouts, screens and high-percentage throws to play to his strengths), but it's hard to find too many of those on tape, and his success rate isn't great on them.

In the NFL, receivers aren't open the way they are in college. In college, an open receiver is often either uncovered or clear of a defender by at least a few yards. In the NFL, "open" more often than not means the quarterback anticipated the receiver's move and got the ball out in time to the proper spot, as the receiver broke free.

I liken it to playing catch with a buddy who is standing 30 yards away in the backyard. A lot of college QBs could hit a receiver right in the chest with 100 out of 100 passes. Good NFL QBs need to be able to pick out a spot where the ball needs to be placed -- based off of who the receiver is, where he's running, the position of the defender(s) and the wind conditions, etc. -- and then deliver the pass exactly to that spot, often with multiple pass-rushers, as well. When Mariota has been asked to make those kinds of throws at Oregon, he hasn't been quite as accurate as one would like him to be.

4. Mariota does have the potential to improve -- and his athleticism could carry him in the meantime.

To be clear, I do think Mariota has the tools to develop in the NFL. Quarterbacks can improve their accuracy. Tom Brady is way more accurate in New England than he ever was at Michigan. But the list of guys who have gone from Mariota's situation of not having to make a lot of accurate, anticipatory throws to becoming good at it at the NFL level isn't a long one.

This was the biggest concern I had about Colin Kaepernick's game when he was coming out (I gave him a second-round grade). Kaepernick enjoyed early-career success because of play calling that maximized his mobility and a strong supporting cast, but his play regressed this season after opponents had more time to study and adjust to his tendencies. In fairness, I think Mariota is more consistently accurate in the throws he makes than Kaepernick was at the same point in his career. But concerns still exist.

On the positive side, Cam Newton has shown some slight improvement, and Alex Smith has gotten better at it throughout his career. Michael Vick never fully overcame this issue, but he got better and produced some high-level play at different points during his career.

The good news for Mariota is that he has elite athleticism for the position, which he can lean on as he works to improve his pocket passing. He is tremendous at extending plays with his feet, with Kaepernick-level straight-line speed as well as some of the elusiveness and uncanny feel for pass rushers (and defenders in the open field when running) that we see from Russell Wilson.

If he started a game in the NFL tomorrow, he'd be a top-five running threat at the position. And as mentioned above, the concerns about him as a passer aren't physical; he has the size to see the field and arm strength to make any NFL throw.

If there weren't off-field concerns with Winston, he would be the clear-cut No. 1 prospect and No. 1 overall pick in this draft. He still might be, depending on how QB-needy teams picking at the top of the draft (notably Tampa Bay at No. 1 and Tennessee at No. 2) ultimately feel about him from a character and psychological standpoint, but that's the big risk associated with him right now. From a talent and production standpoint, Winston is elite.

However, I think that for all the reasons I mentioned above related to Mariota's lack of experience and success making NFL-style throws, teams could end up viewing Mariota as a bigger risk than Winston.

What the Bucs, Titans, Redskins (No. 5 pick), Jets (No. 6 pick) and any team considering trading up to draft a QB need to ultimately decide is this: Which QB is more likely to become a bust? Because right now I don't think many evaluators can honestly say a team has a better chance of winning a game tomorrow with Mariota under center rather than Winston. Can Winston avoid trouble off the field in the long term, from a maturity standpoint, to not embarrass the franchise? When one gives a guy more free time, more money and more fame than he has ever had, the track record shows they tend to not respond well.

But ultimately, teams could very well decide that Mariota's on-field issues (he has outstanding intangibles) are a bigger concern. I think he absolutely has the tools and potential to develop into a very good NFL quarterback, but teams are going to have to gamble on him being able to get better in a lot of areas in which he hasn't had much experience or great success to this point.
 

Is Mariota riskier than Winston?

Talented Oregon QB will need to translate his unique skill set to the NFL
Todd McShay | ESPN Insider
This was the biggest concern I had about Colin Kaepernick's game when he was coming out (I gave him a second-round grade). Kaepernick enjoyed early-career success because of play calling that maximized his mobility and a strong supporting cast, but his play regressed this season after opponents had more time to study and adjust to his tendencies. In fairness, I think Mariota is more consistently accurate in the throws he makes than Kaepernick was at the same point in his career. But concerns still exist.

On the positive side, Cam Newton has shown some slight improvement, and Alex Smith has gotten better at it throughout his career. Michael Vick never fully overcame this issue, but he got better and produced some high-level play at different points during his career.

The good news for Mariota is that he has elite athleticism for the position, which he can lean on as he works to improve his pocket passing. He is tremendous at extending plays with his feet, with Kaepernick-level straight-line speed as well as some of the elusiveness and uncanny feel for pass rushers (and defenders in the open field when running) that we see from Russell Wilson.

So these are the guys McShay compares Mariota too? Interesting.
 
Chris Landry consults for NFL teams and sat in on multiple Combine interviews with Mariota and Winson... his bio: http://landryfootball.com/about-chris/

Winston weighed 252 in Bowl game, got up to 266 lbs before dropping to 231 for Combine.

Personally asked NFL decision-makers for their on-field, multiple game tape evaluation. Excluded Bucs and Titans for obvious reasons, and Chip Kelly.

Winston camp

Coaches: Mike Shula, Joe Philbin, Marty Morningwig, Hue Jackson, Jedd Fisch, Frank Reich

GM types: Doug Whaley, Ryan Grigson, Dave Caldwell, Scot McCloughan​

Mariota camp

Coaches: Sean Payton, Darrell Bevell, Gary Kubiak, Bill O'Brien(prefers Petty over both), Pep Hamilton, Doug Pedersen, Andy Reid, Bill Lazor, Tom Clements, Norv Turner, Mike McCarthy, Josh McDaniels, Bruce Arians, Jeff Fisher

GM types: Les Snead, Steve Keim, Trent Baalke, Jon Schneider, Ted Thompson, Ozzie Newsome, Jerry Reese, Kevin Colbert, Tom Telesco​

1) Landry "feels better" about both prospects after seeing them in Combine interviews, and 2) Disclaimer is they(coaches/GMs) could all be lying to him.

Audio here: http://www.620wdae.com/media/podcas...hris-landry-goes-indepth-on-winston-25849582/


Really interesting snapshot at how different league decision-makers think.
 
O'Brien likes Petty over both Mariota and Winston?

Right.

I hope to high heavens that is a smoke screened indication that we are looking to trade up for Mariota.
 
O'Brien likes Petty over both Mariota and Winston?

Right.

I hope to high heavens that is a smoke screened indication that we are looking to trade up for Mariota.

smokescreen maybe, not a chance we trade up high enough to get Mariota
 
Mariota was phenomenal in his interviews...

knew everybody's name who was related to team in any way

not a quiet, shrinking violet type guy at all but more a

steely eyed, rip your heart out of your chest competitor

great understanding of the game, great on grease board, very high floor

had a lot of freedom to call/adjust plays at line of scrimmage​


Winston more frenetic, excited mind... hyperactive/high energy guy

straightforwardly addressed all off field incidents except the sexual assault allegation... wasn't perfect in owning everything, but okay except on latter

good on greaseboard as seen

wears you out as a coach, still he makes you want to coach him

only input he had on playcalling is when he ignored what was called and just freelanced

Slightly higher ceiling, McShay full of sh!t comparing him to Luck



So Mariota is really more like Russell Wilson. Quiet mind, singular focus, assassin.

Winston to me exhibits ADHD tendencies that translates to his game. Poor decisions at times, but then turns around and saves the day. Quick mind, sometimes too quick, hero plays.
 
So Mariota is really more like Russell Wilson. Quiet mind, singular focus, assassin.

Winston to me exhibits ADHD tendencies that translates to his game. Poor decisions at times, but then turns around and saves the day. Quick mind, sometimes too quick, hero plays.

Nice summation. Thanks!
 
Mariota looks like his floor could be Alex Smith. And if that's the worst case scenario then he's definitely worth a look.

I'm sticking to my guns on Winston. On-field decision making is horrendous and he is getting way too much credit for things that he doesn't deserve.
 
Mariota looks like his floor could be Alex Smith. And if that's the worst case scenario then he's definitely worth a look.

I'm sticking to my guns on Winston. On-field decision making is horrendous and he is getting way too much credit for things that he doesn't deserve.

My biggest negative on Winston (& I haven't spent a lot of time looking at QBs) is that he's only been a starter for two years. Kid's naturally talented, you can see that plain as day. He's got experience working under center, three step drops, five... turning his back to the defense, getting back around quick... but after two years, what do we know? As a freshman, maybe teams overlooked him. Maybe actually seeing him on the field is totally different than watching tape. So it took them a year to "adjust." Then, with his newfound stardom, did he put in the work to maintain a high level of play?

Year three would have told us a lot more about what we're getting. Right now, he's a risky pick. But he's got the physical traits, the obvious talent, & he's played with some of the best in the nation against some of the best in the nation. Definitely a first round pick, but this isn't Cam Newton #1 pick, or Matthew Stafford/Phillip Rivers #1. IF the Texans had this pick, I wouldn't be pushing for a QB.

Mariota. Good, clean boy. Three year starter. But he's never turned his back to the defense. Never took a snap under center. Never timed his throws the way you would in the NFL. Never called protection. Never identified the MIKE. He's probably going to be totally unprepared for tight NFL coverages. But year after year, expectations grew & grew & he answered. Again, I would not be pushing to take him with the #1 overall pick.


That said.... how many blue chips are in this draft? Leonard Williams? Kevin White? Dante Fowler? Vic Beasely?

If I'm Tampa Bay especially, I'm asking myself who is most likely to make my team better over the next 5 years. & if I want to spend the #1 overall pick on someone to hand over to Dirk Koetter? right now, I'm thinking no.
 
"The latest I'm hearing now from my sources around the league, who are pretty wired in, is that [Mariota is] going to go number one now to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ," said Jaworski.

"Mariota's stock, remember it was quiet for a while? And there's a reason for that. There's a lull every year until about 30 days before the draft. Now the coaches get involved. Prior to that, it's the scouts, it's the roadies that are filling out the paper work. Now the coaches get involved. Now team owners get involved. Now general managers get involved. So you're starting to see, in my opinion, Winston's stock starting to slide a little bit and Mariota's stock starting to go up a little bit."
...

"I'll give you a little bit of information on how much Chip Kelly loves Marcus Mariota," said Jaworski. "This is the time of year when everyone talks, and I talk to general managers, I've talked to player personnel directors, and I've heard it from a couple or three people that have had conversations with Chip Kelly, and Chip Kelly said, 'Marcus Mariota will win multiple Super Bowls in the National Football League.'

"Now, he didn't say it was going to be in Philadelphia (laughs), but that's how much he loves this guy, and a lot of people feel the same way, that Marcus Mariota is that good that you can win multiple Super Bowls with him as your quarterback."

Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/04/11/jaws-mariotas-stock-is-rising/#xrQKjS50vQ3UqPsz.99

Why Mike Mayock Feels Mariota Is Best QB In Draft
For the better part of the last three months, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock had Jameis Winston as his top-rated quarterback in the draft, just ahead of Marcus Mariota.

But last week... Mayock had a change of heart and moved Mariota ahead of Winston...
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...-Is-Best-QB-In-Draft.html#Z1yDZ85ItQJqmK1F.99

:thinking:
 
Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/04/11/jaws-mariotas-stock-is-rising/#xrQKjS50vQ3UqPsz.99
"Mariota's stock, remember it was quiet for a while? And there's a reason for that. There's a lull every year until about 30 days before the draft. Now the coaches get involved. Prior to that, it's the scouts, it's the roadies that are filling out the paper work. Now the coaches get involved. Now team owners get involved. Now general managers get involved. So you're starting to see, in my opinion, Winston's stock starting to slide a little bit and Mariota's stock starting to go up a little bit."
...

This makes sense to me. Always has. I never understood the guys who thinks a player's "ranking" or "grade" shouldn't change after the last day of the season, when that is the time that the people who will be selecting them starts to look at them. Before that, it's just the scouts writing reports & grading each player on an individual (or regional at the most) basis.

I'm sure they'll get it close, but then the coaches come in & fine tune things... or the GM actually starts ranking them after looking at the whole picture.

Read more at http://www.phillymag.com/birds247/2015/04/11/jaws-mariotas-stock-is-rising/#xrQKjS50vQ3UqPsz.99
"I'll give you a little bit of information on how much Chip Kelly loves Marcus Mariota," said Jaworski. "This is the time of year when everyone talks, and I talk to general managers, I've talked to player personnel directors, and I've heard it from a couple or three people that have had conversations with Chip Kelly, and Chip Kelly said, 'Marcus Mariota will win multiple Super Bowls in the National Football League.'

IMO, a person can only say this based on his intangibles. The game Mariota has played up to this point is not the pro game... it's very different. Just like people said JFF wouldn't translate to the NFL, to me, it's the same with Mariota. Yeah, he might be a little more mature, more goal oriented, but those are intangibles.

I have no problem with a team taking Mariota first overall. To me, it would be similar to taking Cam Newton #1 overall. More so than taking Matt Stafford #1 overall.
 
...IMO, a person can only say this based on his intangibles. The game Mariota has played up to this point is not the pro game... it's very different. Just like people said JFF wouldn't translate to the NFL, to me, it's the same with Mariota. Yeah, he might be a little more mature, more goal oriented, but those are intangibles.

I have no problem with a team taking Mariota first overall. To me, it would be similar to taking Cam Newton #1 overall. More so than taking Matt Stafford #1 overall.

You could be right. But the difference is that Mariota does possess the tangibles that could translate to the NFL, they are just undeveloped. Manziel did not possess those. His entire hype was built around intangibles.

I think you are definitely right on the last comment. Mariota does not fit the prototypical mold the way that Stafford did. He's more like Newton. Over time you could mold him to be more traditional, but he'll have to grow into it.
 
Mariota's TD to INT ratio, coupled with his ability to evade a rush should make you feel warm and fuzzy on the inside.
 
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